Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

13 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Argentina’s risk is hydrological and fiscal at once
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Multi-year drought with low Paraná flows
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 47 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.147 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos (INDEC) (ed.), Censo Nacional de Población, Hogares y Viviendas 2022: resultados definitivos (46,234,830 inhabitants; reference date 1 July 2022). INDEC, Buenos Aires, 2023. Observation year 2022. Read via press reports of the release, 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 6
  2. 2INDEC (ed.), Censo 2022: Indicadores demográficos por sexo y edad (ageing index 53 per 100, against 40 in 2010). INDEC, Buenos Aires, November 2023. Observation year 2022. Figure read via press summary of the report. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  3. 3INDEC (ed.), Incidencia de la pobreza y la indigencia en 31 aglomerados urbanos, primer semestre de 2026 (EPH). INDEC, Buenos Aires, 24 September 2026. Observation year 2026. Figures read via press summaries of the release, 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 7
  4. 4UNFCCC (ed.), Report on the technical expert review of the first biennial transparency report of Argentina, Addendum, FCCC/ETF/TERR.1/2024/ARG/Add.1. UNFCCC, Bonn, 22 January 2026. Observation years 2021–2022. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/terr1_2024_ARGa01.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
  5. 5Ministerio de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sostenible (ed.), Cuarto Informe Bienal de Actualización de la República Argentina a la CMNUCC (BUR4). Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 2021. Observation year 2018. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/4to%20Informe%20Bienal%20de%20la%20Rep%C3%BAblica%20Argentina.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
  6. 6Presidencia de la Nación (ed.), Announcement of Argentina’s nationally determined contribution (net ceiling of 375 MtCO₂e for 2030 and 2035). Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 3 November 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.argentina.gob.ar/node/484146, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
  7. 7Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Argentina: targets. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, data as of June 2026. Observation year 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/argentina/targets/, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
  8. 8Ember (ed.), Argentina electricity profile (low-carbon share of generation 42% in 2025). Ember, London, December 2025. Observation year 2025. https://ember-energy.org/es/paises-y-regiones/argentina/, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  9. 9CAMMESA (ed.), Annual electricity demand and renewable coverage 2025 (141,249 GWh; renewables 40.21% including large hydro; 738 MW added), as reported by the generators’ chamber. CAMMESA, Buenos Aires, 2026. Observation year 2025. Read via trade press summary. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  10. 10Secretaría de Energía (ed.), Crude oil production, July 2026 (916,200 barrels a day; +17.2% year on year to June), as reported by Infobae, 9 August 2026. Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.infobae.com/economia/2026/08/09/los-records-de-vaca-muerta-acercan-a-la-argentina-al-1-de-la-produccion-petrolera-mundial/, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 7, chapter 8
  11. 11International Energy Agency (ed.), Latin America Energy Outlook, Overview: Argentina. IEA, Paris, 2023. Observation years 2021–2022. https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/1fe309e7-95f1-48a8-b32f-4bea94de4fbe/Argentinaenergyprofile_EN.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  12. 12Bolsa de Cereales de Buenos Aires (ed.), Estimates for the 2022/23 harvest under drought (wheat 12.4 Mt, down 44%; soybeans 25 Mt; maize 36 Mt; farm-sector losses about US$33 billion), as reported by the press. BCBA, Buenos Aires, 2023. Observation year 2023. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  13. 13Bolsa de Cereales de Buenos Aires (ed.), Wheat estimate for 2025/26 (25.5 Mt), as reported by the press, 28 November 2025. BCBA, Buenos Aires, 2025. Observation year 2025. Estimate, not a final figure. Cited in the summary, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  14. 14Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (ed.), Report on the storm of 7 March 2025 at Bahía Blanca (about 290 mm in twelve hours; previous record 167.6 mm in 1933), as cited by BAE Negocios, 14 March 2025. SMN, Buenos Aires, 2025. Observation year 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 7, chapter 8
  15. 15Municipalidad de Bahía Blanca (ed.), Casualty count for the March 2025 floods (sixteen deaths), as reported by Argentine and international press, March and October 2025. Observation year 2025. Press-reported official data. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
  16. 16Servicio Nacional de Manejo del Fuego, Ministerio de Ambiente (ed.), Fire reports 2022 (723,765 hectares affected nationally), as analysed by Chequeado, “En 2022 se duplicó la superficie de hectáreas incendiadas”. Buenos Aires, 2023. Observation year 2022. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  17. 17Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (ed.), Satellite monitoring of fires in Corrientes, 2022 (1,042,514 hectares), as reported by the press. INTA, Buenos Aires, 2022. Observation year 2022. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3
  18. 18Flow analysis of the Paraná River and contextualisation of low flows in 2019/20, 2020/21 and 2021/22 hydrological years. Peer-reviewed journal article, Argentina. Observation years 2019–2022. Record read at https://bdu.siu.edu.ar/bdu/Record/I15-R229-article-224/Description, accessed 2026-11-03. Authors and journal to be confirmed from the article page. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  19. 19World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean 2025. WMO, Geneva, 18 May 2026. Observation year 2025. https://wmo.int/node/38574, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 6
