Methodology
How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Connectivity is radio, compute and electricity
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Compute-heavy radio networks built ahead of Release 21
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
A.1Methods
The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.
| No. | Derivation | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | Highest IMT-2030 peak rate example against the IMT-2020 reference | 200 ÷ 20 | 10 times |
| (2) | Growth of 5G subscriptions from Q2 2026 to the 2031 forecast | 6.4 ÷ 3.3 | about 1.9 times |
| (3) | Months from the Release 21 Stage-1 freeze (March 2027) to later milestones | March 2028, June 2028, December 2028 and March 2029 minus March 2027 | 12, 15, 21 and 24 months |
| (4) | Share of 5G providers with standalone launched, lower bound | 90 ÷ 390 | at least 23% |
| Strength | Definition |
|---|---|
| STRONG | a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season, in more than one region |
| MODERATE | an effect is documented but buffered or slower |
| WEAK | an effect is plausible but not documented at global scale |
| Label | Rule |
|---|---|
| Reported | value as issued by its source, with year |
| Inferred | reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement |
| Estimated | Nexus analytical value with stated method |
| Scenario | conditional on stated assumptions |
| Expert input | structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence |
A.2Model card, 6G System Model v0
- Model ID
- MDL-XT09-6G · v0.1
- Purpose
- represent next-generation connectivity as infrastructure coupled to energy, compute chips, spectrum, materials, finance, workforce and security
- Family
- graph-based system of systems
- Inputs
- the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
- Method
- expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events
- Validation
- none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027
- Uncertainty
- qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
- Domain of validity
- global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use
- Reproducibility
- strength table and sources published in this edition
20couplings
typed in v0
0strong
documented within one season
0moderate
documented, buffered
20weak
plausible, undocumented
A.3The baseline evidence cut
Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.
- Cut ID
- DC-XTECH-6G-GLOBAL-2026-B0
- Type
- baseline documentary cut
- Resolution policy
- pinned · as of 30 September 2026
- Sources pinned
- 42 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references
- Model runs
- none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
- Digest
- computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
- Supersedes
- nothing, first cut of the series
- Superseded by
- the 2027 6G annual cut
Lineage
- 01
source edition
- 02
pinned citation
- 03
finding
- 04
page
- 05
publication record
| Element | Baseline 2026 | 2027 global annual |
|---|---|---|
| Sources | cited global publications, pinned by edition | national, regional and sector cuts through one graph |
| Analysis | stated methods and editorial estimates | typed analysis specifications |
| Models | 6G System Model v0 specification | model runs with receipts |
| Findings | twelve baseline findings | findings re-bound to federation evidence |
| Review | five passes scheduled | five passes on the exact digest |
A.4Evidence age and coverage
A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.
| Indicator | Observed | Released | Cadence | Next release |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMT-2030 framework | 2023 | Nov 2023 | one-off | IMT-2030 reports |
| ITU requirements and evaluation reports | 2026 | Feb and Jun 2026 | periodic | SG 5 in Dec 2026 |
| 3GPP Release 21 timetable | 2026 | Jun 2026 | per plenary | package approval Mar 2027 |
| 5G subscriptions | 2026 | Jun 2026 | half-yearly | next report |
| RAN market | 2025 | Feb 2026 | quarterly | next release |
| AI-RAN announcement | 2025 | Oct 2025 | one-off | trial results |
| EU proposal and funding | 2026 | Jan and Mar 2026 | per release | legislative steps |
| Energy survey | 2024 | Nov 2024 | one-off | new measurements |
| System | Coverage | Thinnest dimension |
|---|---|---|
| Standards | GOOD | text of the draft ITU reports |
| Deployment | PARTIAL | operator 6G plans |
| Market | PARTIAL | supplier shares |
| Compute | THIN | independent AI-RAN data |
| Energy | THIN | energy per bit |
| Supply | THIN | chips and minerals |
| Skills | THIN | workforce numbers |
| Sensing and satellite links | THIN | deployment data |
| Field | Source that would fill it | Blocker |
|---|---|---|
| Energy per bit and total energy of AI-RAN platforms on a common basis | vendors, operators, peer-reviewed measurements | company announcements only; the survey notes real-world data is hard to obtain1016 |
| RAN share of operator energy from the primary GSMA material | GSMA Intelligence reports22 | search summaries only; two figures, 73% and 87%, circulate |
| WRC-23 outcomes and WRC-27 candidate bands from final texts | ITU Radio Regulations and final acts25 | conference material only; item 1.7 bands are still under study |
| Release 21 content beyond the timetable | 3GPP TR 21.921 and the 6G study reports32829 | the release description is published at the end of the release; reports not opened |
| Text of the 20 IMT-2030 minimum technical performance requirements | ITU draft report 5/116226 | draft pending SG 5 approval; the page names it and the text was not opened |
| Operator 6G deployment plans and capital expenditure | operators and GSMA32 | the GSMA page was not retrieved |
| RAN market shares by supplier | Dell’Oro and Omdia full reports923 | the release gives order and direction, not shares; Omdia figures come from a summary |
| AI-RAN market size from the analyst report | Omdia report24 | cited in coverage of the announcement only |
| GPU-based RAN performance against conventional RAN on a common basis | independent measurement31 | vendor trial claims; analyst commentary says software maturity differs |
| RF semiconductor and critical mineral dependence of radio equipment | IEA and trade statistics34 | the page returned an access error; no figure used |
| Electricity demand of data centres linked to AI load | IEA Energy and AI33 | the page returned an access error; no figure used |
| Direct-to-device satellite deployment and spectrum use | FCC and operators3614 | framework cited from memory; no deployment data retrieved |
| Funding for national 6G programmes outside the EU | national programmes and industry roadmaps383940 | not retrieved; not opened |
| Membership and working groups of the AI-RAN Alliance | AI-RAN Alliance publications30 | the website returned only its title; nothing was bound |
| Workforce size and skills for radio and network engineering | national statistics, industry surveys | not retrieved; capability rung stays LISTED |
A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources
Adopted by the ITU Radiocommunication Assembly in November 2023. One-off. Role: binds INF-001 and the standards tiles. Coverage: terrestrial component of IMT-2030.
