- Senegal 2026
- Chapter 6
Readings from the other desks
The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Senegal’s risk runs through its rivers, its coast and its fuel
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Urban flood with a water, power and clinic interruption
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 6.1 The other desks’ editions of this subject
- 6.2 Three lenses
- 6.3 Standards, Academy and steward contributions
- 6.4 GCRI reading: the model card
- 6.5 Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
- 6.6 Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack
- 6.7 Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
- 6.8 Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject
Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.
| Desk | Edition | State | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| GRF Public Deliberation | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Standards Progress | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| Academy Capability | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| Index Measurement | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle |
6.2Three lenses
One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.
GCRI · KEY T
Technical Truth
The evidence supports a coupled reading of Senegal’s risk: services reach most people at a basic level and few at a safe one, floods cause deaths each year, and the energy system is changing as oil and gas come on stream. Evidence is strongest for population, access and emissions series, and thinnest for supply deficits, mangroves and recovery capability.
CLI-001 · WAT-005 · ENE-003 · SYS-012
GRF · KEY M
Public Meaning
For most people the risk arrives as a flood, an interrupted water supply or a power cut. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how basic and safe service differ for households and towns.
WAT-005 · ENE-003 · CLI-011
GRA · KEY F
Capital Meaning
Readiness implications only. The IMF reports elevated fiscal and debt vulnerabilities and a staff-level agreement subject to Board decision13. Insured flood loss is not bound. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an endorsement.
FIN-010 · CLI-011
NEXUS
Synthesis
Senegal publishes a rich census and receives detailed international monitoring. The 2027 programme should map flood, water and power dependencies in two cities, test the urban flood pathway, and bind the missing supply, mangrove and loss series.
SYS-012 · A-01 · A-02
6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions
How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for Senegal. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.
| Quarter | Edition | Question | Boundary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | State and Agenda | What matters this year, and what is the starting position? | observed baseline stays distinct from planned work |
| Q2 | Evidence and Build | What new evidence and capability have been developed? | a configured capability is not a validated result |
| Q3 | Stress Test and Readiness | What do scenarios and tests reveal? | simulated loss or performance is not observed impact |
| Q4 | Annual Synthesis and Renewal | What did the year establish, and what changes next? | release follows review, not event publicity deadlines |
| Steward or body | Role | Contribution route |
|---|---|---|
| The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI Canada) | Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T) | science and practice communities · GCRI gateway |
| The Global Risks Forum (GRF) | leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M) | policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway |
| The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) | finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F) | finance and insurance · GRA gateway |
| Nexus Standards | preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods | Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI |
| Risk Academy | learning pathways tied to the agenda questions | Academy gateway · learning by review |
| Senegal | national pathway: Desk, Leadership Council, Consortium, Working Groups | national Commons room |
Standards drafts used in this edition
- Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
- Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
- Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech
Standards calendar to watch
- Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
- Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
- Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition
6.4GCRI reading: the model card
GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology
6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.
Most people reach a basic water service, but about one in four reaches a safe one. The baseline treats the gap as a coupling problem with floods, power and health, and not as a service problem alone.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01
Basic is not safe
The 2024 river floods and the 2025 rains affected thousands of households. Every risk object in this edition is read through how cascading failure follows a flood.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02
Floods are an annual event
Offshore oil and gas now add to growth and to the power debate. Access has grown fast, rural access lags, and the mix on the grid is still mostly fuel oil.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03
Oil and gas change the energy story
Above-average harvests do not say who can afford to eat. The Cadre Harmonisé and the household food-insecurity series carry that question into 2027.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04
Supply is ample, access is not bound
6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack
The registers that open the first operational quarter. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.
| Item | Register | State at baseline | First Q1 2027 entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| E1 | National risk state delta | baseline set by this edition | changes against the baseline |
| E2 | WEFH+B state delta | five system readings set | indicator updates and freshness |
| E3 | Agenda and Portfolio movement | eight agenda items · 7 proposed objects | admission decisions |
| E4 | NWG delivery register | no groups yet | first monthly outputs |
| E5 | NNC capability register | membership opens in Q1 2027 | first contributions |
| E6 | NLC questions and challenges | none yet | first challenge log |
| E7 | Foundry technical state | environment prepared | first sealed cut |
| E8 | Publication candidates | twelve findings carried forward | PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions |
| E9 | Universe readiness | one candidate mission | admission and role spine |
| E10 | Correction register | none | first correction cycle |
Publication dispositions
- Publish
- Hold
- Needs evidence
- Restricted
- Superseded
6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.
