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Turkiye 2026
Turkiye
Turkiye enters 2027 with rising emissions, a power fleet that has become mostly renewable by capacity, and a hazard regime that joins great earthquakes, drought and fire. Greenhouse-gas emissions were 584.5 Mt CO₂e in 2024, up 5.3% on 2023, and energy supplied 71.8% of the total.
- Findings
- 12
- each with its status and source
- Sectors with findings
- 5 of 6
- Infrastructure not assessed
- Risk objects
- 4
- order carries no rank
- Sources
- 46
- Evidence close 30 September 2026
01 · Readings
Turkiye in six readings.
Six readings that frame the Turkiye baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
02 · Sectors
Six sectors, one hexagon.
Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.
- WATWater1 finding
1,308 m³ Renewable water per person, a year, 2024. □Reported
About 1,308 m³ per person; reservoir and groundwater stress in drought years; Konya sinkholes.
- ENEEnergy2 findings
62% Renewables in installed power capacity, 2025. □Reported
Renewables are 62% of capacity; coal still 34% of electricity; about 67% of primary energy imported.
- INFInfrastructurenot assessed
Dense urban housing and lifeline stock in seismic zones; condition not bound at public-safe resolution.
- FOOFood1 finding
17.9 Mt Wheat harvest, 2025. □Reported
Wheat output fell 13.7% in 2025 and is estimated to recover in 2026; food inflation about 38% in July 2026.
- HLTHealth1 finding
11.1% Population aged 65 or over, 2025. □Reported
Younger than many peers; 11.1% aged 65 or over; heat-health burden not bound.
- BIOBiodiversity1 finding
81,473 ha Forest land burned, 2025. □Reported
81,473 ha of forest burned in 2025; protected-area share not bound to one definition.
Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 2, Finance 1, SEI 2, Systemic 1.
03 · Hazard exposure
The hazards this edition reads.
The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.
RSK-TUR-SEI-001
Marmara-region or North Anatolian great earthquake
□ReportedEQL 3
- Driver
- rupture of faults beneath or near the Sea of Marmara
- Exposure
- the Istanbul region and nearby provinces
- Vulnerability
- building-stock condition not bound in this edition
- Capacity
- compulsory insurance pool; response agency
- Cascade
- SEI → INF, ENE, HLT, FIN
- Horizon
- 30 years
RSK-TUR-CLI-002
Multi-year drought and water stress
□ReportedEQL 4
- Driver
- lower rainfall and higher temperature
- Exposure
- cities, irrigated farmland, hydropower
- Vulnerability
- groundwater drawdown; reservoir storage
- Capacity
- storage and transfer works; demand management not bound
- Cascade
- CLI → WAT → FOO, ENE
- Horizon
- annual to 5 years
RSK-TUR-ENE-003
Fuel and gas import disruption
□ReportedEQL 3
- Driver
- price spike or supply interruption
- Exposure
- power, industry, households
- Vulnerability
- about 67% of primary energy imported
- Capacity
- renewable fleet; storage depth not bound
- Cascade
- TRD → ENE → FOO, FIN
- Horizon
- 1–5 years
No domain reading
RSK-TUR-FOO-004
Short harvest and import price exposure
□ReportedEQL 3
- Driver
- drought or frost in a growing season
- Exposure
- wheat, feed and household food budgets
- Vulnerability
- dependence on imports in short years
- Capacity
- stock and trade policy not bound
- Cascade
- CLI → FOO → FIN
- Horizon
- seasonal
Scenario · SCN-TUR-DRT-01
A drought year across water, hydropower, wheat and budgets
Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.
5 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them
- 1CLI → WATreservoirs and groundwater fall; city supply is restricted
- 2CLI → ENEhydropower output falls; other plants and imports fill the gap
- 3CLI → FOOwheat output falls; imports rise
- 4FOO → FINfood prices pass into household budgets
- 5WAT → BIOdry forests burn more; protected and unprotected land is affected
- 6WAT → INFgroundwater drawdown opens sinkholes on farmland
04 · Couplings
How the sectors carry risk into each other.
The Turkiye matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.
| From | WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | · | Strong | Strong | Moderate | Strong |
| ENE | Moderate | · | Strong | Strong | Moderate |
| FOO | Moderate | Weak | · | Strong | Strong |
| HLT | Weak | Weak | Moderate | · | Weak |
| BIO | Strong | Moderate | Strong | Moderate | · |
Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.
Cascade paths, in the edition’s order
- SEI → INF → HLTa great earthquake damages housing and lifelines across a province group□Reported
- SEI → FINrecovery needs weigh on public finance and insurance pools□Reported
- CLI → WAT → FOOa dry year lowers reservoirs and groundwater and cuts the wheat harvest□Reported
- CLI → WAT → ENEpersistent drought reduces hydropower output□Reported
- TRD → ENE → FINimport dependence passes fuel prices into the energy bill□Reported
05 · Findings
Every finding of Turkiye.
Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.
All 12 findings
| ID | Edition | Sector or system | Status | Statement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLI-001 | Turkiye | CLI Climate forcing | □ Reported | Greenhouse-gas emissions were 584.5 Mt CO₂e in 2024, up 5.3% on 2023, or 6.8 t per person; energy supplied 71.8% of the total. The 2035 limit is 643 Mt CO₂e including land use, with net zero by 2053. |
| ENE-002 | Turkiye | ENE Energy | □ Reported | Renewables were 62% of the 122.5 GW of installed power capacity at the end of 2025, and wind and solar produced about 22% of electricity; coal still produced 34%, about two-thirds of it from imported coal. |
| ENE-003 | Turkiye | ENE Energy | □ Reported | About 67% of primary energy was imported in 2024, and the 2025 energy import bill was USD 62.5 billion. |
| CLI-004 | Turkiye | CLI Climate forcing | □ Reported | 2025 averaged 15.1 °C, 1.2 °C above the 1991–2020 mean, with areal rainfall of 414.9 mm, 27.6% below that mean; 1,011 extreme events were recorded. |
| SEI-005 | Turkiye | SEI SEI | □ Reported | The earthquakes of 6 February 2023 killed about 53,500 people across 11 provinces home to about 14 million people; the government assessment put recovery needs at about USD 103.6 billion. |
| SEI-006 | Turkiye | SEI SEI | □ Reported | A magnitude 6.2 earthquake struck the Sea of Marmara off Istanbul on 23 April 2025, and a published estimate gives a 53 ± 18% probability of a magnitude 7 or larger event beneath the Sea of Marmara in 2004–2034. |
| WAT-007 | Turkiye | WAT Water | □ Reported | Renewable water per person fell from 1,652 m³ in 2000 to about 1,308 m³ in 2024; Istanbul’s reservoirs held 24.7% on 17 October 2025, and about 684 sinkholes have been counted on the Konya Plain. |
| FOO-008 | Turkiye | FOO Food | □ Reported | The 2025 wheat harvest was about 17.9 million tonnes, down 13.7%; FAO estimates a record 22.8 million tonnes for 2026, and annual food inflation was about 38% in July 2026. |
| HLT-009 | Turkiye | HLT Health | □ Reported | 9.58 million people, 11.1% of the population, were aged 65 or over in 2025; the foreign population was 1.52 million, and about 2.4 million Syrians were under temporary protection at the end of 2025. |
| BIO-010 | Turkiye | BIO Biodiversity | □ Reported | Wildfires burned 81,473 ha of forest land in 2025, and about 3.8 million ha were under legal protection at the end of 2025. |
| FIN-011 | Turkiye | FIN Finance | □ Reported | The compulsory earthquake insurance pool covered 11.7 million homes, 58% of residential units, in 2026; about 42% were uninsured. |
| SYS-012 | Turkiye | SYS Systemic | ◎ Expert input | The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a drought year that cuts water, hydropower, wheat output and household budgets together. |
06 · Editions and calendar
The desks’ editions for Turkiye.
| Desk | Edition | State | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | Turkiye 2026 | Drafted, in stewardship review | NR-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Public Deliberation: Türkiye 2026 | In preparation | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | Capital Readiness: Türkiye 2026 | In preparation | |
| Standards Progress | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Measurement: Türkiye 2026 | In preparation |
Calendar · 2026 Baseline
- 01Call opensset by the editor
- 02Contribution closeset by the editor
- 03Evidence close30 September 2026
- 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
- 05Collection compilationset by the editor
- 06Collection releaseset by the editor
- 07Correctionsafter release, as needed
Evidence cut NQ-TUR-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.
07 · Take part
Read it, improve it, cite it.
- ReadThe edition, chapter by chapter, with every source.
- ContributeSend evidence, a source or a method before the next cut.
- ReviewJoin the stewardship review of this edition.
- CiteAPA, Chicago, BibTeX, RIS and the house style, as a draft.
- PDFThe signed PDF is issued at release; print the complete edition today.
Corrections log
| Version | Date | State | Change | Notice |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NR-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | DRAFT | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | none |
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
| Gap | Shown here as | Proposed source |
|---|---|---|
| Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares) | the edition’s own risk objects, without values | the Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/tur/ |
| The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objects | an editorial reading of the hazard words | the NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry |
| Infrastructure in the coupling matrix | Infrastructure marked not assessed | an Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut |
Send evidence or a correction on Turkiye.
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