EVD-XT09-001
IMT-2030 framework, Recommendation ITU-R M.21601
Published by 3GPP; timetable agreed at the June 2026 plenaries. Continuous. Role: binds INF-002 and the milestone chart. Coverage: global specifications.
EVD-XT09-002
3GPP Release 21 page3
| Dimension | EVD-XT09-001 | EVD-XT09-002 |
|---|---|---|
| Completeness | research targets with examples and ranges | five milestone dates |
| Timeliness | adopted in November 2023 | agreed in June 2026 |
| Revision | first version; no revision seen | dates can move at plenaries |
| Method transparency | targets stated with scenario caveats | work plan stated |
| External validation | adopted by member states | agreed by member companies |
Evidence cards to follow in 2027
A.6Publication acceptance record
Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.
| Group | Area | Items | Pass | N/A | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | Identity and scope | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| D2 | Source and data | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 |
| D3 | Analysis and models | 12 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| D4 | Findings and claims | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
| D5 | Figures, tables, maps | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| D6 | Editorial and citations | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 |
| D7 | Review and approval | 13 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| D8 | Artefact and design | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 |
| D9 | Registry and release | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
Publication gate
- Conditions met
- 14 of 23 at evidence close
- Blocking problems
- none recorded
- Open conditions
- reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer
Not applicable at baseline
- Model runs
- first runs in Q1 2027
- Maps
- plates in Q2 2027
- Waivers
- none
A.7Status words
| Status | What it means |
|---|---|
| Observed | Measured directly and published by the source. |
| Reported | Published statistics of an official or institutional source. |
| Declared | Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured. |
| Estimated | A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A. |
| Modelled | Produced by a stated model from cited inputs. |
| Inferred | Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured. |
| Forecast | A projection by the cited source. |
| Simulated | A simulation result under stated assumptions. |
| Scenario | A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction. |
| Expert input | Expert judgement, recorded with its basis. |
| Candidate | Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence. |
| Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject. | |
A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected
Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.
| Step | What happens | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 01 Evidence arrives from the pillars | Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s. | |
| 02 The cut is sealed | On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on. | |
| 03 The edition is assembled | The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide. | |
| 04 The keys turn | At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward. | |
| 05 The gate opens | A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit. | |
| 06 Signed and deposited | The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI. | |
| 07 Published on its desk’s site | Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part. | |
| 08 Corrections go to Standards | Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut. |
A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).
Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.
