Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the distributed ledger baseline. They are grouped by coupling and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

7 min read1 figure0 tables20 notesNR-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Ledgers are settlement infrastructure and a regulatory subject
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Infrastructure
    3. 2.3 CRY
    4. 2.4 Governance
    5. 2.5 Finance
    6. 2.6 Data and digital
    7. 2.7 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Large stablecoin base against uneven rules and theft controls
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-005

The GENIUS Act became law on 18 July 2025 and requires payment stablecoin issuers to hold identifiable reserves of at least 1 to 1.

Figure 2.1Time limits in the GENIUS Act
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Latest default effective date, months after enactment18
Earlier trigger, days after final regulations120
Days for a regulator to decide a complete application120

Source: Public Law 119-27, sections 5 and 2013. Months and days are different units; each bar shows its own count.

Implication

A federal regime for payment stablecoins now exists in statute. Reserves must be held at least 1 to 1 in listed assets, issuers may not pay interest or yield, and the Act takes effect on the earlier of 18 months after enactment or 120 days after final regulations. Implementing rules, not the statute, will set most operating detail13.

What would move it

Final regulations, the effective date, state-regime review and issuer authorisations would each move this finding.

2.2Infrastructure

  1. ReportedEQL 2NRF-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-001

    The Ethereum Foundation cites an annual electricity use of 2,601 MWh for the network after its move to proof of stake on 15 September 2022, a cut of more than 99.988% by an estimate from the Crypto Carbon Ratings Institute. Its roadmap page gives 99.95%.34

2.3CRY

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CRY-002

    A 2008 paper specified peer-to-peer electronic cash secured by chained proof of work, and NIST describes a blockchain as a tamper-resistant distributed ledger in which published transactions cannot normally be changed.12

  2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CRY-003

    Bitcoin improvement proposal 360 (Pay-to-Merkle-Root) and proposal 361 (migration and sunset of legacy signatures) both carry draft status. Proposal 360 resists only long exposure attacks.2324

  3. ReportedEQL 1NRF-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CRY-004

    The text of proposal 361 states that over 34% of all bitcoin had revealed a public key on-chain on 1 March 2026. Secondary summaries of two analyses give about 9.6% and about 25% on different definitions.243031

2.4Governance

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-005

    The GENIUS Act became law on 18 July 2025. It requires identifiable reserves of at least 1 to 1, bars issuers from paying interest or yield, and takes effect on the earlier of 18 months after enactment or 120 days after final regulations.13

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-006

    MiCA applies in full in the EU from 30 December 2024, with rules for asset-referenced and e-money tokens from 30 June 2024 and the grandfathering period under Article 143(3) ending on 1 July 2026 at the latest.1415

  3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-007

    The FSB review published in October 2025, based on information as of August 2025, found significant gaps and inconsistencies in the implementation of its 2023 framework and made eight recommendations.1112

2.5Finance

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-008

    The Federal Reserve gives a stablecoin market capitalisation of USD 317 billion on 6 April 2026, more than 50% above early 2025. The BIS finds that stablecoins fall short on its three tests for money and that over 99% are denominated in US dollars.176

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-009

    In the 2024 BIS survey 85 of 93 central banks were exploring a digital currency. A tracker lists 146 countries and currency unions exploring, 3 launched and 41 pilot projects in May 2026, and in October 2025 the ECB tied a digital euro pilot from mid-2027 to EU legislation in 2026.7848

2.6Data and digital

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DAT-010

    The FBI states that about USD 1.5 billion in virtual assets was stolen from the Bybit exchange on or about 21 February 2025 and attributes the theft to North Korea.19

  2. ReportedEQL 2NRF-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DAT-011

    A security vendor reports that illicit addresses received at least USD 154 billion in 2025, up 162% on 2024 and below 1% of attributed volume, with North Korea-linked thefts of USD 2 billion. This is a vendor estimate and a lower bound.20

