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South Africa 2026

África do Sul

South Africa enters 2027 as a middle-income economy of 63.5 million people whose water and electricity sistemas are under strain, whose food supply is currently ample, and whose floods have become deadly at provincial scale. Greenhouse-gas emissions were about 478 Mt CO₂e in 2022 excluding land use, with energy supplying 78% of the total.

Read the editionExposição a ameaças
Constatações
12
each with its status and source
Sectors with findings
5 of 6
Infrastructure not assessed
Risk objects
4
order carries no rank
Fontes
49
Evidence close 30 September 2026

01 · Readings

South Africa in six readings.

Six readings that frame the South Africa baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  • 63.5millionpopulation, mid-2026 [1]
  • 10.7%aged 60 or over, 2026 [1]
  • 478Mt CO₂eemissions excl. land use, 2022 [2]
  • 7.8millionpeople living with HIV, 2026 [1]
  • 65.5 · 71.0anoslife expectancy, men · women, 2026 [1]
  • 9provinces25.7% of people live in Gauteng [1]

02 · Sectors

Six sectors, one hexagon.

Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.

  1. WATÁgua2 findings

    47% Wastewater sistemas in a critical state, 2025 (released 2026). Declarado

    Many wastewater systems in a critical state; non-revenue water 47.3%; drinking-water quality reported as generally stable.

  2. ENEEnergia2 findings

    749 GWh Energy shed by load-shedding, first half, 2025. Declarado

    Load-shedding energy down 82%; fleet availability near 58%; fossil fuels 83% of electricity.

  3. INFinfraestruturanot assessed

    Ageing water networks and a stressed grid; roads cut in floods.

  4. FOOAlimentação1 finding

    17.1 million t Maize harvest, forecast, 2026. Declarado

    Well above-average 2025 harvest; ample maize supply in 2026.

  5. HLTSaúde1 finding

    7.8 million People living with HIV, 2026. Declarado

    About 7.8 million people living with HIV; life expectancy 65.5 and 71.0 years.

  6. BIOBiodiversidade1 finding

    Not bound Ecosystem threat status, national, 2025. Not bound

    Headline figures of the 2025 assessment not bound.

Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 3, Finance 1, Systemic 1.

03 · Hazard exposure

The hazards this edition reads.

The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.

  • RSK-ZAF-CLI-001

    Heavy-rain flooding in a populated province

    DeclaradoEQL 3

    Fator
    intense rainfall and cut-off lows
    Exposição
    informal settlements, roads, river corridors
    Vulnerabilidade
    dense low-lying housing; damaged networks
    Capacidade
    disaster-management framework; warnings [25]
    Cascata
    CLI → INF, WAT, HLT
    Horizonte
    anual

    Sistemas hídricos

  • RSK-ZAF-WAT-002

    Wastewater and supply system failure

    DeclaradoEQL 4

    Fator
    poor maintenance, power loss, flood damage
    Exposição
    rivers and towns downstream of critical sistemas
    Vulnerabilidade
    47% of systems critical [9]
    Capacidade
    Green and Blue Drop oversight; turnaround evidence not bound
    Cascata
    WAT → HLT, BIO, FOO
    Horizonte
    1–5 years

    Sistemas hídricos

  • RSK-ZAF-ENE-003

    Electricity supply shortfall

    DeclaradoEQL 4

    Fator
    low fleet availability and demand peaks
    Exposição
    water works, clinics, industry, households
    Vulnerabilidade
    availability near 58% [5]
    Capacidade
    load-shedding fell 82% in a year; new capacity [5] [28]
    Cascata
    ENE → WAT, HLT, FIN
    Horizonte
    1–5 years

    No domain reading

  • RSK-ZAF-CLI-004

    Multi-year drought and water restriction

    InferredEQL 3

    Fator
    successive dry seasons
    Exposição
    metropolitan supply, irrigated farming
    Vulnerabilidade
    high urban losses; dependence on few dams
    Capacidade
    demand management proven in Cape Town 2018 [18]
    Cascata
    CLI → WAT → FOO, FIN
    Horizonte
    1–5 years

    Sistemas hídricos

Scenario · SCN-ZAF-PWR-01

Power shortfall and wastewater stress in a dense province

Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.

1 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them

  1. 1ENE → WATpumping and treatment lose power where backup is thin
  2. 2WAT → HLTuntreated discharge and supply gaps raise exposure to waterborne disease
  3. 3CLI → INFheavy rain damages roads and treatment works
  4. 4INF → FOOflooded roads delay food and fuel distribution
  5. 5ENE → FINrepair and tariff costs fall on municipal and household budgets
  6. 6WAT → HLTclinics that treat chronic disease lose water and power

04 · Couplings

How the sectors carry risk into each other.

