Reports · GCRI · Country profile
Australia 2026
Australia
Australia enters 2027 as a high-income, highly urbanised country that is also a large net energy exporter, an arid-continent water system and one of the most fire-exposed populations in the world. Its resident population reached 27.92 million at 31 March 2026, growing 1.4% in a year, about three quarters of it through net overseas migration.
- Bevindinge
- 12
- each with its status and source
- Sectors with findings
- 5 of 6
- Infrastructure not assessed
- Risk objects
- 4
- order carries no rank
- Bronne
- 53
- Evidence close 30 September 2026
01 · Readings
Australia in six readings.
Six readings that frame the Australia baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
02 · Sectors
Six sectors, one hexagon.
Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.
- WATWater2 findings
11,760 GL Water consumed by agriculture, forestry and fishing, 2023–24. □Reported
Arid continent with high year-to-year variation; 17,223 GL consumed in 2023–24, about 68% by agriculture.
- ENEEnergie2 findings
33% Wind and solar share of electricity, 2025. □Reported
Net energy exporter; wind and solar 33%, coal 43% of electricity in 2025.
- INFInfrastruktuurnot assessed
Long distances and dense capital-city networks; lifeline condition not bound.
- FOOVoedsel1 finding
122.5 index Food production index (2014–16 = 100), 2024. □Reported
Food production index 122.5 in 2024; agricultural land 369 million hectares in 2021–22.
- HLTGesondheid2 findings
417 people Smoke-related deaths estimated for the 2019–20 fires, 2020. □Reported
Life expectancy 81.1 and 85.1 years; 18.1% aged 65 or over.
- BIOBiodiversiteit1 finding
22.0% Land in protected areas, 2024. □Reported
Protected: 22.0% of land and 45.4% of territorial waters. Condition not bound.
Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 3, Systemic 1.
03 · Hazard exposure
The hazards this edition reads.
The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.
RSK-AUS-CLI-001
Bushfire and smoke season in the south-east
□ReportedEQL 4
- Driver
- hot, dry, windy conditions and fuel load
- Exposure
- peri-urban communities and downwind cities
- Vulnerability
- older residents; remote roads; smoke-sensitive health conditions
- Capacity
- fire services and mutual aid; documented in the Royal Commission [22]
- Cascade
- CLI → HLT, WAT, INF, FIN
- Horizon
- annual
No domain reading
RSK-AUS-WAT-002
Dry-year water stress across state borders
▲InferredEQL 3
- Driver
- low rainfall and high agricultural demand
- Exposure
- irrigated agriculture and regional towns
- Vulnerability
- dependence on shared river stelsels
- Capacity
- Basin Plan arrangements [24]
- Cascade
- WAT → FOO, BIO
- Horizon
- 1–5 years
No domain reading
RSK-AUS-HLT-003
Heat and smoke overload of health services
▲InferredEQL 3
- Driver
- heat waves and smoke episodes
- Exposure
- older adults; outdoor workers
- Vulnerability
- limited cooling; workforce shortages not bound
- Capacity
- health system capacity; not bound [34]
- Cascade
- CLI → HLT → ENE peak
- Horizon
- seasonal
RSK-AUS-ENE-004
Fuel or gas supply disruption during the transition
◎Expert inputEQL 2
- Driver
- shipping disruption, price spike or plant retirement
- Exposure
- power, freight, farming and households
- Vulnerability
- stock depth not bound
- Capacity
- market operator planning [31]
- Cascade
- TRD → ENE → FOO, FIN
- Horizon
- 1–5 years
No domain reading
Scenario · SCN-AUS-FIR-01
Hot, dry summer in the populated south-east
Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.
3 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them
- 1CLI → INFfire cuts roads and power lines near cities
- 2CLI → HLTsmoke and heat raise hospital stays and deaths
- 3ENE → HLTpeak cooling demand coincides with network damage
- 4CLI → WATash and runoff degrade supply quality
- 5HLT → FINlosses fall on households, insurers and budgets
- 6FIN → recoveryrebuilding slows where cover is thin
04 · Couplings
How the sectors carry risk into each other.
The Australia matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core stelsels. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.
| From | WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | · | Strong | Strong | Moderate | Strong |
| ENE | Moderate | · | Strong | Strong | Moderate |
| FOO | Moderate | Weak | · | Strong | Strong |
| HLT | Weak | Weak | Moderate | · | Weak |
| BIO | Strong | Moderate | Strong | Moderate | · |
Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.
Cascade paths, in the edition’s order
- CLI → HLTfire smoke reaches large cities and loads health services□Reported
- CLI → WAT → FOOdry years cut storage and allocation, and farm output follows▲Inferred
- ENE → HLTa hot spell raises power demand while cooling is a health need▲Inferred
- TRD → ENE → FOOa fuel supply disruption reaches farm and freight operations▲Inferred
- CLI → INF → FINfire or flood damages lifelines and the loss falls on insurers and budgets▲Inferred
05 · Findings
Every finding of Australia.
Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.
All 12 findings
| ID | Edition | Sector or system | Status | Statement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLI-001 | Australia | CLI Climate forcing | □ Reported | Greenhouse-gas emissions excluding land use were 591.5 Mt CO₂e in 2024, against 605.2 Mt in 2019 and 579.5 Mt in 2020. |
| CLI-002 | Australia | CLI Climate forcing | □ Reported | The legislated targets are 43% below 2005 by 2030 and net zero by 2050; a 2035 target of 62 to 70% below 2005 was announced in September 2025. |
| ENE-003 | Australia | ENE Energie | □ Reported | Wind and solar supplied 33% of electricity in 2025; fossil fuels supplied 61% and coal 43%. |
| ENE-004 | Australia | ENE Energie | □ Reported | Australia is a net energy exporter: net exports equalled about 211% of its own energy use in 2024. |
| CLI-005 | Australia | CLI Climate forcing | □ Reported | The 2019–20 fire season burnt about 24 million hectares, killed 33 people directly and destroyed more than 3,000 buildings. |
| HLT-006 | Australia | HLT Gesondheid | □ Reported | Smoke from the 2019–20 fires was linked to an estimated 417 deaths in a peer-reviewed study. |
| WAT-007 | Australia | WAT Water | □ Reported | National water consumption was 17,223 GL in 2023–24, up 12.9%; agriculture, forestry and fishing used 11,760 GL, about 68%. |
| WAT-008 | Australia | WAT Water | □ Reported | Major dam storages fell 8.1% to 57,931 GL at 30 June 2024, and area-average rainfall fell 12.3% to 535 mm while staying above the long-term average. |
| FOO-009 | Australia | FOO Voedsel | □ Reported | The food production index was 122.5 in 2024 against 109.4 in 2023; agricultural land was 369 million hectares in 2021–22. |
| HLT-010 | Australia | HLT Gesondheid | □ Reported | Life expectancy was 81.1 years for males and 85.1 for females in 2022–24; 18.1% of the population was aged 65 or over in 2025. |
| BIO-011 | Australia | BIO Biodiversiteit | □ Reported | Protected areas covered 22.0% of land and 45.4% of territorial waters in 2024. |
| SYS-012 | Australia | SYS Systemic | ◎ Expert input | The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a hot, dry summer in which fire, smoke, heat and grid stress coincide in the populated south-east. |
06 · Editions and calendar
The desks’ editions for Australia.
| Desk | Edition | State | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | Australia 2026 | Drafted, in stewardship review | NR-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Public Deliberation: Australia 2026 | In preparation | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | Capital Readiness: Australia 2026 | In preparation | |
| Standards Progress | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Measurement: Australia 2026 | In preparation |
Calendar · 2026 Baseline
- 01Call opensset by the editor
- 02Contribution closeset by the editor
- 03Evidence close30 September 2026
- 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
- 05Collection compilationset by the editor
- 06Collection releaseset by the editor
- 07Regstellingsafter release, as needed
Evidence cut NQ-AUS-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.
07 · Take part
Read it, improve it, cite it.
- ReadThe edition, chapter by chapter, with every source.
- Dra bySend evidence, a source or a method before the next cut.
- ReviewJoin the stewardship review of this edition.
- CiteAPA, Chicago, BibTeX, RIS and the house style, as a draft.
- PDFThe signed PDF is issued at release; print the complete edition today.
Corrections log
| Version | Date | State | Change | Notice |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NR-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | DRAFT | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | none |
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
| Gap | Shown here as | Proposed source |
|---|---|---|
| Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares) | the edition’s own risk objects, without values | the Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/aus/ |
| The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objects | an editorial reading of the hazard words | the NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry |
| Infrastructure in the coupling matrix | Infrastructure marked not assessed | an Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut |
Send evidence or a correction on Australia.
Verslae is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) Stelsels Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.
- E-posGateway GW-GCRIStuur dit vanaf hierdie bladsyGetuienis, 'n regstelling, 'n geval, 'n metode, 'n beoordeling, 'n vertaling of profielinset. Dit kom aan gemerk met hierdie bladsy, sodat die redakteur wat dit besit dit ontvang.
- ZenodoOop deponeringDeponeer dit en dien dit in by die gemeenskapPubliseer u eie rekord op Zenodo met u ORCID iD, en dien dit dan daar in by die Reports-gemeenskap. Kurators beoordeel dit; die DOI bly joune.
- VerslaeGCRISee which desk takes what you haveThe routing table opens the contribution page: what you have, the desk that takes it, how each contribution is reviewed and credited, and the licence.
Stuur nooit persoonlike data, sensitiewe infrastruktuurbesonderhede of enigiets wat u geen reg het om te deel nie. 'n Bydrae word voor gebruik beoordeel; die stuur daarvan verleen geen outeurskap of redaksionele regte nie, en borgskap koop nooit 'n bevinding nie.
CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.