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Food is where the systems meet

Part I describes systems and their couplings. It ranks no country or operator and assesses no authority.

7 min read2 figures2 tables14 notesNR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Food is where the systems meet
    1. 1.1 The questions this part answers
    2. 1.2 The argument
    3. 1.3 Twenty couplings between five systems
    4. 1.4 Reinforcing loops
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Harvest shortfall under high input costs
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

  • Where is food risk concentrated?
  • Which couplings carry food shocks into other systems?
  • Which food capabilities hold under compound stress?
  • What must 2027 evidence measure first?

In this part

  • Narrative
  • Headline finding
  • Lead figure
  • Five coupling chapters
  • Twelve-domain reading
  • Sector screens
  • Dependency matrix
  • Risk objects
  • Capability ladder
  • Scenario
  • Three lenses
  • Portfolio

1.2The argument

Food is usually reported as a sector: crops, prices, hunger. The 2026 evidence reads it as the place where the risks of several systems arrive together. Rainfall and irrigation, fertiliser and fuel, shipping routes, household income and public health all shape what reaches a plate23141.

On people, the evidence is mixed. Hunger and food insecurity have fallen for several years, and the long upward trend in Africa has halted, yet 645 million people still faced hunger in 2025 and Africa now hosts the largest number1. Healthy diets remain out of reach for about 2.69 billion people1.

On supply, the baseline is steady but tight in places. World cereal output is forecast at the second largest on record, while wheat output is forecast down 3.8% and Black Sea shipping is flagged as a risk to trade49. Prices have risen: the FAO index was 2.5% above a year earlier in August 202648. SOFI scenarios project between 510 and 520 million people facing hunger in 2030, 56% of them in Africa; these are scenario outputs, not forecasts1.

On shocks, three arrive together. The 2026 conflict disrupted fertiliser and fuel supply14. A very strong El Niño is forecast into early 20278. Humanitarian funding is shrinking just as acute crises persist5. No single indicator in this edition measures that combination, which is why it is the first item on the 2027 agenda.

Figure 1.1How unevenly is hunger spread? Share of the population facing hunger, 2025 (%)

The African share is more than two and a half times the world share. Latin America and the Caribbean and Asia have shown steady progress for several years, and the long upward trend in Africa halted in 20251.

ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Africa20
Oceania8
World7.8
Asia6
Latin America and the Caribbean4.8

Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2025.

Figure ID FIG-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-01-003

309million

people facing hunger in Africa, 20251

645million

people facing hunger worldwide, point estimate, 20251

66.6%

of Africans unable to afford a healthy diet, 20251

56%

share of hunger in Africa by 2030, SOFI scenarios1

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The food-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems, read for their food content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.

Figure 1.2Couplings between the five systems

Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.

  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Weak

Source: this edition’s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.

Table 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
From, toWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT Water·MODERATE
hydropower · cooling		STRONG
irrigation · rainfed supply		MODERATE
safe supply · hygiene		MODERATE
river flows
ENE EnergyMODERATE
pumping · treatment		·STRONG
fertiliser · fuel · cold chain		MODERATE
clean cooking · clinics		MODERATE
mining · land use
FOO FoodSTRONG
irrigation withdrawals · nutrient runoff		MODERATE
bioenergy · farm fuel		·STRONG
nutrition · foodborne disease		STRONG
land conversion · overfishing
HLT HealthWEAK
workforce		WEAK
workforce		MODERATE
labour · zoonoses		·WEAK
residues
BIO BiodiversityMODERATE
catchments		WEAK
biomass		STRONG
pollination · soils · fish stocks		WEAK
zoonoses		·
Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.

Transmission paths

  1. 01

    CLI → FOO → FIN

    A strong El Niño disrupts rainfall and heat; yields fall, and import bills and food prices rise.

    Inferred 2026 El Niño outlook86

  2. 02

    ENE → FOO

    Gas, fuel and fertiliser price shocks reach farm costs, yields and food prices.

    Reported 2026 Gulf disruption142

  3. 03

    TRD → FOO

    A constrained export route cuts grain trade and shifts importers to other origins.

    Reported 2026 Black Sea constraints313

  4. 04

    FOO → HLT

    Unaffordable diets and acute crises raise malnutrition.

    Reported 2025 nutrition crises4

  5. 05

    FOO → BIO → FOO

    Land conversion and overfishing erode the base that supplies food.

    Reported marine stocks12; degraded land22

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Table 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
LoopFirst directionSecond direction
WAT and FOOWater to food: irrigation · rainfed supplyFood to water: irrigation withdrawals · nutrient runoff
FOO and BIOFood to biodiversity: land conversion · overfishingBiodiversity to food: pollination · soils · fish stocks
A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 23FAO (ed.), The State of the World’s Land and Water Resources for Food and Agriculture 2025. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2022 to 2023 (by indicator). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 14FAO (ed.), Global Agrifood Implications of the 2026 Conflict in the Middle East: Impacts on energy and fertiliser trade, and food security, information note of 15 March 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 1FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (published 21 July 2026; full report opened). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 49Rural Voice (ed.), report of 6 September 2026 on the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief of 4 September 2026 (the report was opened; the FAO brief page for that release was not, and only the later 2 October release was available). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 48FAO (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release of 4 September 2026 (August 2026 values; newsroom release opened). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 8WMO (ed.), El Niño/La Niña Update, August 2026 (factsheet). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 5Global Network Against Food Crises (ed.), Mid-Year Update of the 2026 Global Report on Food Crises, announcement of 21 September 2026 (data as of 31 August 2026). GNAFC, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 6DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Food Security Update, October 2026 (data as of 16 October 2026). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 2POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release of 2 October 2026 (September 2026 values). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 3POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, release of 2 October 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 13POST-CLOSE, context only: US Department of Agriculture (ed.), World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WASDE-676, 9 October 2026. USDA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 4European Commission Joint Research Centre (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026, summary page on Knowledge for Policy (the report was released 24 April 2026 by FAO, WFP and the Global Network Against Food Crises; the summary page was opened, the report was not). European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 12FAO (ed.), The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2026 (full report, June 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2024 (production) and 2023 (stock status). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 22FAO (ed.), The State of Food and Agriculture 2025: Addressing land degradation across landscapes. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 1: Food is where the systems meet. In Global Food Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Food and Agrifood Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind Global Food and Agrifood Systems.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

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Food and its partners

Food gives nutrition to health (0.7), land conversion to biodiversity (0.6) and withdrawals and runoff to water (0.3).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Food → Biodiversity · land conversion0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Water → Biodiversity · environmental flows0.6
  • Food → Health · nutrition0.7
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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