Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Reports
Baseline Edition 2026
Complete edition

Global Energy Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Energy System.

Choose A4 or Letter in the print dialog; running heads and page numbers are added in print. This is a review copy: the signed PDF with its DOI is issued at release.

ReportsGS-02

Global Sector Risk and Resilience

Global Energy 2026

Baseline Edition 2026NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Imprint

Editor: Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
Publisher of record: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto
Report number: NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE
Evidence close: 30 September 2026, cut DC-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-B0
Status: Draft under stewardship review; not yet released
DOI and UNI: Issued at deposit
Licence: CC BY 4.0 for Nexus-authored text, tables and figures; third-party material keeps its own licence
Cite as: Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Global Energy Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Energy System. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/gs-02/

Contents

·
Executive summary
1
Chapter 1. Energy is where the systems meet
2
Chapter 2. Key findings
3
Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline
4
Chapter 4. Risks and capability
5
Chapter 5. Fuel supply shock under a hot, high-demand season
6
Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks
7
Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda
8
Chapter 8. Systems in depth
A
Annex A. Methodology
B
Annex B. Data appendix
C
Annex C. References and record

Global Energy 2026
Executive summary

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

5 min read1 figure0 tables9 notesNR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

S.1Abstract

The world enters 2027 with an energy system that is growing, electrifying and under strain at the same time. Global energy demand grew 1.3% in 2025 and electricity demand grew nearly 3%, more than twice as fast². Solar supplied more than a quarter of the growth in energy demand, and renewables (33.8%) edged ahead of coal (33.0%) in global electricity generation for the first time²⁷. Energy-related CO2 emissions still reached a record of more than 38 Gt². Investment is estimated at USD 3.4 trillion in 2026, with about USD 1.6 trillion in electricity supply and infrastructure¹. Access is unfinished: 655 million people lacked electricity in 2024 and about 2.0 billion relied mainly on polluting fuels for cooking⁸. Security of supply is the sharpest pressure. The Middle East conflict that began on 28 February 2026 cut flows through the Strait of Hormuz, IEA members made a record emergency oil release, and EIA assumes flows stay constrained through the fourth quarter of 2026⁴⁷¹¹¹². Critical minerals add a second chokepoint: refining is concentrated and export controls have spread³. Data centres are a fast-growing load, about 415 TWh in 2024 and about 945 TWh by 2030 in the IEA base case⁴. This baseline sets out what the evidence supports and where it is thin. It ranks no country and recommends no policy.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the energy baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

Energy demand grew 1.3% in 2025 and electricity nearly 3%.²
How fast is energy demand growing?Reported
Solar led growth; renewables edged past coal in generation.²⁷
What is changing in supply?Reported
No. Energy CO2 reached a record above 38 Gt, up about 0.4%.²
Are emissions falling?Reported
About USD 3.4 trillion in 2026, with electricity supply and infrastructure at USD 1.6 trillion.¹
Where is the money going?Reported
655 million without electricity and about 2.0 billion cooking with polluting fuels.⁸
Who still lacks energy?Reported
Hormuz flows were cut from March 2026 and remain constrained in the EIA outlook.⁴⁷¹¹
How secure is fuel supply?Reported
Refining is concentrated and export controls have tripled in scope.³
Do minerals add risk?Reported
A fuel shock that coincides with heat and grid stress. SCN-GS02-LNG-01
What will 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-007

In 2024, 655 million people lacked electricity and about 2.0 billion people relied mainly on polluting fuels for cooking.

Figure S.1People without services, 2024 (million)

Item	Bar, scaled to the largest value	Value
Without electricity		655
Relying on polluting cooking fuels		2,000

Source: SDG 7 custodian agencies, Extended Report 2026⁸.

The access gap is now concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa, which holds 563 million of the people without electricity and 970 million of those without clean cooking. Affordability is a binding constraint: only about 22% of households without access can afford the monthly payments for a basic solar home system⁸.

S.4At a glance

1.3%

growth in energy demand, 2025²

≈3%

growth in electricity demand, 2025²

33.8%

renewables in global electricity⁷

3.4USD trillion

investment, 2026e¹

655million

without electricity, 2024⁸

945TWh

data centres by 2030, base case⁴

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports reading energy as the coupling layer of the WEFH+B system.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people energy risk arrives as a power cut, a higher bill or a cooking fire.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Investment is high, price volatility has risen and public finance for minerals is growing.

