Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

7 min read1 figure0 tables18 notesNR-COUNTRY-SEN-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
    1. S.1 Abstract
    2. S.2 Key messages
    3. S.3 Headline finding
    4. S.4 At a glance
    5. S.5 What each steward reads in it
    6. S.6 What this edition is, and is not
  3. 1Senegal’s risk runs through its rivers, its coast and its fuel
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Urban flood with a water, power and clinic interruption
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

S.1Abstract

Senegal (République du Sénégal) enters 2027 with 18.1 million residents at the 2023 census, 54.7% of them urban and 39.1% under 151. The economy grew 6.7% in 2025 as oil production began, while non-hydrocarbon growth was 2.2% and the IMF describes fiscal and debt vulnerabilities as elevated1213. Greenhouse-gas emissions were about 31.7 Mt CO₂e in 2024 excluding land use, and the 2020 contribution sets a 2030 cut of 7% unconditional and 29.5% conditional against a business-as-usual path716. A third contribution was validated nationally in April 2026 with a reported range of 13 to 17%, and its submission was not confirmed at evidence close1718. Electricity access reached 82.9% in 2024 but only 67.1% in rural areas, and oil supplied about 79% of electricity on the Ember series615. Water services show a gap between basic and safe: 88.0% of people used at least basic drinking water in 2024 and 27.2% used safely managed water5. Floods in the 2025 rainy season killed 20 people and affected 8,33624. A Rift Valley fever outbreak in the Senegal River valley caused 358 confirmed human cases and 28 deaths by 30 October 202522. The 2024 cereal harvest was forecast 8% above the five-year average, yet 836,786 people were projected in Crisis or worse for June to August 20262021. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state for Senegal’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems, maps the couplings through which flood, fuel and health shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer with Foundry evidence in Q1 2027. It reads against peer distributions and thresholds, and it decides nothing.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the Senegal baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  1. About 31.7 Mt CO₂e in 2024 excluding land use; agricultural methane is 9.4 Mt.7

    Where do emissions stand?Reported

  2. A 2030 cut of 7% to 29.5% below business as usual; a third contribution validated in April 2026, not confirmed as submitted.1617

    What has Senegal committed to?Reported

  3. Access reached 82.9%, rural access is 67.1%, and 85% of 2023 generation was non-renewable.614

    How secure is electricity?Reported

  4. Basic drinking water reaches 88.0% but safely managed water only 27.2%.5

    How sound are water services?Reported

  5. Harvests were above average in 2024, but 836,786 people are projected in Crisis or worse in mid-2026.2021

    Is food supply secure?Reported

  6. 20 deaths and 8,336 people affected in 2025; flood damage of about US$100 million a year on the World Bank estimate.1924

    What do floods cost?Reported

  7. Forest covers 45.0% of land; mangrove extent and threat status are not bound.8

    What is the state of biodiversity?Reported

  8. A heavy-rain flood in a dense urban area that interrupts water, power and clinics together. SCN-SEN-FLD-01

    What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-SEN-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005

In 2024, 88.0% of people in Senegal used at least basic drinking water, but only 27.2% used safely managed water and 13.2% in rural areas; 62.5% used at least basic sanitation and 30.1% used safely managed sanitation.

Figure S.1Water and sanitation services, 2024 (% of people)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Basic drinking water88.0
Safely managed drinking water27.2
Basic sanitation62.5
Safely managed sanitation30.1

Source: World Bank WDI, series drawn from the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme5.

Basic access hides how many people drink water or use sanitation that is not safe. A flood, a power cut or a pipe failure reaches those people first, and so the water finding links to the climate and energy systems. Reading the finding by region matters, and a regional split is not bound in this edition5.

