Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Data appendix

The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.

10 min read0 figures8 tables18 notesNR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Food is where the systems meet
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Harvest shortfall under high input costs
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
    1. B.1 The indicator set
    2. B.2 Global source register
    3. B.3 Regional reading: food across ten clusters
    4. B.4 Route card: Black Sea cereal exports
    5. B.5 How countries appear in the food edition
    6. B.6 Licences
    7. B.7 Formats and provenance
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

B.1The indicator set

Table B.1Global baseline indicator set
IndicatorValueUnitYearStateSource
Population facing hunger7.8%2025Reported1
People facing hunger, point estimate645million2025Reported1
People facing hunger, range608 to 696million2025Reported1
Moderately or severely food insecure25.8%2025Reported1
Severely food insecure778.6million2025Reported1
Unable to afford a healthy diet2.69billion2025Reported1
Cost of a healthy diet4.28PPP dollars2025Reported1
Child stunting23.2%2024Reported1
Hunger in 2030, SOFI scenarios510 to 520million2030Scenario1
Acute food insecurity, 47 countries and territories266million2025Reported4
Acute food insecurity share in 2024, SOFI22.7%2024Reported1
Acute food insecurity share in 2024, JRC summary22.3%2024Reported4
Children acutely malnourished in nutrition crises35.5million2025Reported4
FAO Food Price Index, August 2026133.3points2026Reported48
FAO wheat prices, change on a year earlier, August 202615.0%2026Reported48
World cereal production, FAO forecast2,980million tonnes2026Scenario49
World wheat production, FAO forecast810.7million tonnes2026Scenario49
World cereal ending stocks 2026/27, FAO forecast947.2million tonnes2026/27Scenario49
World cereal trade 2026/27, FAO forecast509.3million tonnes2026/27Scenario49
World food import bill2,218.4USD billion2025Reported24
Agrifood systems emissions, FAO16.5Gt CO2eq2023Reported21
Food-system emissions, EDGAR-FOOD18Gt CO2eq2015Reported10
Marine stocks within sustainable levels62.4%2023Reported12
Foodborne illnesses866million2021Reported9
Employment in agriculture, modelled25.8%2025Reported15
Agriculture share of freshwater withdrawals, World Bank71.0%2022Reported15
Agriculture share of freshwater withdrawals, FAO72%2025 reportReported23
Indicators, CSVIndicators, JSON

B.2Global source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

  • FOO
  • HLT
  • CLI
  • FIN
  • TRD
  • GOV
  • BIO
  • ENE
  • WAT
  • INF
Table B.3Global source register
SourceCategoryCoveragePeriodCadenceRole
SOFI 20261UN agenciesglobal2025annualhunger, diets
FAO Food Price Index2intergovernmental agencyglobal2026monthlyprices
FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief3intergovernmental agencyglobal2026monthlysupply, stocks
GRFC 2026 summary4European Commission research serviceglobal2025annualacute food insecurity
GRFC mid-year update5multi-agency networkglobal2026annualacute food insecurity
World Bank Food Security Update6multilateral bankglobal2026monthlyinflation, El Niño
WMO El Niño/La Niña Update8UN agencyglobal2026periodicseasonal outlook
WHO food safety fact sheet9UN agencyglobal2021periodicfoodborne disease
USDA WASDE13national statistics agencyglobal2026monthlystocks, trade
FAO SOFIA 202612intergovernmental agencyglobal2024biennialfisheries

B.3Regional reading: food across ten clusters

Map plates follow with the regional Baseline Editions, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form and ranks no region.

Table B.4Regional reading: food across ten clusters
RegionPrincipal hazardsSystems most exposedBaseline evidence
North Americadry weather before winter wheat planting; smallest US wheat crop since 1970grains, feed, exportsFAO2; USDA13
South Americalower maize export availability in Brazil; ample poultry exportsmaize, meat, oilseedsFAO2
Europesummer heatwaves cut animal growth; dry, hot weather curbed maize yieldsgrains, meatFAO23
EurasiaBlack Sea logistics flagged as a risk to tradewheat, maize, sunflower oilFAO49
Middle East and North Africaimport dependence; Gulf fertiliser exports; lower feed use in Egyptgrains, fertiliserFAO143
Africahunger at 20.0%; healthy diet out of reach for 66.6%; 58 to 69 million people may need assistance in East and Southern Africa by April 2027households, health, lean seasonSOFI1; World Bank6
South Asiapoorly distributed monsoon rains tightened irrigation supplies in India; acute food insecurity worsened in Bangladeshrice, householdsFAO3; GRFC update5
East AsiaChina drawing on sorghum stocks and buying abroad; larger rice plantings in Japanfeed, riceFAO23
ASEANdry-weather concern for palm oil in Southeast Asiavegetable oilsFAO2
Oceania-PacificAustralian wheat yields still below average; hunger at 8.0% in Oceaniawheat, barley, small islandsFAO3; SOFI1

B.4Route card: Black Sea cereal exports

  • route
  • cereals
  • sunflower oil
  • importers
Systems in view
grains, oilseeds, shipping, importing households
Defining events
constrained Black Sea shipping and export capacity through alternative routes in 202632
Couplings
TRD → FOO supply; FOO → FIN prices; FOO → HLT diets
Capability evidence
importers shifting to other origins2
Gaps
alternative route capacity; storage at ports
Agenda items
F-01 · F-04

Wheat and maize exports were lowered for 2026/27 on constrained Black Sea shipping and insufficient alternative transport capacity [3].

