- Global Food 2026
- Annex A
Methodology
How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Food is where the systems meet
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Harvest shortfall under high input costs
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
A.1Methods
The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.
| No. | Derivation | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | Africa’s share of people facing hunger, 2025 | 309 ÷ 645 | ≈48% |
| (2) | Severe share of moderate or severe food insecurity, 2025 | 9.5 ÷ 25.8 | ≈37% |
| (3) | Implied 2025 world cereal output, from the 2026 forecast and the stated fall of 61.1 million tonnes | 2,980 + 61.1 | ≈3,041 million tonnes |
| (4) | Rise in the cost of a healthy diet, 2017 to 2025 | 4.28 ÷ 2.94 | ≈1.46 times |
| Strength | Definition |
|---|---|
| STRONG | a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season, in more than one region |
| MODERATE | an effect is documented but buffered or slower |
| WEAK | an effect is plausible but not documented at global scale |
| Label | Rule |
|---|---|
| Reported | value as issued by its source, with year |
| Inferred | reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement |
| Estimated | Nexus analytical value with stated method |
| Scenario | conditional on stated assumptions |
| Expert input | structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence |
A.2Model card, Food Sector Model v0
- Model ID
- MDL-GS03-FOOD · v0.1
- Purpose
- represent the global food and agrifood system and its couplings to water, energy, health and biodiversity
- Family
- graph-based system of systems
- Inputs
- the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
- Method
- expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events
- Validation
- none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027
- Uncertainty
- qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
- Domain of validity
- global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use
- Reproducibility
- strength table and sources published in this edition
20couplings
typed in v0
6strong
documented within one season
9moderate
documented, buffered
5weak
plausible, undocumented
A.3The baseline evidence cut
Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.
- Cut ID
- DC-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-B0
- Type
- baseline documentary cut
- Resolution policy
- pinned · as of 30 September 2026
- Sources pinned
- 49 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references
- Model runs
- none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
- Digest
- computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
- Supersedes
- nothing, first cut of the series
- Superseded by
- the 2027 food annual cut
Lineage
- 01
source edition
- 02
pinned citation
- 03
finding
- 04
page
- 05
publication record
| Element | Baseline 2026 | 2027 global annual |
|---|---|---|
| Sources | cited global publications, pinned by edition | national, regional and sector cuts through one graph |
| Analysis | stated methods and editorial estimates | typed analysis specifications |
| Models | Food Sector Model v0 specification | model runs with receipts |
| Findings | twelve baseline findings | findings re-bound to federation evidence |
| Review | five passes scheduled | five passes on the exact digest |
A.4Evidence age and coverage
A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.
| Indicator | Observed | Released | Cadence | Next release |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunger and food insecurity | 2025 | Jul 2026 | annual | next SOFI |
| Acute food insecurity | 2025 | Apr 2026; mid-year Sep 2026 | annual and mid-year | next GRFC |
| Food prices | 2026 | Oct 2026 | monthly | monthly |
| Cereal supply and stocks | 2026 | Oct 2026 | monthly | monthly |
| Fertiliser and fuel trade | 2026 | Mar 2026 | one-off | not bound after March |
| El Niño outlook | 2026 | Aug 2026 | periodic | next WMO update |
| Foodborne disease burden | 2021 | 2026 | periodic | next WHO estimate |
| Fisheries and aquaculture | 2024 | Jun 2026 | biennial | 2028 |
| Agrifood emissions | 2023 | Oct 2025 | annual | next FAOSTAT update |
| Avian influenza | 2026 | Oct 2026 | monthly | monthly |
| System | Coverage | Thinnest dimension |
|---|---|---|
| Hunger and diets | GOOD | subnational detail |
| Acute food crises | GOOD | consistent country coverage |
| Prices and stocks | GOOD | local and retail prices |
| Inputs and fertiliser | PARTIAL | prices and use after mid-2026 |
| Climate and yields | PARTIAL | El Niño yield effects by region |
| Food safety | PARTIAL | incident data on a common basis |
| Loss and waste | THIN | a current common global basis |
| Resilience | PARTIAL | tested capabilities beyond stocks and aid |
| Field | Source that would fill it | Blocker |
|---|---|---|
| Fertiliser prices and farm input use after the first half of 2026 | World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook, October 202646; FAO and national statistics | only the landing page of the outlook was opened; the FAO note14 covers March 2026 only |
| Share of global urea and ammonia trade that resumed after March 2026 | FAO and trade analysts14 | not published in the documents opened; no estimate made |
| Crop yield effects of the 2026 El Niño, by region | national forecasts; FAO Crop Prospects; WMO8 | the season is under way and outcomes are not yet reported |
| Food loss and waste on a current common basis | UNEP Food Waste Index26; FAO Food Loss Index | the UNEP report was not opened; only the IPCC range of 25 to 30% of food produced20 is used, and it is older |
