Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 6G agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 6G edition.

5 min read0 figures6 tables3 notesNR-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Connectivity is radio, compute and electricity
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Compute-heavy radio networks built ahead of Release 21
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027: evidence pack for the 6G candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. Q-01

    What do radio sites with AI compute use in energy per bit of traffic, and how does that compare with conventional radio sites?

    INI-XT09-ENE-01 · network energy per bit; first output: footprint estimates by platform.

  2. Q-02

    How can AI-RAN performance and energy claims be compared on a common basis?

    INI-XT09-CMP-02 · AI-RAN claims on a common basis; first output: benchmark table.

  3. Q-03

    Which candidate 6G bands did WRC-27 identify, and how do regional positions differ?

    INI-XT09-SPC-03 · spectrum outcomes; first output: band overlay.

  4. Q-04

    Which chips and materials are single points of failure for radio equipment?

    INI-XT09-SUP-04 · radio supply chain; first output: dependence map.

  5. Q-05

    Which operators have committed to 5G-Advanced and 6G investment, and on what timetable?

    INI-XT09-DEP-05 · deployment and readiness; first output: commitment register.

  6. Q-06

    Which national spectrum and supplier rules differ most from the EU proposal?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: rules overlay.

  7. Q-07

    What workforce exists for radio, compute and network engineering?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

  8. Q-08

    Which readiness capabilities have been tested in real outages, and which are only planned?

    Readiness capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 connectivity portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-XT09-ENE-01Network energy per bitInitiativeQ-01PROPOSED
INI-XT09-CMP-02AI-RAN claims on a common basisInitiativeQ-02PROPOSED
INI-XT09-SPC-03Spectrum outcomes after WRC-27InitiativeQ-03PROPOSED
INI-XT09-SUP-04Radio supply chainInitiativeQ-04PROPOSED
INI-XT09-DEP-05Deployment and readinessInitiativeQ-05PROPOSED
MSN-XT09-2027-01Compute-ahead-of-standards Universe missionMissionQ-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

The connectivity edition reads national readiness chapters, the coupled sector reports on energy, semiconductors and cyber, and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed; the global energy and semiconductor editions are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

  1. 01

    National readiness chapters

    connectivity and spectrum readiness in each national edition

    IN PREPARATION · national baselines

  2. 02

    Sector couplings

    GS-02 energy · XT-06 semiconductors · XT-08 cloud and edge

    GS-02 AND XT-06 DRAFTED · sector baselines

  3. 03

    Technology system model

    radio, compute, spectrum, energy, supply chain, governance

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence

  4. 04

    Strategic links

    SR-02 lifeline systems · SR-13 strategic technology

    PLANNED · strategic baselines

  5. 05

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027

  6. 06

    XT-09 report

    this series

    BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition

  7. 07

    Evidence and correction

    one graph, many projections

    OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the 6G candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027: evidence pack for the 6G candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNED2027 global annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-XT09-2027-01 · Compute-ahead-of-standards Universe mission
Role spine
Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
INF-001 · ITU targetsINI-XT09-DEP-05deployment and readinessPUBLIC
INF-002 · Release 21INI-XT09-DEP-05deployment and readinessPUBLIC
INF-003 · ITU windowINI-XT09-SPC-03spectrum outcomesPUBLIC
FIN-006 · RAN marketINI-XT09-SUP-04radio supply chainPUBLIC
AIC-007 · AI-RANINI-XT09-CMP-02AI-RAN claims on a common basisPUBLIC
ENE-008 · energy of AIINI-XT09-ENE-01 · key F reviewnetwork energy per bitPUBLIC
GOV-010 · EU proposalregional consortiarules overlayPUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-XT09-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the federationconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
3GPP release pages3GPPper plenaryINF-002
ITU IMT-2030 process pageITUper meetingINF-003
Ericsson Mobility ReportEricssonhalf-yearlyINF-004
RAN market releasesDell’OroquarterlyFIN-006
Digital Networks Act and joint undertaking pagesEuropean Commissionper releaseGOV-010
Preprint servers and journals on network energypeer review and preprintscontinuousENE-008
Vendor announcementscompaniesper eventAIC-007

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • annual publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-XT09-001Release 21 timetable agreed in June 20263CORROBORATEDINFresearch question Q-05
SIG-XT09-002RAN supplier concentration at a ten-year high9PARTIALTRD · FINinitiative Q-04
SIG-XT09-003AI-RAN investment announcement in October 202510PARTIALAICresearch question Q-02

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 33GPP (ed.), Release 21 page (timetable agreed at the June 2026 TSG#112 plenaries; first normative 6G release; Stage-3 freeze December 2028; ASN.1 freeze March 2029). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 9Dell’Oro Group (ed.), RAN market stabilised in 2025 (press release of 17 February 2026; analyst release; stable 2025 revenue; Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE and Samsung in unchanged order; concentration at a ten-year high; 1% a year growth forecast 2025 to 2030; about a fifth of value lost 2022 to 2024). Dell’Oro Group, Redwood City. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 10NVIDIA and Nokia (eds.), NVIDIA to invest USD 1 billion in Nokia to accelerate AI-RAN innovation (joint company press release of 28 October 2025; USD 6.01 per share; ARC-Pro platform; T-Mobile field evaluations from 2026; company announcement, weak evidence). NVIDIA, Santa Clara, and Nokia, Espoo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: 6G, AI-RAN and Next-Generation Connectivity (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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