Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Risks and capability

Four 6G risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

6 min read0 figures1 table20 notesNR-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Connectivity is radio, compute and electricity
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5Compute-heavy radio networks built ahead of Release 21
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. InferredEQL 3RSK-XT09-SPC-001

    Spectrum timetable and fragmentation

    Driver
    WRC-27 decisions on candidate bands are pending and the ITU window runs to 2029225
    Exposure
    timing and cost of 6G launch
    Vulnerability
    regional differences in band choice
    Capacity
    ITU process and 3GPP timetable23
    Cascade
    GOV → INF, FIN
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years

  2. Expert inputEQL 2RSK-XT09-CMP-002

    Compute-heavy radio before standards settle

    Driver
    AI-RAN platforms announced for current networks while the first 6G release freezes in 2028310
    Exposure
    operator capital and site power
    Vulnerability
    platform lock-in; unmeasured energy cost
    Capacity
    open interfaces and common benchmarks1318
    Cascade
    AIC → ENE, FIN
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years

  3. InferredEQL 3RSK-XT09-ENE-003

    Network energy and AI load

    Driver
    traffic growth of about 2.2 times to 2031 and added AI load716
    Exposure
    operator energy cost; site power supply
    Vulnerability
    no common measure of energy per bit
    Capacity
    energy-saving methods surveyed1622
    Cascade
    ENE → INF, CLI
    Horizon
    1 to 10 years

