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Harvest shortfall under high input costs

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

2 min read0 figures0 tables3 notesNR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Food is where the systems meet
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Harvest shortfall under high input costs
    1. 5.1 Assumptions
    2. 5.2 The cascade, step by step
    3. 5.3 The scenario as a table of steps
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-GS03-HRV-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline
the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers
a strong El Niño that cuts yields in several regions while fertiliser, fuel and freight costs stay high and one major export route stays constrained
Analogues
the 2026 Gulf and Black Sea disruptions143; the El Niño outlook8
Interventions
none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state
narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

  1. 1

    ENE → FOO

    fertiliser and fuel costs stay high; farmers cut input use

    2026

  2. 2

    CLI → FOO

    rainfall and heat anomalies lower yields in several regions

    2026

  3. 3

    TRD → FOO

    export availability falls; importers compete for other origins

    2026

  4. 4

    FOO → FIN

    import bills and domestic food prices rise

    2025 · 2026

  5. 5

    FOO → HLT

    diet quality falls and acute malnutrition rises in the lean season

    2025

  6. 6

    GOV → FOO

    humanitarian need grows as funding falls

    2026

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-GS03-HRV-01 would travel through Global Food and Agrifood Systems‘s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

StepWhat happensSource
01 Energy to foodFertiliser and fuel costs stay high; farmers cut input use. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition GS-03, scenario SCN-GS03-HRV-01, step 1
02 Climate to foodRainfall and heat anomalies lower yields in several regions. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition GS-03, scenario SCN-GS03-HRV-01, step 2
03 Trade to foodExport availability falls; importers compete for other origins. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition GS-03, scenario SCN-GS03-HRV-01, step 3
04 Food to financeImport bills and domestic food prices rise. Analogue or source: 2025 · 2026.Edition GS-03, scenario SCN-GS03-HRV-01, step 4
05 Food to healthDiet quality falls and acute malnutrition rises in the lean season. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition GS-03, scenario SCN-GS03-HRV-01, step 5
06 Governance to foodHumanitarian need grows as funding falls. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition GS-03, scenario SCN-GS03-HRV-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Global Food 2026, scenario SCN-GS03-HRV-01 (2026); Global Food 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 14FAO (ed.), Global Agrifood Implications of the 2026 Conflict in the Middle East: Impacts on energy and fertiliser trade, and food security, information note of 15 March 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 3POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, release of 2 October 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 8WMO (ed.), El Niño/La Niña Update, August 2026 (factsheet). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 5: Harvest shortfall under high input costs. In Global Food Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Food and Agrifood Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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The sectors behind Global Food and Agrifood Systems.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

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Food and its partners

Food gives nutrition to health (0.7), land conversion to biodiversity (0.6) and withdrawals and runoff to water (0.3).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Food → Biodiversity · land conversion0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Water → Biodiversity · environmental flows0.6
  • Food → Health · nutrition0.7
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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