- Senegal 2026
- Annex A
Methodology
How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Senegal’s risk runs through its rivers, its coast and its fuel
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Urban flood with a water, power and clinic interruption
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
A.1Methods
The baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.
| No. | Derivation | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | Sum of three gases, 2024 | 14.20 + 12.33 + 3.74 | ≈ 30.3 Mt |
| (2) | Unitemised remainder, 2024 | 31.72 − 30.28 | ≈ 1.4 Mt |
| (3) | Agricultural share of methane, 2024 | 9.39 ÷ 12.33 | ≈ 76% |
| (4) | 2030 levels under the 2020 contribution | 37.761 × (1 − 0.07) and 37.761 × (1 − 0.295) | ≈ 35.1 Mt and 26.6 Mt |
| Strength | Definition |
|---|---|
| STRONG | a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season |
| MODERATE | an effect is documented but buffered or slower |
| WEAK | an effect is plausible but not documented at national scale |
| Label | Rule |
|---|---|
| Reported | value as issued by its source, with year |
| Inferred | reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement |
| Estimated | Nexus analytical value with stated method |
| Scenario | conditional on stated assumptions |
| Expert input | structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence |
A.2Model card, National Model v0
- Model ID
- MDL-SEN-NATIONAL · v0.1
- Purpose
- represent Senegal as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems with forcing and transmission layers
- Family
- graph-based system of systems
- Inputs
- the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
- Method
- expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from evidence and analogue events
- Validation
- none yet, first validation against Q1 2027 Foundry evidence
- Uncertainty
- qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
- Domain of validity
- national scale; not for region or asset-level use
- Reproducibility
- strength table and sources published in this edition
20couplings
typed in v0
9strong
documented within one season
7moderate
documented, buffered
4weak
plausible, undocumented
A.3The baseline evidence cut
Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Model runs begin with the first Foundry cut in Q1 2027.
- Cut ID
- NQ-SEN-2026-Q0-1
- Type
- baseline documentary cut
- Resolution policy
- pinned · as of 30 September 2026
- Sources pinned
- 55 cited sources, each at the edition and retrieval date in the references
- Model runs
- none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
- Digest
- computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
- Supersedes
- nothing, first cut of the series
- Superseded by
- NQ-SEN-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close
Lineage
- 01
source edition
- 02
pinned citation
- 03
finding
- 04
page
- 05
publication record
| Element | Baseline 2026 | Q1 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| Sources | cited publications, pinned by edition | qualified source bindings with versions |
| Analysis | stated methods and editorial estimates | typed analysis specifications |
| Models | National Model v0 specification | model runs with receipts |
| Findings | twelve baseline findings | findings re-bound to the cut |
| Review | five passes scheduled | five passes on the exact digest |
A.4Evidence age and coverage
A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.
| Indicator | Observed | Released | Cadence | Next release |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population and structure | 2023 | Jul 2025 | decennial | next census |
| Greenhouse-gas series | 2024 | Oct 2026 | annual | Oct 2027 |
| 2020 climate contribution | 2020 | Dec 2020 | periodic | third contribution |
| Third contribution validation | 2026 | Apr 2026 | periodic | submission |
| Electricity access | 2024 | Oct 2026 | annual | Oct 2027 |
| Oil output | 2025 | Jan 2026 | monthly | 2026 reports |
| Cadre Harmonisé projection | Jun–Aug 2026 | Jul 2026 | twice a year | Nov 2026 cycle |
| Rift Valley fever count | to 30 Oct 2025 | Nov 2025 | per event | later notices |
| Flood deaths | 2025 | Dec 2025 | annual | 2026 evaluation |
| System | Coverage | Thinnest dimension |
|---|---|---|
| Climate forcing | PARTIAL | regional rainfall extremes |
| Energy | PARTIAL | 2025 generation by source |
| Food | PARTIAL | final harvest; rice imports |
| Health | PARTIAL | water-related illness |
| Water | PARTIAL | regional services; supply deficit |
| Biodiversity | THIN | mangroves and threat status |
| Finance | THIN | insured share of loss |
| Digital | THIN | dependency mapping |
A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources
Issued by the Agence nationale de la statistique et de la démographie as the state and structure chapter of the fifth census. Decennial, reference year 2023, released July 2025. Role: binds the population profile and regional density.
EVD-SEN-001
Census report1
Issued by the World Health Organization in its Disease Outbreak News of 5 November 2025. Covers 20 September to 30 October 2025. Role: binds HLT-008 and the river valley risk object.