NEXUS

Synthesis

The energy system is well measured at the level of demand and generation and thinly measured at the level of equipment, constraints and water.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the 2026 state of the world’s energy system and the couplings through which it carries risk into other systems. It synthesises published evidence and ranks no country, company or asset.

What it is not

Not an energy-security ranking, a forecast of prices, a supply recommendation or an assessment of any utility, regulator, producer or government. Energy policy, markets and operations rest with national authorities, system operators and companies.

What comes next

National, regional and sector evidence feeds the 2027 energy edition through the federation. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline: observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

2IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026 (revised version, May 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026: 2025 in review (generation, demand, solar, coal). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
1IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2026, launch presentation, Paris, 28 May 2026. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026 (estimates, with 2025 data). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 7 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
47US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026 (Brent about USD 91 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026; Middle East oil flows assumed constrained through the fourth quarter of 2026). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Oil Market Report, September 2026; flows through the strait of 7.6 mb/d in August, 2026 supply 100.7 mb/d and demand 102.5 mb/d, and taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), collective action on emergency oil stocks agreed on 11 March 2026 (400 million barrels, the largest release in the agency’s history), with export volumes through the strait below 10% of pre-conflict levels and pre-war flows of about 20 mb/d, taken from search-result summaries; the release itself is also noted in the opened minerals outlook [3]. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4IEA (ed.), Energy and AI (World Energy Outlook Special Report). International Energy Agency, Paris, April 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Global Energy 2026
Chapter 1

Energy is where the systems meet

Part I describes systems and their couplings. It ranks no country or operator and assesses no authority.

6 min read2 figures2 tables11 notesNR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

Where is energy risk concentrated?
Which couplings carry energy shocks into other systems?
Which energy capabilities hold under compound stress?
What must 2027 evidence measure first?

In this part

Narrative
Headline finding
Lead figure
Five coupling chapters
Twelve-domain reading
Sector screens
Dependency matrix
Risk objects
Capability ladder
Scenario
Three lenses
Portfolio

1.2The argument

Energy is usually reported as a sector: fuels, power, prices. The 2026 evidence reads it as the medium through which almost every other system’s risk travels. Water pumping and cooling, fertiliser and cold chains, clinics and cooking, and the digital economy all rest on it⁸³⁴.

The supply side is changing at the margin. Solar was the largest source of growth in energy demand in 2025, and renewables edged past coal in global generation²⁷. Yet fossil fuels still supplied about 86% of primary energy¹⁵, and energy-related CO2 reached a record above 38 Gt².

Security is the sharpest pressure. After the conflict began on 28 February 2026, flows through the Strait of Hormuz fell sharply, IEA members made a record emergency oil release and EIA assumes flows stay constrained through the fourth quarter⁴⁷¹¹¹². The same shock reached LNG, aluminium and sulphur markets³¹³.

Electricity is the common thread. It grew more than twice as fast as energy demand in 2025², data centres are an increasing share of it⁴, and the grids that carry it fail in ways that are only now understood, as the Iberian blackout shows⁹. Access remains unfinished for 655 million people⁸.

Figure 1.1How far is the world from universal energy access? People without services, 2024 (million)

The cooking gap is about three times the electricity gap. Both are concentrated in the same places, so they compound each other’s effects on health and time use⁸.

Item	Bar, scaled to the largest value	Value
Polluting cooking fuels		2000
Without electricity		655

Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2024.

Figure ID FIG-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-01-003

563million

without electricity in Sub-Saharan Africa⁸

970million

cooking with polluting fuels in Sub-Saharan Africa⁸

22%

of unserved households can afford a basic solar home system⁸

300million

Mission 300 target for Africa by 2030⁸

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The energy-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems, read for their energy content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.

Figure 1.2Couplings between the five systems

Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.

Strong
Moderate
Weak

Source: this edition’s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.

Table 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
From, to	WAT	ENE	FOO	HLT	BIO
WAT Water	·	STRONG hydro · cooling water	MODERATE irrigation pumping load	WEAK supply and treatment	MODERATE reservoir flows
ENE Energy	STRONG pumping · treatment · desalination	·	STRONG fuel · fertiliser · cold chain	STRONG clean cooking · clinics · cooling	MODERATE mining · land use
FOO Food	WEAK withdrawals	MODERATE bioenergy · diesel pumping	·	WEAK nutrition	MODERATE land for biofuel
HLT Health	WEAK workforce	WEAK workforce	WEAK labour	·	WEAK residues
BIO Biodiversity	MODERATE catchments	MODERATE biomass · hydrology	WEAK pollination	WEAK zoonoses	·
Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.

