Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the 6G baseline. They are grouped by coupling and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

5 min read1 figure0 tables11 notesNR-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Connectivity is radio, compute and electricity
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Infrastructure
    3. 2.3 Finance
    4. 2.4 AIC
    5. 2.5 Energy
    6. 2.6 Governance
    7. 2.7 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Compute-heavy radio networks built ahead of Release 21
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-002

3GPP agreed in June 2026 that Release 21 is the first normative 6G release, with a Stage-3 freeze in December 2028.

Figure 2.1Release 21 milestones, months after the Stage-1 freeze of March 2027
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Stage-2 80% checkpoint (March 2028)12
Stage-2 freeze (June 2028)15
Stage-3 freeze (December 2028)21
ASN.1 and OpenAPI freeze (March 2029)24

Source: 3GPP Release 21 page3. Month counts are editor derivations, method (3).

Implication

The first 6G protocol text freezes in late 2028, so 6G radio equipment cannot be specified before then. Release 20 carries 6G studies, and its Stage-3 work for 5G-Advanced is targeted for March 20274. ITU runs a parallel process with candidate proposals to February 20292.

What would move it

The Release 21 package approval in March 2027, the ITU evaluation reports and the WRC-27 outcomes would each move this finding.

2.2Infrastructure

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-001

    ITU-R M.2160 sets research-target examples for IMT-2030 of 50, 100 and 200 Gbit/s peak data rate, 300 and 500 Mbit/s user experienced data rate, 0.1 to 1 ms air-interface latency and 1 to 10 cm positioning accuracy.1

  2. ReportedEQL 5NRF-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-002

    3GPP agreed in June 2026 that Release 21 is the first normative 6G release, with a Stage-1 freeze in March 2027, a Stage-3 freeze in December 2028 and an ASN.1 freeze in March 2029.34

  3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-003

    ITU expects candidate IMT-2030 radio interface proposals between February 2027 and February 2029, and WP 5D completed draft technical performance requirements, with 20 minimum requirements, in February 2026.2

  4. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-004

    Ericsson reports close to 3.3 billion 5G subscriptions after the second quarter of 2026 and forecasts 6.4 billion, two thirds of mobile subscriptions, by the end of 2031.6

  5. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-005

    More than 90 of about 390 service providers with commercial 5G had launched 5G standalone by mid-2026, and Ericsson cut its 2031 standalone forecast to about 3.9 billion subscriptions.6

2.3Finance

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-006

    The RAN market was stable in 2025 after losing about a fifth of its value from 2022 to 2024, supplier concentration reached a ten-year high, and Dell’Oro forecasts growth of 1% a year from 2025 to 2030.9

2.4AIC

  1. ReportedEQL 2NRF-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-AIC-007

    NVIDIA and Nokia announced on 28 October 2025 a USD 1 billion NVIDIA investment and AI-RAN products, with T-Mobile field evaluations from 2026, in a company announcement.10

2.5Energy

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-008

    A peer-reviewed survey finds that the energy cost of AI techniques in radio networks is often overlooked and that real-world power data is hard to obtain.16

  2. ReportedEQL 2NRF-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-009

    GSMA Intelligence is reported to put the radio access network at about 73% of an operator’s energy use, while another figure of 87% circulates, from search summaries.22

2.6Governance

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-010

    The European Commission proposed the Digital Networks Act on 21 January 2026, with a single passport for spectrum authorisation, an EU satellite authorisation and national copper phase-out plans.11

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-011

    The EU contributes EUR 900 million to the Smart Networks and Services Joint Undertaking for 2021 to 2027, and in March 2026 announced 20 6G research projects receiving EUR 116 million.12

2.7Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is compute-heavy radio networks built before the first normative 6G specifications settle, with energy cost unmeasured. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 33GPP (ed.), Release 21 page (timetable agreed at the June 2026 TSG#112 plenaries; first normative 6G release; Stage-3 freeze December 2028; ASN.1 freeze March 2029). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 43GPP (ed.), Release 20 page (5G-Advanced timeline; early 6G studies listed, including TR 22.870 and TR 38.914; work plan of March 2026). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 2ITU-R (ed.), IMT-2030 process page of Working Party 5D (timeline; candidate proposal window February 2027 to February 2029; draft reports 5/116 and 5/119 completed in 2026 and due for SG 5 approval in December 2026). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 1ITU-R (ed.), Recommendation ITU-R M.2160-0, Framework and overall objectives of the future development of IMT for 2030 and beyond, November 2023 (PDF opened; capability research targets in section 4). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 6Ericsson (ed.), Ericsson Mobility Report, June 2026, mobile subscriptions outlook (company report and forecast; 5G subscriptions close to 3.3 billion after Q2 2026; forecast 6.4 billion for 2031; over 90 providers with 5G standalone of about 390 with 5G; regional 5G penetration). Ericsson, Stockholm. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 9Dell’Oro Group (ed.), RAN market stabilised in 2025 (press release of 17 February 2026; analyst release; stable 2025 revenue; Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE and Samsung in unchanged order; concentration at a ten-year high; 1% a year growth forecast 2025 to 2030; about a fifth of value lost 2022 to 2024). Dell’Oro Group, Redwood City. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 10NVIDIA and Nokia (eds.), NVIDIA to invest USD 1 billion in Nokia to accelerate AI-RAN innovation (joint company press release of 28 October 2025; USD 6.01 per share; ARC-Pro platform; T-Mobile field evaluations from 2026; company announcement, weak evidence). NVIDIA, Santa Clara, and Nokia, Espoo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 16Sthankiya, K., Saeed, N., McSorley, G., Jaber, M. and Clegg, R.G., A Survey on AI-driven Energy Optimisation in Terrestrial Next Generation Radio Access Networks, IEEE Access 12, 157540 to 157555, 2024 (arXiv:2411.02164, submitted 4 November 2024; abstract page opened). IEEE, Piscataway. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: GSMA Intelligence (ed.), analysis of mobile network energy use (RAN about 73% of operator energy; energy 20% to 40% of operator operating cost), taken from search-result summaries; another figure of 87% circulates and the two are not reconciled. GSMA, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 11European Commission (ed.), Digital Networks Act policy page (proposal adopted 21 January 2026; single passport; EU satellite spectrum authorisation; copper phase-out plans; preparedness plan). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 12European Commission (ed.), Smart Networks and Services Joint Undertaking policy page (at least EUR 1.8 billion for 2021 to 2027; EUR 900 million public contribution; 20 6G research projects with EUR 116 million announced March 2026). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: 6G, AI-RAN and Next-Generation Connectivity (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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