EVD-SEN-002
WHO outbreak notice22
| Dimension | EVD-SEN-001 | EVD-SEN-002 |
|---|---|---|
| Completeness | all residents; post-census survey coverage 96.0% | confirmed cases only, by district |
| Timeliness | about 2 years after the census | about 1 week after the data cut |
| Revision | definitive after provisional counts | revised in later notices; later counts may differ |
| Method transparency | census method documented by the agency | case definition not read in full |
| External validation | post-enumeration survey | joint assessment with FAO and WOAH |
Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027
A.6Publication acceptance record
Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.
| Group | Area | Items | Pass | N/A | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | Identity and scope | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| D2 | Source and data | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 |
| D3 | Analysis and models | 12 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| D4 | Findings and claims | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
| D5 | Figures, tables, maps | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| D6 | Editorial and citations | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 |
| D7 | Review and approval | 13 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| D8 | Artefact and design | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 |
| D9 | Registry and release | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
Publication gate
- Conditions met
- 14 of 23 at evidence close
- Blocking problems
- none recorded
- Open conditions
- reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer
Not applicable at baseline
- Model runs
- first runs in Q1 2027
- Maps
- plates in Q2 2027
- Waivers
- none
A.7Status words
| Status | What it means |
|---|---|
| Observed | Measured directly and published by the source. |
| Reported | Published statistics of an official or institutional source. |
| Declared | Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured. |
| Estimated | A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A. |
| Modelled | Produced by a stated model from cited inputs. |
| Inferred | Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured. |
| Forecast | A projection by the cited source. |
| Simulated | A simulation result under stated assumptions. |
| Scenario | A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction. |
| Expert input | Expert judgement, recorded with its basis. |
| Candidate | Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence. |
| Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject. | |
A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected
Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.
| Step | What happens | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 01 Evidence arrives from the pillars | Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s. | |
| 02 The cut is sealed | On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on. | |
| 03 The edition is assembled | The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide. | |
| 04 The keys turn | At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward. | |
| 05 The gate opens | A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit. | |
| 06 Signed and deposited | The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI. | |
| 07 Published on its desk’s site | Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part. | |
| 08 Corrections go to Standards | Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut. |
A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).
Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.
A.9Glossary and abbreviations
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Baseline Edition | the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series |
| WEFH+B | water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core |
| Coupling | a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another |
| Protection gap | the share of losses not covered by insurance |
| Capability ladder | LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED |
| EQL | evidence-quality level, 1–5 |
| Evidence cut | a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions |
| NNC · NLC · NWG | National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups |
| Abbreviation | Expansion |
|---|---|
| ANSD | Agence nationale de la statistique et de la démographie |
| CCDR | Country Climate and Development Report |
| CH | Cadre Harmonisé |
| CILSS | Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel |
| FAO | Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations |
| GIEWS | Global Information and Early Warning System |
| GTA | Grand Tortue Ahmeyim |
| IMF | International Monetary Fund |
| IRENA | International Renewable Energy Agency |
| LNG | liquefied natural gas |
| NDC | nationally determined contribution |
| OMVS | Organisation pour la mise en valeur du fleuve Sénégal |
| RVF | Rift Valley fever |
| WDI | World Development Indicators |
| WHO | World Health Organization |
A.10Technical annex
| Item | Annex | Contents | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| A.1 | Indicator definitions | the baseline indicator set, with units and sources | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.2 | Coupling strengths | the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.3 | Scenario specification | SCN-SEN-FLD-01 assumptions and signposts | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.4 | Capability placements | rung evidence for fifteen functions | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.5 | Model diagnostics | first runs and validation | Q1 2027 |
| A.6 | Sensitivity analyses | influence of coupling strengths | Q2 2027 |
| A.7 | Regional notes | atlas cards for every region | Q2 2027 |
| A.8 | Review statements | pass-by-pass review record | AT RELEASE |
A.1 · indicator definition, safely managed drinking water
- Construct
- a drinking-water source that is improved, located on premises, available when needed and free of contamination
- Unit
- share of people
- Scope
- national population, with urban and rural splits
- Source
- World Bank WDI series carrying the WHO and UNICEF monitoring results5
- Revision
- revised in each monitoring update
- Known limits
- the monitoring programme definition was read through the database, not the programme report
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 1Agence nationale de la statistique et de la démographie (ed.), “État et structure, urbanisation et caractéristiques socioculturelles de la population,” Rapport définitif, RGPH-5 2023 (observation year 2023, published 1 July 2025). ANSD, Dakar. Read on the Vie-Publique.sn record page, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 22World Health Organization (ed.), “Rift Valley fever: Mauritania and Senegal,” Disease Outbreak News 2025-DON584, 5 November 2025 (observation period 20 September to 30 October 2025). WHO, Geneva. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: greenhouse-gas emissions by gas and sector and land-use fluxes, Senegal (observation years 2023–2024). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Energy Profile: Senegal (capacity 2024, generation 2023, energy supply 2022; PDF created September 2025). IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 15Ember (ed.), Yearly electricity data, share of electricity by source, Senegal (observation years 2022–2024), read through the Our World in Data grapher files. Ember, London. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: drinking-water, sanitation and freshwater series, Senegal (observation years 2022–2024), drawn from the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme and FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back