The South Africa matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core sistemas. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Coupling matrix, from row to column
DeWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT·StrongStrongModeradoStrong
ENEModerado·StrongStrongModerado
FOOModeradoWeak·StrongStrong
HLTWeakWeakModerado·Weak
BIOStrongModeradoStrongModerado·

Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.

Cascade paths, in the edition’s order

  1. ENE → WAT → HLTa supply shortfall interrupts pumping and treatment, and exposure to untreated water risesInferred
  2. CLI → WAT → INFheavy rain damages treatment works and roadsDeclarado
  3. CLI → INF → FOOflooded roads delay distribution to affected districtsInferred
  4. CLI → WAT → FOOmulti-year drought forces water restrictions on cities and farmsDeclarado
  5. ENE → FINtariff rises load household and municipal budgetsDeclarado

05 · Findings

Every finding of South Africa.

Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.

All 12 findings

Findings of South Africa
IDEdiçãoSector or systemSituaçãoStatement
CLI-001África do SulCLI Climate forcing DeclaradoGreenhouse-gas emissions were about 478 Mt CO₂e in 2022 excluding land use, and land use was a sink of 43.2 Mt CO₂e; energy supplied 78% of the total excluding land use.
CLI-002África do SulCLI Climate forcing DeclaradoThe second climate contribution, submitted on 24 October 2025, sets a 2035 range of 320 to 380 Mt CO₂e including land use and names net zero for 2050; the Climate Action Tracker rates it insufficient.
ENE-003África do SulENE Energia DeclaradoEnergy shed by load-shedding fell 82% between the first halves of 2024 and 2025, to 749 GWh, while the Eskom fleet energy availability factor was 58%.
ENE-004África do SulENE Energia DeclaradoFossil fuels supplied 83% of electricity in 2025 on the Ember country profile, and solar and wind 13%; national tariffs have risen 190% since 2014.
WAT-005África do SulWAT Água DeclaradoIn the 2025 Green Drop assessment 47% of 848 wastewater sistemas were in a critical state, up from 39%, and systems rated excellent or good fell from 14% to 8%.
WAT-006África do SulWAT Água DeclaradoÁgua não faturada was 47.3% nationally in the 2025 assessment, close to the 47.4% of 2023, and Gauteng lost about 431 billion litres a year.
FOO-007África do SulFOO Alimentação DeclaradoThe 2025 maize harvest was well above average and the 2026 harvest is forecast at 17.1 million tonnes, with cereals at about 19.5 million tonnes.
HLT-008África do SulHLT Saúde DeclaradoAbout 7.8 million people were living with HIV in 2026, and life expectancy at birth was 65.5 years for men and 71.0 for women; 10.7% of the population was 60 or over.
BIO-009África do SulBIO Biodiversidade Not boundThe 2025 National Biodiversity Assessment was launched on 9 December 2025. Its headline figures are not bound in this edition.
FIN-010África do SulFIN Finanças DeclaradoThe IMF projects real GDP growth of 1.1% for 2026, and the 2026 electricity tariff increase of 8.76% compares with a 4.5% inflation forecast.
CLI-011África do SulCLI Climate forcing DeclaradoThe April 2022 floods in KwaZulu-Natal killed 459 people, and the June 2025 floods in the Eastern Cape killed 102 by the provincial count.
SYS-012África do SulSYS Sistêmico Expert inputThe leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a power shortfall in a dense province whose wastewater systems are already in a critical state, with heavy rain added.
The full ledger, without scripts

06 · Editions and calendar

The desks’ editions for South Africa.

The desks’ editions for South Africa
EscritórioEdiçãoSituaçãoIdentificador
GCRI Systems EvidenceSouth Africa 2026Drafted, in stewardship reviewNR-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
GRF Public DeliberationPublic Deliberation: South Africa 2026Em preparação
GRA Capital ReadinessCapital Readiness: South Africa 2026Em preparação
Standards ProgressNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Academy CapabilityNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Index MeasurementMeasurement: South Africa 2026Em preparação

Calendar · 2026 Baseline

  1. 01Call opensset by the editor
  2. 02Contribution closeset by the editor
  3. 03Fecho das evidências30 September 2026
  4. 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
  5. 05Collection compilationset by the editor
  6. 06Collection releaseset by the editor
  7. 07Correçõesafter release, as needed

Evidence cut NQ-ZAF-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.

07 · Take part

Read it, improve it, cite it.

Corrections log

Versions and corrections
VersãoDateSituaçãoVariaçãoNotice
NR-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DRAFTBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,nenhum
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
Data gaps and proposed sources
LacunaShown here asProposed source
Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares)the edition’s own risk objects, without valuesthe Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/zaf/
The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objectsan editorial reading of the hazard wordsthe NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry
Infrastructure in the coupling matrixInfrastructure marked not assessedan Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut
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