Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

14 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Brazil’s risk runs through water, forest and fire
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Strong El Niño drought across rivers, hydropower and fire
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 48 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.148 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Estimativas da população residente no Brasil e unidades da federação com data de referência em 1º de julho de 2026 (SIDRA table 6579). IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 28 August 2026. Observation year: 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 6
  2. 2Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Censo Demográfico 2022: população residente por sexo e idade (SIDRA table 9514). IBGE, Rio de Janeiro. Observation year: 2022. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  3. 3Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), “PIB cresce 2,3% em 2025 e fecha o ano em R$ 12,7 trilhões,” Contas Nacionais Trimestrais. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 3 March 2026. Observation year: 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  4. 4Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Síntese de Indicadores Sociais 2025. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 3 December 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  5. 5Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Tábuas Completas de Mortalidade 2024. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 28 November 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 8
  6. 6Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios Contínua: Segurança Alimentar 2024. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 10 October 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  7. 7FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026. FAO, Rome, 21 July 2026, Brazil results as reported by the Federal Government on 30 July 2026. Observation year: 2023 to 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 8
  8. 8Federative Republic of Brazil (ed.), Brazil’s Nationally Determined Contribution: National determination to contribute and transform (second NDC). Submission to the UNFCCC, Brasília, November 2024. Observation year: 2024 (2005 reference; target year 2035). Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
  9. 9Observatório do Clima (ed.), SEEG 13: Análise das emissões brasileiras de gases de efeito estufa e suas implicações para as metas climáticas do Brasil, 1970 a 2024. Observatório do Clima, São Paulo, November 2025, read from press reports and search excerpts of the release because the report PDF returned HTTP 403. Observation year: 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
  10. 10Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (ed.), Balanço Energético Nacional 2026: Relatório Síntese, ano base 2025. EPE and Ministério de Minas e Energia, Rio de Janeiro, 3 June 2026, updated 31 July 2026. Observation year: 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  11. 11Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (ed.), Estimativa de desmatamento na Amazônia Legal para 2025 é de 5.796 km², Nota técnica, Programa BiomasBR (PRODES). INPE, São José dos Campos, October 2025. Observation year: 2025 (August 2024 to July 2025). Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  12. 12MapBiomas Alerta (ed.), Relatório Anual do Desmatamento no Brasil, RAD 2025: Destaques (factsheet, version of 26 May 2026). MapBiomas, São Paulo, 2026. Observation year: 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  13. 13MapBiomas (ed.), RAF 2024: primeiro Relatório Anual do Fogo. MapBiomas, São Paulo, 24 June 2025. Observation year: 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  14. 14MapBiomas (ed.), RAF 2025: segunda edição do Relatório Anual do Fogo no Brasil, released 21 July 2026, as reported by Correio Braziliense, “Área queimada no Brasil cai para 12,7 milhões de hectares em 2025, aponta MapBiomas,” July 2026. Observation year: 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  15. 15World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank and ECLAC (eds.), “BID, CEPAL e Grupo Banco Mundial estimam que atuação tempestiva evitou impacto de 1,1 ponto percentual do PIB no Rio Grande do Sul,” press release on the joint Damage and Loss Assessment of the 2024 floods. World Bank, Brasília, 28 November 2024. Observation year: 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  16. 16Governo do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul, Defesa Civil (ed.), “Situação nos municípios,” SOS Rio Grande do Sul, state portal, last updated 19 August 2025. Porto Alegre. Observation year: 2024 (event of April and May 2024). Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 8
  17. 17Ministério da Saúde (ed.), Painel de Monitoramento das Arboviroses, data to 28 December 2024, as reported by Agência Brasil, “Casos de dengue em 2024 passam de 6,4 milhões; mortes somam 5,9 mil,” January 2025. Observation year: 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
  18. 18World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean 2025. WMO, Geneva, 18 May 2026. Observation year: 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
  19. 19World Meteorological Organization (ed.), “Strong El Niño expected to intensify,” news release. WMO, Geneva, 31 July 2026. Observation year: 2026. Cited in chapter 7
  20. 20Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (ed.), balanço climático de 2024: annual mean temperature 25.02 °C, 0.79 °C above the 1991 to 2020 mean, warmest year since 1961, as reported by Brazilian press, January 2025. INMET, Brasília. Observation year: 2024. Cited in chapter 3
  21. 21Serviço Geológico do Brasil (ed.), Negro River gauge at the port of Manaus, level of 12.66 m on 4 October 2024, as reported by the Associated Press, “Drought has dried a major Amazon River tributary to its lowest level in over 122 years,” October 2024. SGB, Manaus. Observation year: 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 5, chapter 7, chapter 8
  22. 22World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), terrestrial and marine protected areas (ER.PTD.TOTL.ZS), people using safely managed drinking water and sanitation services (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, SH.STA.SMSS.ZS), Brazil. World Bank, Washington DC, data release of 8 October 2026, which post-dates evidence close; see the edition notes. Observation year: 2024 (forest, water, sanitation) and 2025 (protected areas). Cited in chapter 3, chapter 8