Transmission paths

01
CLI → ENE → HLT
A heat wave raises cooling demand while supply is short; clinics and homes lose power.
Inferred 2022 Europe and Asia heat; 2025 blackout⁹
02
ENE → FOO
Fuel, fertiliser and acid price shocks reach farms and food prices.
Reported 2026 sulphur and fertiliser disruption³
03
MIN → ENE
Export controls on minerals slow power equipment and batteries.
Reported 2025 rare-earth and graphite controls³
04
TRD → ENE → FIN
A chokepoint closure lifts prices and strains importers’ budgets.
Reported 2026 Hormuz closure⁴⁷¹¹
05
AIC → ENE
Clustered data-centre load tightens local grids.
Reported US growth in 2025²⁴

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Table 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
Loop	First direction	Second direction
WAT and ENE	Water to energy: hydro · cooling water	Energy to water: pumping · treatment · desalination
A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

8UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 7 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4IEA (ed.), Energy and AI (World Energy Outlook Special Report). International Energy Agency, Paris, April 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026 (revised version, May 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026: 2025 in review (generation, demand, solar, coal). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15UNVERIFIED, not opened: Energy Institute (ed.), Statistical Review of World Energy 2026 (75th edition; fossil fuels about 86% of primary energy, hydropower 2.7%, electricity demand up 3%); values taken from a trade-press summary that was opened, not from the Review. Energy Institute, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
47US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026 (Brent about USD 91 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026; Middle East oil flows assumed constrained through the fourth quarter of 2026). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Oil Market Report, September 2026; flows through the strait of 7.6 mb/d in August, 2026 supply 100.7 mb/d and demand 102.5 mb/d, and taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), collective action on emergency oil stocks agreed on 11 March 2026 (400 million barrels, the largest release in the agency’s history), with export volumes through the strait below 10% of pre-conflict levels and pre-war flows of about 20 mb/d, taken from search-result summaries; the release itself is also noted in the opened minerals outlook [3]. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Gas Market Report, Q2-2026; Ras Laffan offline since early March 2026 and nearly a fifth of global LNG supply removed, taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9ENTSO-E (ed.), 28 April 2025 Iberian blackout: final report of the expert panel (publication page; report dated 20 March 2026). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Global Energy 2026
Chapter 2

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the energy baseline. They are grouped by coupling and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

5 min read1 figure0 tables14 notesNR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-007

In 2024, 655 million people lacked electricity and about 2.0 billion people relied mainly on polluting fuels for cooking.

Figure 2.1People without services, 2024 (million)

Item	Bar, scaled to the largest value	Value
Without electricity		655
Relying on polluting cooking fuels		2,000

Source: SDG 7 custodian agencies, Extended Report 2026⁸.

Implication

What would move it

The next SDG 7 report, the pace of Mission 300 connections and the affordability of off-grid solar would each move this finding.

2.2Energy

ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-001
Global energy demand grew 1.3% (8 EJ) in 2025, down from 2% in 2024, and electricity demand grew nearly 3%, more than twice as fast.²¹⁵
ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-002
Solar PV met more than 25% of the growth in global energy demand in 2025, and low-emissions sources together met nearly 60%.²
ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003
Renewables supplied 33.8% of global electricity in 2025 and coal 33.0%; fossil generation fell 38 TWh, the first annual fall since 2020.⁷
ReportedEQL 3NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-009
Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex has been offline since early March 2026, removing nearly a fifth of global LNG supply, after a build-out of about 300 bcm a year of new LNG capacity was expected by 2030.⁵¹³

2.3Climate forcing

ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-004
Energy-related CO2 emissions rose about 0.4% in 2025 to a record of more than 38 Gt.²¹⁵

2.4Finance

ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-005
Global energy investment is estimated at USD 3.4 trillion in 2026, against USD 2.6 trillion in 2015, with electricity supply and infrastructure at about USD 1.6 trillion.¹¹⁷

2.5AIC

ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-AIC-006
Data centres used about 415 TWh in 2024, about 1.5% of global electricity, and the IEA base case reaches about 945 TWh by 2030.⁴²

