Readings from the other desks

The 6G baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.

14 min read0 figures8 tables33 notesNR-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

Desk	Edition	State
GCRI Systems Evidence	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
GRF Public Deliberation	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
GRA Capital Readiness	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
Standards Progress	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
Academy Capability	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
Index Measurement	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports reading next-generation connectivity as physical infrastructure on a dated standards path. Targets and timetables are published, deployment is still 5G, and the footprint of AI-RAN is unmeasured. Evidence is strongest for standards texts and subscription counts, and weakest for energy, supply chains and AI-RAN performance.

INF-001 · INF-002 · INF-004 · SYS-012

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people the story arrives as a headline about speed or a phone label. The baseline asks that public debate separate targets from deployed networks and company announcements, and keep coverage gaps in view: 2.2 billion people were offline in 2025⁸.

INF-001 · INF-004 · AIC-007

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. The equipment market is stable and concentrated, public research funding is modest and operator investment plans are not bound⁹¹². These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.

FIN-006 · GOV-011

NEXUS

Synthesis

Connectivity is well described by standards timetables and thinly measured as a physical system. The 2027 programme should publish a comparable energy footprint, bind the WRC-27 outcomes and test the compute-ahead-of-standards pathway.

SYS-012 · Q-01 · Q-02

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for 6G. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

Table 6.1The quarterly rhythm every edition follows
Quarter	Edition	Question	Boundary
Q1	State and Agenda	What matters this year, and what is the starting position?	observed baseline stays distinct from planned work
Q2	Evidence and Build	What new evidence and capability exist?	a configured capability is not a validated result
Q3	Stress Test and Readiness	What do scenarios and tests show?	simulated loss or performance is not observed impact
Q4	Annual Synthesis and Renewal	What changed in the year, and what renews?	release follows review, not event publicity deadlines

Table 6.2Who contributes what each quarter
Steward or body	Role	Contribution route
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI Canada)	Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T)	science and practice communities · GCRI gateway
The Global Risks Forum (GRF)	leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M)	policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway
The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)	finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F)	finance and insurance · GRA gateway
Nexus Standards	preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods	Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI
Risk Academy	learning pathways tied to the agenda questions	Academy gateway · learning by review
Nexus Standards and Academy	technology chapter inputs: GCRI evidence, NXS standards, RA capability	technology editorial board

Standards drafts used in this edition

Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech

Standards calendar to watch

Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

ITU and 3GPP publish targets and timetables for 6G. Deployed networks are 5G. Keeping the two apart avoids both hype and complacency.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

Targets are not networks

A standards text, a market release and a company announcement carry different weight. This edition labels each, and asks for a common basis before AI-RAN claims are compared.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

Separate results, plans and claims

Radio sites, compute, spectrum and electricity are rarely counted together. A published energy footprint would show whether scale is limited by power, supply or money.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

The footprint is the blind spot

Spectrum decisions, supplier rules and public funding shape timing as much as technology. The EU proposal and WRC-27 are the nearest tests.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

Governance sets the pace

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 6G readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Table 6.32027 6G readiness pack
Item	Register	State at baseline	First 2027 entry
E1	6G risk state delta	baseline set by this edition	changes against the baseline
E2	WEFH+B state delta	five global system readings set	indicator updates and freshness
E3	Agenda and Portfolio movement	eight agenda items · 6 proposed objects	admission decisions
E4	Federation delivery register	national chapters in preparation	national chapters
E5	Consortium capability register	national consortia forming	first contributions
E6	Leadership questions and challenges	none yet	first challenge log
E7	Foundry technical state	national environments prepared	first federation cut
E8	Publication candidates	twelve findings carried forward	PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions
E9	Universe readiness	one candidate mission	admission and role spine
E10	Correction register	none	first federation-wide cycle

Publication dispositions

Publish
Hold
Needs evidence
Restricted
Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

IN FORCE
PUBLISHED
DRAFT
PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

Table 6.4Standards and regulatory watch
Instrument	Body	Scope	Status	Relevance
ITU-R M.2160 IMT-2030 framework¹	ITU-R	global	PUBLISHED 2023	research targets and usage scenarios
ITU-R M.2516 technology trends²⁶	ITU-R	global	PUBLISHED 2022	technology trends
ITU-R M.2541 bands above 100 GHz²⁷	ITU-R	global	PUBLISHED 2024	feasibility
3GPP Release 20 6G studies⁴²⁸²⁹	3GPP	global	STUDY PHASE	requirements and scenarios
3GPP Release 21³	3GPP	global	PLANNED 2027 TO 2029	first normative 6G release
ETSI ISAC group¹⁵	ETSI	Europe	PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY	sensing reports
O-RAN specifications¹³	O-RAN Alliance	global	PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY	open interfaces
Digital Networks Act proposal¹¹	European Commission	EU	PROPOSED 2026	spectrum and networks
WRC-27 agenda item 1.7²⁵	ITU	global	PENDING 2027	bands for IMT
EU 5G toolbox³⁵	European Commission and Member States	EU	PUBLISHED 2020 · VOLUNTARY	supplier security

