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South Africa 2026

South Africa

South Africa enters 2027 as a middle-income economy of 63.5 million people whose water and electricity ব্যবস্থাগুলো are under strain, whose food supply is currently ample, and whose floods have become deadly at provincial scale. Greenhouse-gas emissions were about 478 Mt CO₂e in 2022 excluding land use, with energy supplying 78% of the total.

Read the editionHazard exposure
পর্যবেক্ষণ
12
each with its status and source
Sectors with findings
5 of 6
Infrastructure not assessed
Risk objects
4
order carries no rank
উৎস
49
Evidence close 30 September 2026

01 · Readings

South Africa in six readings.

Six readings that frame the South Africa baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  • 63.5millionpopulation, mid-2026 [1]
  • 10.7%aged 60 or over, 2026 [1]
  • 478Mt CO₂eemissions excl. land use, 2022 [2]
  • 7.8millionpeople living with HIV, 2026 [1]
  • 65.5 · 71.0yearslife expectancy, men · women, 2026 [1]
  • 9provinces25.7% of people live in Gauteng [1]

02 · Sectors

Six sectors, one hexagon.

Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.

  1. WATপানি2 findings

    47% Wastewater ব্যবস্থাগুলো in a critical state, 2025 (released 2026). Reported

    Many wastewater systems in a critical state; non-revenue water 47.3%; drinking-water quality reported as generally stable.

  2. ENEজ্বালানি2 findings

    749 GWh Energy shed by load-shedding, first half, 2025. Reported

    Load-shedding energy down 82%; fleet availability near 58%; fossil fuels 83% of electricity.

  3. INFঅবকাঠামোnot assessed

    Ageing water networks and a stressed grid; roads cut in floods.

  4. FOOখাদ্য1 finding

    17.1 million t Maize harvest, forecast, 2026. Reported

    Well above-average 2025 harvest; ample maize supply in 2026.

  5. HLTস্বাস্থ্য1 finding

    7.8 million People living with HIV, 2026. Reported

    About 7.8 million people living with HIV; life expectancy 65.5 and 71.0 years.

  6. BIOজীববৈচিত্র্য1 finding

    Not bound Ecosystem threat status, national, 2025. Not bound

    Headline figures of the 2025 assessment not bound.

Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 3, Finance 1, Systemic 1.

03 · Hazard exposure

The hazards this edition reads.

The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.

  • RSK-ZAF-CLI-001

    Heavy-rain flooding in a populated province

    ReportedEQL 3

    Driver
    intense rainfall and cut-off lows
    Exposure
    informal settlements, roads, river corridors
    Vulnerability
    dense low-lying housing; damaged networks
    Capacity
    disaster-management framework; warnings [25]
    Cascade
    CLI → INF, WAT, HLT
    Horizon
    annual

    Water systems

  • RSK-ZAF-WAT-002

    Wastewater and supply system failure

    ReportedEQL 4

    Driver
    poor maintenance, power loss, flood damage
    Exposure
    rivers and towns downstream of critical ব্যবস্থাগুলো
    Vulnerability
    47% of systems critical [9]
    Capacity
    Green and Blue Drop oversight; turnaround evidence not bound
    Cascade
    WAT → HLT, BIO, FOO
    Horizon
    1–5 years

    Water systems

  • RSK-ZAF-ENE-003

    Electricity supply shortfall

    ReportedEQL 4

    Driver
    low fleet availability and demand peaks
    Exposure
    water works, clinics, industry, households
    Vulnerability
    availability near 58% [5]
    Capacity
    load-shedding fell 82% in a year; new capacity [5] [28]
    Cascade
    ENE → WAT, HLT, FIN
    Horizon
    1–5 years

    No domain reading

  • RSK-ZAF-CLI-004

    Multi-year drought and water restriction

    InferredEQL 3

    Driver
    successive dry seasons
    Exposure
    metropolitan supply, irrigated farming
    Vulnerability
    high urban losses; dependence on few dams
    Capacity
    demand management proven in Cape Town 2018 [18]
    Cascade
    CLI → WAT → FOO, FIN
    Horizon
    1–5 years

    Water systems

Scenario · SCN-ZAF-PWR-01

Power shortfall and wastewater stress in a dense province

Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.

1 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them

  1. 1ENE → WATpumping and treatment lose power where backup is thin
  2. 2WAT → HLTuntreated discharge and supply gaps raise exposure to waterborne disease
  3. 3CLI → INFheavy rain damages roads and treatment works
  4. 4INF → FOOflooded roads delay food and fuel distribution
  5. 5ENE → FINrepair and tariff costs fall on municipal and household budgets
  6. 6WAT → HLTclinics that treat chronic disease lose water and power

04 · Couplings

How the sectors carry risk into each other.

The South Africa matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core ব্যবস্থাগুলো. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Coupling matrix, from row to column
FromWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT·StrongStrongModerateStrong
ENEModerate·StrongStrongModerate
FOOModerateWeak·StrongStrong
HLTWeakWeakModerate·Weak
BIOStrongModerateStrongModerate·

Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.

