Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

9 min read0 figures5 tables24 notesNR-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Connectivity is radio, compute and electricity
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Compute-heavy radio networks built ahead of Release 21
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Radio and compute platforms
    2. 8.2 Energy and sustainability
    3. 8.3 Chips, spectrum and materials
    4. 8.4 Economy, investment and workforce
    5. 8.5 Security, spectrum and governance watch
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Radio and compute platforms

Mobile networks run on radio sites and baseband compute. Evidence is strongest for standards and subscription counts, and weakest where claims rest on company announcements.

200Gbit/s

peak data rate example, research target1

2028December

Release 21 Stage-3 freeze3

1USD billion

stated NVIDIA investment in Nokia, company announcement10

Table 8.1State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Terrestrial radio5G-Advanced under Release 20; first normative 6G work in Release 2134Reported
AI-RAN computeAI-RAN products announced; T-Mobile field evaluations from 2026, company announcement10Reported
Open interfacesO-RAN Alliance founded in 2018; architecture described in a tutorial survey1318Reported
Non-terrestrial linksfirst normative requirements in Release 17; Release 19 core completed September 202514Reported

Couplings

  • AIC ↔ INF compute and radio
  • INF → DAT sensing and positioning
  • TRD → INF suppliers

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • AI-RAN performance on a common basis
  • compute volumes in radio sites

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • XT-06 Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute
  • XT-08 Cloud, Edge and Distributed Computing
  • XT-18 Space and Orbital Infrastructure
  • XT-10 Cybersecurity and Advanced Cryptography

8.2Energy and sustainability

Networks run on electricity at every site. The energy footprint of AI-RAN is not published, and the energy cost of AI itself is often overlooked.

146EB per month

mobile data traffic excluding FWA, end of 20257

328EB per month

forecast for 2031 excluding FWA7

22GB per month

average per active smartphone, 20257

Table 8.2State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Traffic growthtraffic grows about 2.2 times to 2031 excluding FWA7Reported
Energy cost of AIoften overlooked; real-world power data hard to obtain16Reported
RAN energy shareabout 73% of operator energy in one summary; 87% in another figure22Reported
Design aimITU names energy efficiency and sustainability as aims for IMT-20301Reported

Couplings

  • ENE ↔ INF site power
  • AIC → ENE compute load
  • INF → CLI emissions

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • energy per bit of AI-RAN platforms
  • primary energy-share figure

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • XT-06 Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute
  • XT-08 Cloud, Edge and Distributed Computing
  • XT-18 Space and Orbital Infrastructure
  • XT-10 Cybersecurity and Advanced Cryptography

8.3Chips, spectrum and materials

Radio equipment depends on spectrum, chips and materials. Spectrum decisions are dated; chip and mineral dependence is not bound.

1.5 to 3times

spectrum efficiency examples against IMT-20201

>100GHz

range of the ITU feasibility report27

7125 to 8400MHz

candidate range under WRC-27 item 1.725

Table 8.3State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Candidate spectrumWRC-27 item 1.7 studies 4400 to 4800 MHz, 7125 to 8400 MHz and 14.8 to 15.35 GHz, or parts of them25Reported
Bands above 100 GHzITU technical feasibility report completed in 20242741Reported
Compute chipsAI-RAN uses GPU-based platforms; efficiency claims are company and analyst statements1031Reported
Minerals and RF chipsdependence not bound34Expert input

Couplings

  • MIN → INF materials
  • TRD → INF export rules
  • GOV → INF spectrum

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • WRC-27 outcomes
  • chip and mineral dependence

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • XT-06 Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute
  • XT-08 Cloud, Edge and Distributed Computing
  • XT-18 Space and Orbital Infrastructure
  • XT-10 Cybersecurity and Advanced Cryptography

8.4Economy, investment and workforce

The RAN market is stable and concentrated. Public research funding is modest, and operator investment and workforce numbers are the thin parts of the evidence.

