Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

6 min read1 figure0 tables10 notesNR-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
    1. S.1 Abstract
    2. S.2 Key messages
    3. S.3 Headline finding
    4. S.4 At a glance
    5. S.5 What each steward reads in it
    6. S.6 What this edition is, and is not
  3. 1Connectivity is radio, compute and electricity
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Compute-heavy radio networks built ahead of Release 21
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

S.1Abstract

Next-generation connectivity matters to the Nexus programme as physical infrastructure. Mobile networks are radio sites, backhaul, compute, spectrum and electricity, and they carry the traffic of every other system. The standards path is now dated. ITU-R set the IMT-2030 framework in November 2023, with research-target examples of 50, 100 and 200 Gbit/s peak data rate against 20 Gbit/s for IMT-20201. 3GPP agreed in June 2026 that Release 21 is the first normative 6G release, with a Stage-3 freeze in December 20283. ITU expects candidate technology proposals between February 2027 and February 20292. Today’s base is 5G. Ericsson counts close to 3.3 billion 5G subscriptions after the second quarter of 2026 and forecasts 6.4 billion by the end of 20316. The RAN equipment market was stable in 2025 after losing about a fifth of its value from 2022 to 2024, and supplier concentration reached a ten-year high9. AI-RAN is the newest link between radio and compute. The evidence for it is a company announcement of October 2025, in which NVIDIA stated a USD 1 billion investment in Nokia10, and a survey that finds the energy cost of AI in radio networks often overlooked16. Energy, chips, minerals and workforce are thinly measured. This baseline sets out what the evidence supports and where it is thin. It forecasts no launch date and orders no country or vendor.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the 6G baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  1. IMT-2030 is the ITU framework, with research targets; 3GPP Release 21 is the first normative 6G release.13

    What is 6G?Reported

  2. The Stage-3 freeze is planned for December 2028; ITU proposals run to February 2029.23

    When do the standards settle?Reported

  3. Close to 3.3 billion subscriptions after Q2 2026.6

    How far has 5G come?Reported

  4. Stable in 2025 and concentrated; 1% a year growth forecast.9

    What does the equipment market look like?Reported

  5. A company announcement and a survey; no independent measurement was found.1016

    What is AI-RAN evidence?Reported

  6. Not published for AI-RAN platforms; the energy cost of AI is often overlooked.16

    What is the energy footprint?Reported

  7. A Digital Networks Act and EUR 900 million of public funding for 6G research.1112

    What does Europe propose?Reported

  8. Compute-heavy radio built ahead of the standards, with energy cost unmeasured. SCN-XT09-CMP-01

    What will 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-002

3GPP agreed in June 2026 that Release 21 is the first normative 6G release, with a Stage-3 freeze in December 2028.

Figure S.1Release 21 milestones, months after the Stage-1 freeze of March 2027
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Stage-2 80% checkpoint (March 2028)12
Stage-2 freeze (June 2028)15
Stage-3 freeze (December 2028)21
ASN.1 and OpenAPI freeze (March 2029)24

Source: 3GPP Release 21 page3. Month counts are editor derivations, method (3).

The first 6G protocol text freezes in late 2028, so 6G radio equipment cannot be specified before then. Release 20 carries 6G studies, and its Stage-3 work for 5G-Advanced is targeted for March 20274. ITU runs a parallel process with candidate proposals to February 20292.

S.4At a glance

200Gbit/s

peak rate example1

2028December

Release 21 Stage-3 freeze3

3.3billion

5G subscriptions, Q2 20266

90providers

more than, with 5G standalone6

1% a year

RAN market forecast9

900EUR million

EU 6G joint undertaking12

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports reading next-generation connectivity as physical infrastructure on a dated standards path.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people the story arrives as a headline about speed or a phone label.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. The equipment market is stable and concentrated, public research funding is modest and operator investment plans are not bound.

NEXUS

Synthesis

Connectivity is well described by standards timetables and thinly measured as a physical system.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the 2026 state of 6G and next-generation connectivity as infrastructure and the couplings through which it carries risk into other systems. It synthesises published evidence and ranks no country, company or asset.

What it is not

Not a forecast of when 6G will launch, a technology or vendor comparison, an endorsement of any company or an assessment of any programme. Standards, spectrum and supplier rules are decisions of competent bodies.

What comes next

National, regional and sector evidence feeds the 2027 6G edition through the federation. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline: observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1ITU-R (ed.), Recommendation ITU-R M.2160-0, Framework and overall objectives of the future development of IMT for 2030 and beyond, November 2023 (PDF opened; capability research targets in section 4). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 33GPP (ed.), Release 21 page (timetable agreed at the June 2026 TSG#112 plenaries; first normative 6G release; Stage-3 freeze December 2028; ASN.1 freeze March 2029). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 2ITU-R (ed.), IMT-2030 process page of Working Party 5D (timeline; candidate proposal window February 2027 to February 2029; draft reports 5/116 and 5/119 completed in 2026 and due for SG 5 approval in December 2026). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 6Ericsson (ed.), Ericsson Mobility Report, June 2026, mobile subscriptions outlook (company report and forecast; 5G subscriptions close to 3.3 billion after Q2 2026; forecast 6.4 billion for 2031; over 90 providers with 5G standalone of about 390 with 5G; regional 5G penetration). Ericsson, Stockholm. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 9Dell’Oro Group (ed.), RAN market stabilised in 2025 (press release of 17 February 2026; analyst release; stable 2025 revenue; Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE and Samsung in unchanged order; concentration at a ten-year high; 1% a year growth forecast 2025 to 2030; about a fifth of value lost 2022 to 2024). Dell’Oro Group, Redwood City. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 10NVIDIA and Nokia (eds.), NVIDIA to invest USD 1 billion in Nokia to accelerate AI-RAN innovation (joint company press release of 28 October 2025; USD 6.01 per share; ARC-Pro platform; T-Mobile field evaluations from 2026; company announcement, weak evidence). NVIDIA, Santa Clara, and Nokia, Espoo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 16Sthankiya, K., Saeed, N., McSorley, G., Jaber, M. and Clegg, R.G., A Survey on AI-driven Energy Optimisation in Terrestrial Next Generation Radio Access Networks, IEEE Access 12, 157540 to 157555, 2024 (arXiv:2411.02164, submitted 4 November 2024; abstract page opened). IEEE, Piscataway. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 11European Commission (ed.), Digital Networks Act policy page (proposal adopted 21 January 2026; single passport; EU satellite spectrum authorisation; copper phase-out plans; preparedness plan). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 12European Commission (ed.), Smart Networks and Services Joint Undertaking policy page (at least EUR 1.8 billion for 2021 to 2027; EUR 900 million public contribution; 20 6G research projects with EUR 116 million announced March 2026). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 43GPP (ed.), Release 20 page (5G-Advanced timeline; early 6G studies listed, including TR 22.870 and TR 38.914; work plan of March 2026). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this summary

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Executive summary: Executive summary. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: 6G, AI-RAN and Next-Generation Connectivity (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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