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The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 food agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 food edition.

5 min read0 figures6 tables4 notesNR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Food is where the systems meet
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Harvest shortfall under high input costs
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027: evidence pack for the food candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. F-01

    How would a harvest shortfall under a strong El Niño, with high fertiliser and freight costs, travel through trade, prices and health at once?

    INI-GS03-HRV-01 · harvest shortfall under high input costs; first output: concurrency analysis for six regions.

  2. F-02

    How far did fertiliser use and farm margins fall after the first half of 2026, and where?

    INI-GS03-INP-02 · fertiliser and fuel dependence; first output: input-use and margin table by region.

  3. F-03

    Where do diet cost, income and food price shocks combine to put healthy diets out of reach?

    INI-GS03-DIE-03 · diet affordability and nutrition; first output: affordability overlay for twelve countries.

  4. F-04

    Which cereal and oilseed export routes lack workable alternatives when one route is constrained?

    INI-GS03-ROU-04 · trade routes and chokepoints; first output: route dependence map.

  5. F-05

    Which warnings of famine risk led to anticipatory action, and which did not?

    INI-GS03-EWN-05 · early warning and anticipatory action; first output: warning-to-action register.

  6. F-06

    How much food is lost or wasted, on one current basis, and where?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: basis note.

  7. F-07

    How do heat, rainfall and animal disease change supply together?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

  8. F-08

    Which food-system capabilities have been tested in real shortfalls, and which are only planned?

    Food capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 food portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-GS03-HRV-01Harvest shortfall under high input costsInitiativeF-01PROPOSED
INI-GS03-INP-02Fertiliser and fuel dependenceInitiativeF-02PROPOSED
INI-GS03-DIE-03Diet affordability and nutritionInitiativeF-03PROPOSED
INI-GS03-ROU-04Trade routes and chokepointsInitiativeF-04PROPOSED
INI-GS03-EWN-05Early warning and anticipatory actionInitiativeF-05PROPOSED
MSN-GS03-2027-01Harvest shortfall Universe missionMissionF-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

The food edition reads national food chapters, regional crop, trade and nutrition evidence and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

  1. 01

    National food chapters

    food system of each national edition

    PLANNED · national baselines

  2. 02

    Crop, trade and nutrition evidence

    shared trade routes, crop regions and food-crisis contexts

    PLANNED · regional Baseline Editions

  3. 03

    Food sector model

    the global food and agrifood system of systems

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence

  4. 04

    Global and strategic links

    GLB Global Systems · GS-01 Water · GS-02 Energy · GS-04 Health and One Health

    PLANNED · sector baselines

  5. 05

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027

  6. 06

    Global Food Report

    this series

    BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition

  7. 07

    Evidence and correction

    one graph, many projections

    OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the food candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027: evidence pack for the food candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNED2027 global annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-GS03-2027-01 · Harvest shortfall Universe mission
Role spine
Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
FOO-001 · hungerpublic recordreference for the 2027 seriesPUBLIC
HLT-004 · diet costINI-GS03-DIE-03diet affordability and nutritionPUBLIC
GOV-005 · acute crisesINI-GS03-EWN-05early warning and anticipatory actionPUBLIC
TRD-006 · inputsINI-GS03-INP-02fertiliser and fuel dependencePUBLIC
FIN-007 · pricespublic recordmonthly price watchPUBLIC
FOO-008 · supplyINI-GS03-ROU-04trade routes and chokepointsPUBLIC
CLI-009 · El NiñoINI-GS03-HRV-01 · key F reviewharvest shortfall under high input costsPUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-GS03-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the federationconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
Food Price IndexFAOmonthlyFIN-007
Cereal Supply and Demand BriefFAOmonthlyFOO-008
World Agricultural Supply and Demand EstimatesUS Department of AgriculturemonthlyFOO-008
Food Security UpdateWorld BankmonthlyCLI-009
Global Report on Food Crises and mid-year updateGNAFCannual and mid-yearGOV-005
El Niño/La Niña UpdateWMOperiodicCLI-009
HPAI situation reportsWOAHmonthlyHLT-011

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • annual publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-GS03-001Black Sea export routes constrained in 2026313CORROBORATEDTRD · FOOresearch question F-04
SIG-GS03-002Gulf fertiliser trade disrupted from March 202614CORROBORATEDENE · FOOinitiative F-02
SIG-GS03-003El Niño forecast into early 20278PARTIALCLI · FOOresearch question F-01

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 3POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, release of 2 October 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 13POST-CLOSE, context only: US Department of Agriculture (ed.), World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WASDE-676, 9 October 2026. USDA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 14FAO (ed.), Global Agrifood Implications of the 2026 Conflict in the Middle East: Impacts on energy and fertiliser trade, and food security, information note of 15 March 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 8WMO (ed.), El Niño/La Niña Update, August 2026 (factsheet). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In Global Food Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Food and Agrifood Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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The sectors behind Global Food and Agrifood Systems.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

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Food and its partners

Food gives nutrition to health (0.7), land conversion to biodiversity (0.6) and withdrawals and runoff to water (0.3).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
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Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
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Strongest relations in play

  • Food → Biodiversity · land conversion0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Water → Biodiversity · environmental flows0.6
  • Food → Health · nutrition0.7
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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