Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Systems and sectors at baseline

5 min read0 figures2 tables16 notesNR-COUNTRY-SEN-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Senegal’s risk runs through its rivers, its coast and its fuel
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Urban flood with a water, power and clinic interruption
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

WAT · Water

People using safely managed drinking water

27.2%

Basic drinking water reaches 88.0%. Safely managed sanitation reaches 30.1%.

Reported2024World Bank WDI5

ENE · Energy

Access to electricity

82.9%

Urban 95.7%, rural 67.1%. Up from 67.9% in 2022.

Reported2024World Bank WDI6

FOO · Food

People in Crisis or worse, projected June to August 2026

0.84million

4.3% of the 19.6 million people analysed; 24,934 in Emergency (Phase 4).

Reported2026Cadre Harmonisé21

HLT · Health

Confirmed Rift Valley fever cases, 20 Sep to 30 Oct

358cases

28 deaths. The Saint-Louis region held 78% of cases.

Reported2025WHO22

BIO · Biodiversity

Forest area

45.0% of land

Down from 45.4% in 2019. Mangrove extent and threat status are not bound.

Reported2024World Bank WDI8

SYS · Cross-system

Deaths in the 2025 rainy-season floods

20deaths

8,336 people affected; 946 ha of farmland destroyed.

Reported2025ministry via press24

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATBasic drinking water 88.0%, safely managed 27.2%; basic sanitation 62.5%.WAT → HLT · WAT ↔ ENEReported EQL 4
ENEAccess 82.9%; 85% of generation non-renewable; oil and gas now produced offshore.ENE → allReported EQL 4
FOOCereal harvest above average in 2024; 836,786 people projected in Crisis or worse.FOO ← CLI, ENEReported EQL 4
HLTRift Valley fever outbreak with 28 deaths; life expectancy 68.9 years.HLT ← WAT, CLIReported EQL 4
BIOForest 45.0% of land; protected land 27.5%, protected waters 3.1%.BIO ↔ WAT, FOOReported EQL 3
CLIFloods in 2024 and 2025; coastal erosion; river valley exposure.forcing on all systemsReported EQL 3
INFDrainage, roads and pipes cut by floods; grid losses of 16.5%.INF → allInferred EQL 3
FINGrowth 6.7% in 2025; deficit 6.4% of GDP; gross debt 127.7% of GDP.FIN ← CLI, ENEReported EQL 3
DATDigital dependencies of lifelines not mapped at public-safe resolution.DAT → ENE, FINExpert input EQL 2
AICData-centre and compute demand on power and water not bound in this edition.AIC → ENE, WATExpert input EQL 2
MINMining linkages to power and water not bound in this edition.MIN → ENE, WATExpert input EQL 2
TRDRice imported at about 1.3 million tonnes a year; fuel and equipment imports not bound.TRD → ENE, FOOInferred EQL 2

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemcompound flood, water, power and clinic stressurban flood with a utility interruptionPARTIAL
GS-01Water27.2% safely managed drinking water5supply deficit; groundwaterPARTIAL
GS-02Energyaccess 82.9%; capacity 1,901 MW614gas-to-power path; rural accessPARTIAL
GS-03Foodcereals above average in 202420rainfall; rice importsPARTIAL
GS-04Health358 Rift Valley fever cases22service continuity in floodsPARTIAL
GS-05Financedeficit 6.4% of GDP in 202512flood loss; debt treatmentTHIN
GS-06Development37.5% poverty at the national line4service delivery gapsTHIN
GS-07Climate2020 contribution on record16extreme rain; coastal erosionPARTIAL
GS-08Disasterfloods with ministry tolls24warning to response chainTHIN
GS-09Infrastructuredrainage works built after floods25maintenance; urban growthPARTIAL
GS-10CitiesDakar density 7,485 per km²1drainage; supply deficitTHIN
GS-11Biodiversityforest 45.0% of land8mangrove extent not boundTHIN
GS-12Earth observationnot reviewedcontinuityTHIN
GS-13Cyber and digitaldependencies not yet mappedsystemic outagesTHIN
GS-14PolicyPetroleum and Forest Codes on record2930coordination across ministriesPARTIAL
GS-15Sciencecensus and climate report published119translation to regionsPARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: drinking-water, sanitation and freshwater series, Senegal (observation years 2022–2024), drawn from the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme and FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: access to electricity, electric power consumption and transmission losses, Senegal (observation years 2022–2024). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 21CILSS, AGRHYMET and partners (eds.), Cadre Harmonisé: results of the updated projected situation of acute food and nutritional insecurity, Sahel, West Africa and Cameroon, June to August 2026, published 2 July 2026. AGRHYMET, Niamey. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 22World Health Organization (ed.), “Rift Valley fever: Mauritania and Senegal,” Disease Outbreak News 2025-DON584, 5 November 2025 (observation period 20 September to 30 October 2025). WHO, Geneva. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area, agricultural land and protected areas, Senegal (observation years 2024–2025). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 24Ministry of Hydraulics and Sanitation (ed.), national evaluation workshop on the 2025 rainy season, 16 December 2025, as reported by allAfrica, “Inondations: plus de 10 millions de m³ d’eau pompés en 2025” (observation year 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 14International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Energy Profile: Senegal (capacity 2024, generation 2023, energy supply 2022; PDF created September 2025). IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 20Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: The Republic of Senegal, reference date 3 December 2024 (observation year 2024). FAO, Rome. Latest version served at access, 2026-11-03.back
  9. 12International Monetary Fund (ed.), “IMF Staff Concludes Visit to Senegal,” Press Release No. 26/216, 22 June 2026 (observation year 2025). IMF, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: poverty headcount at national lines and at US$3.00 a day, Gini index, Senegal (observation year 2021). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 16Government of Senegal (ed.), Contribution déterminée au niveau national du Sénégal, document dated December 2020. Submission document hosted by the UNFCCC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 25Sud Quotidien (ed.), report on the 2025 rainy-season evaluation, 17 December 2025, distributed by allAfrica (observation year 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 1Agence nationale de la statistique et de la démographie (ed.), “État et structure, urbanisation et caractéristiques socioculturelles de la population,” Rapport définitif, RGPH-5 2023 (observation year 2023, published 1 July 2025). ANSD, Dakar. Read on the Vie-Publique.sn record page, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 29Government of Senegal (ed.), Loi n° 2018-25 du 12 novembre 2018 portant Code forestier. Dakar, 2018. Read on the Vie-Publique.sn record page (description only), accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 30Government of Senegal (ed.), Loi n° 2019-03 du 1er février 2019 portant Code pétrolier. Dakar, 2019. Read on the Vie-Publique.sn record page (description only), accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 19World Bank (ed.), Senegal Country Climate and Development Report, Executive Summary (observation year 2024, published October 2024). World Bank Group, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In Senegal Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Senegal’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-SEN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

ReportsContribute

Send evidence or a correction on Senegal.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) Systems Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.

GCRI Systems Evidence deskCountry Systems Risk and Resilience

Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.

CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.

The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

Science · evidence · measurement

Not for profit

Our articles, maps and twins are free to read and free to republish. Readers and partners keep it that way.

Partner with us

Who funds us

GCRI is a not-for-profit institution. To ask who funds a piece of work, use the funding questions form.

Independence

Editors and the expert reviewers named on each article decide what we publish. Funders and partners do not review or approve articles before publication.

Corrections policy

Licence

Articles: CC BY 4.0. Figures, maps, twins and data: CC BY 4.0. Other uses: ask through the permissions form.

Privacy choices