A.9Glossary and abbreviations
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Baseline Edition | the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series |
| WEFH+B | water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core |
| Coupling | a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another |
| Protection gap | the share of losses not covered by insurance |
| Capability ladder | LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED |
| EQL | evidence-quality level, 1–5 |
| Evidence cut | a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions |
| NNC · NLC · NWG | National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups |
| Abbreviation | Expansion |
|---|---|
| 3GPP | Third Generation Partnership Project |
| AI-RAN | radio access network that combines AI and radio compute |
| DNA | Digital Networks Act |
| FWA | fixed wireless access |
| IMT | International Mobile Telecommunications |
| ISAC | integrated sensing and communication |
| ITU-R | ITU Radiocommunication Sector |
| NTN | non-terrestrial network |
| O-RAN | open radio access network |
| RAN | radio access network |
| SA | standalone 5G |
| WRC | World Radiocommunication Conference |
A.10Technical annex
| Item | Annex | Contents | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| A.1 | Indicator definitions | the global indicator set, with units and sources | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.2 | Coupling strengths | the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.3 | Scenario specification | SCN-XT09-CMP-01 assumptions and signposts | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.4 | Capability placements | rung evidence for fifteen functions | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.5 | Model diagnostics | first runs and validation | 2027 |
| A.6 | Sensitivity analyses | influence of coupling strengths | 2027 |
| A.7 | Cluster notes | cards for the major radio and compute supply clusters | 2027 |
| A.8 | Review statements | pass-by-pass review record | AT RELEASE |
A.1 · indicator definition: peak data rate
- Construct
- maximum achievable data rate per device under ideal conditions
- Unit
- Gbit/s
- Method
- research-target example set by ITU-R for specific usage scenarios
- Source
- Recommendation ITU-R M.2160-0 (2023)1
- Uncertainty
- examples of 50, 100 and 200 Gbit/s; other values may be considered
- Known limits
- values depend on frequency range, bandwidth and deployment scenario and may not be reached together
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 10NVIDIA and Nokia (eds.), NVIDIA to invest USD 1 billion in Nokia to accelerate AI-RAN innovation (joint company press release of 28 October 2025; USD 6.01 per share; ARC-Pro platform; T-Mobile field evaluations from 2026; company announcement, weak evidence). NVIDIA, Santa Clara, and Nokia, Espoo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 16Sthankiya, K., Saeed, N., McSorley, G., Jaber, M. and Clegg, R.G., A Survey on AI-driven Energy Optimisation in Terrestrial Next Generation Radio Access Networks, IEEE Access 12, 157540 to 157555, 2024 (arXiv:2411.02164, submitted 4 November 2024; abstract page opened). IEEE, Piscataway. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: GSMA Intelligence (ed.), analysis of mobile network energy use (RAN about 73% of operator energy; energy 20% to 40% of operator operating cost), taken from search-result summaries; another figure of 87% circulates and the two are not reconciled. GSMA, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: ITU (ed.), World Radiocommunication Conference 2023 final acts and Resolution 256 on agenda item 1.7 (IMT in 4400 to 4800 MHz, 7125 to 8400 MHz and 14.8 to 15.35 GHz), taken from conference slides and national briefs in search results. International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 33GPP (ed.), Release 21 page (timetable agreed at the June 2026 TSG#112 plenaries; first normative 6G release; Stage-3 freeze December 2028; ASN.1 freeze March 2029). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: 3GPP (ed.), TR 22.870, Study on 6G use cases and service requirements, named on the Release 20 and 21 pages as completed in Release 20. 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: 3GPP (ed.), TR 38.914, 6G scenarios and requirements, named on the Release 20 and 21 pages. 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 2ITU-R (ed.), IMT-2030 process page of Working Party 5D (timeline; candidate proposal window February 2027 to February 2029; draft reports 5/116 and 5/119 completed in 2026 and due for SG 5 approval in December 2026). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: ITU-R (ed.), Report ITU-R M.2516, Future technology trends of terrestrial IMT systems towards 2030 and beyond, December 2022, named in Recommendation M.2160 and the ITU process page. International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: GSMA (ed.), The Mobile Economy 2026, which returned a not-found error when fetched; no figure taken from it. GSMA, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 9Dell’Oro Group (ed.), RAN market stabilised in 2025 (press release of 17 February 2026; analyst release; stable 2025 revenue; Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE and Samsung in unchanged order; concentration at a ten-year high; 1% a year growth forecast 2025 to 2030; about a fifth of value lost 2022 to 2024). Dell’Oro Group, Redwood City. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 23UNVERIFIED, not opened: Omdia (ed.), RAN market estimate of about USD 35 billion for 2025, taken from a trade summary of an analyst release. Omdia, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: Omdia (ed.), projection that the AI-RAN market could exceed USD 200 billion by 2030, taken from coverage of the NVIDIA and Nokia announcement; analyst projection, weak evidence. Omdia, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: ABI Research (ed.), Are GPUs worth considering for 5G RAN? (analyst commentary on GPU-based RAN efficiency and vendor trial claims), taken from a search-result summary. ABI Research, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026, which returned an access error when fetched; no figure taken from it. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Energy and AI, 2025, which returned an access error when fetched; no figure taken from it. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Federal Communications Commission (ed.), framework for supplemental coverage from space, 2024, cited from memory; the page returned an access error. FCC, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 143GPP (ed.), Non-terrestrial networks overview (first normative requirements in Release 17; Release 19 core completed September 2025 and performance March 2026). 3rd Generation Partnership Project, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Next G Alliance (ed.), Roadmap to 6G, 2022, cited from memory. ATIS, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMT-2030 (6G) Promotion Group (ed.), white papers on 6G vision and candidate technologies, 2021 to 2023, cited from memory. China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, Beijing. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hexa-X project consortium (eds.), European 6G flagship project deliverables, 2021 to 2023, cited from memory; the project site could not be reached. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: AI-RAN Alliance (ed.), organisation website, which returned only its title when fetched; no figure taken from it. AI-RAN Alliance. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 1ITU-R (ed.), Recommendation ITU-R M.2160-0, Framework and overall objectives of the future development of IMT for 2030 and beyond, November 2023 (PDF opened; capability research targets in section 4). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back