  23. 23Ministério das Cidades (ed.), Sistema Nacional de Informações em Saneamento Básico, SINISA 2024 (reference year 2023): resultados e indicadores. Ministério das Cidades, Brasília, 2025. Observation year: 2023 (listed as the source that would fill a gap; figures not used). Cited in chapter 8
  24. 24Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (ed.), 11º Levantamento da Safra de Grãos 2025/26, released 13 August 2026, as reported by Agência Brasil. CONAB, Brasília. Observation year: 2025/26 (agency estimate). Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
  25. 25Ministério das Relações Exteriores (ed.), “Over USD 5.5 billion announced for Tropical Forest Forever Facility as 53 countries endorse the historic TFFF launch declaration.” Government of Brazil, Brasília, November 2025. Observation year: 2025. Cited in chapter 6
  26. 26República Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei nº 15.042, de 11 de dezembro de 2024, institui o Sistema Brasileiro de Comércio de Emissões de Gases de Efeito Estufa (SBCE). Diário Oficial da União, Brasília, 2024. Observation year: 2024. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
  27. 27Conselho Monetário Nacional (ed.), Resolução CMN nº 4.943, de 15 de setembro de 2021, gerenciamento de riscos social, ambiental e climático. Banco Central do Brasil, Brasília, 2021. Observation year: 2021 (in force from 2022). Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  28. 28República Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei nº 14.026, de 15 de julho de 2020, atualiza o marco legal do saneamento básico. Diário Oficial da União, Brasília, 2020. Observation year: 2020. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  29. 29República Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei nº 12.187, de 29 de dezembro de 2009, institui a Política Nacional sobre Mudança do Clima. Diário Oficial da União, Brasília, 2009. Observation year: 2009. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
  30. 30República Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei nº 12.608, de 10 de abril de 2012, institui a Política Nacional de Proteção e Defesa Civil. Diário Oficial da União, Brasília, 2012. Observation year: 2012. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  31. 31República Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei nº 14.119, de 13 de janeiro de 2021, institui a Política Nacional de Pagamento por Serviços Ambientais. Diário Oficial da União, Brasília, 2021. Observation year: 2021. Cited in chapter 6
  32. 32Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year: 2022. Cited in chapter 6
  33. 33UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year: 2015. Cited in chapter 6
  34. 34UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Observation year: 2015. Cited in chapter 6
  35. 35H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year: 2023. Cited in chapter 6
  36. 36E. Castellanos, M. F. Lemos, L. Astigarraga et al., “Central and South America,” in Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, chapter 12. Cambridge University Press, 2022. Observation year: 2022. Cited in chapter 6
  37. 37P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. Observation year: 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 Cited in chapter 6
  38. 38J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year: 2018. Cited in chapter 6
  39. 39T. E. Lovejoy and C. Nobre, “Amazon tipping point,” Science Advances, vol. 4, no. 2, eaat2340, 2018. Observation year: 2018. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
  40. 40B. M. Flores, A. Montoya, I. Staal et al., “Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system,” Nature, vol. 626, pp. 555–564, 2024. Observation year: 2024. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  41. 41C. A. Boulton, T. M. Lenton and N. Boers, “Pronounced loss of Amazon rainforest resilience since the early 2000s,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 12, 2022. Observation year: 2022. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  42. 42D. M. Lapola, P. Pinho, J. Barlow et al., “The drivers and impacts of Amazon forest degradation,” Science, vol. 379, eabp8622, 2023. Observation year: 2023. Cited in chapter 6
  43. 43R. Rajão, B. Soares-Filho, F. Nunes et al., “The rotten apples of Brazil’s agribusiness,” Science, vol. 369, pp. 246–248, 2020. Observation year: 2020. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
  44. 44J.-C. Espinoza, J. C. Jimenez, J. A. Marengo et al., “The new record of drought and warmth in the Amazon in 2023 related to regional and global climatic features,” Scientific Reports, vol. 14, article 8107, 2024. Observation year: 2023. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  45. 45World Health Organization (ed.), “Dengue: global situation,” Disease Outbreak News, 2024-DON518. WHO, Geneva, 30 May 2024. Observation year: 2024 (to 30 April). Cited in chapter 2
  46. 46International Monetary Fund (ed.), “IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Brazil,” Press Release No. 26/257, with staff projections. IMF, Washington DC, 23 July 2026. Observation year: 2025 (staff estimates) and 2026. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
  47. 47S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year: 2026.
  48. 48S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year: 2026.

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
Brazil Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Edition 2026–2030
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe Q1 2027 edition reports changes against this baselineQ1 2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2027-Q1-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
BRANR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias
NR-NAT-BRA-2026-BL
Collection
None
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. BRA edition Reports Brazil 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; BRA is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In Brazil Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Brazil’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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