Readings from the other desks
The distributed ledger baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Ledgers are settlement infrastructure and a regulatory subject
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Large stablecoin base against uneven rules and theft controls
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 6.1 The other desks’ editions of this subject
- 6.2 Three lenses
- 6.3 Standards, Academy and steward contributions
- 6.4 GCRI reading: the model card
- 6.5 Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
- 6.6 Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 distributed ledger readiness pack
- 6.7 Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
- 6.8 Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject
Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.
| Desk | Edition | State | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| Standards Progress | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit |
6.2Three lenses
One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.
GCRI · KEY T
Technical Truth
The evidence supports reading distributed ledgers as settlement infrastructure and as a regulatory subject. Statutes and supervisory pages are strong evidence. Energy, reserve composition and illicit share are weak, and vendor figures are labelled as such.
GOV-005 · FIN-008 · DAT-010 · SYS-012
GRF · KEY M
Public Meaning
For most people the story arrives as a price headline, a theft or an ad for a token. The baseline asks that public debate separate statutes, project claims and vendor reports, and keep the protection of ordinary holders in view.
GOV-005 · DAT-010 · DAT-011
GRA · KEY F
Capital Meaning
Readiness implications only. Stablecoin supply is large, rules differ by region, and theft losses are lumpy1719. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.
FIN-008 · GOV-005
NEXUS
Synthesis
Distributed-ledger technology is well described by statutes and single events and thinly measured as a system. The 2027 programme should bind reserve composition, publish a comparable footprint and test the stablecoin stress pathway before the next large event.
SYS-012 · L-01 · L-02
6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions
How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for distributed ledger. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.
| Quarter | Edition | Question | Boundary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | State and Agenda | What matters this year, and what is the starting position? | observed baseline stays distinct from planned work |
| Q2 | Evidence and Build | What new evidence and capability exist? | a configured capability is not a validated result |
| Q3 | Stress Test and Readiness | What do scenarios and tests show? | simulated loss or performance is not observed impact |
| Q4 | Annual Synthesis and Renewal | What changed in the year, and what renews? | release follows review, not event publicity deadlines |
| Steward or body | Role | Contribution route |
|---|---|---|
| The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI Canada) | Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T) | science and practice communities · GCRI gateway |
| The Global Risks Forum (GRF) | leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M) | policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway |
| The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) | finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F) | finance and insurance · GRA gateway |
| Nexus Standards | preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods | Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI |
| Risk Academy | learning pathways tied to the agenda questions | Academy gateway · learning by review |
| Nexus Standards and Academy | technology chapter inputs: GCRI evidence, NXS standards, RA capability | technology editorial board |
Standards drafts used in this edition
- Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
- Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
- Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech
Standards calendar to watch
- Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
- Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
- Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition
6.4GCRI reading: the model card
GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology
6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.
Distributed ledgers are a protocol base and a regulatory subject. The first changes slowly through documented upgrades. The second is changing fast in statute. Keeping them apart avoids both hype and dismissal.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01
Two stories, one technology
A statute, a project page and a vendor report carry different weight. This edition labels each, and asks for a common basis before illicit and theft totals are compared.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02
Separate statutes, project claims and vendor reports
Electricity use depends on the consensus design and on how hardware is assumed. A published method is needed before totals are compared across networks.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03
The footprint is a method question
Statutes now set reserve and authorisation rules while reserve composition, redemption behaviour and illicit share remain thinly measured. The next year should close that gap.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04
Rules arrive before evidence
6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 distributed ledger readiness pack
The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.
| Item | Register | State at baseline | First 2027 entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| E1 | Distributed Ledger risk state delta | baseline set by this edition | changes against the baseline |
| E2 | WEFH+B state delta | five global system readings set | indicator updates and freshness |
| E3 | Agenda and Portfolio movement | eight agenda items · 6 proposed objects | admission decisions |
| E4 | Federation delivery register | national chapters in preparation | national chapters |
| E5 | Consortium capability register | national consortia forming | first contributions |
| E6 | Leadership questions and challenges | none yet | first challenge log |
| E7 | Foundry technical state | national environments prepared | first federation cut |
| E8 | Publication candidates | twelve findings carried forward | PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions |
| E9 | Universe readiness | one candidate mission | admission and role spine |
| E10 | Correction register | none | first federation-wide cycle |
Publication dispositions
- Publish
- Hold
- Needs evidence
- Restricted
- Superseded
6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.
