Reports · GCRI · Country profile
South Africa 2026
Afrîkaya Başûr
South Africa enters 2027 as a middle-income economy of 63.5 million people whose water and electricity pergalan are under strain, whose food supply is currently ample, and whose floods have become deadly at provincial scale. Greenhouse-gas emissions were about 478 Mt CO₂e in 2022 excluding land use, with energy supplying 78% of the total.
- Encam
- 12
- each with its status and source
- Sectors with findings
- 5 of 6
- Infrastructure not assessed
- Risk objects
- 4
- order carries no rank
- Çavkanî
- 49
- Evidence close 30 September 2026
01 · Readings
South Africa in six readings.
Six readings that frame the South Africa baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
02 · Sectors
Six sectors, one hexagon.
Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.
- WATAv2 findings
47% Wastewater pergalan in a critical state, 2025 (released 2026). □Raportkirî
Many wastewater systems in a critical state; non-revenue water 47.3%; drinking-water quality reported as generally stable.
- ENEEnerjî2 findings
749 GWh Energy shed by load-shedding, first half, 2025. □Raportkirî
Load-shedding energy down 82%; fleet availability near 58%; fossil fuels 83% of electricity.
- INFBinesazînot assessed
Ageing water networks and a stressed grid; roads cut in floods.
- FOOXwarin1 finding
17.1 million t Maize harvest, forecast, 2026. □Raportkirî
Well above-average 2025 harvest; ample maize supply in 2026.
- HLTTenduristî1 finding
7.8 million People living with HIV, 2026. □Raportkirî
About 7.8 million people living with HIV; life expectancy 65.5 and 71.0 years.
- BIOCûrbecûrbûna jîndaran1 finding
Not bound Ecosystem threat status, national, 2025. ·Not bound
Headline figures of the 2025 assessment not bound.
Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 3, Finance 1, Systemic 1.
03 · Hazard exposure
The hazards this edition reads.
The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.
RSK-ZAF-CLI-001
Heavy-rain flooding in a populated province
□RaportkirîEQL 3
- Faktorê ajokar
- intense rainfall and cut-off lows
- Rûbirûbûn
- informal settlements, roads, river corridors
- Lawazî
- dense low-lying housing; damaged networks
- Kapasîte
- disaster-management framework; warnings [25]
- Kaskade
- CLI → INF, WAT, HLT
- Horizon
- annual
RSK-ZAF-WAT-002
Wastewater and supply system failure
□RaportkirîEQL 4
RSK-ZAF-ENE-003
Electricity supply shortfall
□RaportkirîEQL 4
- Faktorê ajokar
- low fleet availability and demand peaks
- Rûbirûbûn
- water works, clinics, industry, households
- Lawazî
- availability near 58% [5]
- Kaskade
- ENE → WAT, HLT, FIN
- Horizon
- 1–5 years
No domain reading
RSK-ZAF-CLI-004
Multi-year drought and water restriction
▲InferredEQL 3
- Faktorê ajokar
- successive dry seasons
- Rûbirûbûn
- metropolitan supply, irrigated farming
- Lawazî
- high urban losses; dependence on few dams
- Kapasîte
- demand management proven in Cape Town 2018 [18]
- Kaskade
- CLI → WAT → FOO, FIN
- Horizon
- 1–5 years
Scenario · SCN-ZAF-PWR-01
Power shortfall and wastewater stress in a dense province
Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.
1 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them
- 1ENE → WATpumping and treatment lose power where backup is thin
- 2WAT → HLTuntreated discharge and supply gaps raise exposure to waterborne disease
- 3CLI → INFheavy rain damages roads and treatment works
- 4INF → FOOflooded roads delay food and fuel distribution
- 5ENE → FINrepair and tariff costs fall on municipal and household budgets
- 6WAT → HLTclinics that treat chronic disease lose water and power
04 · Couplings
How the sectors carry risk into each other.
The South Africa matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core pergalan. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.
| From | WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | · | Strong | Strong | Navîn | Strong |
| ENE | Navîn | · | Strong | Strong | Navîn |
| FOO | Navîn | Weak | · | Strong | Strong |
| HLT | Weak | Weak | Navîn | · | Weak |
| BIO | Strong | Navîn | Strong | Navîn | · |
Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.
Cascade paths, in the edition’s order
- ENE → WAT → HLTa supply shortfall interrupts pumping and treatment, and exposure to untreated water rises▲Inferred
- CLI → WAT → INFheavy rain damages treatment works and roads□Raportkirî
- CLI → INF → FOOflooded roads delay distribution to affected districts▲Inferred
- CLI → WAT → FOOmulti-year drought forces water restrictions on cities and farms□Raportkirî
- ENE → FINtariff rises load household and municipal budgets□Raportkirî
05 · Findings
Every finding of South Africa.
Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.
All 12 findings
| ID | Çap | Sector or system | Rewş | Statement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLI-001 | Afrîkaya Başûr | CLI Climate forcing | □ Raportkirî | Greenhouse-gas emissions were about 478 Mt CO₂e in 2022 excluding land use, and land use was a sink of 43.2 Mt CO₂e; energy supplied 78% of the total excluding land use. |
| CLI-002 | Afrîkaya Başûr | CLI Climate forcing | □ Raportkirî | The second climate contribution, submitted on 24 October 2025, sets a 2035 range of 320 to 380 Mt CO₂e including land use and names net zero for 2050; the Climate Action Tracker rates it insufficient. |
| ENE-003 | Afrîkaya Başûr | ENE Enerjî | □ Raportkirî | Energy shed by load-shedding fell 82% between the first halves of 2024 and 2025, to 749 GWh, while the Eskom fleet energy availability factor was 58%. |
| ENE-004 | Afrîkaya Başûr | ENE Enerjî | □ Raportkirî | Fossil fuels supplied 83% of electricity in 2025 on the Ember country profile, and solar and wind 13%; national tariffs have risen 190% since 2014. |
| WAT-005 | Afrîkaya Başûr | WAT Av | □ Raportkirî | In the 2025 Green Drop assessment 47% of 848 wastewater pergalan were in a critical state, up from 39%, and systems rated excellent or good fell from 14% to 8%. |
| WAT-006 | Afrîkaya Başûr | WAT Av | □ Raportkirî | Non-revenue water was 47.3% nationally in the 2025 assessment, close to the 47.4% of 2023, and Gauteng lost about 431 billion litres a year. |
| FOO-007 | Afrîkaya Başûr | FOO Xwarin | □ Raportkirî | The 2025 maize harvest was well above average and the 2026 harvest is forecast at 17.1 million tonnes, with cereals at about 19.5 million tonnes. |
| HLT-008 | Afrîkaya Başûr | HLT Tenduristî | □ Raportkirî | About 7.8 million people were living with HIV in 2026, and life expectancy at birth was 65.5 years for men and 71.0 for women; 10.7% of the population was 60 or over. |
| BIO-009 | Afrîkaya Başûr | BIO Cûrbecûrbûna jîndaran | · Not bound | The 2025 National Biodiversity Assessment was launched on 9 December 2025. Its headline figures are not bound in this edition. |
| FIN-010 | Afrîkaya Başûr | FIN Fînans | □ Raportkirî | The IMF projects real GDP growth of 1.1% for 2026, and the 2026 electricity tariff increase of 8.76% compares with a 4.5% inflation forecast. |
| CLI-011 | Afrîkaya Başûr | CLI Climate forcing | □ Raportkirî | The April 2022 floods in KwaZulu-Natal killed 459 people, and the June 2025 floods in the Eastern Cape killed 102 by the provincial count. |
| SYS-012 | Afrîkaya Başûr | SYS Systemic | ◎ Expert input | The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a power shortfall in a dense province whose wastewater systems are already in a critical state, with heavy rain added. |
06 · Editions and calendar
The desks’ editions for South Africa.
| Desk | Çap | Dewlet | Nasker |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | South Africa 2026 | Drafted, in stewardship review | NR-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Public Deliberation: South Africa 2026 | Di amadekirinê de | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | Capital Readiness: South Africa 2026 | Di amadekirinê de | |
| Standards Progress | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Measurement: South Africa 2026 | Di amadekirinê de |
Calendar · 2026 Baseline
- 01Call opensset by the editor
- 02Contribution closeset by the editor
- 03Evidence close30 September 2026
- 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
- 05Collection compilationset by the editor
- 06Collection releaseset by the editor
- 07Rastkirinafter release, as needed
Evidence cut NQ-ZAF-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.
07 · Take part
Read it, improve it, cite it.
- ReadThe edition, chapter by chapter, with every source.
- Tevkarî bikeSend evidence, a source or a method before the next cut.
- NirxandinJoin the stewardship review of this edition.
- CiteAPA, Chicago, BibTeX, RIS and the house style, as a draft.
- PDFThe signed PDF is issued at release; print the complete edition today.
Corrections log
| Guhertoy | Date | Dewlet | Change | Notice |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NR-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | DRAFT | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | tune |
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
| Valahî | Shown here as | Proposed source |
|---|---|---|
| Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares) | the edition’s own risk objects, without values | the Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/zaf/ |
| The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objects | an editorial reading of the hazard words | the NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry |
| Infrastructure in the coupling matrix | Infrastructure marked not assessed | an Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut |
Send evidence or a correction on South Africa.
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