Reports · GCRI · Country profile
Australia 2026
استرالیا
Australia enters 2027 as a high-income, highly urbanised country that is also a large net energy exporter, an arid-continent water system and one of the most fire-exposed populations in the world. Its resident population reached 27.92 million at 31 March 2026, growing 1.4% in a year, about three quarters of it through net overseas migration.
- یافته‌ها
- 12
- each with its status and source
- Sectors with findings
- 5 of 6
- Infrastructure not assessed
- Risk objects
- 4
- order carries no rank
- منابع
- 53
- Evidence close 30 September 2026
01 · Readings
Australia in six readings.
Six readings that frame the Australia baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
02 · Sectors
Six sectors, one hexagon.
Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.
- WATآب2 findings
11,760 GL Water consumed by agriculture, forestry and fishing, 2023–24. □گزارش‌شده
Arid continent with high year-to-year variation; 17,223 GL consumed in 2023–24, about 68% by agriculture.
- ENEانرژی2 findings
33% Wind and solar share of electricity, 2025. □گزارش‌شده
Net energy exporter; wind and solar 33%, coal 43% of electricity in 2025.
- INFزیرساختnot assessed
Long distances and dense capital-city networks; lifeline condition not bound.
- FOOغذا1 finding
122.5 index Food production index (2014–16 = 100), 2024. □گزارش‌شده
Food production index 122.5 in 2024; agricultural land 369 million hectares in 2021–22.
- HLTسلامت2 findings
417 people Smoke-related deaths estimated for the 2019–20 fires, 2020. □گزارش‌شده
Life expectancy 81.1 and 85.1 years; 18.1% aged 65 or over.
- BIOتنوع زیستی1 finding
22.0% Land in protected areas, 2024. □گزارش‌شده
Protected: 22.0% of land and 45.4% of territorial waters. Condition not bound.
Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 3, Systemic 1.
03 · Hazard exposure
The hazards this edition reads.
The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.
RSK-AUS-CLI-001
Bushfire and smoke season in the south-east
□گزارش‌شدهEQL 4
- محرک
- hot, dry, windy conditions and fuel load
- مواجهه
- peri-urban communities and downwind cities
- آسیب‌پذیری
- older residents; remote roads; smoke-sensitive health conditions
- ظرفیت
- fire services and mutual aid; documented in the Royal Commission [22]
- آبشار
- CLI → HLT, WAT, INF, FIN
- Horizon
- annual
No domain reading
RSK-AUS-WAT-002
Dry-year water stress across state borders
▲InferredEQL 3
- محرک
- low rainfall and high agricultural demand
- مواجهه
- irrigated agriculture and regional towns
- آسیب‌پذیری
- dependence on shared river سامانه‌ها
- ظرفیت
- Basin Plan arrangements [24]
- آبشار
- WAT → FOO, BIO
- Horizon
- 1–5 years
No domain reading
RSK-AUS-HLT-003
Heat and smoke overload of health services
▲InferredEQL 3
- محرک
- heat waves and smoke episodes
- مواجهه
- older adults; outdoor workers
- آسیب‌پذیری
- limited cooling; workforce shortages not bound
- ظرفیت
- health system capacity; not bound [34]
- آبشار
- CLI → HLT → ENE peak
- Horizon
- seasonal
RSK-AUS-ENE-004
Fuel or gas supply disruption during the transition
◎Expert inputEQL 2
- محرک
- shipping disruption, price spike or plant retirement
- مواجهه
- power, freight, farming and households
- آسیب‌پذیری
- stock depth not bound
- ظرفیت
- market operator planning [31]
- آبشار
- TRD → ENE → FOO, FIN
- Horizon
- 1–5 years
No domain reading
Scenario · SCN-AUS-FIR-01
Hot, dry summer in the populated south-east
Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.
3 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them
- 1CLI → INFfire cuts roads and power lines near cities
- 2CLI → HLTsmoke and heat raise hospital stays and deaths
- 3ENE → HLTpeak cooling demand coincides with network damage
- 4CLI → WATash and runoff degrade supply quality
- 5HLT → FINlosses fall on households, insurers and budgets
- 6FIN → recoveryrebuilding slows where cover is thin
04 · Couplings
How the sectors carry risk into each other.
The Australia matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core سامانه‌ها. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.
| از | WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | · | Strong | Strong | متوسط | Strong |
| ENE | متوسط | · | Strong | Strong | متوسط |
| FOO | متوسط | Weak | · | Strong | Strong |
| HLT | Weak | Weak | متوسط | · | Weak |
| BIO | Strong | متوسط | Strong | متوسط | · |
Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.
