Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

6 min read1 figure0 tables22 notesNR-COUNTRY-SEN-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Senegal’s risk runs through its rivers, its coast and its fuel
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Climate forcing
    3. 2.3 Energy
    4. 2.4 Water
    5. 2.5 Food
    6. 2.6 Health
    7. 2.7 Biodiversity
    8. 2.8 Finance
    9. 2.9 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Urban flood with a water, power and clinic interruption
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-SEN-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005

In 2024, 88.0% of people in Senegal used at least basic drinking water, but only 27.2% used safely managed water and 13.2% in rural areas; 62.5% used at least basic sanitation and 30.1% used safely managed sanitation.

Figure 2.1Water and sanitation services, 2024 (% of people)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Basic drinking water88.0
Safely managed drinking water27.2
Basic sanitation62.5
Safely managed sanitation30.1

Source: World Bank WDI, series drawn from the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme5.

Implication

Basic access hides how many people drink water or use sanitation that is not safe. A flood, a power cut or a pipe failure reaches those people first, and so the water finding links to the climate and energy systems. Reading the finding by region matters, and a regional split is not bound in this edition5.

What would move it

The next Joint Monitoring Programme update, regional household survey results, and the Dakar supply figures would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-SEN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

    Greenhouse-gas emissions were about 31.7 Mt CO₂e in 2024 excluding land use: carbon dioxide 14.2 Mt, methane 12.3 Mt and nitrous oxide 3.7 Mt; agriculture supplied 9.4 Mt of the methane. Land use was a net carbon-dioxide sink of 13 Mt in 2023.7

  2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-SEN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

    The 2020 contribution targets a 2030 cut of 7% unconditional and 29.5% conditional below business as usual. A third contribution was validated nationally on 5 April 2026 with a reported range of 13 to 17%; its submission was not confirmed at evidence close.161718

  3. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-SEN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-011

    The 2025 rainy season killed 20 people, affected 8,336 and destroyed 946 ha of farmland. The World Bank estimates a drought year costs US$500 million, annual flood damage about US$100 million, and coastal erosion 3.3% of GDP.192425

2.3Energy

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-SEN-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003

    Access to electricity was 82.9% in 2024, up from 67.9% in 2022, with 95.7% in urban and 67.1% in rural areas; transmission and distribution losses were 16.5% of output.6

  2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-SEN-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004

    Installed capacity was 1,901 MW in 2024, of which 481 MW was renewable; 85% of 2023 generation was non-renewable, and imports were 70% of primary energy supply in 2022. Sangomar produced 36.1 million barrels of oil in 2025 and Grand Tortue Ahmeyim began LNG production in February 2025.142627

2.4Water

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-SEN-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005

    In 2024, 88.0% of people used at least basic drinking water but 27.2% used safely managed water, 13.2% in rural areas; 62.5% used basic sanitation and 30.1% safely managed sanitation.5

  2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-SEN-2026-BASELINE-WAT-006

    Freshwater withdrawals were 11.9% of internal resources in 2022 and renewable internal water was 1,462 m³ per person; the World Bank projects withdrawals to grow 30% to 60% by 2035, with 81% for irrigation.519

2.5Food

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-SEN-2026-BASELINE-FOO-007

    The 2024 cereal harvest was forecast at 3.8 million tonnes, 8% above the five-year average. The March 2026 Cadre Harmonisé projected 836,786 people in Crisis or worse for June to August 2026, and 27.7% of people faced moderate or severe food insecurity in 2024.102021

2.6Health

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-SEN-2026-BASELINE-HLT-008

    WHO counted 358 confirmed human cases and 28 deaths of Rift Valley fever in Senegal between 20 September and 30 October 2025, 78% of them in the Saint-Louis region; life expectancy at birth was 68.9 years in 2024.922

2.7Biodiversity

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-SEN-2026-BASELINE-BIO-009

    Forest covered 45.0% of land in 2024, down from 45.4% in 2019; 27.5% of land and 3.1% of territorial waters were protected in 2025. Mangrove extent and ecosystem threat status are not bound.851

