Reports · GCRI · Country profile
Australia 2026
澳大利亚
Australia enters 2027 as a high-income, highly urbanised country that is also a large net energy exporter, an arid-continent water system and one of the most fire-exposed populations in the world. Its resident population reached 27.92 million at 31 March 2026, growing 1.4% in a year, about three quarters of it through net overseas migration.
- 发现
- 12
- each with its status and source
- Sectors with findings
- 5 of 6
- Infrastructure not assessed
- Risk objects
- 4
- order carries no rank
- 来源
- 53
- Evidence close 30 September 2026
01 · Readings
Australia in six readings.
Six readings that frame the Australia baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
02 · Sectors
Six sectors, one hexagon.
Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.
- WAT水2 findings
11,760 GL Water consumed by agriculture, forestry and fishing, 2023–24. □报告值
Arid continent with high year-to-year variation; 17,223 GL consumed in 2023–24, about 68% by agriculture.
- ENE能源2 findings
33% Wind and solar share of electricity, 2025. □报告值
Net energy exporter; wind and solar 33%, coal 43% of electricity in 2025.
- INF基础设施not assessed
Long distances and dense capital-city networks; lifeline condition not bound.
- FOO食品1 finding
122.5 index Food production index (2014–16 = 100), 2024. □报告值
Food production index 122.5 in 2024; agricultural land 369 million hectares in 2021–22.
- HLT卫生2 findings
417 people Smoke-related deaths estimated for the 2019–20 fires, 2020. □报告值
Life expectancy 81.1 and 85.1 years; 18.1% aged 65 or over.
- BIO生物多样性1 finding
22.0% Land in protected areas, 2024. □报告值
Protected: 22.0% of land and 45.4% of territorial waters. Condition not bound.
Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 3, Systemic 1.
03 · Hazard exposure
The hazards this edition reads.
The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.
RSK-AUS-CLI-001
Bushfire and smoke season in the south-east
□报告值EQL 4
- 驱动因素
- hot, dry, windy conditions and fuel load
- 风险暴露
- peri-urban communities and downwind cities
- 脆弱性
- older residents; remote roads; smoke-sensitive health conditions
- 能力
- fire services and mutual aid; documented in the Royal Commission [22]
- 级联
- CLI → HLT, WAT, INF, FIN
- 地平线
- 年度
No domain reading
RSK-AUS-WAT-002
Dry-year water stress across state borders
▲InferredEQL 3
- 驱动因素
- low rainfall and high agricultural demand
- 风险暴露
- irrigated agriculture and regional towns
- 脆弱性
- dependence on shared river 系统
- 能力
- Basin Plan arrangements [24]
- 级联
- WAT → FOO, BIO
- 地平线
- 1–5 years
No domain reading
RSK-AUS-HLT-003
Heat and smoke overload of health services
▲InferredEQL 3
- 驱动因素
- heat waves and smoke episodes
- 风险暴露
- older adults; outdoor workers
- 脆弱性
- limited cooling; workforce shortages not bound
- 能力
- health system capacity; not bound [34]
- 级联
- CLI → HLT → ENE peak
- 地平线
- seasonal
RSK-AUS-ENE-004
Fuel or gas supply disruption during the transition
◎Expert inputEQL 2
- 驱动因素
- shipping disruption, price spike or plant retirement
- 风险暴露
- power, freight, farming and households
- 脆弱性
- stock depth not bound
- 能力
- market operator planning [31]
- 级联
- TRD → ENE → FOO, FIN
- 地平线
- 1–5 years
No domain reading
Scenario · SCN-AUS-FIR-01
Hot, dry summer in the populated south-east
Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.
3 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them
- 1CLI → INFfire cuts roads and power lines near cities
- 2CLI → HLTsmoke and heat raise hospital stays and deaths
- 3ENE → HLTpeak cooling demand coincides with network damage
- 4CLI → WATash and runoff degrade supply quality
- 5HLT → FINlosses fall on households, insurers and budgets
- 6FIN → recoveryrebuilding slows where cover is thin
04 · Couplings
How the sectors carry risk into each other.
The Australia matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core 系统. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.
| 从 | WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | · | Strong | Strong | 中等 | Strong |
| ENE | 中等 | · | Strong | Strong | 中等 |
| FOO | 中等 | Weak | · | Strong | Strong |
| HLT | Weak | Weak | 中等 | · | Weak |
| BIO | Strong | 中等 | Strong | 中等 | · |
Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.
Cascade paths, in the edition’s order
- CLI → HLTfire smoke reaches large cities and loads health services□报告值
- CLI → WAT → FOOdry years cut storage and allocation, and farm output follows▲Inferred
- ENE → HLTa hot spell raises power demand while cooling is a health need▲Inferred
- TRD → ENE → FOOa fuel supply disruption reaches farm and freight operations▲Inferred
- CLI → INF → FINfire or flood damages lifelines and the loss falls on insurers and budgets▲Inferred
05 · Findings
Every finding of Australia.
Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.
