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Systems and sectors at baseline

5 min read0 figures2 tables12 notesNR-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Ledgers are settlement infrastructure and a regulatory subject
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Large stablecoin base against uneven rules and theft controls
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

FIN · Stablecoins

Stablecoin market capitalisation

317USD billion

more than 50% above early 2025.

Reported2026Federal Reserve17

FIN · Law

GENIUS Act reserve minimum

1 to 1reserve backing

identifiable reserves; no interest or yield from issuers.

Reported2025Public Law 119-2713

INF · Energy

Ethereum annual electricity use after proof of stake

2,601MWh per year

a project-published estimate, weak evidence.

Reported2026Ethereum Foundation3

FIN · Central banks

Countries and currency unions exploring a digital currency

146jurisdictions

3 launched; 41 pilot projects.

Reported2026Atlantic Council8

DAT · Security

Bybit theft attributed to North Korea

1.5USD billion

on or about 21 February 2025.

Reported2025FBI19

DAT · Cryptography

Bitcoin with a public key revealed on-chain

>34percent

a claim in a draft proposal text; other estimates differ.

Reported2026BIP-36124

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through distributed ledger, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries distributed ledger risk into each domain.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATCooling-water use of mining is estimated in a press-covered study not read at source.ENE → WATExpert input EQL 1
ENENetwork electricity use differs by design; the proof-of-stake figure is a project estimate and the proof-of-work figure is not bound.ENE ↔ INFReported EQL 2
FOONo documented coupling at baseline; supply-chain tracing claims are not evidenced here.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
HLTNo documented coupling at baseline; health-record ledger claims are not evidenced here.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
BIONo documented coupling at baseline.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
CLIElectricity demand matters for emissions; no figure bound.INF → CLIExpert input EQL 1
INFThe core system: a stable protocol base, repeated upgrades, and settlement projects of central banks.the core systemReported EQL 4
FINStablecoins at USD 317 billion; statutes in the US and EU; BIS doubts about their role as money.FIN → INFReported EQL 4
DATTheft and sanctions evasion are documented; signature exposure to quantum attack is a drafted-proposal topic.INF → DATReported EQL 4
AICNo documented coupling to other compute platforms at baseline.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
MINMining hardware depends on semiconductor supply; no figure bound.MIN → INFExpert input EQL 1
TRDSanctions, cross-border payments and remittance costs shape use; the cost series was not read.INF ↔ TRDInferred EQL 2

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on distributed ledger, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemledgers couple to finance, security and electricitystablecoin stressTHIN
GS-01Watermining water use not read at sourcefacility sitingTHIN
GS-02Energyproof-of-stake estimate only3load from mining sitesTHIN
GS-03Foodno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-04Healthno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-05FinanceUSD 317 billion of stablecoins17reserve and redemption riskGOOD
GS-06Developmentremittance cost series not read27widening gapsTHIN
GS-07Climatefootprint of proof-of-work not boundelectricity demandTHIN
GS-08Disasterno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-09Infrastructuresettlement projects of central banks10single-platform dependenceTHIN
GS-10Citiesno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-11Biodiversityno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-12Earth observationno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-13Cyber and digitaltheft and signature exposure1924key compromisePARTIAL
GS-14PolicyGENIUS Act, MiCA and FSB review121314rule divergenceGOOD
GS-15Sciencefoundational papers and NIST overview12common measurementPARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 17Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (ed.), Stablecoins in 2025: Developments and Financial Stability Implications, FEDS Notes, 8 April 2026 (market capitalisation USD 317 billion on 6 April 2026; more than 50% above early 2025). Federal Reserve Board, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 13United States Congress, Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act (GENIUS Act), Public Law 119-27, enacted 18 July 2025 (full text read from the Government Publishing Office version). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 3Ethereum Foundation (ed.), Ethereum energy consumption (project page citing Crypto Carbon Ratings Institute estimates: annual electricity use of 2,601 MWh; cut of more than 99.988% after the Merge). A project-published estimate, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 8Atlantic Council (ed.), Central Bank Digital Currency Tracker (page last updated May 2026: 146 countries and currency unions exploring; 3 launched; 41 pilot projects). Atlantic Council, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 19Federal Bureau of Investigation (ed.), Public service announcement on the Bybit theft (about USD 1.5 billion in virtual assets stolen on or about 21 February 2025; attributed to North Korea). FBI Internet Crime Complaint Center, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 24Lopp, J. et al., BIP 361: Post Quantum Migration and Legacy Signature Sunset, Bitcoin improvement proposal, status Draft, assigned 11 February 2026 (states that over 34% of all bitcoin had revealed a public key on-chain on 1 March 2026). Bitcoin improvement proposals repository. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Bank (ed.), Remittance Prices Worldwide (page blocked automated access; cited from memory without figures). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 10BIS Innovation Hub (ed.), Project Agorá (page last updated 27 May 2026: eight central banks and over 40 financial institutions testing tokenised cross-border settlement). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 12FSB (ed.), Thematic review on the FSB Global Regulatory Framework for Crypto-asset Activities (publication page; October 2025; information as of August 2025; significant gaps and inconsistencies; eight recommendations). Financial Stability Board, Basel. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 14ESMA (ed.), Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) page (timeline: entered into force June 2023; full application 30 December 2024; grandfathering under Article 143(3) ends 1 July 2026 at the latest; no count of authorised providers). European Securities and Markets Authority, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 1Nakamoto, S., Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System, white paper, 2008 (PDF read in full for the abstract). Observation year 2008. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 2Yaga, D., Mell, P., Roby, N. and Scarfone, K., Blockchain Technology Overview, NIST IR 8202 (publication page; published 3 October 2018, page updated 7 May 2026). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Blockchain and Distributed Ledgers (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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