Changed since 2024

3GPP agreed the Release 21 timetable at its June 2026 plenaries³
ITU WP 5D completed draft requirements and evaluation guidelines in 2026²
The European Commission proposed the Digital Networks Act in January 2026¹¹

To watch in 2027

SG 5 approval of the IMT-2030 reports in December 2026²
The Release 21 package approval in March 2027³
Council and Parliament work on the Digital Networks Act¹¹

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers 6G assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.

Review protocol

Question: What does the published evidence establish about 6G and next-generation connectivity as infrastructure and its couplings?
Sources searched: peer-reviewed journals and preprints; standards bodies; policy pages; market and company releases
Window: releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
Selection: sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
Next step: systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027

Table 6.5Peer-reviewed science and preprints
Reference	Type	Year	Role	Used for
Sthankiya et al.¹⁶	journal article	2024	supports	energy cost of AI
Saad, Bennis and Chen¹⁷	journal article	2019	framework	early 6G vision
Polese et al.¹⁸	preprint	2022	supports	open RAN architecture
Liu et al.¹⁹	preprint	2021	supports	sensing and communication
Liu et al.²⁰	preprint	2021	context	sensing limits
Zhang et al.²¹	preprint	2025	context	sensing evolution
Rappaport et al.⁴¹	journal article	2019	context	bands above 100 GHz

Table 6.6Standards texts and committees
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
ITU-R M.2160¹	ITU-R	2023	supports	IMT-2030 framework
ITU-R M.2516²⁶	ITU-R	2022	context	technology trends
ITU-R M.2541²⁷	ITU-R	2024	context	bands above 100 GHz
3GPP TR 22.870²⁸	3GPP	2026	context	use cases
3GPP TR 38.914²⁹	3GPP	2026	context	radio scenarios
ETSI ISAC pages¹⁵	ETSI	2026	context	sensing reports
3GPP NTN pages¹⁴	3GPP	2026	context	satellite links

Table 6.7Policy, spectrum and strategies
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Digital Networks Act page¹¹	European Commission	2026	supports	proposal
Joint undertaking page¹²	European Commission	2026	supports	public funding
WRC-23 and item 1.7²⁵	ITU	2023	context	spectrum
National Spectrum Strategy³⁷	US government	2023	context	spectrum policy
IMT-2030 Promotion Group³⁹	China	2023	context	national programme

Table 6.8Market, supply and company statements
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Ericsson Mobility Report⁶⁷	Ericsson	2026	supports	subscriptions and traffic
Dell’Oro RAN release⁹	Dell’Oro	2026	supports	market
Omdia RAN market²³	Omdia	2026	context	market
Omdia AI-RAN projection²⁴	Omdia	2025	context	weak projection
NVIDIA and Nokia announcement¹⁰	NVIDIA and Nokia	2025	context	company claim
ABI Research on GPUs³¹	ABI Research	2025	context	performance doubts
Next G Alliance roadmap³⁸	Next G Alliance	2022	context	industry roadmap

Where the evidence agrees

Release 21 is the first normative 6G release and the ITU window runs to 2029²³
The 5G base is large and still growing⁶
The energy cost of AI in radio networks is often overlooked¹⁶

Where it is unsettled

Whether AI-RAN platforms save or add energy over conventional radio¹⁰¹⁶³¹
Which bands WRC-27 will identify for 6G²⁵
How large the market for AI-RAN will be²⁴

