Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

7 min read1 figure0 tables18 notesNR-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
    1. S.1 Abstract
    2. S.2 Key messages
    3. S.3 Headline finding
    4. S.4 At a glance
    5. S.5 What each steward reads in it
    6. S.6 What this edition is, and is not
  3. 1Ledgers are settlement infrastructure and a regulatory subject
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Large stablecoin base against uneven rules and theft controls
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

S.1Abstract

Blockchain and distributed ledgers matter to the Nexus programme in two ways. They are a settlement infrastructure that now carries tokenised money, and they are a regulatory subject that governments have started to write into law. The technical base is old and stable. A 2008 paper set out peer-to-peer electronic cash secured by proof of work1, and NIST describes a blockchain as a tamper-resistant distributed ledger2. The largest smart-contract network moved to proof of stake on 15 September 2022, and the Ethereum Foundation cites an annual electricity use of 2,601 MWh34. Money is the fastest-moving part. The Federal Reserve gives a stablecoin market capitalisation of USD 317 billion on 6 April 2026, more than 50% above early 202517, while the BIS finds that stablecoins fall short on its three tests for money6. The GENIUS Act became law on 18 July 2025 and requires reserves of at least 1 to 113. MiCA has applied in full in the EU since 30 December 202414. Central banks are active: 85 of 93 surveyed in 2024 were exploring a digital currency7. Security is the weak point. The FBI attributes a theft of about USD 1.5 billion from the Bybit exchange in February 2025 to North Korea19. Public-key signatures are exposed to a future quantum machine, and the two relevant Bitcoin proposals are still drafts2324. This baseline sets out what the evidence supports and where it is thin. It forecasts no price and ranks no asset, country or firm.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the distributed ledger baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  1. A tamper-resistant distributed ledger kept by a network instead of one party.12

    What is a blockchain?Reported

  2. No. One large network reports 2,601 MWh a year after proof of stake; proof-of-work use is not bound here.35

    Is the energy question settled?Reported

  3. In the US, reserves of at least 1 to 1 and no issuer interest; in the EU, authorisation under MiCA.131415

    What do stablecoin laws require?Reported

  4. USD 317 billion on 6 April 2026, per the Federal Reserve.17

    How large are stablecoins?Reported

  5. Most are exploring; three retail currencies are listed as launched.78

    What are central banks doing?Reported

  6. One theft of about USD 1.5 billion in 2025; vendor totals are higher and weaker.1920

    How big are thefts?Reported

  7. Not yet. The FSB found significant gaps and inconsistencies.12

    Do rules agree?Reported

  8. A large stablecoin base against uneven rules and theft controls. SCN-XT11-STB-01

    What will 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-005

The GENIUS Act became law on 18 July 2025 and requires payment stablecoin issuers to hold identifiable reserves of at least 1 to 1.

Figure S.1Time limits in the GENIUS Act
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Latest default effective date, months after enactment18
Earlier trigger, days after final regulations120
Days for a regulator to decide a complete application120

Source: Public Law 119-27, sections 5 and 2013. Months and days are different units; each bar shows its own count.

A federal regime for payment stablecoins now exists in statute. Reserves must be held at least 1 to 1 in listed assets, issuers may not pay interest or yield, and the Act takes effect on the earlier of 18 months after enactment or 120 days after final regulations. Implementing rules, not the statute, will set most operating detail13.

S.4At a glance

317USD billion

stablecoin market capitalisation17

85central banks

exploring, 2024 survey7

18months

GENIUS Act default effective date after enactment13

30 Dec 2024date

MiCA applies in full14

1.5USD billion

Bybit theft19

2027pilot

digital euro pilot, if EU law passes in 202648

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports reading distributed ledgers as settlement infrastructure and as a regulatory subject.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people the story arrives as a price headline, a theft or an ad for a token.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Stablecoin supply is large, rules differ by region, and theft losses are lumpy.

NEXUS

Synthesis

Distributed-ledger technology is well described by statutes and single events and thinly measured as a system.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the 2026 state of blockchain and distributed ledgers as infrastructure and the couplings through which it carries risk into other systems. It synthesises published evidence and ranks no country, company or asset.

What it is not

Not a forecast of any asset price, a technology ranking, an endorsement of any token, exchange or protocol, or an assessment of any programme. Licensing, taxation and sanctions are decisions of competent authorities.

