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Australia 2026

Австралия

Australia enters 2027 as a high-income, highly urbanised country that is also a large net energy exporter, an arid-continent water system and one of the most fire-exposed populations in the world. Its resident population reached 27.92 million at 31 March 2026, growing 1.4% in a year, about three quarters of it through net overseas migration.

Read the editionПодверженность опасностям
Выводы
12
each with its status and source
Sectors with findings
5 of 6
Infrastructure not assessed
Risk objects
4
order carries no rank
Источники
53
Evidence close 30 September 2026

01 · Readings

Australia in six readings.

Six readings that frame the Australia baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  • 27.92millionpopulation, 31 March 2026 [1]
  • 18.1%aged 65 or over, 2025 [10]
  • 591.5Mt CO₂eemissions excluding land use, 2024 [8]
  • 33%wind and solar share of electricity, 2025 [16]
  • ≈211%net energy exports as a share of energy use, 2024 [11]
  • 8states and territoriessix states and two mainland territories

02 · Sectors

Six sectors, one hexagon.

Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.

  1. WATВода2 findings

    11,760 GL Water consumed by agriculture, forestry and fishing, 2023–24. Сообщённые данные

    Arid continent with high year-to-year variation; 17,223 GL consumed in 2023–24, about 68% by agriculture.

  2. ENEЭнергетика2 findings

    33% Wind and solar share of electricity, 2025. Сообщённые данные

    Net energy exporter; wind and solar 33%, coal 43% of electricity in 2025.

  3. INFИнфраструктураnot assessed

    Long distances and dense capital-city networks; lifeline condition not bound.

  4. FOOПродовольствие1 finding

    122.5 index Food production index (2014–16 = 100), 2024. Сообщённые данные

    Food production index 122.5 in 2024; agricultural land 369 million hectares in 2021–22.

  5. HLTЗдравоохранение2 findings

    417 people Smoke-related deaths estimated for the 2019–20 fires, 2020. Сообщённые данные

    Life expectancy 81.1 and 85.1 years; 18.1% aged 65 or over.

  6. BIOБиоразнообразие1 finding

    22.0% Land in protected areas, 2024. Сообщённые данные

    Protected: 22.0% of land and 45.4% of territorial waters. Condition not bound.

Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 3, Systemic 1.

03 · Hazard exposure

The hazards this edition reads.

The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.

  • RSK-AUS-CLI-001

    Bushfire and smoke season in the south-east

    Сообщённые данныеEQL 4

    Движущая сила
    hot, dry, windy conditions and fuel load
    Подверженность
    peri-urban communities and downwind cities
    Уязвимость
    older residents; remote roads; smoke-sensitive health conditions
    Мощность
    fire services and mutual aid; documented in the Royal Commission [22]
    Каскад
    CLI → HLT, WAT, INF, FIN
    Горизонт
    ежегодно

    No domain reading

  • RSK-AUS-WAT-002

    Dry-year water stress across state borders

    InferredEQL 3

    Движущая сила
    low rainfall and high agricultural demand
    Подверженность
    irrigated agriculture and regional towns
    Уязвимость
    dependence on shared river системы
    Мощность
    Basin Plan arrangements [24]
    Каскад
    WAT → FOO, BIO
    Горизонт
    1–5 years

    No domain reading

  • RSK-AUS-HLT-003

    Heat and smoke overload of health services

    InferredEQL 3

    Движущая сила
    heat waves and smoke episodes
    Подверженность
    older adults; outdoor workers
    Уязвимость
    limited cooling; workforce shortages not bound
    Мощность
    health system capacity; not bound [34]
    Каскад
    CLI → HLT → ENE peak
    Горизонт
    seasonal

    Атмосфера и погода

  • RSK-AUS-ENE-004

    Fuel or gas supply disruption during the transition

    Expert inputEQL 2

    Движущая сила
    shipping disruption, price spike or plant retirement
    Подверженность
    power, freight, farming and households
    Уязвимость
    stock depth not bound
    Мощность
    market operator planning [31]
    Каскад
    TRD → ENE → FOO, FIN
    Горизонт
    1–5 years

    No domain reading

Scenario · SCN-AUS-FIR-01

Hot, dry summer in the populated south-east

Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.

3 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them

  1. 1CLI → INFfire cuts roads and power lines near cities
  2. 2CLI → HLTsmoke and heat raise hospital stays and deaths
  3. 3ENE → HLTpeak cooling demand coincides with network damage
  4. 4CLI → WATash and runoff degrade supply quality
  5. 5HLT → FINlosses fall on households, insurers and budgets
  6. 6FIN → recoveryrebuilding slows where cover is thin

04 · Couplings

How the sectors carry risk into each other.

The Australia matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core системы. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Coupling matrix, from row to column
ОтWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT·StrongStrongУмеренныеStrong
ENEУмеренные·StrongStrongУмеренные
FOOУмеренныеWeak·StrongStrong
HLTWeakWeakУмеренные·Weak
BIOStrongУмеренныеStrongУмеренные·

Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.