1% a year

RAN market growth forecast, 2025 to 20309

900EUR million

EU contribution to the joint undertaking, 2021 to 202712

116EUR million

for 20 research projects, March 202612

Table 8.4State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
RAN marketstable in 2025 after losing about a fifth of value from 2022 to 20249Reported
Public research fundingEUR 900 million from the EU, private members expected to match12Reported
Analyst projectionan AI-RAN market above USD 200 billion by 2030, cited in coverage of the announcement; weak evidence24Reported
Workforceno figure bound32Expert input

Couplings

  • FIN → INF operator capital
  • FIN → AIC compute investment
  • HLT → INF workforce

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • operator 6G investment
  • workforce size and skills gaps

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • XT-06 Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute
  • XT-08 Cloud, Edge and Distributed Computing
  • XT-18 Space and Orbital Infrastructure
  • XT-10 Cybersecurity and Advanced Cryptography

8.5Security, spectrum and governance watch

Standards, spectrum and supplier rules set the pace of 6G. The EU proposal and the ITU process are the nearest dated steps.

21January 2026

date of the Digital Networks Act proposal11

20requirements

minimum technical performance requirements in the ITU draft2

7partners

organisational partners of 3GPP5

Table 8.5State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Standards processITU window February 2027 to February 2029; Release 21 timetable to March 202923Reported
EU frameworksingle passport, EU satellite authorisation and copper phase-out plans proposed11Reported
6G security worksecurity, charging and lawful interception study items in Release 204Reported
Supplier securityEU toolbox of 2020 sets measures on high-risk suppliers; an ENISA threat landscape of 2019 preceded it3542Reported

Couplings

  • GOV → INF timing
  • GOV → TRD supplier rules
  • INF → DAT sensing data

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • text of the draft ITU reports
  • national rules by country

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • XT-06 Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute
  • XT-08 Cloud, Edge and Distributed Computing
  • XT-18 Space and Orbital Infrastructure
  • XT-10 Cybersecurity and Advanced Cryptography

