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Connectivity is radio, compute and electricity

Part I describes systems and their couplings. It ranks no country or operator and assesses no authority.

6 min read2 figures1 table9 notesNR-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Connectivity is radio, compute and electricity
    1. 1.1 The questions this part answers
    2. 1.2 The argument
    3. 1.3 Twenty couplings between five systems
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Compute-heavy radio networks built ahead of Release 21
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

  • Where is 6G risk concentrated?
  • Which couplings carry 6G shocks into other systems?
  • Which 6G capabilities hold under compound stress?
  • What must 2027 evidence measure first?

In this part

  • Narrative
  • Headline finding
  • Lead figure
  • Five footprint and governance chapters
  • Twelve-domain reading
  • Sector screens
  • Dependency matrix
  • Risk objects
  • Capability ladder
  • Scenario
  • Three lenses
  • Portfolio

1.2The argument

Next-generation connectivity is usually discussed as a speed race. The 2026 evidence reads it as physical infrastructure: radio sites, spectrum, compute platforms and electricity that every other system depends on169.

The standards path is dated. ITU set research-target examples of up to 200 Gbit/s peak rate in 20231. 3GPP planned its first normative 6G release for a Stage-3 freeze in December 20283, and ITU expects candidate proposals between February 2027 and February 20292. These are targets and plans, not deployed networks.

Deployment is still 5G. Close to 3.3 billion subscriptions existed after the second quarter of 2026, and more than 90 providers had launched standalone 5G6. The equipment market was stable in 2025, and supplier concentration reached a ten-year high9.

AI-RAN and energy are the least measured parts. The evidence for AI-RAN is a company announcement10. A survey finds that the energy cost of AI in radio networks is often overlooked16, and no common measure of energy per bit for such platforms was found.

Figure 1.1How far do IMT-2030 research targets go beyond IMT-2020? User experienced data rate, Mbit/s

ITU gives 300 and 500 Mbit/s as possible research targets for user experienced data rate, against 100 Mbit/s in the earlier framework. The values are examples for research and apply to some usage scenarios only1.

ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
IMT-2020 reference100
IMT-2030 example300
IMT-2030 example500

Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2023.

Figure ID FIG-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-01-003

500Mbit/s

highest example, user experienced rate1

100Mbit/s

IMT-2020 reference1

50Mbit/s/m²

highest area traffic capacity example1

10Mbit/s/m²

IMT-2020 reference1

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The 6G-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems, read for their 6G content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.

Figure 1.2Couplings between the five systems

Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.

  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Weak

Source: this edition’s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.

Table 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
From, toWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT Water·WEAK
site cooling		WEAK
no documented link		WEAK
no documented link		WEAK
no documented link
ENE EnergyWEAK
cooling load		·WEAK
no documented link		WEAK
no documented link		WEAK
no documented link
FOO FoodWEAK
no documented link		WEAK
no documented link		·WEAK
no documented link		WEAK
no documented link
HLT HealthWEAK
no documented link		WEAK
connectivity of care sites		WEAK
no documented link		·WEAK
no documented link
BIO BiodiversityWEAK
no documented link		WEAK
no documented link		WEAK
no documented link		WEAK
no documented link		·
Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.

Transmission paths

  1. 01

    TRD → INF

    Supplier concentration and rules shape which radio and compute platforms operators can buy.

    Reported RAN concentration9; EU proposal11

  2. 02

    AIC → ENE

    Compute-heavy radio sites raise power demand if AI load is added.

    Inferred survey on the energy cost of AI16

  3. 03

    INF → DAT

    Sensing and positioning turn base stations into data sources.

    Inferred ITU targets1; sensing survey19

  4. 04

    FIN → INF

    Operator investment in 5G sets the base for 6G.

    Reported RAN market9; Ericsson forecast6

  5. 05

    GOV → INF

    Spectrum and standards decisions set timing.

    Reported ITU process2; 3GPP3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1ITU-R (ed.), Recommendation ITU-R M.2160-0, Framework and overall objectives of the future development of IMT for 2030 and beyond, November 2023 (PDF opened; capability research targets in section 4). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 6Ericsson (ed.), Ericsson Mobility Report, June 2026, mobile subscriptions outlook (company report and forecast; 5G subscriptions close to 3.3 billion after Q2 2026; forecast 6.4 billion for 2031; over 90 providers with 5G standalone of about 390 with 5G; regional 5G penetration). Ericsson, Stockholm. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 9Dell’Oro Group (ed.), RAN market stabilised in 2025 (press release of 17 February 2026; analyst release; stable 2025 revenue; Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE and Samsung in unchanged order; concentration at a ten-year high; 1% a year growth forecast 2025 to 2030; about a fifth of value lost 2022 to 2024). Dell’Oro Group, Redwood City. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 33GPP (ed.), Release 21 page (timetable agreed at the June 2026 TSG#112 plenaries; first normative 6G release; Stage-3 freeze December 2028; ASN.1 freeze March 2029). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 2ITU-R (ed.), IMT-2030 process page of Working Party 5D (timeline; candidate proposal window February 2027 to February 2029; draft reports 5/116 and 5/119 completed in 2026 and due for SG 5 approval in December 2026). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 10NVIDIA and Nokia (eds.), NVIDIA to invest USD 1 billion in Nokia to accelerate AI-RAN innovation (joint company press release of 28 October 2025; USD 6.01 per share; ARC-Pro platform; T-Mobile field evaluations from 2026; company announcement, weak evidence). NVIDIA, Santa Clara, and Nokia, Espoo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 16Sthankiya, K., Saeed, N., McSorley, G., Jaber, M. and Clegg, R.G., A Survey on AI-driven Energy Optimisation in Terrestrial Next Generation Radio Access Networks, IEEE Access 12, 157540 to 157555, 2024 (arXiv:2411.02164, submitted 4 November 2024; abstract page opened). IEEE, Piscataway. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 11European Commission (ed.), Digital Networks Act policy page (proposal adopted 21 January 2026; single passport; EU satellite spectrum authorisation; copper phase-out plans; preparedness plan). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 19Liu, F., Cui, Y., Masouros, C., Xu, J., Han, T.X., Eldar, Y.C. and Buzzi, S., Integrated Sensing and Communications: Towards Dual-functional Wireless Networks for 6G and Beyond, arXiv:2108.07165, submitted 16 August 2021 (abstract page opened). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 1: Connectivity is radio, compute and electricity. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: 6G, AI-RAN and Next-Generation Connectivity (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind 6G, AI-RAN and Next-Generation Connectivity.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

Signature

Energy and its partners

Energy gives power for transport and telecoms to infrastructure (0.8), pumping and treatment to water (0.5) and fertiliser, machinery and cold chains to food (0.5).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Energy → Infrastructure · power for transport and telecoms0.8
  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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