TRADE

Export capacity

Importers shifted to other origins, which pushed wheat prices to their highest since August 2023 [2].

SECURITY

Import dependence

FAO and USDA both report constrained flows with different totals; the issuers use different methods [3] [13].

LEARNING

Two issuers

B.5How countries appear in the food edition

Countries enter the food edition through the food chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never ranked.

Table B.5How countries appear in the food edition
Card fieldWhat it showsSource
WEFH+B stateeach core system against peer distribution bandsnational edition
Couplingsthe national dependency matrixnational edition
Risk objectsthe national risk portfolionational edition
Capability rungsthe national capability laddernational edition
Evidence ageoldest and newest source datesnational source register

Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme

26national

countries and unions

10regional

clusters

16global

flagship and sector

14strategic

systems reports

20frontier

technology reports

How to read a country card

  • Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist
  • Couplings and risk objects come from the country’s own national edition
  • Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions
  • Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such
Table B.6National Baseline Editions in the 2026 programme
WaveCountries and unionsState
W0CanadaISSUED
W1United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, European Union, SwitzerlandPLANNED
W2Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Türkiye, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, South Africa, Senegal, Kenya, African Union, India, China, Republic of Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, AustraliaPLANNED

B.6Licences

Table B.7Licences of each kind of material
MaterialLicence
TextCC BY 4.0
Dataon the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0
FiguresNexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited
Mapsboundary source and licence printed on each plate
MetadataCC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it
Third-party data, figures and textThe source’s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed
Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence.

B.7Formats and provenance

Table B.8This edition in every format
FormatKindStateWhat it isIdentifier
Web editionHTMLOn this siteDraft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source.NR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Print editionPDFAt releaseA4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release.NR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Indicator dataCSV · JSONOn this site27 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release.NR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE data release v1
FiguresSVG · PNGOn this site4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder.FIG-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-*
SlidesPDFNot recordedNo slide deck is recorded for this edition.
Evidence briefHTML · PDFNot recordedNo evidence brief is recorded for this edition.
Dataset with DOIDataCiteAt releaseConcept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.

Provenance

Edition pack
The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built
Evidence cut
DC-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026
Reproducibility
sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
Self-check
14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release
Review
five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium
Corrections
Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (published 21 July 2026; full report opened). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 4European Commission Joint Research Centre (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026, summary page on Knowledge for Policy (the report was released 24 April 2026 by FAO, WFP and the Global Network Against Food Crises; the summary page was opened, the report was not). European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 48FAO (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release of 4 September 2026 (August 2026 values; newsroom release opened). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 49Rural Voice (ed.), report of 6 September 2026 on the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief of 4 September 2026 (the report was opened; the FAO brief page for that release was not, and only the later 2 October release was available). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 24FAO (ed.), Food Outlook: Biannual report on global food markets, June 2026 (food import bill chapter). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 21FAO (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions from agrifood systems: Global, regional and country trends, 2001 to 2023, FAOSTAT Analytical Brief 115 (October 2025). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 10Crippa, M., Solazzo, E., Guizzardi, D. et al., Food systems are responsible for a third of global anthropogenic GHG emissions, Nature Food 2, 198 to 209, 2021 (open access, full text). Springer Nature. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 12FAO (ed.), The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2026 (full report, June 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2024 (production) and 2023 (stock status). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 9WHO (ed.), Food safety fact sheet, including the estimates of the global burden of foodborne diseases 2000 to 2021 published in 2026. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 15DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, database queried through the public interface (last updated 2026-10-08): employment in agriculture, agricultural value added, agricultural land, cereal yield, fertiliser consumption and agricultural freshwater withdrawals. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023 to 2025 (by series). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 23FAO (ed.), The State of the World’s Land and Water Resources for Food and Agriculture 2025. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2022 to 2023 (by indicator). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 2POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release of 2 October 2026 (September 2026 values). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 3POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, release of 2 October 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 5Global Network Against Food Crises (ed.), Mid-Year Update of the 2026 Global Report on Food Crises, announcement of 21 September 2026 (data as of 31 August 2026). GNAFC, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 6DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Food Security Update, October 2026 (data as of 16 October 2026). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 8WMO (ed.), El Niño/La Niña Update, August 2026 (factsheet). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 13POST-CLOSE, context only: US Department of Agriculture (ed.), World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WASDE-676, 9 October 2026. USDA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 14FAO (ed.), Global Agrifood Implications of the 2026 Conflict in the Middle East: Impacts on energy and fertiliser trade, and food security, information note of 15 March 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex B: Data appendix. In Global Food Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Food and Agrifood Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind Global Food and Agrifood Systems.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

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Food and its partners

Food gives nutrition to health (0.7), land conversion to biodiversity (0.6) and withdrawals and runoff to water (0.3).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Food → Biodiversity · land conversion0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Water → Biodiversity · environmental flows0.6
  • Food → Health · nutrition0.7
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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