- IN FORCE
- ADOPTED
- SUBMITTED
- UNDER REVIEW
- PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY
| Instrument | Body | Scope | Status | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Agreement42 · 2020 contribution, 2030 cut of 7% to 29.5%16 | UNFCCC · Senegal | national | ADOPTED 2020 | emissions pathway |
| Third contribution171832 | Government of Senegal | national | UNDER REVIEW | emissions pathway |
| Forest Code, Law 2018-2529 | Government of Senegal | national | IN FORCE | forest governance |
| Petroleum Code, Law 2019-0330 | Government of Senegal | national | IN FORCE | oil and gas |
| Local content law, Law 2019-0435 | Government of Senegal | national | IN FORCE | oil and gas |
| Gas Code, Law 2020-0636 | Government of Senegal | national | IN FORCE | gas |
| Electricity Code, Law 2021-31 and Law 2021-323334 | Government of Senegal | national | ENACTED 2021 | electricity market |
| Environment Code, Law 2023-1531 | Government of Senegal | national | ENACTED 2023 | environmental law |
| Kunming-Montreal Framework44 | CBD | international | ADOPTED 2022 | 30by30 |
| Sendai Framework 2015–203043 | UNDRR | international | ADOPTED 2015 | disaster risk reduction |
Changed since 2024
- A revision of the third contribution was launched in July 2025 and the text was validated nationally in April 20261732
- The Environment Code of 2023 is the latest text on record; its relation to the 2001 Code was not confirmed31
- Offshore oil and gas production began in 2024 and 2025 under the Petroleum Code framework2730
6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, national and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.
Review protocol
- Question
- What does the published evidence establish about Senegal’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks?
- Sources searched
- peer-reviewed literature; national and international assessments; official releases; industry loss data
- Window
- releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
- Selection
- sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
- Next step
- systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027
| Reference | Type | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trisos et al.45 | assessment chapter | 2022 | context | African impacts and adaptation |
| IPBES nexus assessment46 | assessment | 2024 | framework | nexus interlinkages |
| Zscheischler et al.47 | journal article | 2018 | framework | compound events |
| Country Climate and Development Report19 | World Bank | 2024 | supports | climate losses and pathways |
| State of the Climate in Africa48 | WMO | 2025 | context | regional climate |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationally determined contribution16 | Government of Senegal | 2020 | supports | targets |
| Press reports on the third contribution1718 | press | 2026 | context | validation status |
| Global Assessment Report49 | UNDRR | 2025 | context | disaster risk |
| Energy policy review53 | IEA | 2023 | listed | energy context |
| Rift Valley fever notice22 | WHO | 2025 | supports | outbreak record |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Census, state and structure1 | ANSD | 2025 | supports | profile |
| Population projections2 | ANSD | 2024 | supports | profile |
| World Development Indicators356 | World Bank | 2026 | supports | economy, water, power |
| Crop and food monitoring2021 | FAO · CILSS | 2026 | supports | food |
| Malaria figures23 | national programme via press | 2026 | supports | health |
| World Malaria Report41 | WHO | 2025 | context | peer health data |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMF press releases1213 | IMF | 2026 | context | macro |
| Oil and gas reports2627 | Ministry of Energy, Petroleum and Mines via press | 2026 | supports | energy |
| Flood evaluation2425 | Ministry of Hydraulics and Sanitation via press | 2025 | supports | floods |
| Senegal 2050 agenda37 | Government of Senegal | 2024 | listed | national plan |
| Flood updates3940 | UNICEF | 2024–2025 | listed | humanitarian record |
Where the evidence agrees
- Coastal erosion and flooding are present and rising risks on Senegal’s coast19
- Electricity access has risen fast while rural access lags6
- Rift Valley fever struck the river valley in 202522
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 13International Monetary Fund (ed.), “IMF Reaches Staff-Level Agreement on an Extended Credit Facility Arrangement with Senegal,” Press Release No. 26/282, 1 September 2026 (observation year 2025). IMF, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Cited from memory as context.back
- 16Government of Senegal (ed.), Contribution déterminée au niveau national du Sénégal, document dated December 2020. Submission document hosted by the UNFCCC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 17allAfrica (ed.), “Sénégal: Lutte contre le changement climatique – Le Sénégal valide sa troisième Contribution déterminée,” 6 April 2026 (observation year 2026). allAfrica, Dakar desk. Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 18Le Soleil (ed.), “Lutte contre le changement climatique: le Sénégal valide sa troisième contribution déterminée,” 6 April 2026 (observation year 2026). Le Soleil, Dakar. Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 32Agence de Presse Sénégalaise (ed.), “Défis climatiques: le Sénégal engage la révision du 3e cycle de sa Contribution déterminée au niveau national (CDN 3.0),” 7 July 2025. APS, Dakar. Opened; only the headline and metadata were readable, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 29Government of Senegal (ed.), Loi n° 2018-25 du 12 novembre 2018 portant Code forestier. Dakar, 2018. Read on the Vie-Publique.sn record page (description only), accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 30Government of Senegal (ed.), Loi n° 2019-03 du 1er février 2019 portant Code pétrolier. Dakar, 2019. Read on the Vie-Publique.sn record page (description only), accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Senegal (ed.), Loi n° 2019-04 du 1er février 2019 relative au contenu local dans le secteur des hydrocarbures. Dakar, 2019. Cited from search-result listings only; one source gave 24 January 2019, the date of adoption.back
- 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Senegal (ed.), Gas Code, Law No. 2020-06. Dakar, 2020. Named in the IRENA energy profile [14]; the text was not opened and the exact date was not read.back
