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Systems and sectors at baseline

7 min read0 figures2 tables18 notesNR-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Connectivity is radio, compute and electricity
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Compute-heavy radio networks built ahead of Release 21
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

INF · Standards

Release 21 Stage-3 freeze, first normative 6G release

2028December

ASN.1 freeze follows in March 2029.

Reported20263GPP3

INF · Targets

IMT-2030 peak data rate, highest research example

200Gbit/s

IMT-2020 reference is 20 Gbit/s.

Reported2023ITU-R1

INF · Deployment

5G subscriptions after the second quarter of 2026

3.3billion

close to one third of mobile subscriptions at the end of 2025.

Reported2026Ericsson6

FIN · Market

RAN market growth forecast, 2025 to 2030

1% a year

after losing about a fifth of value from 2022 to 2024.

Reported2025Dell’Oro9

GOV · Public funding

EU contribution to the 6G joint undertaking, 2021 to 2027

900EUR million

private members are expected to at least match it.

Reported2026European Commission12

SYS · Cross-system

ITU window for candidate IMT-2030 proposals closes

2029February

the window opens in February 2027.

Reported2026ITU2

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through 6G, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries 6G risk into each domain.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATNo documented coupling at baseline; cooling-water use of radio and compute sites is not published.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
ENENetworks are large electricity users; AI-RAN energy per bit is unpublished and the energy cost of AI is often overlooked1622.ENE ↔ INFReported EQL 3
FOONo documented coupling at baseline; precision-agriculture claims are not evidenced here.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
HLTNo documented coupling at baseline; remote-care claims are not evidenced here.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
BIONo documented coupling at baseline.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
CLINetwork energy matters for emissions; ITU names sustainability a design aim; no figure bound1.INF → CLIInferred EQL 2
INFThe core system: dated ITU and 3GPP paths, 5G at close to 3.3 billion subscriptions, no 6G network yet136.the core systemReported EQL 5
FINA stable RAN market growing 1% a year; EUR 900 million of EU public research funding912.FIN → INFReported EQL 3
DATSensing and positioning make base stations data sources; privacy and security work is at study stage415.INF → DATInferred EQL 2
AICAI-RAN couples radio networks to compute platforms; evidence is a company announcement and a survey1016.AIC ↔ INFReported EQL 2
MINNo figure bound for the minerals and chips behind radio equipment.MIN → INFExpert input EQL 1
TRDSupplier concentration at a ten-year high; spectrum and supplier rules shape access911.INF ↔ TRDReported EQL 3

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on 6G, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemconnectivity couples to energy, compute, spectrum and supplycompute and energy lock-inTHIN
GS-01Watercooling-water use not publishedfacility sitingTHIN
GS-02Energynetwork energy per bit unpublished1622power demand of radio and compute sitesTHIN
GS-03Foodno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-04Healthno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-05FinanceRAN market growing 1% a year9return on 6G investmentPARTIAL
GS-06Development2.2 billion people offline in 20258coverage gaps persistPARTIAL
GS-07Climatefootprint at scale not boundenergy demandTHIN
GS-08Disasterresilience is an ITU design aim1outage cascadesTHIN
GS-09Infrastructureradio sites and compute platforms910single-supplier dependencePARTIAL
GS-10Citiessensing and positioning in urban networks1519privacy exposureTHIN
GS-11Biodiversityno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-12Earth observationnon-terrestrial links in 3GPP releases14orbital spectrum sharingTHIN
GS-13Cyber and digitalsecurity study items in Release 204supply-chain and AI-model securityPARTIAL
GS-14PolicyEU proposal and joint undertaking1112national divergence on spectrum and suppliersPARTIAL
GS-15Sciencepeer-reviewed surveys on sensing and open interfaces18192021few measured deploymentsGOOD

