Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Risks and capability

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

4 min read0 figures1 table11 notesNR-COUNTRY-SEN-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Senegal’s risk runs through its rivers, its coast and its fuel
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5Urban flood with a water, power and clinic interruption
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. ReportedEQL 3RSK-SEN-CLI-001

    Heavy-rain flooding in a dense urban area

    Driver
    intense rainfall over low-lying, built-up land
    Exposure
    Touba: 70,000 people exposed; Lac Rose area: 20,000 vulnerable24
    Vulnerability
    schools, roads and homes flooded in 2025; 296 schools affected25
    Capacity
    national flood committee since 2019; regional emergency plans25
    Cascade
    CLI → INF, WAT, HLT
    Horizon
    annual

  2. ReportedEQL 3RSK-SEN-HLT-002

    Rift Valley fever in the river valley

    Driver
    mosquito-borne spread among livestock and people
    Exposure
    Saint-Louis region held 78% of cases22
    Vulnerability
    358 confirmed cases and 28 deaths by 30 Oct 202522
    Capacity
    joint WHO, FAO and WOAH assessment; national response not bound
    Cascade
    HLT → FOO, FIN
    Horizon
    1–5 years

  3. ReportedEQL 3RSK-SEN-ENE-003

    Fuel and supply exposure of the power system

    Driver
    fuel-oil dependence and import exposure
    Exposure
    households, water works, clinics, industry
    Vulnerability
    imports 70% of primary energy supply14; oil 79% of electricity15
    Capacity
    domestic gas starting; conversion to gas not bound1927
    Cascade
    ENE → WAT, HLT, FIN
    Horizon
    1–5 years

  4. ReportedEQL 3RSK-SEN-CLI-004

    Coastal erosion and sea-level rise

    Driver
    sea-level rise and storm waves on a low coast
    Exposure
    half of people and two-thirds of GDP in coastal zones19
    Vulnerability
    75% of coastline at risk; losses 3.3% of GDP19
    Capacity
    coastal resilience projects exist; scope not bound52
    Cascade
    CLI → INF, WAT, FOO
    Horizon
    5–30 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationNOT BOUNDsource: land-use and building records · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Monitoring and observationEXISTSregional and national food-security analyses are published twice a year21
Early warningNOT BOUNDsource: national weather agency and civil-protection records · blocker: not retrieved
Preparedness and planningLISTEDregional emergency plans for Diourbel, Bakel, Saint-Louis and Matam are named; their use is not bound25
Redundancy and reservesNOT BOUNDsource: fuel, water and grain reserve data · blocker: not retrieved
ResponseNOT BOUNDsource: after-action records of the 2024 and 2025 floods · blocker: not retrieved
Continuity of critical servicesNOT BOUNDsource: utility continuity records · blocker: not retrieved
RecoveryNOT BOUNDsource: reconstruction records after the floods · blocker: not retrieved
AdaptationLISTEDthe 2020 contribution names adaptation priorities; delivery is not bound16
Social protectionNOT BOUNDsource: social-register and transfer records · blocker: not reviewed
Finance and insuranceNOT BOUNDsource: insurance regulator and ministry of finance statistics · blocker: not retrieved
Institutional coordinationLISTEDa national flood committee exists, set up in 2019 and being reorganised; function is not bound25
Technical infrastructureLISTED7 retention basins and 8 protective dikes built; condition not bound25
WorkforceNOT BOUNDsource: engineering and operator registers · blocker: not retrieved
Research capacityADEQUATEa national census and a Country Climate and Development Report are published119
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 24Ministry of Hydraulics and Sanitation (ed.), national evaluation workshop on the 2025 rainy season, 16 December 2025, as reported by allAfrica, “Inondations: plus de 10 millions de m³ d’eau pompés en 2025” (observation year 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 25Sud Quotidien (ed.), report on the 2025 rainy-season evaluation, 17 December 2025, distributed by allAfrica (observation year 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 22World Health Organization (ed.), “Rift Valley fever: Mauritania and Senegal,” Disease Outbreak News 2025-DON584, 5 November 2025 (observation period 20 September to 30 October 2025). WHO, Geneva. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 14International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Energy Profile: Senegal (capacity 2024, generation 2023, energy supply 2022; PDF created September 2025). IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 15Ember (ed.), Yearly electricity data, share of electricity by source, Senegal (observation years 2022–2024), read through the Our World in Data grapher files. Ember, London. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 19World Bank (ed.), Senegal Country Climate and Development Report, Executive Summary (observation year 2024, published October 2024). World Bank Group, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 27Seneweb (ed.), “Oil and gas production figures for October 2025,” 6 November 2025, reporting the Minister of Energy, Petroleum and Mines (observation period to 31 October 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 52UNVERIFIED, not opened: Agence de Presse Sénégalaise or allAfrica (eds.), report on the World Bank-backed Saint-Louis coastal resilience project, June 2025. Search-result listing only; access to the page was refused and no figure is taken from it.back
  9. 21CILSS, AGRHYMET and partners (eds.), Cadre Harmonisé: results of the updated projected situation of acute food and nutritional insecurity, Sahel, West Africa and Cameroon, June to August 2026, published 2 July 2026. AGRHYMET, Niamey. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 16Government of Senegal (ed.), Contribution déterminée au niveau national du Sénégal, document dated December 2020. Submission document hosted by the UNFCCC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 1Agence nationale de la statistique et de la démographie (ed.), “État et structure, urbanisation et caractéristiques socioculturelles de la population,” Rapport définitif, RGPH-5 2023 (observation year 2023, published 1 July 2025). ANSD, Dakar. Read on the Vie-Publique.sn record page, accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In Senegal Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Senegal’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-SEN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

ReportsContribute

Send evidence or a correction on Senegal.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) Systems Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.

GCRI Systems Evidence deskCountry Systems Risk and Resilience

Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.

CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.

The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

Science · evidence · measurement

Not for profit

Our articles, maps and twins are free to read and free to republish. Readers and partners keep it that way.

Partner with us

Who funds us

GCRI is a not-for-profit institution. To ask who funds a piece of work, use the funding questions form.

Independence

Editors and the expert reviewers named on each article decide what we publish. Funders and partners do not review or approve articles before publication.

Corrections policy

Licence

Articles: CC BY 4.0. Figures, maps, twins and data: CC BY 4.0. Other uses: ask through the permissions form.

Privacy choices