  20. 20Ministerio de Salud (ed.), Boletín Epidemiológico Nacional: dengue and chikungunya, season 2025/26 (about 70 confirmed dengue cases; 27,178 suspected; 3,730 chikungunya cases confirmed or probable). Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.argentina.gob.ar/node/504298, accessed 2026-11-03. Counts differ between press reports of the bulletin (69 and 71). Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  21. 21Ecología Austral (ed.), Updated protected-area database for Argentina (land 10.41%, sea 8.49%). Asociación Ecología Austral, Buenos Aires, 2025. Observation year 2025. Read via search summary. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  22. 22Wildlife Conservation Society Argentina (ed.), Protected-area coverage and strict protection (about 2.2% of land and 5.8% of sea). WCS Argentina, Buenos Aires, June 2025. Observation year 2025. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  23. 23Greenpeace Argentina (ed.), Informe anual de deforestación en el norte de Argentina 2025 (94,204 hectares of native forest cleared; 116,498 hectares burned). Greenpeace Argentina, Buenos Aires, February 2026. Observation year 2025. NGO survey, not an official series. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  24. 24N. Jorge (ed.), Argentina report on deforestation 2000–2024. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, 5 September 2025. Observation years 2000–2024. Listed via the FAO AGRIS record; not read in full. Cited in chapter 6
  25. 25Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria and Ministerio de Ambiente (eds.), Segundo Inventario Nacional de Bosques Nativos (Parque Chaqueño about 31.6 million hectares of native forest), as summarised by CGIAR. Buenos Aires, 2020s. Observation year to be confirmed. Used as context only. Cited in chapter 8
  26. 26International Monetary Fund (ed.), Press Release No. 25/095: IMF reaches staff-level agreement with Argentina on a 48-month Extended Fund Facility (US$20 billion). IMF, Washington, DC, 8 April 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/04/08/pr25095-argentina-imf-reaches-staff-level-agreement-with-argentina-on-a-48-month-eff, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
  27. 27Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 27.520, Presupuestos mínimos de adaptación y mitigación al cambio climático global. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2019. Observation year 2019. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  28. 28Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 26.331, Presupuestos mínimos de protección ambiental de los bosques nativos. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2007. Observation year 2007. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
  29. 29Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 27.191, Régimen de fomento nacional para el uso de fuentes renovables de energía destinada a la producción de energía eléctrica. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2015. Observation year 2015. Cited in chapter 6
  30. 30Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 27.287, Sistema Nacional para la Gestión Integral del Riesgo y la Protección Civil. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2016. Observation year 2016. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  31. 31Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 26.639, Régimen de presupuestos mínimos para la preservación de los glaciares y del ambiente periglacial. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2010. Observation year 2010. Amendment status not verified. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  32. 32H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year 2023. Cited in chapter 6
  33. 33UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. Cited in chapter 6
  34. 34Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  35. 35UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Observation year 2015. Cited in chapter 6
  36. 36P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. Observation year 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 Cited in chapter 6
  37. 37J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Cited in chapter 6
  38. 38World Health Organization (ed.), World Health Statistics 2025. WHO, Geneva, 2025. Observation year 2025. Context only. Cited in chapter 6
  39. 39S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Cited in chapter 6
  40. 40S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Cited in chapter 6
  41. 41Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 25.675, Ley General del Ambiente. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2002. Observation year 2002. Cited in chapter 6
  42. 42Government of Argentina (ed.), Argentina’s updated nationally determined contribution (net ceiling of 349 MtCO₂e in 2030), submitted to the UNFCCC 2 November 2021, as recorded by Climate Action Tracker. Buenos Aires, 2021. Observation year 2021. Cited in chapter 1
  43. 43INDEC (ed.), Incidencia de la pobreza y la indigencia en 31 aglomerados urbanos, segundo semestre de 2025 (poverty 28.2% of people). INDEC, Buenos Aires, 2026. Observation year 2025. Figure read via press summaries. Cited in chapter 2
  44. 44International Monetary Fund (ed.), Argentina: second review under the Extended Fund Facility, staff-level agreement, as reported by MercoPress, 15 April 2026. IMF, Washington, DC, 2026. Observation year 2026. Context only. Cited in chapter 6
  45. 45Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025: Argentina country report. FAO, Rome, 2025. Observation year 2025. Source that would fill the forest-area gap; not reached at evidence close. Cited in chapter 8
  46. 46World Health Organization and UNICEF (eds.), Joint Monitoring Programme for Water Supply, Sanitation and Hygiene: Argentina country file. WHO and UNICEF, Geneva and New York, 2025. Observation year 2024. Source that would fill the water-coverage gap; not retrieved. Cited in chapter 8
  47. 47Secretaría de Energía (ed.), Balance energético nacional and gas production series. Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires. Observation year to be confirmed. Source that would fill the gas-output and trade-flow gaps; not retrieved at evidence close. Cited in chapter 8

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
Argentina Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Edition 2026–2030
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe Q1 2027 edition reports changes against this baselineQ1 2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-COUNTRY-ARG-2027-Q1-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
ARGNR-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias
NR-NAT-ARG-2026-BL
Collection
None
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. ARG edition Reports Argentina 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; ARG is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In Argentina Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Argentina’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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