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Urban flood with a water, power and clinic interruption

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

3 min read0 figures0 tables8 notesNR-COUNTRY-SEN-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Senegal’s risk runs through its rivers, its coast and its fuel
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Urban flood with a water, power and clinic interruption
    1. 5.1 Assumptions
    2. 5.2 The cascade, step by step
    3. 5.3 The scenario as a table of steps
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-SEN-FLD-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline
the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers
a rainfall event over Dakar or Touba that exceeds drainage, with a power interruption of several days
Analogues
the 2025 rainy season2425; Senegal River floods of October 20242038
Interventions
none modelled; the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state
narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

  1. 1

    CLI → INF

    heavy rain exceeds drainage; roads and schools are flooded

    2025 evidence2425

  2. 2

    INF → ENE

    flooded substations and access roads interrupt supply

    loss series6

  3. 3

    ENE → WAT

    pumping and treatment lose power; unsafe sources are used

    service series5

  4. 4

    WAT → HLT

    unsafe water and standing water raise exposure to disease

    outbreak record22

  5. 5

    INF → FOO

    cut roads delay food distribution to affected districts

    GIEWS brief20

  6. 6

    ENE → FIN

    repair and relief costs fall on the budget

    fiscal series12

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-SEN-FLD-01 would travel through Senegal’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

StepWhat happensSource
01 Climate to infrastructureHeavy rain exceeds drainage; roads and schools are flooded. Analogue or source: 2025 evidence [24] [25].Edition SEN, scenario SCN-SEN-FLD-01, step 1
02 Infrastructure to energyFlooded substations and access roads interrupt supply. Analogue or source: loss series [6].Edition SEN, scenario SCN-SEN-FLD-01, step 2
03 Energy to waterPumping and treatment lose power; unsafe sources are used. Analogue or source: service series [5].Edition SEN, scenario SCN-SEN-FLD-01, step 3
04 Water to healthUnsafe water and standing water raise exposure to disease. Analogue or source: outbreak record [22].Edition SEN, scenario SCN-SEN-FLD-01, step 4
05 Infrastructure to foodCut roads delay food distribution to affected districts. Analogue or source: GIEWS brief [20].Edition SEN, scenario SCN-SEN-FLD-01, step 5
06 Energy to financeRepair and relief costs fall on the budget. Analogue or source: fiscal series [12].Edition SEN, scenario SCN-SEN-FLD-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Senegal 2026, scenario SCN-SEN-FLD-01 (2026); Senegal 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 24Ministry of Hydraulics and Sanitation (ed.), national evaluation workshop on the 2025 rainy season, 16 December 2025, as reported by allAfrica, “Inondations: plus de 10 millions de m³ d’eau pompés en 2025” (observation year 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 25Sud Quotidien (ed.), report on the 2025 rainy-season evaluation, 17 December 2025, distributed by allAfrica (observation year 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 20Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: The Republic of Senegal, reference date 3 December 2024 (observation year 2024). FAO, Rome. Latest version served at access, 2026-11-03.back
  4. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Agence de Presse Africaine (ed.), report of 55,600 people affected by the October 2024 Senegal River floods, citing the government. APA News, 2024. Search-result snippet only; the page was not opened.back
  5. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: access to electricity, electric power consumption and transmission losses, Senegal (observation years 2022–2024). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: drinking-water, sanitation and freshwater series, Senegal (observation years 2022–2024), drawn from the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme and FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 22World Health Organization (ed.), “Rift Valley fever: Mauritania and Senegal,” Disease Outbreak News 2025-DON584, 5 November 2025 (observation period 20 September to 30 October 2025). WHO, Geneva. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 12International Monetary Fund (ed.), “IMF Staff Concludes Visit to Senegal,” Press Release No. 26/216, 22 June 2026 (observation year 2025). IMF, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 5: Urban flood with a water, power and clinic interruption. In Senegal Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Senegal’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-SEN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind Senegal.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

Context

Urban flood

Flooded streets take out substations, pumping stations and clinic access together; drinking water fails when power does.

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Energy → Infrastructure · power for transport and telecoms0.8
  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
  • Water → Health · drinking water and sanitation0.7
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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