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Key findings

Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

5 min read1 figure0 tables24 notesNR-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Turkiye’s risk is seismic, climatic and import-dependent at once
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Climate forcing
    3. 2.3 Energy
    4. 2.4 SEI
    5. 2.5 Water
    6. 2.6 Food
    7. 2.7 Health
    8. 2.8 Biodiversity
    9. 2.9 Finance
    10. 2.10 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5A drought year across water, hydropower, wheat and budgets
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE-SEI-005

The earthquakes of 6 February 2023 killed about 53,500 people across 11 provinces, and the government assessment put recovery and reconstruction needs at about USD 103.6 billion, or about 9% of forecast 2023 GDP.

Figure 2.1The 2023 earthquakes: deaths and costs
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Deaths (thousands)≈53.5
Recovery and reconstruction need, TERRA (USD billion)≈103.6
Direct physical damage, GRADE (USD billion)>34.2

Sources: TMMOB report on official figures9; World Bank GRADE10; TERRA11. Units differ and the two cost figures measure different things.

Implication

One event reached housing, health, power, transport and public finance across 11 provinces at once. The recovery need set against national output shows the fiscal weight of a single seismic shock11. A separate published estimate gives a substantial probability of a magnitude 7 or larger earthquake beneath the Sea of Marmara, next to Istanbul, between 2004 and 203413.

What would move it

Progress on building-stock assessment and retrofit in the Marmara region, the next long-term seismic evaluations, and insurance take-up would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

    Greenhouse-gas emissions were 584.5 Mt CO₂e in 2024, up 5.3% on 2023, or 6.8 t per person; energy supplied 71.8% of the total. The 2035 limit is 643 Mt CO₂e including land use, with net zero by 2053.234

  2. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-004

    2025 averaged 15.1 °C, 1.2 °C above the 1991–2020 mean, with areal rainfall of 414.9 mm, 27.6% below that mean; 1,011 extreme events were recorded.8

2.3Energy

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE-ENE-002

    Renewables were 62.3% of the 122.5 GW of installed power capacity at the end of 2025, and wind and solar produced about 22% of electricity; coal still produced 34%, about two-thirds of it from imported coal.1417

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003

    About 67% of primary energy was imported in 2024, and the 2025 energy import bill was USD 62.5 billion.1516

2.4SEI

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE-SEI-005

    The earthquakes of 6 February 2023 killed about 53,500 people across 11 provinces home to about 14 million people; the government assessment put recovery needs at about USD 103.6 billion.91011

  2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE-SEI-006

    A magnitude 6.2 earthquake struck the Sea of Marmara off Istanbul on 23 April 2025, and a published estimate gives a 53 ± 18% probability of a magnitude 7 or larger event beneath the Sea of Marmara in 2004–2034.1213

2.5Water

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE-WAT-007

    Renewable water per person fell from 1,652 m³ in 2000 to about 1,308 m³ in 2024; Istanbul’s reservoirs held 24.7% on 17 October 2025, and about 684 sinkholes have been counted on the Konya Plain.212223

2.6Food

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE-FOO-008

    The 2025 wheat harvest was about 17.9 million tonnes, down 13.7%; FAO estimates a record 22.8 million tonnes for 2026, and annual food inflation was about 38% in July 2026.1920

2.7Health

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE-HLT-009

    9.58 million people, 11.1% of the population, were aged 65 or over in 2025; the foreign population was 1.52 million, and about 2.4 million Syrians were under temporary protection at the end of 2025.12530

2.8Biodiversity

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE-BIO-010

    Wildfires burned 81,473 ha of forest land in 2025, and about 3.8 million ha were under legal protection at the end of 2025.2426

2.9Finance

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE-FIN-011

    The compulsory earthquake insurance pool covered 11.7 million homes, 58% of residential units, in 2026; about 42% were uninsured.29

2.10Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a drought year that cuts water, hydropower, wheat output and household budgets together. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 9Union of Chambers of Turkish Engineers and Architects (ed.), Report on the first year after the 6 February 2023 earthquakes, citing official figures. TMMOB, Ankara, 2024. Observation year 2023.back
  2. 10World Bank and GFDRR (eds.), Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) Report: February 6, 2023 Kahramanmaraş Earthquakes, Türkiye Report. World Bank, Washington DC, February 2023. Observation year 2023.back
  3. 11Presidency of the Republic of Türkiye, Strategy and Budget Office (ed.), Türkiye Earthquakes Recovery and Reconstruction Assessment (TERRA). Ankara, March 2023, with UNDP, World Bank and EU support. Observation year 2023.back
  4. 13T. Parsons, “Recalculated probability of M ≥ 7 earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey,” Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, vol. 109, B05304, 2004. doi:10.1029/2003JB002667. Observation period 2004–2034. doi:10.1029/2003JB002667back
  5. 2Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Greenhouse Gas Emissions Statistics, 1990–2024. TurkStat, Ankara, 27 March 2026. Observation year 2024.back
  6. 3Ministry of Environment, Urbanisation and Climate Change (ed.), “Türkiye submits its second Nationally Determined Contribution to the United Nations.” Ankara, November 2025. Observation year 2035 target.back
  7. 4Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Türkiye: 2035 NDC assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, Berlin, 2025–2026. Observation year 2035 target.back
  8. 8Turkish State Meteorological Service (ed.), 2025 Climate Assessment of Türkiye (in Turkish). MGM, Ankara, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  9. 14Ember (ed.), Türkiye Electricity Review 2026. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  10. 17Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (ed.), installed power capacity at the end of 2025, as reported by SolarQuarter citing SHURA. Ankara, 22 January 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  11. 15Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (ed.), Primary Energy Mix of Türkiye 2024, presentation at the IENE conference. Ankara and Athens, 19 March 2026. Observation year 2024.back
  12. 16SHURA Energy Transition Center (ed.), Türkiye Energy Transition Outlook 2025. SHURA, Istanbul, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  13. 12Al Jazeera (ed.), “Magnitude 6.2 earthquake jolts Türkiye’s Istanbul,” reporting AFAD data. Doha, 23 April 2025. Observation year 2025.back
  14. 21State Hydraulic Works (DSİ), per-person annual water availability 2000 and 2024, as reported by Anadolu Agency and Milliyet. Ankara, 2025. Observation year 2024.back
  15. 22Istanbul Water and Sewerage Administration (İSKİ), reservoir occupancy of 17 October 2025, as reported by TRT Haber. Istanbul, October 2025. Observation date 17 October 2025.back
  16. 23Reuters, “Sinkholes in Turkey’s agricultural heartland fuel farmers’ concerns,” with AFAD assessment of 684 sinkholes, as published by Al-Monitor and The Star. 23 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
  17. 19Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Türkiye. FAO, Rome, reference date 7 September 2026. Observation years 2025–2026.back
  18. 20Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Crop Production Statistics 2025, as reported by eFeedLink. Ankara, 30 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
  19. 1Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Address Based Population Registration System Results 2025. TurkStat, Ankara, 9 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  20. 25Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Elderly Statistics 2025. TurkStat, Ankara, March 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  21. 30UNHCR (ed.), Annual Results Report 2025: Türkiye. UNHCR, Geneva, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  22. 24General Directorate of Forestry (OGM), 2025 forest-fire statistics, as reported by Turkish Minute. Ankara, 11 March 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  23. 26Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (ed.), legally protected areas at the end of 2025, as reported by Daily Sabah. Ankara, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  24. 29Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool (DASK), compulsory earthquake insurance coverage, as reported by Daily Sabah. Ankara and Istanbul, August 2026. Observation year 2026.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In Turkiye Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Turkiye’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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