What comes next

National, regional and sector evidence feeds the 2027 distributed ledger edition through the federation. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline: observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1Nakamoto, S., Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System, white paper, 2008 (PDF read in full for the abstract). Observation year 2008. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 2Yaga, D., Mell, P., Roby, N. and Scarfone, K., Blockchain Technology Overview, NIST IR 8202 (publication page; published 3 October 2018, page updated 7 May 2026). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 3Ethereum Foundation (ed.), Ethereum energy consumption (project page citing Crypto Carbon Ratings Institute estimates: annual electricity use of 2,601 MWh; cut of more than 99.988% after the Merge). A project-published estimate, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 4Ethereum Foundation (ed.), Ethereum roadmap (project page: Merge 15 September 2022 with a cut in energy use of about 99.95%; Dencun 13 March 2024; Pectra 7 May 2025; Fusaka 3 December 2025). A project-published page, weak evidence for the energy figure. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 17Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (ed.), Stablecoins in 2025: Developments and Financial Stability Implications, FEDS Notes, 8 April 2026 (market capitalisation USD 317 billion on 6 April 2026; more than 50% above early 2025). Federal Reserve Board, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 6BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2025, chapter III, The next-generation monetary and financial system (stablecoins fall short on the tests of singleness, elasticity and integrity; over 99% of stablecoins are US dollar-denominated; first 100,000 characters of the page read). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 13United States Congress, Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act (GENIUS Act), Public Law 119-27, enacted 18 July 2025 (full text read from the Government Publishing Office version). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 14ESMA (ed.), Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) page (timeline: entered into force June 2023; full application 30 December 2024; grandfathering under Article 143(3) ends 1 July 2026 at the latest; no count of authorised providers). European Securities and Markets Authority, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 7Illes, A., Kosse, A. and Wierts, P., Embracing diversity, advancing together: results of the 2024 BIS survey on central bank digital currencies and crypto, BIS Papers 159 (published 22 August 2025; 93 central banks surveyed; 91% exploring). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 19Federal Bureau of Investigation (ed.), Public service announcement on the Bybit theft (about USD 1.5 billion in virtual assets stolen on or about 21 February 2025; attributed to North Korea). FBI Internet Crime Complaint Center, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 23Beast, H., Heilman, E. and Duke, I.F., BIP 360: Pay-to-Merkle-Root (P2MR), Bitcoin improvement proposal, status Draft, version 0.12.1 (resists long exposure attacks only). Bitcoin improvement proposals repository. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 24Lopp, J. et al., BIP 361: Post Quantum Migration and Legacy Signature Sunset, Bitcoin improvement proposal, status Draft, assigned 11 February 2026 (states that over 34% of all bitcoin had revealed a public key on-chain on 1 March 2026). Bitcoin improvement proposals repository. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 5Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance (ed.), Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index, landing and methodology pages (hybrid top-down method; landing page values load by script and none was read). University of Cambridge, Cambridge. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 15EBA (ed.), Asset-referenced and e-money tokens (MiCA) page (requirements for issuers of ARTs and EMTs apply from 30 June 2024; EBA statement; joint reports). European Banking Authority, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 8Atlantic Council (ed.), Central Bank Digital Currency Tracker (page last updated May 2026: 146 countries and currency unions exploring; 3 launched; 41 pilot projects). Atlantic Council, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 20Chainalysis (ed.), 2026 Crypto Crime Report introduction (illicit addresses received at least USD 154 billion in 2025, up 162%; sanctioned-entity value up 694%; North Korea-linked thefts USD 2 billion; Bybit nearly USD 1.5 billion; illicit share below 1%; stablecoins 84% of illicit volume). A security-vendor report and a lower-bound estimate, weak evidence. Chainalysis, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 12FSB (ed.), Thematic review on the FSB Global Regulatory Framework for Crypto-asset Activities (publication page; October 2025; information as of August 2025; significant gaps and inconsistencies; eight recommendations). Financial Stability Board, Basel. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 48European Central Bank (ed.), Eurosystem moving to next phase of digital euro project (press release of 30 October 2025; a pilot exercise and initial transactions could take place as of mid-2027 if the Regulation is adopted in 2026; readiness for a potential first issuance during 2029; the decision to issue is taken only once the legislation is adopted). ECB, Frankfurt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this summary

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Executive summary: Executive summary. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Blockchain and Distributed Ledgers (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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