Cascade paths, in the edition’s order

  1. CLI → HLTfire smoke reaches large cities and loads health servicesСообщённые данные
  2. CLI → WAT → FOOdry years cut storage and allocation, and farm output followsInferred
  3. ENE → HLTa hot spell raises power demand while cooling is a health needInferred
  4. TRD → ENE → FOOa fuel supply disruption reaches farm and freight operationsInferred
  5. CLI → INF → FINfire or flood damages lifelines and the loss falls on insurers and budgetsInferred

05 · Findings

Every finding of Australia.

Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.

All 12 findings

Findings of Australia
IDВыпускSector or systemСтатусStatement
CLI-001АвстралияCLI Climate forcing Сообщённые данныеGreenhouse-gas emissions excluding land use were 591.5 Mt CO₂e in 2024, against 605.2 Mt in 2019 and 579.5 Mt in 2020.
CLI-002АвстралияCLI Climate forcing Сообщённые данныеThe legislated targets are 43% below 2005 by 2030 and net zero by 2050; a 2035 target of 62 to 70% below 2005 was announced in September 2025.
ENE-003АвстралияENE Энергетика Сообщённые данныеWind and solar supplied 33% of electricity in 2025; fossil fuels supplied 61% and coal 43%.
ENE-004АвстралияENE Энергетика Сообщённые данныеAustralia is a net energy exporter: net exports equalled about 211% of its own energy use in 2024.
CLI-005АвстралияCLI Climate forcing Сообщённые данныеThe 2019–20 fire season burnt about 24 million hectares, killed 33 people directly and destroyed more than 3,000 buildings.
HLT-006АвстралияHLT Здравоохранение Сообщённые данныеSmoke from the 2019–20 fires was linked to an estimated 417 deaths in a peer-reviewed study.
WAT-007АвстралияWAT Вода Сообщённые данныеNational water consumption was 17,223 GL in 2023–24, up 12.9%; agriculture, forestry and fishing used 11,760 GL, about 68%.
WAT-008АвстралияWAT Вода Сообщённые данныеMajor dam storages fell 8.1% to 57,931 GL at 30 June 2024, and area-average rainfall fell 12.3% to 535 mm while staying above the long-term average.
FOO-009АвстралияFOO Продовольствие Сообщённые данныеThe food production index was 122.5 in 2024 against 109.4 in 2023; agricultural land was 369 million hectares in 2021–22.
HLT-010АвстралияHLT Здравоохранение Сообщённые данныеLife expectancy was 81.1 years for males and 85.1 for females in 2022–24; 18.1% of the population was aged 65 or over in 2025.
BIO-011АвстралияBIO Биоразнообразие Сообщённые данныеProtected areas covered 22.0% of land and 45.4% of territorial waters in 2024.
SYS-012АвстралияSYS Системные риски Expert inputThe leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a hot, dry summer in which fire, smoke, heat and grid stress coincide in the populated south-east.
The full ledger, without scripts

06 · Editions and calendar

The desks’ editions for Australia.

The desks’ editions for Australia
БюроВыпускСтатусИдентификатор
GCRI Systems EvidenceAustralia 2026Drafted, in stewardship reviewNR-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
GRF Public DeliberationPublic Deliberation: Australia 2026В подготовке
GRA Capital ReadinessCapital Readiness: Australia 2026В подготовке
Standards ProgressNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Academy CapabilityNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Index MeasurementMeasurement: Australia 2026В подготовке

Calendar · 2026 Baseline

  1. 01Call opensset by the editor
  2. 02Contribution closeset by the editor
  3. 03Закрытие доказательной базы30 September 2026
  4. 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
  5. 05Collection compilationset by the editor
  6. 06Collection releaseset by the editor
  7. 07Исправленияafter release, as needed

Evidence cut NQ-AUS-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.

07 · Take part

Read it, improve it, cite it.

Журнал исправлений

Versions and corrections
ВерсияДатаСтатусИзменениеУведомление
NR-COUNTRY-AUS-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DRAFTBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,нет
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
Data gaps and proposed sources
РазрывShown here asProposed source
Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares)the edition’s own risk objects, without valuesthe Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/aus/
The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objectsan editorial reading of the hazard wordsthe NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry
Infrastructure in the coupling matrixInfrastructure marked not assessedan Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut
ОтчётыВнести вклад

Send evidence or a correction on Australia.

Отчёты is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) Системная и доказательной базы Глобального центра по рискам и инновациям (Global Centre for Risk and Innovation, GCRI): доказательная база, пример или исправление в следующем выпуске могут быть основаны на том, что вы знаете по этой теме. Авторство указывается за вами, а собственная работа публикуется по лицензии CC BY 4.0. Если материал отправлен не в то бюро, его перенаправляют, а не отклоняют.

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