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Large stablecoin base against uneven rules and theft controls

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

2 min read0 figures0 tables2 notesNR-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Ledgers are settlement infrastructure and a regulatory subject
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Large stablecoin base against uneven rules and theft controls
    1. 5.1 Assumptions
    2. 5.2 The cascade, step by step
    3. 5.3 The scenario as a table of steps
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-XT11-STB-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline
the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers
stablecoin supply keeps growing while national rules take effect at different dates and large thefts continue
Analogues
the 2025 Bybit theft; the BIS tests for money619
Interventions
none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state
narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

  1. 1

    FIN → INF

    stablecoin supply grows and settlement moves onto public ledgers

    2026

  2. 2

    DAT → FIN

    a large theft or issuer failure shakes confidence in custody

    2025

  3. 3

    FIN → FIN

    redemptions press on the reserve assets of an issuer

    2026

  4. 4

    GOV → FIN

    national rules take effect at different dates

    2026

  5. 5

    TRD → DAT

    illicit flows shift to the least regulated venues

    2025

  6. 6

    GOV → INF

    central banks accelerate their own settlement projects

    2026

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-XT11-STB-01 would travel through Blockchain and Distributed Ledgers’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

StepWhat happensSource
01 Finance to infrastructureStablecoin supply grows and settlement moves onto public ledgers. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition XT-11, scenario SCN-XT11-STB-01, step 1
02 DAT to financeA large theft or issuer failure shakes confidence in custody. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition XT-11, scenario SCN-XT11-STB-01, step 2
03 Finance to financeRedemptions press on the reserve assets of an issuer. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition XT-11, scenario SCN-XT11-STB-01, step 3
04 Governance to financeNational rules take effect at different dates. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition XT-11, scenario SCN-XT11-STB-01, step 4
05 Trade to datIllicit flows shift to the least regulated venues. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition XT-11, scenario SCN-XT11-STB-01, step 5
06 Governance to infrastructureCentral banks accelerate their own settlement projects. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition XT-11, scenario SCN-XT11-STB-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Blockchain and Distributed Ledgers 2026, scenario SCN-XT11-STB-01 (2026); Blockchain and Distributed Ledgers 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 6BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2025, chapter III, The next-generation monetary and financial system (stablecoins fall short on the tests of singleness, elasticity and integrity; over 99% of stablecoins are US dollar-denominated; first 100,000 characters of the page read). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 19Federal Bureau of Investigation (ed.), Public service announcement on the Bybit theft (about USD 1.5 billion in virtual assets stolen on or about 21 February 2025; attributed to North Korea). FBI Internet Crime Complaint Center, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 5: Large stablecoin base against uneven rules and theft controls. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Blockchain and Distributed Ledgers (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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