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Systems and sectors at baseline

6 min read0 figures2 tables16 notesNR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Food is where the systems meet
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Harvest shortfall under high input costs
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

FOO · Food

Population facing hunger

7.8%

about 645 million people; 8.1% in 2024.

Reported2025FAO and partners1

FOO · Food

Moderately or severely food insecure

2.1billion

25.8% of the world population; 778.6 million severely.

Reported2025FAO and partners1

HLT · Health

People unable to afford a healthy diet

2.69billion

32.7% of people; 66.6% in Africa.

Reported2025FAO and partners1

FIN · Finance

FAO Food Price Index

133.3points

August 2026, up 2.5% on a year earlier.

Reported2026FAO48

GOV · Governance

People in acute food insecurity, 47 countries and territories

266million

22.9% of the analysed population.

Reported2025GRFC 20264

SYS · Cross-system

World cereal ending stocks (forecast)

947.2million tonnes

cut by 10.7 million tonnes since July.

Scenario2026/27FAO49

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through food, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries food risk into each domain.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATAgriculture is about 72% of freshwater withdrawals; 22.5% of cropland is irrigated and yields 48% of crop value; 171 million hectares of irrigated land face high water stress.FOO ↔ WATReported EQL 4
ENENitrogen fertiliser, farm fuel, freight and biofuel demand tie food to gas and oil; the 2026 Gulf disruption showed the link.ENE → FOOReported EQL 4
FOOHunger 7.8%, food insecurity 25.8%, prices up 2.5% on a year, cereal output the second largest on record.the core systemReported EQL 5
HLTAbout 2.69 billion people cannot afford a healthy diet; 866 million foodborne illnesses in 2021.FOO → HLTReported EQL 4
BIOMarine stocks within sustainable levels fell to 62.4%; 1.7 billion people live in areas with degradation-induced yield losses.FOO ↔ BIOReported EQL 4
CLIAgrifood emissions of 16.5 Gt CO2eq; a strong El Niño and heat shift yields and lean seasons.FOO ↔ CLIReported EQL 4
INFPorts, shipping lanes, storage and cold chains carry food; Black Sea routes were constrained in 2026.FOO ↔ INFReported EQL 3
FINThe world food import bill reached USD 2,218.4 billion in 2025; humanitarian food aid could fall about 45% between 2024 and 2026.FOO ↔ FINReported EQL 4
DATEarly warning rests on IPC, price and weather data; the acute food insecurity total depends on how many countries are analysed.DAT → FOOReported EQL 3
AICSatellite and model-based monitoring supports yield and price watching; the evidence is not consolidated here.AIC → FOOExpert input EQL 2
MINPhosphate, sulphur and potash are fertiliser inputs; the Gulf supplies a large share of traded nitrogen and sulphur.MIN → FOOReported EQL 3
TRDCereal trade for 2026/27 is forecast at 509.3 million tonnes, with Black Sea routes flagged as a risk.FOO ↔ TRDReported EQL 4

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on food, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemfood couples every other system114harvest shortfall under high input costsPARTIAL
GS-01Waterirrigation is about 72% of withdrawals23monsoon and El Niño rainfallPARTIAL
GS-02Energyfertiliser and fuel prices follow gas and oil14gas and fertiliser price shockPARTIAL
GS-03Foodhunger 7.8%, food insecurity 25.8%1harvest and input shockGOOD
GS-04Health2.69 billion cannot afford a healthy diet1malnutrition and foodborne diseaseGOOD
GS-05Financeimport bill USD 2,218.4 billion24price volatilityPARTIAL
GS-06Developmentacute food insecurity in 47 countries and territories4funding declineGOOD
GS-07ClimateEl Niño forecast into early 20278concurrent yield lossesPARTIAL
GS-08Disasterfamine risk in four contexts in 202618conflict and weather extremesPARTIAL
GS-09Infrastructureshipping routes and storage carry food3route constraintsTHIN
GS-10Citiesfood inflation reaches urban householdsprice pass-throughTHIN
GS-11Biodiversitymarine stocks 62.4% sustainable12overfishing and land conversionPARTIAL
GS-12Earth observationcrop and rainfall monitoring supports warningcontinuity of missionsTHIN
GS-13Cyber and digitaltrade and logistics platformsattacks on supply chainsTHIN
GS-14Policyfood safety and trade rules1931export restrictionsPARTIAL
GS-15Sciencestrong crop-climate science111617blind spots on concurrent failuresPARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (published 21 July 2026; full report opened). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 48FAO (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release of 4 September 2026 (August 2026 values; newsroom release opened). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 4European Commission Joint Research Centre (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026, summary page on Knowledge for Policy (the report was released 24 April 2026 by FAO, WFP and the Global Network Against Food Crises; the summary page was opened, the report was not). European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 49Rural Voice (ed.), report of 6 September 2026 on the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief of 4 September 2026 (the report was opened; the FAO brief page for that release was not, and only the later 2 October release was available). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 14FAO (ed.), Global Agrifood Implications of the 2026 Conflict in the Middle East: Impacts on energy and fertiliser trade, and food security, information note of 15 March 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 23FAO (ed.), The State of the World’s Land and Water Resources for Food and Agriculture 2025. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2022 to 2023 (by indicator). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 24FAO (ed.), Food Outlook: Biannual report on global food markets, June 2026 (food import bill chapter). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 8WMO (ed.), El Niño/La Niña Update, August 2026 (factsheet). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 18POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO and WFP (eds.), Hunger Hotspots 2026: FAO-WFP early warnings on acute food insecurity, June to November 2026 outlook (highlights page opened; report not opened). Global Network Against Food Crises, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 3POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, release of 2 October 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 12FAO (ed.), The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2026 (full report, June 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2024 (production) and 2023 (stock status). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 19FAO and WHO (eds.), Codex Alimentarius Commission, portal pages (strategic plan 2026 to 2031 and committee news). Codex Alimentarius, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EC) No 178/2002 laying down the general principles and requirements of food law (General Food Law), Official Journal of the European Communities, 2002, cited from memory. Observation year 2002. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 11Kornhuber, K. et al., Risks of synchronised low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections, Nature Communications, 2023 (open access, full text). Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 16Ray, D.K., West, P.C., Clark, M. et al., Climate change has likely already affected global food production, PLOS ONE 14(5), e0217148, 2019 (open access, full text). Public Library of Science. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 17Zhao, C. et al., Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114, 9326 to 9331, 2017 (abstract opened through Europe PMC; full text not opened). National Academy of Sciences. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In Global Food Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Food and Agrifood Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind Global Food and Agrifood Systems.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

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Food and its partners

Food gives nutrition to health (0.7), land conversion to biodiversity (0.6) and withdrawals and runoff to water (0.3).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Food → Biodiversity · land conversion0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Water → Biodiversity · environmental flows0.6
  • Food → Health · nutrition0.7
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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