S.4At a glance

18.1million

population, 2023 census1

54.7%

urban population, 20231

39.1%

aged under 15, 20231

31.7Mt CO₂e

emissions excl. land use, 20247

82.9%

access to electricity, 20246

37.5%

poverty at the national line, 20214

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of Senegal’s risk: services reach most people at a basic level and few at a safe one, floods cause deaths each year, and the energy system is changing as oil and gas come on stream.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people the risk arrives as a flood, an interrupted water supply or a power cut.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. The IMF reports elevated fiscal and debt vulnerabilities and a staff-level agreement subject to Board decision.

NEXUS

Synthesis

Senegal publishes a rich census and receives detailed international monitoring.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the state of Senegal’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems in 2026, the dependencies that connect them, the risks that travel through them and the capabilities that hold them. It sets out the questions the operational series will answer.

What it is not

Not a national risk assessment, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any institution or asset. Competent authorities keep every mandate they hold, and national ownership of the series is unaffected.

What comes next

Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline, new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1Agence nationale de la statistique et de la démographie (ed.), “État et structure, urbanisation et caractéristiques socioculturelles de la population,” Rapport définitif, RGPH-5 2023 (observation year 2023, published 1 July 2025). ANSD, Dakar. Read on the Vie-Publique.sn record page, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 12International Monetary Fund (ed.), “IMF Staff Concludes Visit to Senegal,” Press Release No. 26/216, 22 June 2026 (observation year 2025). IMF, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 13International Monetary Fund (ed.), “IMF Reaches Staff-Level Agreement on an Extended Credit Facility Arrangement with Senegal,” Press Release No. 26/282, 1 September 2026 (observation year 2025). IMF, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: greenhouse-gas emissions by gas and sector and land-use fluxes, Senegal (observation years 2023–2024). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 16Government of Senegal (ed.), Contribution déterminée au niveau national du Sénégal, document dated December 2020. Submission document hosted by the UNFCCC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 17allAfrica (ed.), “Sénégal: Lutte contre le changement climatique – Le Sénégal valide sa troisième Contribution déterminée,” 6 April 2026 (observation year 2026). allAfrica, Dakar desk. Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 18Le Soleil (ed.), “Lutte contre le changement climatique: le Sénégal valide sa troisième contribution déterminée,” 6 April 2026 (observation year 2026). Le Soleil, Dakar. Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: access to electricity, electric power consumption and transmission losses, Senegal (observation years 2022–2024). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 15Ember (ed.), Yearly electricity data, share of electricity by source, Senegal (observation years 2022–2024), read through the Our World in Data grapher files. Ember, London. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: drinking-water, sanitation and freshwater series, Senegal (observation years 2022–2024), drawn from the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme and FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 24Ministry of Hydraulics and Sanitation (ed.), national evaluation workshop on the 2025 rainy season, 16 December 2025, as reported by allAfrica, “Inondations: plus de 10 millions de m³ d’eau pompés en 2025” (observation year 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 22World Health Organization (ed.), “Rift Valley fever: Mauritania and Senegal,” Disease Outbreak News 2025-DON584, 5 November 2025 (observation period 20 September to 30 October 2025). WHO, Geneva. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 20Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: The Republic of Senegal, reference date 3 December 2024 (observation year 2024). FAO, Rome. Latest version served at access, 2026-11-03.back
  14. 21CILSS, AGRHYMET and partners (eds.), Cadre Harmonisé: results of the updated projected situation of acute food and nutritional insecurity, Sahel, West Africa and Cameroon, June to August 2026, published 2 July 2026. AGRHYMET, Niamey. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 14International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Energy Profile: Senegal (capacity 2024, generation 2023, energy supply 2022; PDF created September 2025). IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 19World Bank (ed.), Senegal Country Climate and Development Report, Executive Summary (observation year 2024, published October 2024). World Bank Group, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area, agricultural land and protected areas, Senegal (observation years 2024–2025). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: poverty headcount at national lines and at US$3.00 a day, Gini index, Senegal (observation year 2021). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this summary

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Executive summary: Executive summary. In Senegal Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Senegal’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-SEN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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