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 33GPP (ed.), Release 21 page (timetable agreed at the June 2026 TSG#112 plenaries; first normative 6G release; Stage-3 freeze December 2028; ASN.1 freeze March 2029). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 1ITU-R (ed.), Recommendation ITU-R M.2160-0, Framework and overall objectives of the future development of IMT for 2030 and beyond, November 2023 (PDF opened; capability research targets in section 4). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 6Ericsson (ed.), Ericsson Mobility Report, June 2026, mobile subscriptions outlook (company report and forecast; 5G subscriptions close to 3.3 billion after Q2 2026; forecast 6.4 billion for 2031; over 90 providers with 5G standalone of about 390 with 5G; regional 5G penetration). Ericsson, Stockholm. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 9Dell’Oro Group (ed.), RAN market stabilised in 2025 (press release of 17 February 2026; analyst release; stable 2025 revenue; Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE and Samsung in unchanged order; concentration at a ten-year high; 1% a year growth forecast 2025 to 2030; about a fifth of value lost 2022 to 2024). Dell’Oro Group, Redwood City. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 12European Commission (ed.), Smart Networks and Services Joint Undertaking policy page (at least EUR 1.8 billion for 2021 to 2027; EUR 900 million public contribution; 20 6G research projects with EUR 116 million announced March 2026). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 2ITU-R (ed.), IMT-2030 process page of Working Party 5D (timeline; candidate proposal window February 2027 to February 2029; draft reports 5/116 and 5/119 completed in 2026 and due for SG 5 approval in December 2026). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 16Sthankiya, K., Saeed, N., McSorley, G., Jaber, M. and Clegg, R.G., A Survey on AI-driven Energy Optimisation in Terrestrial Next Generation Radio Access Networks, IEEE Access 12, 157540 to 157555, 2024 (arXiv:2411.02164, submitted 4 November 2024; abstract page opened). IEEE, Piscataway. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: GSMA Intelligence (ed.), analysis of mobile network energy use (RAN about 73% of operator energy; energy 20% to 40% of operator operating cost), taken from search-result summaries; another figure of 87% circulates and the two are not reconciled. GSMA, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 43GPP (ed.), Release 20 page (5G-Advanced timeline; early 6G studies listed, including TR 22.870 and TR 38.914; work plan of March 2026). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 15ETSI (ed.), Industry Specification Group on Integrated Sensing and Communications, technology page (pre-standards coordination; reports ETSI GR ISC 003 announced 26 February 2026 and ETSI GR ISC 004 announced 2 March 2026). European Telecommunications Standards Institute, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 10NVIDIA and Nokia (eds.), NVIDIA to invest USD 1 billion in Nokia to accelerate AI-RAN innovation (joint company press release of 28 October 2025; USD 6.01 per share; ARC-Pro platform; T-Mobile field evaluations from 2026; company announcement, weak evidence). NVIDIA, Santa Clara, and Nokia, Espoo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 11European Commission (ed.), Digital Networks Act policy page (proposal adopted 21 January 2026; single passport; EU satellite spectrum authorisation; copper phase-out plans; preparedness plan). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 8ITU (ed.), Facts and Figures 2025 (almost three quarters of the world online; 2.2 billion offline; 5G coverage above half of the population; page read, no absolute online count stated). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 19Liu, F., Cui, Y., Masouros, C., Xu, J., Han, T.X., Eldar, Y.C. and Buzzi, S., Integrated Sensing and Communications: Towards Dual-functional Wireless Networks for 6G and Beyond, arXiv:2108.07165, submitted 16 August 2021 (abstract page opened). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 143GPP (ed.), Non-terrestrial networks overview (first normative requirements in Release 17; Release 19 core completed September 2025 and performance March 2026). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 18Polese, M., Bonati, L., D’Oro, S., Basagni, S. and Melodia, T., Understanding O-RAN: Architecture, Interfaces, Algorithms, Security, and Research Challenges, arXiv:2202.01032, submitted 2 February 2022 (abstract page opened). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 20Liu, A. et al., A Survey on Fundamental Limits of Integrated Sensing and Communication, arXiv:2104.09954, submitted 16 April 2021 (abstract page opened). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 21Zhang, D. et al., Integrated Sensing and Communications Over the Years: An Evolution Perspective, arXiv:2504.06830, submitted 9 April 2025, version 4 of 19 January 2026 (abstract page opened). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: 6G, AI-RAN and Next-Generation Connectivity (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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