2.8Finance

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-SEN-2026-BASELINE-FIN-010

    Real GDP grew 6.7% in 2025 while non-hydrocarbon growth was 2.2%; the fiscal deficit narrowed from 13.4% to 6.4% of GDP, and the IMF DataMapper series puts gross debt at 127.7% of GDP.111213

2.9Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-SEN-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a heavy-rain flood in a dense urban area that interrupts water, power and clinics at the same time. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: drinking-water, sanitation and freshwater series, Senegal (observation years 2022–2024), drawn from the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme and FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: greenhouse-gas emissions by gas and sector and land-use fluxes, Senegal (observation years 2023–2024). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 16Government of Senegal (ed.), Contribution déterminée au niveau national du Sénégal, document dated December 2020. Submission document hosted by the UNFCCC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 17allAfrica (ed.), “Sénégal: Lutte contre le changement climatique – Le Sénégal valide sa troisième Contribution déterminée,” 6 April 2026 (observation year 2026). allAfrica, Dakar desk. Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 18Le Soleil (ed.), “Lutte contre le changement climatique: le Sénégal valide sa troisième contribution déterminée,” 6 April 2026 (observation year 2026). Le Soleil, Dakar. Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 19World Bank (ed.), Senegal Country Climate and Development Report, Executive Summary (observation year 2024, published October 2024). World Bank Group, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 24Ministry of Hydraulics and Sanitation (ed.), national evaluation workshop on the 2025 rainy season, 16 December 2025, as reported by allAfrica, “Inondations: plus de 10 millions de m³ d’eau pompés en 2025” (observation year 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 25Sud Quotidien (ed.), report on the 2025 rainy-season evaluation, 17 December 2025, distributed by allAfrica (observation year 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: access to electricity, electric power consumption and transmission losses, Senegal (observation years 2022–2024). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 14International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Energy Profile: Senegal (capacity 2024, generation 2023, energy supply 2022; PDF created September 2025). IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 26Africanews (ed.), “Senegal’s 2025 oil output exceeds predictions to reach 36.1 million barrels,” 8 January 2026, reporting the Ministry of Energy, Oil and Mines (observation year 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 27Seneweb (ed.), “Oil and gas production figures for October 2025,” 6 November 2025, reporting the Minister of Energy, Petroleum and Mines (observation period to 31 October 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: cereal production, food production index, undernourishment, food insecurity, stunting, agriculture share, Senegal (observation years 2023–2025). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 20Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: The Republic of Senegal, reference date 3 December 2024 (observation year 2024). FAO, Rome. Latest version served at access, 2026-11-03.back
  15. 21CILSS, AGRHYMET and partners (eds.), Cadre Harmonisé: results of the updated projected situation of acute food and nutritional insecurity, Sahel, West Africa and Cameroon, June to August 2026, published 2 July 2026. AGRHYMET, Niamey. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: life expectancy, child and maternal mortality, malaria and tuberculosis incidence, health expenditure, Senegal (observation years 2023–2024). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 22World Health Organization (ed.), “Rift Valley fever: Mauritania and Senegal,” Disease Outbreak News 2025-DON584, 5 November 2025 (observation period 20 September to 30 October 2025). WHO, Geneva. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area, agricultural land and protected areas, Senegal (observation years 2024–2025). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 51UNVERIFIED, not opened: Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025: Senegal country report. FAO, Rome, 2025. The country report was searched for and not reached.back
  20. 11International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook database via the DataMapper interface: real GDP growth and general government gross debt, Senegal (observation years 1980–2025). IMF, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03; the database vintage was not stated on the page read.back
  21. 12International Monetary Fund (ed.), “IMF Staff Concludes Visit to Senegal,” Press Release No. 26/216, 22 June 2026 (observation year 2025). IMF, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  22. 13International Monetary Fund (ed.), “IMF Reaches Staff-Level Agreement on an Extended Credit Facility Arrangement with Senegal,” Press Release No. 26/282, 1 September 2026 (observation year 2025). IMF, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In Senegal Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Senegal’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-SEN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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