  4. InferredEQL 3RSK-XT09-SUP-004

    Supplier concentration

    Driver
    concentration at a ten-year high9
    Exposure
    national networks; procurement choices
    Vulnerability
    few suppliers; chip and mineral inputs not mapped34
    Capacity
    open interfaces, the EU proposal and the 2020 toolbox111335
    Cascade
    TRD → INF, FIN
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence for 6G at the global level.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationEXISTSITU security and resilience aims and 3GPP security study items14
Monitoring and observationLISTEDno common tracker of AI-RAN claims or network energy
Early warningLISTEDspectrum and standards watching by agencies is not consolidated
Preparedness and planningEXISTSITU and 3GPP timetables; EU proposal2311
Redundancy and reservesLISTEDsite power and supplier redundancy are not documented
ResponseLISTEDno tested response to a sudden supplier or spectrum change
Continuity of critical servicesLISTEDnetwork resilience is an ITU design aim; tests not reported1
RecoveryLISTEDnot applicable at baseline; no event to recover from
AdaptationEXISTSopen interfaces and software upgrades are stated aims1310
Social protectionLISTEDnot applicable at baseline
Finance and insuranceEXISTSoperator capital and EU research funding912
Institutional coordinationEXISTSITU, 3GPP, ETSI and the EU231511
Technical infrastructureEXISTSlarge 5G base and growing standalone share6
WorkforceLISTEDskills gaps not bound; no figure
Research capacityADEQUATEstrong peer-reviewed base on sensing and open interfaces181920
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 2ITU-R (ed.), IMT-2030 process page of Working Party 5D (timeline; candidate proposal window February 2027 to February 2029; draft reports 5/116 and 5/119 completed in 2026 and due for SG 5 approval in December 2026). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: ITU (ed.), World Radiocommunication Conference 2023 final acts and Resolution 256 on agenda item 1.7 (IMT in 4400 to 4800 MHz, 7125 to 8400 MHz and 14.8 to 15.35 GHz), taken from conference slides and national briefs in search results. International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 33GPP (ed.), Release 21 page (timetable agreed at the June 2026 TSG#112 plenaries; first normative 6G release; Stage-3 freeze December 2028; ASN.1 freeze March 2029). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 10NVIDIA and Nokia (eds.), NVIDIA to invest USD 1 billion in Nokia to accelerate AI-RAN innovation (joint company press release of 28 October 2025; USD 6.01 per share; ARC-Pro platform; T-Mobile field evaluations from 2026; company announcement, weak evidence). NVIDIA, Santa Clara, and Nokia, Espoo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 13O-RAN Alliance (ed.), About page (founded February 2018 by AT&T, China Mobile, Deutsche Telekom, NTT DOCOMO and Orange; German entity since August 2018; no member count or AI statement on the page). O-RAN Alliance, Alfter. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 18Polese, M., Bonati, L., D’Oro, S., Basagni, S. and Melodia, T., Understanding O-RAN: Architecture, Interfaces, Algorithms, Security, and Research Challenges, arXiv:2202.01032, submitted 2 February 2022 (abstract page opened). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 7Ericsson (ed.), Ericsson Mobility Report, June 2026, mobile traffic forecast (company forecast; 146 EB per month excluding FWA at the end of 2025; 328 EB per month in 2031; 22 GB per active smartphone per month in 2025). Ericsson, Stockholm. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 16Sthankiya, K., Saeed, N., McSorley, G., Jaber, M. and Clegg, R.G., A Survey on AI-driven Energy Optimisation in Terrestrial Next Generation Radio Access Networks, IEEE Access 12, 157540 to 157555, 2024 (arXiv:2411.02164, submitted 4 November 2024; abstract page opened). IEEE, Piscataway. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: GSMA Intelligence (ed.), analysis of mobile network energy use (RAN about 73% of operator energy; energy 20% to 40% of operator operating cost), taken from search-result summaries; another figure of 87% circulates and the two are not reconciled. GSMA, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 9Dell’Oro Group (ed.), RAN market stabilised in 2025 (press release of 17 February 2026; analyst release; stable 2025 revenue; Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE and Samsung in unchanged order; concentration at a ten-year high; 1% a year growth forecast 2025 to 2030; about a fifth of value lost 2022 to 2024). Dell’Oro Group, Redwood City. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026, which returned an access error when fetched; no figure taken from it. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 11European Commission (ed.), Digital Networks Act policy page (proposal adopted 21 January 2026; single passport; EU satellite spectrum authorisation; copper phase-out plans; preparedness plan). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission and NIS Cooperation Group (eds.), Cybersecurity of 5G networks, EU toolbox of risk mitigating measures, January 2020, cited from memory; the policy page returned not-found. Brussels. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 1ITU-R (ed.), Recommendation ITU-R M.2160-0, Framework and overall objectives of the future development of IMT for 2030 and beyond, November 2023 (PDF opened; capability research targets in section 4). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 43GPP (ed.), Release 20 page (5G-Advanced timeline; early 6G studies listed, including TR 22.870 and TR 38.914; work plan of March 2026). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 12European Commission (ed.), Smart Networks and Services Joint Undertaking policy page (at least EUR 1.8 billion for 2021 to 2027; EUR 900 million public contribution; 20 6G research projects with EUR 116 million announced March 2026). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 15ETSI (ed.), Industry Specification Group on Integrated Sensing and Communications, technology page (pre-standards coordination; reports ETSI GR ISC 003 announced 26 February 2026 and ETSI GR ISC 004 announced 2 March 2026). European Telecommunications Standards Institute, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 6Ericsson (ed.), Ericsson Mobility Report, June 2026, mobile subscriptions outlook (company report and forecast; 5G subscriptions close to 3.3 billion after Q2 2026; forecast 6.4 billion for 2031; over 90 providers with 5G standalone of about 390 with 5G; regional 5G penetration). Ericsson, Stockholm. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 19Liu, F., Cui, Y., Masouros, C., Xu, J., Han, T.X., Eldar, Y.C. and Buzzi, S., Integrated Sensing and Communications: Towards Dual-functional Wireless Networks for 6G and Beyond, arXiv:2108.07165, submitted 16 August 2021 (abstract page opened). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 20Liu, A. et al., A Survey on Fundamental Limits of Integrated Sensing and Communication, arXiv:2104.09954, submitted 16 April 2021 (abstract page opened). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: 6G, AI-RAN and Next-Generation Connectivity (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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