2.7Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a large stablecoin base that grows faster than uniform rules, reserve disclosure and theft controls. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 13United States Congress, Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act (GENIUS Act), Public Law 119-27, enacted 18 July 2025 (full text read from the Government Publishing Office version). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 3Ethereum Foundation (ed.), Ethereum energy consumption (project page citing Crypto Carbon Ratings Institute estimates: annual electricity use of 2,601 MWh; cut of more than 99.988% after the Merge). A project-published estimate, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 4Ethereum Foundation (ed.), Ethereum roadmap (project page: Merge 15 September 2022 with a cut in energy use of about 99.95%; Dencun 13 March 2024; Pectra 7 May 2025; Fusaka 3 December 2025). A project-published page, weak evidence for the energy figure. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 1Nakamoto, S., Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System, white paper, 2008 (PDF read in full for the abstract). Observation year 2008. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 2Yaga, D., Mell, P., Roby, N. and Scarfone, K., Blockchain Technology Overview, NIST IR 8202 (publication page; published 3 October 2018, page updated 7 May 2026). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 23Beast, H., Heilman, E. and Duke, I.F., BIP 360: Pay-to-Merkle-Root (P2MR), Bitcoin improvement proposal, status Draft, version 0.12.1 (resists long exposure attacks only). Bitcoin improvement proposals repository. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 24Lopp, J. et al., BIP 361: Post Quantum Migration and Legacy Signature Sunset, Bitcoin improvement proposal, status Draft, assigned 11 February 2026 (states that over 34% of all bitcoin had revealed a public key on-chain on 1 March 2026). Bitcoin improvement proposals repository. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Glassnode (ed.), analysis of bitcoin supply structurally exposed to quantum risk (about 9.6%), taken from a news summary. Glassnode, Singapore. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Citi Institute (ed.), report of 16 May 2026 on quantum risk to bitcoin (about 25% of supply with exposed public keys), taken from a news summary. Citi, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 14ESMA (ed.), Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) page (timeline: entered into force June 2023; full application 30 December 2024; grandfathering under Article 143(3) ends 1 July 2026 at the latest; no count of authorised providers). European Securities and Markets Authority, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 15EBA (ed.), Asset-referenced and e-money tokens (MiCA) page (requirements for issuers of ARTs and EMTs apply from 30 June 2024; EBA statement; joint reports). European Banking Authority, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 11FSB (ed.), FSB Global Regulatory Framework for Crypto-asset Activities (publication page; final report of 17 July 2023). Financial Stability Board, Basel. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 12FSB (ed.), Thematic review on the FSB Global Regulatory Framework for Crypto-asset Activities (publication page; October 2025; information as of August 2025; significant gaps and inconsistencies; eight recommendations). Financial Stability Board, Basel. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 17Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (ed.), Stablecoins in 2025: Developments and Financial Stability Implications, FEDS Notes, 8 April 2026 (market capitalisation USD 317 billion on 6 April 2026; more than 50% above early 2025). Federal Reserve Board, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 6BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2025, chapter III, The next-generation monetary and financial system (stablecoins fall short on the tests of singleness, elasticity and integrity; over 99% of stablecoins are US dollar-denominated; first 100,000 characters of the page read). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 7Illes, A., Kosse, A. and Wierts, P., Embracing diversity, advancing together: results of the 2024 BIS survey on central bank digital currencies and crypto, BIS Papers 159 (published 22 August 2025; 93 central banks surveyed; 91% exploring). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 8Atlantic Council (ed.), Central Bank Digital Currency Tracker (page last updated May 2026: 146 countries and currency unions exploring; 3 launched; 41 pilot projects). Atlantic Council, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 48European Central Bank (ed.), Eurosystem moving to next phase of digital euro project (press release of 30 October 2025; a pilot exercise and initial transactions could take place as of mid-2027 if the Regulation is adopted in 2026; readiness for a potential first issuance during 2029; the decision to issue is taken only once the legislation is adopted). ECB, Frankfurt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 19Federal Bureau of Investigation (ed.), Public service announcement on the Bybit theft (about USD 1.5 billion in virtual assets stolen on or about 21 February 2025; attributed to North Korea). FBI Internet Crime Complaint Center, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 20Chainalysis (ed.), 2026 Crypto Crime Report introduction (illicit addresses received at least USD 154 billion in 2025, up 162%; sanctioned-entity value up 694%; North Korea-linked thefts USD 2 billion; Bybit nearly USD 1.5 billion; illicit share below 1%; stablecoins 84% of illicit volume). A security-vendor report and a lower-bound estimate, weak evidence. Chainalysis, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Blockchain and Distributed Ledgers (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-DLT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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