- 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Senegal (ed.), Loi n° 2021-31 du 9 juillet 2021 portant Code de l’électricité. Dakar, 2021. Cited from search-result listings of Journal Officiel n° 7446 of 5 August 2021; access to the text was refused.back
- 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Senegal (ed.), Loi n° 2021-32 du 9 juillet 2021 portant création, organisation et attributions de la Commission de régulation du secteur de l’énergie. Dakar, 2021. Cited from search-result listings only.back
- 31Government of Senegal (ed.), Loi n° 2023-15 du 2 août 2023 portant Code de l’environnement. Dakar, 2023. Read on the Vie-Publique.sn record page (description only; repeal of the 2001 Code not confirmed), accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Cited from memory as context.back
- 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Cited from memory as context.back
- 27Seneweb (ed.), “Oil and gas production figures for October 2025,” 6 November 2025, reporting the Minister of Energy, Petroleum and Mines (observation period to 31 October 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: C. H. Trisos, I. O. Adelekan, E. Totin et al., “Africa,” in Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, 2022. Cited from memory as context.back
- 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. Cited from memory as context.back
- 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Cited from memory as context.back
- 19World Bank (ed.), Senegal Country Climate and Development Report, Executive Summary (observation year 2024, published October 2024). World Bank Group, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024. WMO, Geneva, 2025. Cited from memory as context.back
- 49UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025. UNDRR, Geneva, 2025. Cited from memory as context.back
- 53UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Senegal 2023 energy policy review. IEA, Paris, 2023. Listed in search results; access to the page was refused. Exact title to be confirmed.back
- 22World Health Organization (ed.), “Rift Valley fever: Mauritania and Senegal,” Disease Outbreak News 2025-DON584, 5 November 2025 (observation period 20 September to 30 October 2025). WHO, Geneva. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 1Agence nationale de la statistique et de la démographie (ed.), “État et structure, urbanisation et caractéristiques socioculturelles de la population,” Rapport définitif, RGPH-5 2023 (observation year 2023, published 1 July 2025). ANSD, Dakar. Read on the Vie-Publique.sn record page, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 2Agence nationale de la statistique et de la démographie (ed.), Projections démographiques 2023–2073 du Sénégal (observation year 2023, published October 2024). ANSD, Dakar. Read on the Vie-Publique.sn record page, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population, urban share, age structure, GDP and growth, Senegal (observation year 2025; database update 8 October 2026). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03 through the public indicator interface.back
- 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: drinking-water, sanitation and freshwater series, Senegal (observation years 2022–2024), drawn from the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme and FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: access to electricity, electric power consumption and transmission losses, Senegal (observation years 2022–2024). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 20Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: The Republic of Senegal, reference date 3 December 2024 (observation year 2024). FAO, Rome. Latest version served at access, 2026-11-03.back
- 21CILSS, AGRHYMET and partners (eds.), Cadre Harmonisé: results of the updated projected situation of acute food and nutritional insecurity, Sahel, West Africa and Cameroon, June to August 2026, published 2 July 2026. AGRHYMET, Niamey. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 23Seneweb (ed.), “Paludisme au Sénégal: nette baisse des cas et des décès,” 25 March 2026, reporting the national malaria control programme (observation years 2024–2025). Seneweb, Dakar. Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Health Organization (ed.), World Malaria Report 2025. WHO, Geneva, December 2025. Cited from search-result summaries; the Senegal country profile was not read.back
- 12International Monetary Fund (ed.), “IMF Staff Concludes Visit to Senegal,” Press Release No. 26/216, 22 June 2026 (observation year 2025). IMF, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 26Africanews (ed.), “Senegal’s 2025 oil output exceeds predictions to reach 36.1 million barrels,” 8 January 2026, reporting the Ministry of Energy, Oil and Mines (observation year 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 24Ministry of Hydraulics and Sanitation (ed.), national evaluation workshop on the 2025 rainy season, 16 December 2025, as reported by allAfrica, “Inondations: plus de 10 millions de m³ d’eau pompés en 2025” (observation year 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 25Sud Quotidien (ed.), report on the 2025 rainy-season evaluation, 17 December 2025, distributed by allAfrica (observation year 2025). Press report, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Senegal (ed.), Sénégal 2050: Agenda national de transformation, presented 14 October 2024. Dakar, 2024. Cited from search-result descriptions of the press kit only.back
- 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNICEF (ed.), UNICEF Senegal Flash Update No. 01: Floods, October 2024. UNICEF, Dakar, 2024. Listed on ReliefWeb; access to the page was refused.back
- 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNICEF (ed.), UNICEF Senegal Humanitarian Situation Report: Floods, 17 August to 17 September 2025. UNICEF, Dakar, 2025. Listed on ReliefWeb; the contents were not read.back
- 14International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Energy Profile: Senegal (capacity 2024, generation 2023, energy supply 2022; PDF created September 2025). IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: cereal production, food production index, undernourishment, food insecurity, stunting, agriculture share, Senegal (observation years 2023–2025). World Bank, Washington DC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back