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Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

8 min read0 figures5 tables18 notesNR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Food is where the systems meet
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Harvest shortfall under high input costs
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Food and water
    2. 8.2 Food and energy
    3. 8.3 Food and health
    4. 8.4 Food and nature
    5. 8.5 Food security, trade and extremes
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Food and water

Agriculture is the largest user of freshwater. Irrigated land is more productive than rainfed land, and rainfall shortfalls reach supply quickly, as the 2026 monsoon showed in India.

72%

of global freshwater withdrawals are for agriculture23

22.5%

of cropland is equipped for irrigation and gives 48% of crop value23

171million ha

of irrigated cropland under high or very high water stress23

Table 8.1State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Irrigationirrigated land yields 76% more than rainfed land on average2323Reported
Withdrawalsagriculture was 71.0% of freshwater withdrawals in 2022 in the World Bank series and about 72% in the FAO report15231523Reported
Monsoon and supplyreduced and poorly distributed 2026 monsoon rains tightened irrigation supplies in southern India33Reported
Runoff and qualitynutrient and pesticide loads are not consolidated here23Expert input

Couplings

  • WAT → FOO irrigation and rainfall
  • FOO → WAT withdrawals and runoff
  • ENE → FOO pumping and cold chain

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • nutrient and pesticide loads by region
  • irrigation exposure to multi-year dry spells

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-06 Development and Humanitarian
  • GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems

8.2Food and energy

Food depends on energy for fertiliser, fuel, freight, processing and cold chains. The 2026 Gulf disruption showed that the link runs through nitrogen fertiliser and freight as well as fuel.

30%

at most, of internationally traded fertilisers normally transit Hormuz14

30 to 35%

of global urea exports come from the Gulf14

3 to 4million tonnes

of fertiliser trade stalled each month, March 2026 estimate14

Table 8.2State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Fertiliser inputsMiddle East granular urea rose nearly 20% in early March 2026; no international strategic reserves exist1414Reported
Fuel and freightuncertainty over Hormuz shipping kept fuel, fertiliser and freight cost concerns elevated in September 202622Reported
Biofuel feedstocksstrong biofuel demand supported soy oil and maize prices22Reported
Fertiliser useabout 136 kilograms per hectare of arable land in 20231515Reported

Couplings

  • ENE → FOO fertiliser and fuel
  • MIN → FOO sulphur and phosphate
  • TRD → ENE → FOO price transmission

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • fertiliser prices and use after mid-2026
  • cold-chain power reliability

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-06 Development and Humanitarian
  • GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems

8.3Food and health

Diets drive health. The cost of a healthy diet, acute crises, contaminated food and animal disease all reach people through food.

2.69billion

unable to afford a healthy diet, 20251

866million

foodborne illnesses, 20219

35.5million

children acutely malnourished in 23 nutrition-crisis countries and territories, 20254

Table 8.3State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Diet costthe cost of a healthy diet rose to 4.28 PPP dollars in 2025; animal source foods and vegetables carry much of it11Reported
Child nutritionstunting 23.2% (150.2 million) in 2024; wasting 6.6%; adult obesity 16.2%11Reported
Food safety1.52 million deaths in 2021; children under 5 carry 29% of the burden99Reported
Animal disease7,831 avian influenza outbreaks in wild birds between October 2025 and September 2026 in 61 countries and territories; 20 poultry outbreaks in September 20262525Reported

Couplings

  • FOO → HLT diets and nutrition
  • HLT → FOO labour and zoonoses
  • GOV → FOO → HLT acute crises

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • nutrition outcomes after 2024
  • food safety incidents on a common basis

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-06 Development and Humanitarian
  • GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems

8.4Food and nature

Food production is the largest direct pressure on land and a major source of emissions. Nature is also the base that supplies food: fish stocks, soils and pollinators.