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

8ITU (ed.), Facts and Figures 2025 (almost three quarters of the world online; 2.2 billion offline; 5G coverage above half of the population; page read, no absolute online count stated). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9Dell’Oro Group (ed.), RAN market stabilised in 2025 (press release of 17 February 2026; analyst release; stable 2025 revenue; Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE and Samsung in unchanged order; concentration at a ten-year high; 1% a year growth forecast 2025 to 2030; about a fifth of value lost 2022 to 2024). Dell’Oro Group, Redwood City. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12European Commission (ed.), Smart Networks and Services Joint Undertaking policy page (at least EUR 1.8 billion for 2021 to 2027; EUR 900 million public contribution; 20 6G research projects with EUR 116 million announced March 2026). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
1ITU-R (ed.), Recommendation ITU-R M.2160-0, Framework and overall objectives of the future development of IMT for 2030 and beyond, November 2023 (PDF opened; capability research targets in section 4). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26UNVERIFIED, not opened: ITU-R (ed.), Report ITU-R M.2516, Future technology trends of terrestrial IMT systems towards 2030 and beyond, December 2022, named in Recommendation M.2160 and the ITU process page. International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27UNVERIFIED, not opened: ITU-R (ed.), Report ITU-R M.2541, technical feasibility of IMT in bands above 100 GHz, 2024, named on the ITU process page. International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
43GPP (ed.), Release 20 page (5G-Advanced timeline; early 6G studies listed, including TR 22.870 and TR 38.914; work plan of March 2026). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28UNVERIFIED, not opened: 3GPP (ed.), TR 22.870, Study on 6G use cases and service requirements, named on the Release 20 and 21 pages as completed in Release 20. 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29UNVERIFIED, not opened: 3GPP (ed.), TR 38.914, 6G scenarios and requirements, named on the Release 20 and 21 pages. 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33GPP (ed.), Release 21 page (timetable agreed at the June 2026 TSG#112 plenaries; first normative 6G release; Stage-3 freeze December 2028; ASN.1 freeze March 2029). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15ETSI (ed.), Industry Specification Group on Integrated Sensing and Communications, technology page (pre-standards coordination; reports ETSI GR ISC 003 announced 26 February 2026 and ETSI GR ISC 004 announced 2 March 2026). European Telecommunications Standards Institute, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13O-RAN Alliance (ed.), About page (founded February 2018 by AT&T, China Mobile, Deutsche Telekom, NTT DOCOMO and Orange; German entity since August 2018; no member count or AI statement on the page). O-RAN Alliance, Alfter. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11European Commission (ed.), Digital Networks Act policy page (proposal adopted 21 January 2026; single passport; EU satellite spectrum authorisation; copper phase-out plans; preparedness plan). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25UNVERIFIED, not opened: ITU (ed.), World Radiocommunication Conference 2023 final acts and Resolution 256 on agenda item 1.7 (IMT in 4400 to 4800 MHz, 7125 to 8400 MHz and 14.8 to 15.35 GHz), taken from conference slides and national briefs in search results. International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission and NIS Cooperation Group (eds.), Cybersecurity of 5G networks, EU toolbox of risk mitigating measures, January 2020, cited from memory; the policy page returned not-found. Brussels. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2ITU-R (ed.), IMT-2030 process page of Working Party 5D (timeline; candidate proposal window February 2027 to February 2029; draft reports 5/116 and 5/119 completed in 2026 and due for SG 5 approval in December 2026). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16Sthankiya, K., Saeed, N., McSorley, G., Jaber, M. and Clegg, R.G., A Survey on AI-driven Energy Optimisation in Terrestrial Next Generation Radio Access Networks, IEEE Access 12, 157540 to 157555, 2024 (arXiv:2411.02164, submitted 4 November 2024; abstract page opened). IEEE, Piscataway. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17Saad, W., Bennis, M. and Chen, M., A Vision of 6G Wireless Systems: Applications, Trends, Technologies, and Open Research Problems, IEEE Network, 2019 (arXiv:1902.10265, submitted 26 February 2019; abstract page opened). IEEE, Piscataway. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18Polese, M., Bonati, L., D’Oro, S., Basagni, S. and Melodia, T., Understanding O-RAN: Architecture, Interfaces, Algorithms, Security, and Research Challenges, arXiv:2202.01032, submitted 2 February 2022 (abstract page opened). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19Liu, F., Cui, Y., Masouros, C., Xu, J., Han, T.X., Eldar, Y.C. and Buzzi, S., Integrated Sensing and Communications: Towards Dual-functional Wireless Networks for 6G and Beyond, arXiv:2108.07165, submitted 16 August 2021 (abstract page opened). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20Liu, A. et al., A Survey on Fundamental Limits of Integrated Sensing and Communication, arXiv:2104.09954, submitted 16 April 2021 (abstract page opened). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21Zhang, D. et al., Integrated Sensing and Communications Over the Years: An Evolution Perspective, arXiv:2504.06830, submitted 9 April 2025, version 4 of 19 January 2026 (abstract page opened). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Rappaport, T.S. et al., Wireless Communications and Applications Above 100 GHz: Opportunities and Challenges for 6G and Beyond, IEEE Access 7, 78729 to 78757, 2019, cited from memory. IEEE, Piscataway. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
143GPP (ed.), Non-terrestrial networks overview (first normative requirements in Release 17; Release 19 core completed September 2025 and performance March 2026). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
37UNVERIFIED, not opened: US National Telecommunications and Information Administration (ed.), National Spectrum Strategy, November 2023, cited from memory; the page fetched did not carry it. NTIA, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
39UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMT-2030 (6G) Promotion Group (ed.), white papers on 6G vision and candidate technologies, 2021 to 2023, cited from memory. China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, Beijing. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6Ericsson (ed.), Ericsson Mobility Report, June 2026, mobile subscriptions outlook (company report and forecast; 5G subscriptions close to 3.3 billion after Q2 2026; forecast 6.4 billion for 2031; over 90 providers with 5G standalone of about 390 with 5G; regional 5G penetration). Ericsson, Stockholm. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7Ericsson (ed.), Ericsson Mobility Report, June 2026, mobile traffic forecast (company forecast; 146 EB per month excluding FWA at the end of 2025; 328 EB per month in 2031; 22 GB per active smartphone per month in 2025). Ericsson, Stockholm. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23UNVERIFIED, not opened: Omdia (ed.), RAN market estimate of about USD 35 billion for 2025, taken from a trade summary of an analyst release. Omdia, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24UNVERIFIED, not opened: Omdia (ed.), projection that the AI-RAN market could exceed USD 200 billion by 2030, taken from coverage of the NVIDIA and Nokia announcement; analyst projection, weak evidence. Omdia, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10NVIDIA and Nokia (eds.), NVIDIA to invest USD 1 billion in Nokia to accelerate AI-RAN innovation (joint company press release of 28 October 2025; USD 6.01 per share; ARC-Pro platform; T-Mobile field evaluations from 2026; company announcement, weak evidence). NVIDIA, Santa Clara, and Nokia, Espoo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31UNVERIFIED, not opened: ABI Research (ed.), Are GPUs worth considering for 5G RAN? (analyst commentary on GPU-based RAN efficiency and vendor trial claims), taken from a search-result summary. ABI Research, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Next G Alliance (ed.), Roadmap to 6G, 2022, cited from memory. ATIS, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 6: Readings from the other desks. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: 6G, AI-RAN and Next-Generation Connectivity (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