- IN FORCE
- PUBLISHED
- DRAFT
- PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY
| Instrument | Body | Scope | Status | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GENIUS Act, Public Law 119-2713 | US Congress | US | IN FORCE 2025 · EFFECTIVE DATE PENDING | payment stablecoins |
| MiCA, Regulation (EU) 2023/11141434 | EU legislators | EU | IN FORCE 2024 | crypto-asset markets |
| MiCA rules for ART and EMT issuers15 | EBA | EU | APPLIED FROM 30 JUNE 2024 | token issuers |
| Transfer of Funds Regulation35 | EU legislators | EU | IN FORCE | travel rule |
| FSB framework for crypto-asset activities11 | FSB | global | PUBLISHED 2023 | regulatory framework |
| Basel crypto-asset standard SCO6016 | Basel Committee | global | PUBLISHED 2022 · UNDER REVIEW | bank exposures |
| FATF standards on virtual assets26 | FATF | global | PUBLISHED | illicit finance controls |
| ISO/TC 307 on blockchain3233 | ISO | global | COMMITTEE ACTIVE | terminology and standards |
| NIST post-quantum standards22 | NIST | US, used globally | PUBLISHED 2024 | signature algorithms |
| NIST IR 82022 | NIST | US | PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY | technology overview |
Changed since 2024
6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
The review behind this edition covers distributed ledger assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.
Review protocol
- Question
- What does the published evidence establish about blockchain and distributed ledgers as infrastructure and its couplings?
- Sources searched
- foundational papers; standard setters and central banks; statutes and supervisory pages; protocol pages and security reports
- Window
- releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
- Selection
- sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
- Next step
- systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027
| Reference | Type | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nakamoto1 | white paper | 2008 | framework | peer-to-peer electronic cash |
| NIST IR 82022 | NIST report | 2018 | framework | neutral overview |
| Haber and Stornetta39 | journal article | 1991 | framework | time-stamping |
| Lamport, Shostak and Pease38 | journal article | 1982 | framework | Byzantine agreement |
| Castro and Liskov37 | conference paper | 1999 | framework | practical Byzantine fault tolerance |
| Buterin36 | white paper | 2014 | framework | smart-contract platform |
| Eyal and Sirer40 | conference paper | 2014 | context | selfish mining |
| Daian et al.41 | conference paper | 2020 | context | transaction ordering and extraction |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Makarov and Schoar42 | journal article | 2020 | context | arbitrage across exchanges |
| de Vries29 | journal article | 2023 | context | water footprint estimate |
| Digiconomist index47 | index page | 2026 | context | competing energy estimate |
| Cambridge index method5 | methodology page | 2026 | supports | method for electricity estimate |
| Electric Capital developer report25 | industry report | 2026 | context | developer activity |
| Glassnode analysis30 | vendor analysis | 2026 | context | exposed supply estimate |
| Citi Institute analysis31 | bank research | 2026 | context | exposed supply estimate |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BIS Annual Economic Report chapter6 | BIS | 2025 | supports | tests for money |
| BIS survey of central banks7 | BIS | 2025 | supports | digital-currency work |
| FSB framework and review1112 | FSB | 2023 to 2025 | supports | rule consistency |
| GENIUS Act13 | US Congress | 2025 | supports | stablecoin statute |
| MiCA pages1415 | ESMA and EBA | 2024 to 2025 | supports | EU regime |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethereum Foundation energy page3 | project body | 2026 | context | weak, project-published |
| Ethereum roadmap page4 | project body | 2025 | context | upgrade dates |
| Bitcoin proposals 360 and 3612324 | draft specifications | 2026 | context | quantum exposure |
| Chainalysis report20 | security vendor | 2025 | context | weak, vendor estimate |
| FBI notice19 | law enforcement | 2025 | supports | attribution of a theft |
| Federal Reserve note17 | central bank | 2026 | supports | stablecoin size |
| Atlantic Council tracker8 | think tank | 2026 | context | digital-currency counts |
Where the evidence agrees
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 17Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (ed.), Stablecoins in 2025: Developments and Financial Stability Implications, FEDS Notes, 8 April 2026 (market capitalisation USD 317 billion on 6 April 2026; more than 50% above early 2025). Federal Reserve Board, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 19Federal Bureau of Investigation (ed.), Public service announcement on the Bybit theft (about USD 1.5 billion in virtual assets stolen on or about 21 February 2025; attributed to North Korea). FBI Internet Crime Complaint Center, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 13United States Congress, Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act (GENIUS Act), Public Law 119-27, enacted 18 July 2025 (full text read from the Government Publishing Office version). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14ESMA (ed.), Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) page (timeline: entered into force June 2023; full application 30 December 2024; grandfathering under Article 143(3) ends 1 July 2026 at the latest; no count of authorised providers). European Securities and Markets Authority, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council, Regulation (EU) 2023/1114 on markets in crypto-assets, Official Journal, 2023 (the text did not load; dates taken from the ESMA page), cited from memory. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 15EBA (ed.), Asset-referenced and e-money tokens (MiCA) page (requirements for issuers of ARTs and EMTs apply from 30 June 2024; EBA statement; joint reports). European Banking Authority, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council, Regulation (EU) 2023/1113 on information accompanying transfers of funds and certain crypto-assets, 2023, cited from memory. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 11FSB (ed.), FSB Global Regulatory Framework for Crypto-asset Activities (publication page; final report of 17 July 2023). Financial Stability Board, Basel. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 16Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Prudential treatment of cryptoasset exposures, standard SCO60 (publication page; published 16 December 2022; the page states implementation by 1 January 2025; later date and review known only from search summaries). