Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

12 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1China’s risk is climatic, seismic and demographic at continental scale
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Extreme rain on a dense plain in a hot summer
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 46 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.146 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communiqué of the People’s Republic of China on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development. NBS, Beijing, 28 February 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  2. 2National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Communiqué of the 1% National Population Sample Survey in 2025. NBS, Beijing, 22 May 2026. Observation date 1 November 2025. Cited in chapter 6
  3. 3National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration (ed.), China Climate Bulletin (2025). CMA, Beijing, 12 February 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  4. 4Ember (ed.), Yearly Electricity Data: China, generation, capacity and emissions intensity. Ember, London, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  5. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL) and Population ages 65 and above (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), from UN DESA World Population Prospects. World Bank, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2025.
  6. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Life expectancy at birth (SP.DYN.LE00.IN) and Mortality rate, infant (SP.DYN.IMRT.IN), from UN DESA World Population Prospects. World Bank, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2024. Cited in chapter 8
  7. 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Terrestrial protected areas (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), Marine protected areas (ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS), from UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, and Forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), from FAO. World Bank, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation years 2025 and 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
  8. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (ER.H2O.INTR.PC) and Annual freshwater withdrawals by sector (ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS, FWDM, FWIN), from FAO AQUASTAT. World Bank, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2022. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 8
  9. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), from the EDGAR Community GHG Database, Joint Research Centre, European Commission. World Bank, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2
  10. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Energy imports, net (EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), Food imports (TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN) and PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure (EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3). World Bank, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation years 2024, 2025 and 2023. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 8
  11. 11Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: China. FAO, Rome, reference date 29 January 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
  12. 12Government of China (ed.), China’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, Beijing, November 2025. Observation year 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  13. 13Climate Action Tracker (ed.), China: 2035 NDC assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6
  14. 14Disaster Investigation Team of the State Council (ed.), Investigation Report on the “7·20” Extraordinarily Heavy Rainstorm Disaster in Zhengzhou, Henan. Ministry of Emergency Management, Beijing, January 2022. Observation year 2021. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  15. 15Science and Technology Daily (ed.), “Dingri County earthquake has killed 126 people and injured 188 (西藏定日县地震已致126人遇难、188人受伤).” Beijing, 7 January 2025. Observation year 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4
  16. 16Ministry of Emergency Management of China (ed.), national natural disaster releases (全国自然灾害情况), monthly and annual. MEM, Beijing, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  17. 17Ministry of Water Resources of China (ed.), China Water Resources Bulletin. MWR, Beijing, retrieval blocked 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available. Cited in chapter 8
  18. 18Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China (ed.), national greenhouse gas inventory submitted to the UNFCCC (latest biennial report). MEE, Beijing, not opened 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available. Cited in the summary
  19. 19National Energy Administration of China (ed.), power industry statistics. NEA, Beijing, not retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available. Cited in chapter 8
  20. 20General Administration of Customs of China (ed.), import and export statistics for soybeans and feed. GACC, Beijing, not retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available. Cited in the summary, chapter 8
  21. 21National Health Commission of China (ed.), Statistical Bulletin on the Development of Health Care. NHC, Beijing, not retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  22. 22National Forestry and Grassland Administration of China (ed.), national park and forest resource statistics. NFGA, Beijing, not retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available. Cited in chapter 8
  23. 23National Financial Regulatory Administration of China (ed.), insurance industry statistics. NFRA, Beijing, not retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available. Cited in the summary, chapter 6
  24. 24Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (ed.), Energy Law of the People’s Republic of China. Beijing, adopted November 2024, in force 2025. Cited in chapter 6
  25. 25Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (ed.), Food Security Law of the People’s Republic of China. Beijing, adopted December 2023, in force 2024. Cited in chapter 6
  26. 26Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (ed.), Emergency Response Law of the People’s Republic of China, revised 2025. Beijing, 2025. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  27. 27Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (ed.), Yangtze River Protection Law of the People’s Republic of China. Beijing, 2020, in force 2021. Cited in chapter 6
  28. 28Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (ed.), Yellow River Protection Law of the People’s Republic of China. Beijing, 2022, in force 2023. Cited in chapter 6
  29. 29Ministry of Ecology and Environment and partner departments (eds.), National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy 2035. Beijing, 2022. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  30. 30State Council of China (ed.), Interim Regulations on Carbon Emissions Trading Management. Beijing, 2024. Cited in chapter 6
  31. 31S. Piao, P. Ciais, Y. Huang et al., “The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China,” Nature, vol. 467, pp. 43–51, 2010. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  32. 32Y. Sun, X. Zhang, F. W. Zwiers et al., “Rapid increase in the risk of extreme summer heat in Eastern China,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 4, pp. 1082–1085, 2014. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  33. 33Q. Zhao, Y. Guo, T. Ye et al., “Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019,” The Lancet Planetary Health, vol. 5, pp. e415–e425, 2021. Cited in chapter 6
  34. 34Y. Shan, D. Guan, H. Zheng et al., “China CO2 emission accounts 1997–2015,” Scientific Data, vol. 5, 170201, 2018. Cited in chapter 6
  35. 35J. Liu, H. Yang, S. N. Gosling et al., “Water scarcity assessments in the past, present, and future,” Earth’s Future, vol. 5, pp. 545–559, 2017. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  36. 36H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Cited in chapter 6
  37. 37UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Cited in chapter 6
  38. 38Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  39. 39UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Cited in chapter 6
  40. 40International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025. Cited in chapter 6
  41. 41P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 Cited in chapter 6
  42. 42J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Cited in chapter 6
  43. 43World Health Organization (ed.), World Health Statistics 2025. WHO, Geneva, 2025. Cited in chapter 6
  44. 44S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Cited in chapter 6
  45. 45S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Cited in chapter 6
  46. 46United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024. United Nations, New York, 2024. Observation year 2024. Cited in chapter 6

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
China Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Edition 2026–2030
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe Q1 2027 edition reports changes against this baselineQ1 2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-COUNTRY-CHN-2027-Q1-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
CHNNR-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias
NR-NAT-CHN-2026-BL
Collection
None
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

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Mirrors and harvest

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. CHN edition Reports China 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; CHN is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In China Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of China’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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