Name	Purpose	Duration	Party
`wordpress_*`cookie	Strictly necessaryThis site	Until you sign out	First party
`wordpress_logged_in_*`cookie	Strictly necessaryThis site	Until you sign out, or 14 days	First party
`wordpress_sec_*`cookie	Strictly necessaryThis site	Until you sign out, or 14 days	First party
`wordpress_test_cookie`cookie	Strictly necessaryThis site	Session	First party
`wp-settings-*`cookie	Strictly necessaryThis site	1 year	First party
`wp-postpass_*`cookie	Strictly necessaryThis site	10 days	First party
`comment_author_*`cookie	Strictly necessaryThis site	About 347 days	First party
`wpEmojiSettingsSupports`browser storage	Strictly necessaryThis site	Session	First party
`nexus_consent`cookie	Strictly necessaryPrivacy choices	180 days	First party
`nexus_consent_id`cookie	Strictly necessaryPrivacy choices	180 days	First party
`nexus_consent_reset`cookie	Strictly necessaryPrivacy choices	Session	First party
`wp_consent_*`cookie	Strictly necessaryPrivacy choices	180 days	First party
`nexus_consent`browser storage	Strictly necessaryPrivacy choices	180 days	First party
`nx_theme`browser storage	Preferences and functionalDisplay preferences	Until you change it	First party
`nexus.theme.default`browser storage	Preferences and functionalDisplay preferences	Until you change it	First party
`bx-color-mode`browser storage	Preferences and functionalDisplay preferences	Until you change it	First party
`bx-color-mode-against`browser storage	Preferences and functionalDisplay preferences	Until you change it	First party
`nexus.embed.theme`browser storage	Preferences and functionalDisplay preferences	Until you change it	First party
`buddyx_dark_mode`browser storage	Preferences and functionalDisplay preferences	Until you change it	First party
`buddyx_color_mode_against`browser storage	Preferences and functionalDisplay preferences	Until you change it	First party
`nexus.a11y`browser storage	Preferences and functionalDisplay preferences	Until you change it	First party
`nexus.dock`browser storage	Preferences and functionalDisplay preferences	Until you change it	First party
`bp-activity`browser storage	Strictly necessaryCommunity directories (BuddyPress)	As the provider sets it	First party
`bp-groups`browser storage	Strictly necessaryCommunity directories (BuddyPress)	As the provider sets it	First party
`bp-members`browser storage	Strictly necessaryCommunity directories (BuddyPress)	As the provider sets it	First party
`bp-blogs`browser storage	Strictly necessaryCommunity directories (BuddyPress)	As the provider sets it	First party
`bp-messages`browser storage	Strictly necessaryCommunity directories (BuddyPress)	As the provider sets it	First party