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: FATF (ed.), Targeted update on implementation of the FATF Standards on virtual assets and virtual asset service providers, 2025 (page blocked automated access; cited from memory without figures). Financial Action Task Force, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO (ed.), ISO/TC 307 Blockchain and distributed ledger technologies (committee page blocked automated access; cited from memory). International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO (ed.), ISO 22739, Blockchain and distributed ledger technologies, Vocabulary, cited from memory. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 22NIST (ed.), Post-Quantum Cryptography project page (three finalised standards; announcement of 13 August 2024; HQC selected as a backup on 11 March 2025). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 2Yaga, D., Mell, P., Roby, N. and Scarfone, K., Blockchain Technology Overview, NIST IR 8202 (publication page; published 3 October 2018, page updated 7 May 2026). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 12FSB (ed.), Thematic review on the FSB Global Regulatory Framework for Crypto-asset Activities (publication page; October 2025; information as of August 2025; significant gaps and inconsistencies; eight recommendations). Financial Stability Board, Basel. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 1Nakamoto, S., Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System, white paper, 2008 (PDF read in full for the abstract). Observation year 2008. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Haber, S. and Stornetta, W.S., How to time-stamp a digital document, Journal of Cryptology 3, 99 to 111, 1991, cited from memory. Observation year 1991. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Lamport, L., Shostak, R. and Pease, M., The Byzantine generals problem, ACM Transactions on Programming Languages and Systems 4(3), 382 to 401, 1982, cited from memory. Observation year 1982. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Castro, M. and Liskov, B., Practical Byzantine fault tolerance, Proceedings of OSDI, 1999, cited from memory. Observation year 1999. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Buterin, V., A Next-Generation Smart Contract and Decentralized Application Platform, white paper, 2014, cited from memory. Observation year 2014. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Eyal, I. and Sirer, E.G., Majority is not enough: Bitcoin mining is vulnerable, Financial Cryptography, 2014, cited from memory. Observation year 2014. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Daian, P. et al., Flash Boys 2.0: frontrunning in decentralised exchanges, miner extractable value, and consensus instability, IEEE Symposium on Security and Privacy, 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Makarov, I. and Schoar, A., Trading and arbitrage in cryptocurrency markets, Journal of Financial Economics 135(2), 293 to 319, 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: de Vries, A., Bitcoin’s growing water footprint, Cell Reports Sustainability, 2023, known from press coverage only; no figure used. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: Digiconomist (ed.), Bitcoin Energy Consumption Index, cited from memory without figures. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 5Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance (ed.), Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index, landing and methodology pages (hybrid top-down method; landing page values load by script and none was read). University of Cambridge, Cambridge. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 25Electric Capital (ed.), Crypto developer report and dashboard (page read; figures load by script and none was read). Electric Capital, San Francisco. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Glassnode (ed.), analysis of bitcoin supply structurally exposed to quantum risk (about 9.6%), taken from a news summary. Glassnode, Singapore. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Citi Institute (ed.), report of 16 May 2026 on quantum risk to bitcoin (about 25% of supply with exposed public keys), taken from a news summary. Citi, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2025, chapter III, The next-generation monetary and financial system (stablecoins fall short on the tests of singleness, elasticity and integrity; over 99% of stablecoins are US dollar-denominated; first 100,000 characters of the page read). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7Illes, A., Kosse, A. and Wierts, P., Embracing diversity, advancing together: results of the 2024 BIS survey on central bank digital currencies and crypto, BIS Papers 159 (published 22 August 2025; 93 central banks surveyed; 91% exploring). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3Ethereum Foundation (ed.), Ethereum energy consumption (project page citing Crypto Carbon Ratings Institute estimates: annual electricity use of 2,601 MWh; cut of more than 99.988% after the Merge). A project-published estimate, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 4Ethereum Foundation (ed.), Ethereum roadmap (project page: Merge 15 September 2022 with a cut in energy use of about 99.95%; Dencun 13 March 2024; Pectra 7 May 2025; Fusaka 3 December 2025). A project-published page, weak evidence for the energy figure. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 23Beast, H., Heilman, E. and Duke, I.F., BIP 360: Pay-to-Merkle-Root (P2MR), Bitcoin improvement proposal, status Draft, version 0.12.1 (resists long exposure attacks only). Bitcoin improvement proposals repository. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 24Lopp, J. et al., BIP 361: Post Quantum Migration and Legacy Signature Sunset, Bitcoin improvement proposal, status Draft, assigned 11 February 2026 (states that over 34% of all bitcoin had revealed a public key on-chain on 1 March 2026). Bitcoin improvement proposals repository. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 20Chainalysis (ed.), 2026 Crypto Crime Report introduction (illicit addresses received at least USD 154 billion in 2025, up 162%; sanctioned-entity value up 694%; North Korea-linked thefts USD 2 billion; Bybit nearly USD 1.5 billion; illicit share below 1%; stablecoins 84% of illicit volume). A security-vendor report and a lower-bound estimate, weak evidence. Chainalysis, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8Atlantic Council (ed.), Central Bank Digital Currency Tracker (page last updated May 2026: 146 countries and currency unions exploring; 3 launched; 41 pilot projects). Atlantic Council, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back