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Turkiye 2026
Turkiye
Turkiye enters 2027 with rising emissions, a power fleet that has become mostly renewable by capacity, and a hazard regime that joins great earthquakes, drought and fire. Greenhouse-gas emissions were 584.5 Mt CO₂e in 2024, up 5.3% on 2023, and energy supplied 71.8% of the total.
- النتائج
- 12
- each with its status and source
- Sectors with findings
- 5 of 6
- Infrastructure not assessed
- Risk objects
- 4
- order carries no rank
- المصادر
- 46
- Evidence close 30 September 2026
01 · Readings
Turkiye in six readings.
Six readings that frame the Turkiye baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
02 · Sectors
Six sectors, one hexagon.
Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.
- WATالمياه1 finding
1,308 m³ Renewable water per person, a year, 2024. □مُبلَّغ عنه
About 1,308 m³ per person; reservoir and groundwater stress in drought years; Konya sinkholes.
- ENEالطاقة2 findings
62% Renewables in installed power capacity, 2025. □مُبلَّغ عنه
Renewables are 62% of capacity; coal still 34% of electricity; about 67% of primary energy imported.
- INFالبنية التحتيةnot assessed
Dense urban housing and lifeline stock in seismic zones; condition not bound at public-safe resolution.
- FOOالغذاء1 finding
17.9 Mt Wheat harvest, 2025. □مُبلَّغ عنه
Wheat output fell 13.7% in 2025 and is estimated to recover in 2026; food inflation about 38% in July 2026.
- HLTالصحة1 finding
11.1% Population aged 65 or over, 2025. □مُبلَّغ عنه
Younger than many peers; 11.1% aged 65 or over; heat-health burden not bound.
- BIOالتنوع البيولوجي1 finding
81,473 ha Forest land burned, 2025. □مُبلَّغ عنه
81,473 ha of forest burned in 2025; protected-area share not bound to one definition.
Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 2, Finance 1, SEI 2, Systemic 1.
03 · Hazard exposure
The hazards this edition reads.
The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.
RSK-TUR-SEI-001
Marmara-region or North Anatolian great earthquake
□مُبلَّغ عنهEQL 3
- المحرك
- rupture of faults beneath or near the Sea of Marmara
- التعرّض
- the Istanbul region and nearby provinces
- قابلية التأثر
- building-stock condition not bound in this edition
- القدرة
- compulsory insurance pool; response agency
- التسلسل المتتالي
- SEI → INF, ENE, HLT, FIN
- الأفق
- 30 years
RSK-TUR-CLI-002
Multi-year drought and water stress
□مُبلَّغ عنهEQL 4
- المحرك
- lower rainfall and higher temperature
- التعرّض
- cities, irrigated farmland, hydropower
- قابلية التأثر
- groundwater drawdown; reservoir storage
- القدرة
- storage and transfer works; demand management not bound
- التسلسل المتتالي
- CLI → WAT → FOO, ENE
- الأفق
- annual to 5 years
RSK-TUR-ENE-003
Fuel and gas import disruption
□مُبلَّغ عنهEQL 3
- المحرك
- price spike or supply interruption
- التعرّض
- power, industry, households
- قابلية التأثر
- about 67% of primary energy imported
- القدرة
- renewable fleet; storage depth not bound
- التسلسل المتتالي
- TRD → ENE → FOO, FIN
- الأفق
- 1–5 years
No domain reading
RSK-TUR-FOO-004
Short harvest and import price exposure
□مُبلَّغ عنهEQL 3
- المحرك
- drought or frost in a growing season
- التعرّض
- wheat, feed and household food budgets
- قابلية التأثر
- dependence on imports in short years
- القدرة
- stock and trade policy not bound
- التسلسل المتتالي
- CLI → FOO → FIN
- الأفق
- seasonal
Scenario · SCN-TUR-DRT-01
A drought year across water, hydropower, wheat and budgets
Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.
5 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them
- 1CLI → WATreservoirs and groundwater fall; city supply is restricted
- 2CLI → ENEhydropower output falls; other plants and imports fill the gap
- 3CLI → FOOwheat output falls; imports rise
- 4FOO → FINfood prices pass into household budgets
- 5WAT → BIOdry forests burn more; protected and unprotected land is affected
- 6WAT → INFgroundwater drawdown opens sinkholes on farmland
04 · Couplings
How the sectors carry risk into each other.
The Turkiye matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core النظم. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.
| من | WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | · | Strong | Strong | معتدلة | Strong |
| ENE | معتدلة | · | Strong | Strong | معتدلة |
| FOO | معتدلة | Weak | · | Strong | Strong |
| HLT | Weak | Weak | معتدلة | · | Weak |
| BIO | Strong | معتدلة | Strong | معتدلة | · |
Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.
Cascade paths, in the edition’s order
- SEI → INF → HLTa great الزلزال damages housing and lifelines across a province group□مُبلَّغ عنه
- SEI → FINrecovery needs weigh on public finance and insurance pools□مُبلَّغ عنه
- CLI → WAT → FOOa dry year lowers reservoirs and groundwater and cuts the wheat harvest□مُبلَّغ عنه
- CLI → WAT → ENEpersistent drought reduces hydropower output□مُبلَّغ عنه
- TRD → ENE → FINimport dependence passes fuel prices into the energy bill□مُبلَّغ عنه
05 · Findings
Every finding of Turkiye.
Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.
All 12 findings
| ID | الطبعة | Sector or system | الحالة | Statement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLI-001 | Turkiye | CLI Climate forcing | □ مُبلَّغ عنه | Greenhouse-gas emissions were 584.5 Mt CO₂e in 2024, up 5.3% on 2023, or 6.8 t per person; energy supplied 71.8% of the total. The 2035 limit is 643 Mt CO₂e including land use, with net zero by 2053. |
| ENE-002 | Turkiye | ENE الطاقة | □ مُبلَّغ عنه | Renewables were 62% of the 122.5 GW of installed power capacity at the end of 2025, and wind and solar produced about 22% of electricity; coal still produced 34%, about two-thirds of it from imported coal. |
| ENE-003 | Turkiye | ENE الطاقة | □ مُبلَّغ عنه | About 67% of primary energy was imported in 2024, and the 2025 energy import bill was USD 62.5 billion. |
| CLI-004 | Turkiye | CLI Climate forcing | □ مُبلَّغ عنه | 2025 averaged 15.1 °C, 1.2 °C above the 1991–2020 mean, with areal rainfall of 414.9 mm, 27.6% below that mean; 1,011 extreme events were recorded. |
| SEI-005 | Turkiye | SEI SEI | □ مُبلَّغ عنه | The earthquakes of 6 February 2023 killed about 53,500 people across 11 provinces home to about 14 million people; the government assessment put recovery needs at about USD 103.6 billion. |
| SEI-006 | Turkiye | SEI SEI | □ مُبلَّغ عنه | A magnitude 6.2 الزلزال struck the Sea of Marmara off Istanbul on 23 April 2025, and a published estimate gives a 53 ± 18% probability of a magnitude 7 or larger event beneath the Sea of Marmara in 2004–2034. |
| WAT-007 | Turkiye | WAT المياه | □ مُبلَّغ عنه | Renewable water per person fell from 1,652 m³ in 2000 to about 1,308 m³ in 2024; Istanbul’s reservoirs held 24.7% on 17 October 2025, and about 684 sinkholes have been counted on the Konya Plain. |
| FOO-008 | Turkiye | FOO الغذاء | □ مُبلَّغ عنه | The 2025 wheat harvest was about 17.9 million tonnes, down 13.7%; FAO estimates a record 22.8 million tonnes for 2026, and annual food inflation was about 38% in July 2026. |
| HLT-009 | Turkiye | HLT الصحة | □ مُبلَّغ عنه | 9.58 million people, 11.1% of the population, were aged 65 or over in 2025; the foreign population was 1.52 million, and about 2.4 million Syrians were under temporary protection at the end of 2025. |
| BIO-010 | Turkiye | BIO التنوع البيولوجي | □ مُبلَّغ عنه | Wildfires burned 81,473 ha of forest land in 2025, and about 3.8 million ha were under legal protection at the end of 2025. |
| FIN-011 | Turkiye | FIN المالية | □ مُبلَّغ عنه | The compulsory الزلزال insurance pool covered 11.7 million homes, 58% of residential units, in 2026; about 42% were uninsured. |
| SYS-012 | Turkiye | SYS النظمي | ◎ Expert input | The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a drought year that cuts water, hydropower, wheat output and household budgets together. |
06 · Editions and calendar
The desks’ editions for Turkiye.
| المكتب | الطبعة | الحالة | المعرّف |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | Turkiye 2026 | Drafted, in stewardship review | NR-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Public Deliberation: Türkiye 2026 | قيد الإعداد | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | Capital Readiness: Türkiye 2026 | قيد الإعداد | |
| Standards Progress | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Measurement: Türkiye 2026 | قيد الإعداد |
Calendar · 2026 Baseline
- 01Call opensset by the editor
- 02Contribution closeset by the editor
- 03إغلاق الأدلة30 September 2026
- 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
- 05Collection compilationset by the editor
- 06Collection releaseset by the editor
- 07التصحيحاتafter release, as needed
Evidence cut NQ-TUR-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.
07 · Take part
Read it, improve it, cite it.
- اقرأThe edition, chapter by chapter, with every source.
- ساهمSend evidence, a source or a method before the next cut.
- المراجعةJoin the stewardship review of this edition.
- CiteAPA, Chicago, BibTeX, RIS and the house style, as a draft.
- PDFThe signed PDF is issued at release; print the complete edition today.
سجل التصحيحات
| الإصدار | التاريخ | الحالة | التغير | إشعار |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NR-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | DRAFT | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | لا شيء |
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
| الفجوة | Shown here as | Proposed source |
|---|---|---|
| Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares) | the edition’s own risk objects, without values | the Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/tur/ |
| The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objects | an editorial reading of the hazard words | the NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry |
| Infrastructure in the coupling matrix | Infrastructure marked not assessed | an Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut |
Send evidence or a correction on Turkiye.
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