Cascade paths, in the edition’s order
- CLI → HLTfire smoke reaches large cities and loads health services□گزارش‌شده
- CLI → WAT → FOOdry years cut storage and allocation, and farm output follows▲Inferred
- ENE → HLTa hot spell raises power demand while cooling is a health need▲Inferred
- TRD → ENE → FOOa fuel supply disruption reaches farm and freight operations▲Inferred
- CLI → INF → FINfire or flood damages lifelines and the loss falls on insurers and budgets▲Inferred
05 · Findings
Every finding of Australia.
Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.
All 12 findings
| ID | ویراست | Sector or system | وضعیت | Statement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLI-001 | استرالیا | CLI Climate forcing | □ گزارش‌شده | Greenhouse-gas emissions excluding land use were 591.5 Mt CO₂e in 2024, against 605.2 Mt in 2019 and 579.5 Mt in 2020. |
| CLI-002 | استرالیا | CLI Climate forcing | □ گزارش‌شده | The legislated targets are 43% below 2005 by 2030 and net zero by 2050; a 2035 target of 62 to 70% below 2005 was announced in September 2025. |
| ENE-003 | استرالیا | ENE انرژی | □ گزارش‌شده | Wind and solar supplied 33% of electricity in 2025; fossil fuels supplied 61% and coal 43%. |
| ENE-004 | استرالیا | ENE انرژی | □ گزارش‌شده | Australia is a net energy exporter: net exports equalled about 211% of its own energy use in 2024. |
| CLI-005 | استرالیا | CLI Climate forcing | □ گزارش‌شده | The 2019–20 fire season burnt about 24 million hectares, killed 33 people directly and destroyed more than 3,000 buildings. |
| HLT-006 | استرالیا | HLT سلامت | □ گزارش‌شده | Smoke from the 2019–20 fires was linked to an estimated 417 deaths in a peer-reviewed study. |
| WAT-007 | استرالیا | WAT آب | □ گزارش‌شده | National water consumption was 17,223 GL in 2023–24, up 12.9%; agriculture, forestry and fishing used 11,760 GL, about 68%. |
| WAT-008 | استرالیا | WAT آب | □ گزارش‌شده | Major dam storages fell 8.1% to 57,931 GL at 30 June 2024, and area-average rainfall fell 12.3% to 535 mm while staying above the long-term average. |
| FOO-009 | استرالیا | FOO غذا | □ گزارش‌شده | The food production index was 122.5 in 2024 against 109.4 in 2023; agricultural land was 369 million hectares in 2021–22. |
| HLT-010 | استرالیا | HLT سلامت | □ گزارش‌شده | Life expectancy was 81.1 years for males and 85.1 for females in 2022–24; 18.1% of the population was aged 65 or over in 2025. |
| BIO-011 | استرالیا | BIO تنوع زیستی | □ گزارش‌شده | Protected areas covered 22.0% of land and 45.4% of territorial waters in 2024. |
| SYS-012 | استرالیا | SYS Systemic | ◎ Expert input | The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a hot, dry summer in which fire, smoke, heat and grid stress coincide in the populated south-east. |
06 · Editions and calendar
The desks’ editions for Australia.
| Desk | ویراست | وضعیت | شناسه |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | Australia 2026 | Drafted, in stewardship review | NR-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Public Deliberation: Australia 2026 | در دست آماده‌سازی | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | Capital Readiness: Australia 2026 | در دست آماده‌سازی | |
| Standards Progress | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Measurement: Australia 2026 | در دست آماده‌سازی |
Calendar · 2026 Baseline
- 01Call opensset by the editor
- 02Contribution closeset by the editor
- 03بستن شواهد30 September 2026
- 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
- 05Collection compilationset by the editor
- 06Collection releaseset by the editor
- 07اصلاحیه‌هاafter release, as needed
Evidence cut NQ-AUS-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.
07 · Take part
Read it, improve it, cite it.
- بخوانیدThe edition, chapter by chapter, with every source.
- مشارکتSend evidence, a source or a method before the next cut.
- داوریJoin the stewardship review of this edition.
- CiteAPA, Chicago, BibTeX, RIS and the house style, as a draft.
- PDFThe signed PDF is issued at release; print the complete edition today.
سیاههٔ اصلاحات
| نسخه | Date | وضعیت | تغییر | Notice |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NR-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | DRAFT | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | هیچ |
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
| شکاف | Shown here as | Proposed source |
|---|---|---|
| Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares) | the edition’s own risk objects, without values | the Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/aus/ |
| The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objects | an editorial reading of the hazard words | the NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry |
| Infrastructure in the coupling matrix | Infrastructure marked not assessed | an Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut |
Send evidence or a correction on Australia.
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