Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Risks and capability

Four food risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

5 min read0 figures1 table17 notesNR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Food is where the systems meet
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5Harvest shortfall under high input costs
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS03-TRD-001

    Constrained grain and fertiliser trade routes

    Driver
    conflict-related disruption to Black Sea shipping and to Gulf fertiliser exports314
    Exposure
    import-dependent economies and farmers who rely on imported nitrogen
    Vulnerability
    few alternative routes; no coordinated fertiliser reserves14
    Capacity
    grain ending stocks of 947.2 million tonnes forecast for 2026/27; alternative origins49
    Cascade
    TRD → FOO, FIN, HLT
    Horizon
    1 to 3 years

  2. InferredEQL 3RSK-GS03-CLI-002

    Concurrent harvest shortfalls under a strong El Niño

    Driver
    El Niño rainfall and heat anomalies; meandering jet streams raise the odds of concurrent low yields811
    Exposure
    rainfed and import-dependent regions, and the following lean season (not bound at close)
    Vulnerability
    models underestimate concurrent losses11; each degree of warming lowers yields of major crops17
    Capacity
    stocks; irrigation; early warning; adapted varieties
    Cascade
    CLI → FOO → FIN, HLT
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years

  3. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS03-GOV-003

    Protracted conflict and shrinking humanitarian funding

    Driver
    conflict, weather extremes, high prices and falling aid45
    Exposure
    ten countries hold about two thirds of acute food insecurity4
    Vulnerability
    famine risk in four contexts; displaced people most affected185
    Capacity
    anticipatory action; humanitarian assistance; national safety nets
    Cascade
    GOV → FOO, HLT
    Horizon
    1 to 3 years

  4. InferredEQL 3RSK-GS03-HLT-004

    Animal disease and foodborne hazards on global supply chains

    Driver
    persistent avian influenza in wild birds and poultry25; contamination along long chains9
    Exposure
    poultry and egg supply; traded fresh produce and animal products
    Vulnerability
    uneven surveillance; trade restrictions that go beyond risk25
    Capacity
    surveillance; biosecurity; Codex standards19
    Cascade
    HLT → FOO, TRD
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence for food at the global level.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationEXISTSfood safety systems and Codex standards widespread; implementation uneven199
Monitoring and observationADEQUATEIPC, price and cereal monitoring are regular423
Early warningDEMONSTRATEDfamine risk identified in advance; El Niño outlook issued months ahead188
Preparedness and planningEXISTSnational plans documented; not consolidated here
Redundancy and reservesEXISTScereal ending stocks of 947.2 million tonnes forecast for 2026/27; no coordinated fertiliser reserves4914
ResponseDEMONSTRATEDhumanitarian food assistance at scale; funding falling5
Continuity of critical servicesEXISTSports and shipping continuity; alternative Black Sea capacity insufficient3
RecoveryEXISTSacute food insecurity improved in the Gaza Strip after the October 2025 ceasefire, though fragile18
AdaptationEXISTSirrigation, cold-chain and research investment identified; adoption uneven122
Social protectionEXISTSsubsidy and safety-net instruments recorded; effects not consolidated here1
Finance and insuranceLISTEDfarm credit and import finance not consolidated here24
Institutional coordinationEXISTSGNAFC, Codex and joint FAO and WHO food safety work519
Technical infrastructureLISTEDcold-chain and post-harvest deficits reported1
WorkforceLISTEDagriculture employs about 25.8% of workers worldwide, modelled; extension capacity not consolidated15
Research capacityADEQUATEstrong crop and climate science; blind spots on concurrent failures11
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 3POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, release of 2 October 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 14FAO (ed.), Global Agrifood Implications of the 2026 Conflict in the Middle East: Impacts on energy and fertiliser trade, and food security, information note of 15 March 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 49Rural Voice (ed.), report of 6 September 2026 on the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief of 4 September 2026 (the report was opened; the FAO brief page for that release was not, and only the later 2 October release was available). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 8WMO (ed.), El Niño/La Niña Update, August 2026 (factsheet). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 11Kornhuber, K. et al., Risks of synchronised low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections, Nature Communications, 2023 (open access, full text). Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 17Zhao, C. et al., Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114, 9326 to 9331, 2017 (abstract opened through Europe PMC; full text not opened). National Academy of Sciences. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 4European Commission Joint Research Centre (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026, summary page on Knowledge for Policy (the report was released 24 April 2026 by FAO, WFP and the Global Network Against Food Crises; the summary page was opened, the report was not). European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 5Global Network Against Food Crises (ed.), Mid-Year Update of the 2026 Global Report on Food Crises, announcement of 21 September 2026 (data as of 31 August 2026). GNAFC, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 18POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO and WFP (eds.), Hunger Hotspots 2026: FAO-WFP early warnings on acute food insecurity, June to November 2026 outlook (highlights page opened; report not opened). Global Network Against Food Crises, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 25WOAH (ed.), High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza (HPAI) Situation Report 87 (period covered September 2026). World Organisation for Animal Health, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 9WHO (ed.), Food safety fact sheet, including the estimates of the global burden of foodborne diseases 2000 to 2021 published in 2026. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 19FAO and WHO (eds.), Codex Alimentarius Commission, portal pages (strategic plan 2026 to 2031 and committee news). Codex Alimentarius, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 2POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release of 2 October 2026 (September 2026 values). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 1FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (published 21 July 2026; full report opened). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 22FAO (ed.), The State of Food and Agriculture 2025: Addressing land degradation across landscapes. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 24FAO (ed.), Food Outlook: Biannual report on global food markets, June 2026 (food import bill chapter). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 15DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, database queried through the public interface (last updated 2026-10-08): employment in agriculture, agricultural value added, agricultural land, cereal yield, fertiliser consumption and agricultural freshwater withdrawals. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023 to 2025 (by series). Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In Global Food Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Food and Agrifood Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

ReportsContribute

Send evidence or a correction on Global Food and Agrifood Systems.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) Systems Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.

GCRI Systems Evidence deskGlobal Sector Risk and Resilience

Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.

CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.

Sector signature

The sectors behind Global Food and Agrifood Systems.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

Signature

Food and its partners

Food gives nutrition to health (0.7), land conversion to biodiversity (0.6) and withdrawals and runoff to water (0.3).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Food → Biodiversity · land conversion0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Water → Biodiversity · environmental flows0.6
  • Food → Health · nutrition0.7
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

Science · evidence · measurement

Not for profit

Our articles, maps and twins are free to read and free to republish. Readers and partners keep it that way.

Partner with us

Who funds us

GCRI is a not-for-profit institution. To ask who funds a piece of work, use the funding questions form.

Independence

Editors and the expert reviewers named on each article decide what we publish. Funders and partners do not review or approve articles before publication.

Corrections policy

Licence

Articles: CC BY 4.0. Figures, maps, twins and data: CC BY 4.0. Other uses: ask through the permissions form.

Privacy choices