Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

5 min read0 figures6 tables5 notesNR-COUNTRY-SEN-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Senegal’s risk runs through its rivers, its coast and its fuel
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Urban flood with a water, power and clinic interruption
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. A-01

    How would a heavy-rain flood in Dakar or Touba interrupt water, power and health services, and how long would recovery take?

    INI-SEN-SYS-01 · urban flood continuity; first output: dependency graph for two cities.

  2. A-02

    Where are people without safely managed water and sanitation, and which regions carry the gap?

    INI-SEN-WAT-02 · safely managed services gap; first output: regional gap table.

  3. A-03

    How will oil and gas output and domestic gas reshape the power system, emissions and the budget?

    INI-SEN-ENE-03 · gas-to-power and emissions; first output: power-mix and emissions table.

  4. A-04

    How exposed are cereal and rice supply to rainfall, price and import shocks?

    INI-SEN-FOO-04 · food supply exposure; first output: commodity dependence table.

  5. A-05

    How do Senegal River floods, Rift Valley fever and irrigated rice link as one health risk?

    INI-SEN-HLT-05 · river valley one health; first output: case-and-flood timeline.

  6. A-06

    How fast is the coast eroding at Saint-Louis and the Petite Côte, and who is exposed?

    INI-SEN-CLI-06 · workstream; first output: coastal exposure note.

  7. A-07

    What is the condition of mangroves and forests, and how is it changing?

    To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note against national forest records.

  8. A-08

    Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only planned?

    National capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-SEN-SYS-01Urban flood continuityInitiativeA-01PROPOSED
INI-SEN-WAT-02Safely managed services gapInitiativeA-02PROPOSED
INI-SEN-ENE-03Gas-to-power and emissionsInitiativeA-03PROPOSED
INI-SEN-FOO-04Food supply exposureInitiativeA-04PROPOSED
INI-SEN-HLT-05River valley one healthInitiativeA-05PROPOSED
PRJ-SEN-SYS-01aTwo-city flood dependency graph (Dakar and Touba)ProjectA-01PROPOSED
MSN-SEN-2027-01Urban flood and river valley Universe missionMissionA-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

Senegal is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run in Senegal from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

  1. 01

    One National Agenda

    bounded national questions for the year

    DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment

  2. 02

    National Desk

    coordination, records, routing and continuity

    DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027

  3. 03

    National Model

    the country as a system of systems

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut

  4. 04

    National Portfolio

    risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions

    7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment

  5. 05

    Foundry

    continuous computational environment

    PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-SEN-2027-Q1

  6. 06

    Reports

    quarterly and annual publication

    BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda

  7. 07

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027

  8. 08

    Evidence and correction

    after-action, correction and renewal

    OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNEDQ4 2027 annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-SEN-2027-01 · Urban flood and river valley Universe mission
Role spine
Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
CLI-001 · emissionspublic recordreference for the 2027 seriesPUBLIC
ENE-003 · electricity accessINI-SEN-ENE-03gas-to-power and emissionsPUBLIC
WAT-005 · safely managed waterINI-SEN-WAT-02services gapPUBLIC
WAT-006 · water pressureINI-SEN-WAT-02withdrawal pathPUBLIC
FOO-007 · foodINI-SEN-FOO-04food supply exposurePUBLIC
CLI-011 · floodsINI-SEN-SYS-01 · key F reviewurban flood continuityPUBLIC
HLT-008 · healthINI-SEN-HLT-05river valley one healthPUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-SEN-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the national pathwayconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
Rainfall and weather warningsANACIM, national meteorological agencyreal timeCLI findings
Senegal River levels and releasesOMVS and the Ministry of Hydraulics and Sanitation50daily in seasonRSK-SEN-CLI-001
Cadre Harmonisé analysesCILSS, AGRHYMET and national bodiestwice a yearFOO-007
Crop monitoring briefFAO GIEWSperiodicFOO-007
Oil and gas production reportsMinistry of Energy, Petroleum and MinesmonthlyENE-004
Disease outbreak noticesWHO and the Ministry of Healthper eventHLT-008
Population and poverty statisticsANSDper releaseprofile

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • quarterly publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-SEN-001Rift Valley fever deaths in the river valley22CORROBORATEDHLT · CLIresearch question A-05
SIG-SEN-002Oil output of 36.1 million barrels in 202526CORROBORATEDENE · FINinitiative A-03
SIG-SEN-003Floods with ministry tolls in 2024 and 20252425CORROBORATEDCLI · INFresearch question A-01

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 50UNVERIFIED, not opened: Organisation pour la mise en valeur du fleuve Sénégal (OMVS), Manantali and Diama dams and the Senegal River basin. OMVS, Dakar. Cited from search-result descriptions only; no figure is taken from it.back
  2. 22World Health Organization (ed.), “Rift Valley fever: Mauritania and Senegal,” Disease Outbreak News 2025-DON584, 5 November 2025 (observation period 20 September to 30 October 2025). WHO, Geneva. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 26Africanews (ed.), “Senegal’s 2025 oil output exceeds predictions to reach 36.1 million barrels,” 8 January 2026, reporting the Ministry of Energy, Oil and Mines (observation year 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 24Ministry of Hydraulics and Sanitation (ed.), national evaluation workshop on the 2025 rainy season, 16 December 2025, as reported by allAfrica, “Inondations: plus de 10 millions de m³ d’eau pompés en 2025” (observation year 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 25Sud Quotidien (ed.), report on the 2025 rainy-season evaluation, 17 December 2025, distributed by allAfrica (observation year 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In Senegal Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Senegal’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-SEN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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