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Nexus Reports · Frontier technology

Frontier technology series

Technologies such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, biotechnology and advanced robotics are changing faster than the institutions that govern them. The frontier technology series of Nexus Reports, published by The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), examines the science, the opportunities, the uncertainties and the societal implications of these technologies. This page lists editions as each is released. No edition is shown until it is released. The current service level is R0: information and enquiries.

01In brief

The short answer.

The frontier technology series of Nexus Reports examines technologies such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, biotechnology and advanced robotics: their science, opportunities, uncertainties and societal implications for the institutions that govern them, which change more slowly than the technologies. Editions are listed as each is released.

02Geography

Systemic exposure in the Mediterranean.

Where people and networks concentrate, the exposure through which shocks travel between systems, shown for the Mediterranean as an example geography for this subject.

Where people and networks concentrate, the exposure through which shocks travel between systems.Indicator derived from Natural Earth at map scale; a screening view, not an assessment.
GCRI · Nexus Reports · fieldDESIGN FIGURE
03The series

Two series look ahead.

Technology

Exponential Technology

Assessments of frontier technologies and their risks and uses, in the Exponential Technology series.

Foresight

Foresight Outlook

Long-horizon outlooks and horizon scans, in the Foresight Outlook series.

04What an edition covers

Four questions for every technology.

  1. 01

    Science

    What the technology can and cannot do today, on the evidence available, separating demonstrated capability from claims made for it.

  2. 02

    Opportunity

    Where it could reduce risk or strengthen resilience, for whom, and what would have to be true for that benefit to appear.

  3. 03

    Uncertainty

    What is not known, which claims are speculative and how fast the evidence is changing.

  4. 04

    Societal implications

    Effects on work, security, rights, equity and the institutions that must govern the technology, including who bears the risks and who gains the benefits.

05Sources

Where the evidence comes from.

Editions draw on the technology platforms of the network, on experiments and evaluations in Nexus Labs, and on the methods of GCRI technology assessment. Governance perspectives come from The Global Risks Forum (GRF), at GRF foresight outlooks.

Frontier technology editions describe evidence and uncertainty. They never endorse a product or vendor, and a favourable assessment is not certification.

07Key terms

Terms used on this page.

Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.

TermDefinition
Technology convergenceThe combination of advances from several technology fields into new capabilities, such as AI with biotechnology or sensors with networks, whose risks are often greater than those of any part.
Pacing problemThe gap that opens when technology develops faster than the laws and institutions that govern it.
Dual useTechnology or research that can serve both civilian and military purposes.
08Current state

No frontier technology edition is listed yet.

Editions appear here as each is released, with their methods, sources, review disclosures and corrections. Topic discussion is on the frontier technology series topic.

09Questions

Questions and answers.

Do technology reports recommend products?
No. They assess technologies and their implications, never products or vendors.
How is hype kept out?
Claims carry evidence labels, speculative claims are marked as such and uncertainty is stated. Forecasts are labelled as forecasts.
Can technology companies contribute?
Yes, as sources under disclosure. No contributor can shape a finding, and funding is disclosed.
How often are technology editions updated?
Each series sets its cadence in its method. Because evidence on frontier technologies changes quickly, editions state the date of their evidence and are corrected or superseded as it changes.
How do I suggest a technology to assess?
Write to research@therisk.global. The acknowledgement gives a reference and names the next step.
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