| Ten-year baseline for production, prices and emissions | OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026 to 203527 | the report was not opened; no figure used |
| Full Global Report on Food Crises 2026 tables | GRFC 2026 full report28 | the report file was not retrievable; totals come from the summary and from SOFI41 |
| Famine classification detail for Gaza, the Sudan and Somalia | IPC analyses44 | the IPC site blocked automated access; the summary in Hunger Hotspots is used18 |
| Export restrictions on food and fertiliser in 2026 | IFPRI tracker43; AMIS Market Monitor45 | the tracker page returned no content and the monitor page was blocked |
| Pollination and soil contributions to yields, global series | IPBES36; FAO soil assessments | not opened; no figure used |
| Pesticide, antimicrobial and nutrient pollution loads, by region | FAO, UNEP, national agencies | no consolidated global series found at evidence close |
| Cold-chain and storage capacity in importing regions | FAO; national ministries | not published on a common basis |
| Retail and local food prices for the countries in acute crisis | FAO FPMA tool; national statistics offices | not retrieved; only international prices are used |
| IMF growth assumptions behind the SOFI 2030 scenarios | IMF World Economic Outlook, April 202647 | access to the publication was denied; the assumptions are quoted only as reported in SOFI1 |
| Capability rungs beyond stocks and humanitarian response | ministries, regulators, producers | not reviewed |
A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources
Issued jointly by FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (21 July 2026) from national surveys, price data and models. Annual. Role: binds FOO-001, FOO-002, FOO-003 and HLT-004.
EVD-GS03-001
SOFI 20261
Issued by FAO (release of 4 September 2026) from international export quotations. Monthly. Role: binds FIN-007. Revised monthly; earlier months are restated.
EVD-GS03-002
FAO Food Price Index48
| Dimension | EVD-GS03-001 | EVD-GS03-002 |
|---|---|---|
| Completeness | all countries; modelled where surveys are missing | international export prices only; no retail prices |
| Timeliness | about 7 months after the year | about 1 month after the month |
| Revision | estimates revised with each edition | previous months revised each release |
| Method transparency | methods and annexes published | basket and weights described by the issuer |
| External validation | agency review and national consultation | compared with national quotations by the issuer |
Evidence cards to follow in 2027
A.6Publication acceptance record
Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.
| Group | Area | Items | Pass | N/A | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | Identity and scope | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| D2 | Source and data | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 |
| D3 | Analysis and models | 12 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| D4 | Findings and claims | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
| D5 | Figures, tables, maps | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| D6 | Editorial and citations | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 |
| D7 | Review and approval | 13 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| D8 | Artefact and design | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 |
| D9 | Registry and release | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
Publication gate
- Conditions met
- 14 of 23 at evidence close
- Blocking problems
- none recorded
- Open conditions
- reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer
Not applicable at baseline
- Model runs
- first runs in Q1 2027
- Maps
- plates in Q2 2027
- Waivers
- none
A.7Status words
| Status | What it means |
|---|---|
| Observed | Measured directly and published by the source. |
| Reported | Published statistics of an official or institutional source. |
| Declared | Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured. |
| Estimated | A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A. |
| Modelled | Produced by a stated model from cited inputs. |
| Inferred | Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured. |
| Forecast | A projection by the cited source. |
| Simulated | A simulation result under stated assumptions. |
| Scenario | A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction. |
| Expert input | Expert judgement, recorded with its basis. |
| Candidate | Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence. |
| Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject. | |
A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected
Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.
| Step | What happens | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 01 Evidence arrives from the pillars | Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s. | |
| 02 The cut is sealed | On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on. | |
| 03 The edition is assembled | The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide. | |
| 04 The keys turn | At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward. | |
| 05 The gate opens | A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit. | |
| 06 Signed and deposited | The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI. | |
| 07 Published on its desk’s site | Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part. | |
| 08 Corrections go to Standards | Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut. |
A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).
Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.
A.9Glossary and abbreviations
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Baseline Edition | the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series |
| WEFH+B | food, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core |
| Coupling | a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another |
| Protection gap | the share of losses not covered by insurance |
| Capability ladder | LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED |
| EQL | evidence-quality level, 1–5 |
| Evidence cut | a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions |
| NNC · NLC · NWG | National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups |
| Abbreviation | Expansion |
|---|---|
| CoHD | cost of a healthy diet |
| FAO | Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations |
| FFPI | FAO Food Price Index |
| GNAFC | Global Network Against Food Crises |
| GRFC | Global Report on Food Crises |
| HPAI | high pathogenicity avian influenza |
| IPC | Integrated Food Security Phase Classification |
| Mt | million tonnes |
| PoU | prevalence of undernourishment |
| PPP | purchasing power parity |
| SOFI | The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World |
| WOAH | World Organisation for Animal Health |
A.10Technical annex
| Item | Annex | Contents | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| A.1 | Indicator definitions | the global indicator set, with units and sources | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.2 | Coupling strengths | the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.3 | Scenario specification | SCN-GS03-HRV-01 assumptions and signposts | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.4 | Capability placements | rung evidence for fifteen functions | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.5 | Model diagnostics | first runs and validation | 2027 |
| A.6 | Sensitivity analyses | influence of coupling strengths | 2027 |
| A.7 | Trade-route notes | cards for the major crop regions and shared trade routes | WITH REGIONAL EDITIONS |
| A.8 | Review statements | pass-by-pass review record | AT RELEASE |
A.1 · indicator definition: prevalence of undernourishment
- Construct
- share and number of people whose habitual food consumption is insufficient to provide the dietary energy for an active, healthy life
- Unit
- share and number of people
- Method
- FAO model combining national food supply, distribution and requirements
- Source
- SOFI 20261
- Uncertainty
- world range 608 to 696 million people in 2025
- Known limits
- measures energy intake only; does not capture diet quality, access or short shocks
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026, full report (fertiliser and food price projections); only the landing page [7] was opened. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14FAO (ed.), Global Agrifood Implications of the 2026 Conflict in the Middle East: Impacts on energy and fertiliser trade, and food security, information note of 15 March 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8WMO (ed.), El Niño/La Niña Update, August 2026 (factsheet). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP and WRAP (eds.), Food Waste Index Report 2024; the headline of 1.05 billion tonnes wasted in 2022 was taken from search-result summaries and is not used as a figure in any finding. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 20IPCC (ed.), Climate Change and Land: Special Report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems, Summary for Policymakers (updated January 2020). IPCC, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD and FAO (eds.), OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026 to 2035 (June 2026); only the catalogue record was seen and no figure is used. OECD Publishing, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO, WFP and GNAFC (eds.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026 (full report, 24 April 2026); the report file could not be retrieved, and its totals are taken from the opened summary [4] and from SOFI [1]. Global Network Against Food Crises, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 4European Commission Joint Research Centre (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026, summary page on Knowledge for Policy (the report was released 24 April 2026 by FAO, WFP and the Global Network Against Food Crises; the summary page was opened, the report was not). European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 1FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (published 21 July 2026; full report opened). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPC (ed.), Integrated Food Security Phase Classification analyses for the Gaza Strip, the Sudan and Somalia; the site blocked automated access, and the findings are read from the opened GRFC summary and Hunger Hotspots page [4] [18]. IPC Global Support Unit, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 18POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO and WFP (eds.), Hunger Hotspots 2026: FAO-WFP early warnings on acute food insecurity, June to November 2026 outlook (highlights page opened; report not opened). Global Network Against Food Crises, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: IFPRI (ed.), Food and Fertilizer Export Restrictions Tracker; the page returned no content. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: AMIS (ed.), Market Monitor, October 2026; the page blocked access. Agricultural Market Information System, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPBES (ed.), The assessment report on pollinators, pollination and food production, 2016, cited from memory. IPBES Secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMF (ed.), World Economic Outlook, April 2026; access was denied, and its growth assumptions are cited only as reported in SOFI [1]. International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 48FAO (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release of 4 September 2026 (August 2026 values; newsroom release opened). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 13POST-CLOSE, context only: US Department of Agriculture (ed.), World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WASDE-676, 9 October 2026. USDA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back