All 12 findings
| ID | 版本 | Sector or system | 状态 | Statement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLI-001 | 澳大利亚 | CLI Climate forcing | □ 报告值 | Greenhouse-gas emissions excluding land use were 591.5 Mt CO₂e in 2024, against 605.2 Mt in 2019 and 579.5 Mt in 2020. |
| CLI-002 | 澳大利亚 | CLI Climate forcing | □ 报告值 | The legislated targets are 43% below 2005 by 2030 and net zero by 2050; a 2035 target of 62 to 70% below 2005 was announced in September 2025. |
| ENE-003 | 澳大利亚 | ENE 能源 | □ 报告值 | Wind and solar supplied 33% of electricity in 2025; fossil fuels supplied 61% and coal 43%. |
| ENE-004 | 澳大利亚 | ENE 能源 | □ 报告值 | Australia is a net energy exporter: net exports equalled about 211% of its own energy use in 2024. |
| CLI-005 | 澳大利亚 | CLI Climate forcing | □ 报告值 | The 2019–20 fire season burnt about 24 million hectares, killed 33 people directly and destroyed more than 3,000 buildings. |
| HLT-006 | 澳大利亚 | HLT 卫生 | □ 报告值 | Smoke from the 2019–20 fires was linked to an estimated 417 deaths in a peer-reviewed study. |
| WAT-007 | 澳大利亚 | WAT 水 | □ 报告值 | National water consumption was 17,223 GL in 2023–24, up 12.9%; agriculture, forestry and fishing used 11,760 GL, about 68%. |
| WAT-008 | 澳大利亚 | WAT 水 | □ 报告值 | Major dam storages fell 8.1% to 57,931 GL at 30 June 2024, and area-average rainfall fell 12.3% to 535 mm while staying above the long-term average. |
| FOO-009 | 澳大利亚 | FOO 食品 | □ 报告值 | The food production index was 122.5 in 2024 against 109.4 in 2023; agricultural land was 369 million hectares in 2021–22. |
| HLT-010 | 澳大利亚 | HLT 卫生 | □ 报告值 | Life expectancy was 81.1 years for males and 85.1 for females in 2022–24; 18.1% of the population was aged 65 or over in 2025. |
| BIO-011 | 澳大利亚 | BIO 生物多样性 | □ 报告值 | Protected areas covered 22.0% of land and 45.4% of territorial waters in 2024. |
| SYS-012 | 澳大利亚 | SYS 系统性 | ◎ Expert input | The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a hot, dry summer in which fire, smoke, heat and grid stress coincide in the populated south-east. |
06 · Editions and calendar
The desks’ editions for Australia.
| 办事处 | 版本 | 状态 | 标识符 |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | Australia 2026 | Drafted, in stewardship review | NR-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Public Deliberation: Australia 2026 | 筹备中 | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | Capital Readiness: Australia 2026 | 筹备中 | |
| Standards Progress | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Measurement: Australia 2026 | 筹备中 |
Calendar · 2026 Baseline
- 01Call opensset by the editor
- 02Contribution closeset by the editor
- 03证据截止30 September 2026
- 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
- 05Collection compilationset by the editor
- 06Collection releaseset by the editor
- 07更正after release, as needed
Evidence cut NQ-AUS-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.
07 · Take part
Read it, improve it, cite it.
- 阅读The edition, chapter by chapter, with every source.
- 贡献Send evidence, a source or a method before the next cut.
- 审核Join the stewardship review of this edition.
- CiteAPA, Chicago, BibTeX, RIS and the house style, as a draft.
- PDFThe signed PDF is issued at release; print the complete edition today.
更正记录
| 版本 | 日期 | 状态 | 变化 | 通知 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NR-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | DRAFT | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | 无 |
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
| 差距 | Shown here as | Proposed source |
|---|---|---|
| Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares) | the edition’s own risk objects, without values | the Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/aus/ |
| The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objects | an editorial reading of the hazard words | the NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry |
| Infrastructure in the coupling matrix | Infrastructure marked not assessed | an Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut |
Send evidence or a correction on Australia.
报告 is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) 系统 证据编辑部。您对此主题的了解可以成为下一期的证据、案例或更正，署您的名，若为您本人的作品则以 CC BY 4.0 发布。若发送到错误的编辑部，会被转交，不会被拒绝。
- 电子邮件网关 GW-GCRI从本页发送证据、更正、案例、方法、审查、翻译或概况投稿。它会带上本页标签送达，由负责的编辑接收。
- Zenodo开放存缴存缴并提交到社区用您的 ORCID iD 在 Zenodo 上发布您自己的记录，然后提交到那里的 Reports 社区。由策展人审核；DOI 仍归您所有。
- 报告GCRI查看哪个办事处受理您的事项路由表通向投稿页面：您拥有什么、由哪个编辑部受理、每项投稿如何审查和署名，以及许可。
切勿发送个人数据、敏感基础设施细节或您无权分享的任何内容。贡献在使用前会经过审查；发送贡献不赋予署名权或编辑权，赞助也绝不能换取研究结论。
CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.