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1ITU-R (ed.), Recommendation ITU-R M.2160-0, Framework and overall objectives of the future development of IMT for 2030 and beyond, November 2023 (PDF opened; capability research targets in section 4). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 33GPP (ed.), Release 21 page (timetable agreed at the June 2026 TSG#112 plenaries; first normative 6G release; Stage-3 freeze December 2028; ASN.1 freeze March 2029). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 10NVIDIA and Nokia (eds.), NVIDIA to invest USD 1 billion in Nokia to accelerate AI-RAN innovation (joint company press release of 28 October 2025; USD 6.01 per share; ARC-Pro platform; T-Mobile field evaluations from 2026; company announcement, weak evidence). NVIDIA, Santa Clara, and Nokia, Espoo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 43GPP (ed.), Release 20 page (5G-Advanced timeline; early 6G studies listed, including TR 22.870 and TR 38.914; work plan of March 2026). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 13O-RAN Alliance (ed.), About page (founded February 2018 by AT&T, China Mobile, Deutsche Telekom, NTT DOCOMO and Orange; German entity since August 2018; no member count or AI statement on the page). O-RAN Alliance, Alfter. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 18Polese, M., Bonati, L., D’Oro, S., Basagni, S. and Melodia, T., Understanding O-RAN: Architecture, Interfaces, Algorithms, Security, and Research Challenges, arXiv:2202.01032, submitted 2 February 2022 (abstract page opened). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 143GPP (ed.), Non-terrestrial networks overview (first normative requirements in Release 17; Release 19 core completed September 2025 and performance March 2026). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 7Ericsson (ed.), Ericsson Mobility Report, June 2026, mobile traffic forecast (company forecast; 146 EB per month excluding FWA at the end of 2025; 328 EB per month in 2031; 22 GB per active smartphone per month in 2025). Ericsson, Stockholm. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 16Sthankiya, K., Saeed, N., McSorley, G., Jaber, M. and Clegg, R.G., A Survey on AI-driven Energy Optimisation in Terrestrial Next Generation Radio Access Networks, IEEE Access 12, 157540 to 157555, 2024 (arXiv:2411.02164, submitted 4 November 2024; abstract page opened). IEEE, Piscataway. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: GSMA Intelligence (ed.), analysis of mobile network energy use (RAN about 73% of operator energy; energy 20% to 40% of operator operating cost), taken from search-result summaries; another figure of 87% circulates and the two are not reconciled. GSMA, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: ITU-R (ed.), Report ITU-R M.2541, technical feasibility of IMT in bands above 100 GHz, 2024, named on the ITU process page. International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: ITU (ed.), World Radiocommunication Conference 2023 final acts and Resolution 256 on agenda item 1.7 (IMT in 4400 to 4800 MHz, 7125 to 8400 MHz and 14.8 to 15.35 GHz), taken from conference slides and national briefs in search results. International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Rappaport, T.S. et al., Wireless Communications and Applications Above 100 GHz: Opportunities and Challenges for 6G and Beyond, IEEE Access 7, 78729 to 78757, 2019, cited from memory. IEEE, Piscataway. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: ABI Research (ed.), Are GPUs worth considering for 5G RAN? (analyst commentary on GPU-based RAN efficiency and vendor trial claims), taken from a search-result summary. ABI Research, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026, which returned an access error when fetched; no figure taken from it. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 9Dell’Oro Group (ed.), RAN market stabilised in 2025 (press release of 17 February 2026; analyst release; stable 2025 revenue; Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE and Samsung in unchanged order; concentration at a ten-year high; 1% a year growth forecast 2025 to 2030; about a fifth of value lost 2022 to 2024). Dell’Oro Group, Redwood City. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 12European Commission (ed.), Smart Networks and Services Joint Undertaking policy page (at least EUR 1.8 billion for 2021 to 2027; EUR 900 million public contribution; 20 6G research projects with EUR 116 million announced March 2026). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: Omdia (ed.), projection that the AI-RAN market could exceed USD 200 billion by 2030, taken from coverage of the NVIDIA and Nokia announcement; analyst projection, weak evidence. Omdia, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: GSMA (ed.), The Mobile Economy 2026, which returned a not-found error when fetched; no figure taken from it. GSMA, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 11European Commission (ed.), Digital Networks Act policy page (proposal adopted 21 January 2026; single passport; EU satellite spectrum authorisation; copper phase-out plans; preparedness plan). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  21. 2ITU-R (ed.), IMT-2030 process page of Working Party 5D (timeline; candidate proposal window February 2027 to February 2029; draft reports 5/116 and 5/119 completed in 2026 and due for SG 5 approval in December 2026). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  22. 53GPP (ed.), Introducing 3GPP (seven organisational partners: ARIB, ATIS, CCSA, ETSI, TSDSI, TTA, TTC). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  23. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission and NIS Cooperation Group (eds.), Cybersecurity of 5G networks, EU toolbox of risk mitigating measures, January 2020, cited from memory; the policy page returned not-found. Brussels. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  24. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: ENISA (ed.), Threat Landscape for 5G Networks, 2019, cited from memory. European Union Agency for Cybersecurity, Athens. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: 6G, AI-RAN and Next-Generation Connectivity (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

ReportsContribute

Send evidence or a correction on 6G, AI-RAN and Next-Generation Connectivity.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) Systems Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.

GCRI Systems Evidence deskExponential Technology

Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.

CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.

The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

Science · evidence · measurement

Not for profit

Our articles, maps and twins are free to read and free to republish. Readers and partners keep it that way.

Partner with us

Who funds us

GCRI is a not-for-profit institution. To ask who funds a piece of work, use the funding questions form.

Independence

Editors and the expert reviewers named on each article decide what we publish. Funders and partners do not review or approve articles before publication.

Corrections policy

Licence

Articles: CC BY 4.0. Figures, maps, twins and data: CC BY 4.0. Other uses: ask through the permissions form.

Privacy choices