16.5Gt CO2eq

agrifood systems emissions, 202321

62.4%

of marine fish stocks within sustainable levels, 202312

1.7billion

people live in areas with degradation-induced yield losses22

Table 8.4State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Emissionslivestock 4.3 Gt and deforestation 2.8 Gt CO2eq in 20232121Reported
Fisheriesworld production of aquatic animals was 195 million tonnes in 2024; aquaculture was 53% of it1212Reported
Landagricultural land was 36.9% of land area in 202315; degradation-induced yield losses affect 1.7 billion people221522Reported
Climate and yieldsobserved climate change has likely cut calories from ten major crops by about 1%16; each degree of warming lowers yields of wheat, rice, maize and soybean171617Reported

Couplings

  • FOO → BIO land conversion and overfishing
  • BIO → FOO pollination, soils and stocks
  • FOO → CLI emissions

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • pollination and soil contributions to yields
  • ecosystem effects of fertiliser and pesticide use

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-06 Development and Humanitarian
  • GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems

8.5Food security, trade and extremes

Food security now depends on three channels the 2025 and 2026 evidence shows: trade routes, extreme weather and the capacity to respond to crises.

509.3million tonnes

cereal trade forecast for 2026/27, September estimate49

≈100%

probability that El Niño persists through early 2027, as forecast8

15of 33

countries and territories with comparable data deteriorated in mid-year data5

Table 8.5State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Trade routesBlack Sea export routes flagged as a risk to 2026/27 trade4949Reported
ExtremesEl Niño forecast into early 2027; the effect on the following lean season is not bound at close88Reported
Conflict and fundingabout 327,000 people expected in Catastrophe in 2026, down from 1.4 million in 2025; food aid could fall about 45%55Reported
Pricesthe FAO Food Price Index was 133.3 points in August 2026, 2.5% above a year earlier4848Reported

Couplings

  • TRD → FOO routes
  • CLI → FOO extremes
  • GOV → FOO conflict and funding

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • yield effects of the 2026 El Niño
  • alternative route capacity

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-06 Development and Humanitarian
  • GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 23FAO (ed.), The State of the World’s Land and Water Resources for Food and Agriculture 2025. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2022 to 2023 (by indicator). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 15DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, database queried through the public interface (last updated 2026-10-08): employment in agriculture, agricultural value added, agricultural land, cereal yield, fertiliser consumption and agricultural freshwater withdrawals. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023 to 2025 (by series). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 3POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, release of 2 October 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 14FAO (ed.), Global Agrifood Implications of the 2026 Conflict in the Middle East: Impacts on energy and fertiliser trade, and food security, information note of 15 March 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 2POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release of 2 October 2026 (September 2026 values). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 1FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (published 21 July 2026; full report opened). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 9WHO (ed.), Food safety fact sheet, including the estimates of the global burden of foodborne diseases 2000 to 2021 published in 2026. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 4European Commission Joint Research Centre (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026, summary page on Knowledge for Policy (the report was released 24 April 2026 by FAO, WFP and the Global Network Against Food Crises; the summary page was opened, the report was not). European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 25WOAH (ed.), High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza (HPAI) Situation Report 87 (period covered September 2026). World Organisation for Animal Health, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 21FAO (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions from agrifood systems: Global, regional and country trends, 2001 to 2023, FAOSTAT Analytical Brief 115 (October 2025). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 12FAO (ed.), The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2026 (full report, June 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2024 (production) and 2023 (stock status). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 22FAO (ed.), The State of Food and Agriculture 2025: Addressing land degradation across landscapes. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 16Ray, D.K., West, P.C., Clark, M. et al., Climate change has likely already affected global food production, PLOS ONE 14(5), e0217148, 2019 (open access, full text). Public Library of Science. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 17Zhao, C. et al., Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114, 9326 to 9331, 2017 (abstract opened through Europe PMC; full text not opened). National Academy of Sciences. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 49Rural Voice (ed.), report of 6 September 2026 on the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief of 4 September 2026 (the report was opened; the FAO brief page for that release was not, and only the later 2 October release was available). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 8WMO (ed.), El Niño/La Niña Update, August 2026 (factsheet). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 5Global Network Against Food Crises (ed.), Mid-Year Update of the 2026 Global Report on Food Crises, announcement of 21 September 2026 (data as of 31 August 2026). GNAFC, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 48FAO (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release of 4 September 2026 (August 2026 values; newsroom release opened). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In Global Food Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Food and Agrifood Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind Global Food and Agrifood Systems.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

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Food and its partners

Food gives nutrition to health (0.7), land conversion to biodiversity (0.6) and withdrawals and runoff to water (0.3).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Food → Biodiversity · land conversion0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Water → Biodiversity · environmental flows0.6
  • Food → Health · nutrition0.7
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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