Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

5 min read1 figure0 tables7 notesNR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
    1. S.1 Abstract
    2. S.2 Key messages
    3. S.3 Headline finding
    4. S.4 At a glance
    5. S.5 What each steward reads in it
    6. S.6 What this edition is, and is not
  3. 1Food is where the systems meet
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Harvest shortfall under high input costs
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

S.1Abstract

The world enters 2027 with a food system that is exposed to several shocks at once. Hunger affected an estimated 7.8% of the world population in 2025, about 645 million people, down from 8.1% in 2024, and Africa now hosts the largest number of hungry people1. About 2.1 billion people (25.8%) were moderately or severely food insecure, and about 2.69 billion could not afford a healthy diet1. Acute food insecurity stayed high: about 266 million people in 47 countries and territories faced crisis levels or worse in 2025, and famine was confirmed in parts of the Gaza Strip and the Sudan41. The 2026 Middle East conflict cut export volumes through the Strait of Hormuz to less than 10% of pre-conflict levels in early March, and up to 30% of internationally traded fertilisers normally transit the strait14. International food prices rose: the FAO Food Price Index averaged 133.3 points in August 2026, 2.5% above a year earlier48. El Niño is forecast to persist into early 20278. Its effect on harvests and on the following lean season is not bound at the close. In early September FAO forecast world cereal output at 2,980 million tonnes, 2.0% below the 2025 record and still the second largest on record49. Food systems also emit: 16.5 Gt CO2eq in 2023, 32% of anthropogenic emissions21. This baseline sets out what the evidence supports and where it is thin. It ranks no country and recommends no policy.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the food baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  1. About 645 million in 2025, 7.8% of the world population, with Africa now the largest share.1

    How many people face hunger?Reported

  2. Yes, slowly. 25.8% were moderately or severely food insecure in 2025, down from 28.7% in 2020.1

    Is food insecurity falling?Reported

  3. About 2.69 billion could not in 2025, and the share is rising in Africa at 66.6%.1

    Can people afford healthy diets?Reported

  4. About 266 million people in 47 countries and territories, with famine confirmed in Gaza and the Sudan in 2025.41

    How severe are the acute crises?Reported

  5. Fertiliser and fuel supply and prices, through Gulf exports and the Strait of Hormuz.14

    What did the 2026 conflict change for farms?Reported

  6. Yes. The FAO index was 2.5% above a year earlier in August 2026.48

    Are food prices rising?Reported

  7. Output is forecast at the second largest on record, with ending stocks of 947.2 million tonnes and Black Sea routes flagged as a risk.49

    Is there enough grain?Reported

  8. A harvest shortfall that coincides with high input costs and constrained exports. SCN-GS03-HRV-01

    What will 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-002

In 2025, hunger affected 309 million people in Africa, 292 million in Asia and 32 million in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Figure S.1People facing hunger by region, 2025 (million)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Africa309
Asia292
Latin America and the Caribbean32

Source: SOFI 20261.

For the first time Africa hosts the largest number of hungry people. One in five Africans faced hunger in 2025, against 6.0% in Asia and 4.8% in Latin America and the Caribbean. By 2030 the SOFI scenarios place 56% of those facing hunger in Africa1.

S.4At a glance

7.8%

population facing hunger, 20251

2.1billion

food insecure, 20251

266million

acute food insecurity, 20254

133.3points

Food Price Index, August 202648

2,980million tonnes

cereal output forecast, 202649

16.5Gt CO2eq

agrifood emissions, 202321

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports reading food as the coupling layer of the WEFH+B system.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people food risk arrives as a price, a meal skipped or a lean season.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Import bills are at a record, price volatility has risen and humanitarian funding is falling.

NEXUS

Synthesis

The food system is well measured at the level of hunger, prices and stocks and thinly measured at the level of input use, losses and local yields.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the 2026 state of the world’s food and agrifood systems and the couplings through which it carries risk into other systems. It synthesises published evidence and ranks no country, company or asset.

What it is not

Not a food-security ranking, a forecast of prices or harvests, a supply recommendation or an assessment of any farmer, company, regulator or government. Agricultural policy, markets and food safety rest with national authorities, producers and traders.

What comes next

National, regional and sector evidence feeds the 2027 food edition through the federation. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline: observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (published 21 July 2026; full report opened). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 4European Commission Joint Research Centre (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026, summary page on Knowledge for Policy (the report was released 24 April 2026 by FAO, WFP and the Global Network Against Food Crises; the summary page was opened, the report was not). European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 14FAO (ed.), Global Agrifood Implications of the 2026 Conflict in the Middle East: Impacts on energy and fertiliser trade, and food security, information note of 15 March 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 48FAO (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release of 4 September 2026 (August 2026 values; newsroom release opened). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 8WMO (ed.), El Niño/La Niña Update, August 2026 (factsheet). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 49Rural Voice (ed.), report of 6 September 2026 on the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief of 4 September 2026 (the report was opened; the FAO brief page for that release was not, and only the later 2 October release was available). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 21FAO (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions from agrifood systems: Global, regional and country trends, 2001 to 2023, FAOSTAT Analytical Brief 115 (October 2025). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this summary

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Executive summary: Executive summary. In Global Food Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Food and Agrifood Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind Global Food and Agrifood Systems.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

Signature

Food and its partners

Food gives nutrition to health (0.7), land conversion to biodiversity (0.6) and withdrawals and runoff to water (0.3).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Food → Biodiversity · land conversion0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Water → Biodiversity · environmental flows0.6
  • Food → Health · nutrition0.7
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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