Cascade paths, in the edition’s order

  1. ENE → WAT → HLTa supply shortfall interrupts pumping and treatment, and exposure to untreated water risesInferred
  2. CLI → WAT → INFheavy rain damages treatment works and roadsReported
  3. CLI → INF → FOOflooded roads delay distribution to affected districtsInferred
  4. CLI → WAT → FOOmulti-year drought forces water restrictions on cities and farmsReported
  5. ENE → FINtariff rises load household and municipal budgetsReported

05 · Findings

Every finding of South Africa.

Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.

All 12 findings

Findings of South Africa
IDEditionSector or systemঅবস্থাStatement
CLI-001South AfricaCLI Climate forcing ReportedGreenhouse-gas emissions were about 478 Mt CO₂e in 2022 excluding land use, and land use was a sink of 43.2 Mt CO₂e; energy supplied 78% of the total excluding land use.
CLI-002South AfricaCLI Climate forcing ReportedThe second climate contribution, submitted on 24 October 2025, sets a 2035 range of 320 to 380 Mt CO₂e including land use and names net zero for 2050; the Climate Action Tracker rates it insufficient.
ENE-003South AfricaENE জ্বালানি ReportedEnergy shed by load-shedding fell 82% between the first halves of 2024 and 2025, to 749 GWh, while the Eskom fleet energy availability factor was 58%.
ENE-004South AfricaENE জ্বালানি ReportedFossil fuels supplied 83% of electricity in 2025 on the Ember country profile, and solar and wind 13%; national tariffs have risen 190% since 2014.
WAT-005South AfricaWAT পানি ReportedIn the 2025 Green Drop assessment 47% of 848 wastewater ব্যবস্থাগুলো were in a critical state, up from 39%, and systems rated excellent or good fell from 14% to 8%.
WAT-006South AfricaWAT পানি ReportedNon-revenue water was 47.3% nationally in the 2025 assessment, close to the 47.4% of 2023, and Gauteng lost about 431 billion litres a year.
FOO-007South AfricaFOO খাদ্য ReportedThe 2025 maize harvest was well above average and the 2026 harvest is forecast at 17.1 million tonnes, with cereals at about 19.5 million tonnes.
HLT-008South AfricaHLT স্বাস্থ্য ReportedAbout 7.8 million people were living with HIV in 2026, and life expectancy at birth was 65.5 years for men and 71.0 for women; 10.7% of the population was 60 or over.
BIO-009South AfricaBIO জীববৈচিত্র্য Not boundThe 2025 National Biodiversity Assessment was launched on 9 December 2025. Its headline figures are not bound in this edition.
FIN-010South AfricaFIN অর্থায়ন ReportedThe IMF projects real GDP growth of 1.1% for 2026, and the 2026 electricity tariff increase of 8.76% compares with a 4.5% inflation forecast.
CLI-011South AfricaCLI Climate forcing ReportedThe April 2022 floods in KwaZulu-Natal killed 459 people, and the June 2025 floods in the Eastern Cape killed 102 by the provincial count.
SYS-012South AfricaSYS Systemic Expert inputThe leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a power shortfall in a dense province whose wastewater systems are already in a critical state, with heavy rain added.
The full ledger, without scripts

06 · Editions and calendar

The desks’ editions for South Africa.

The desks’ editions for South Africa
DeskEditionStateIdentifier
GCRI Systems EvidenceSouth Africa 2026Drafted, in stewardship reviewNR-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
GRF Public DeliberationPublic Deliberation: South Africa 2026In preparation
GRA Capital ReadinessCapital Readiness: South Africa 2026In preparation
Standards ProgressNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Academy CapabilityNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Index MeasurementMeasurement: South Africa 2026In preparation

Calendar · 2026 Baseline

  1. 01Call opensset by the editor
  2. 02Contribution closeset by the editor
  3. 03Evidence close30 September 2026
  4. 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
  5. 05Collection compilationset by the editor
  6. 06Collection releaseset by the editor
  7. 07সংশোধনafter release, as needed

Evidence cut NQ-ZAF-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.

07 · Take part

Read it, improve it, cite it.

Corrections log

Versions and corrections
VersionDateStateChangeNotice
NR-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DRAFTBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,none
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
Data gaps and proposed sources
GapShown here asProposed source
Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares)the edition’s own risk objects, without valuesthe Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/zaf/
The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objectsan editorial reading of the hazard wordsthe NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry
Infrastructure in the coupling matrixInfrastructure marked not assessedan Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut
প্রতিবেদনঅবদান রাখুন

Send evidence or a correction on South Africa.

প্রতিবেদন is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) ব্যবস্থা Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.

GCRI Systems Evidence desk

কখনো ব্যক্তিগত তথ্য, সংবেদনশীল অবকাঠামোর বিবরণ বা ভাগ করার অধিকার নেই এমন কিছু পাঠাবেন না। কোনো অবদান ব্যবহারের আগে পর্যালোচনা করা হয়; এটি পাঠালে লেখকত্ব বা সম্পাদকীয় অধিকার জন্মায় না, এবং পৃষ্ঠপোষকতা কখনো কোনো সিদ্ধান্ত কেনে না।

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