2.6Health

ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-007
655 million people lacked electricity in 2024 and about 2.0 billion relied mainly on polluting fuels for cooking.⁸

2.7Governance

ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-008
Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz fell sharply after 28 February 2026; IEA members released a record 400 million barrels, and EIA assumes flows stay constrained through the fourth quarter of 2026.⁴⁷¹¹¹²

2.8Minerals

ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-010
The top refining country’s average share of key energy minerals rose to 72% in 2025 from 70% in 2023, excluding rare earths, and the mineral tariff codes under Chinese export controls tripled since 2023.³

2.9Infrastructure

ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-011
The Iberian blackout of 28 April 2025 came from interacting factors, including voltage control gaps, oscillations and generator disconnections, according to the ENTSO-E final report of 20 March 2026.⁹

2.10Systemic

Expert inputEQL 2NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012
The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a fuel supply shock that coincides with a hot, high-demand season and a stressed grid. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

8UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 7 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026 (revised version, May 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15UNVERIFIED, not opened: Energy Institute (ed.), Statistical Review of World Energy 2026 (75th edition; fossil fuels about 86% of primary energy, hydropower 2.7%, electricity demand up 3%); values taken from a trade-press summary that was opened, not from the Review. Energy Institute, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026: 2025 in review (generation, demand, solar, coal). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5IEA (ed.), Gas 2025: Analysis and forecasts to 2030 (Gas Market Report, Q4-2025). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Gas Market Report, Q2-2026; Ras Laffan offline since early March 2026 and nearly a fifth of global LNG supply removed, taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
1IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2026, launch presentation, Paris, 28 May 2026. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026 (estimates, with 2025 data). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2026, full report (clean energy about USD 2.2 trillion and fossil fuels about USD 1.2 trillion in search summaries). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4IEA (ed.), Energy and AI (World Energy Outlook Special Report). International Energy Agency, Paris, April 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
47US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026 (Brent about USD 91 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026; Middle East oil flows assumed constrained through the fourth quarter of 2026). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Oil Market Report, September 2026; flows through the strait of 7.6 mb/d in August, 2026 supply 100.7 mb/d and demand 102.5 mb/d, and taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), collective action on emergency oil stocks agreed on 11 March 2026 (400 million barrels, the largest release in the agency’s history), with export volumes through the strait below 10% of pre-conflict levels and pre-war flows of about 20 mb/d, taken from search-result summaries; the release itself is also noted in the opened minerals outlook [3]. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9ENTSO-E (ed.), 28 April 2025 Iberian blackout: final report of the expert panel (publication page; report dated 20 March 2026). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Global Energy 2026
Chapter 3

Systems and sectors at baseline

5 min read0 figures2 tables10 notesNR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

ENE · Energy

Growth in global energy demand

1.3%

8 EJ; 2% in 2024.

Reported2025IEA²

ENE · Electricity

Renewables share of generation

33.8%

Coal 33.0%.

Reported2025Ember⁷

CLI · Climate

Energy-related CO2 emissions

>38Gt

up about 0.4%; a new record.

Reported2025IEA²

FIN · Finance

Global energy investment

3.4USD trillion

estimate; USD 2.6 trillion in 2015.

Reported2026eIEA¹

HLT · Health

People without electricity

655million

and about 2.0 billion cook with polluting fuels.

Reported2024SDG 7⁸

SYS · Cross-system

Brent crude, fourth-quarter average (forecast)

91USD a barrel

EIA September outlook assumes Middle East flows stay constrained.

Scenario2026EIA⁴⁷

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through energy, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries energy risk into each domain.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
Domain	Posture at baseline	Coupling	Status
WAT	Pumping, treatment and desalination need power; hydropower and cooling depend on flows. Volumes of energy-sector water use are not consolidated here.	ENE ↔ WAT	Inferred EQL 2
ENE	Demand up 1.3%, electricity nearly 3%; solar led growth; renewables 33.8% of generation; fuel security under strain.	the core system	Reported EQL 5
FOO	Fertiliser and acid supply chains were hit by the Hormuz closure; cold chains and irrigation depend on power.	ENE → FOO	Reported EQL 3
HLT	655 million without electricity; about 2.0 billion cook with polluting fuels; heat raises cooling demand.	ENE → HLT	Reported EQL 4
BIO	Mining, hydropower and land for supply chains press on nature; the evidence is not consolidated here.	ENE → BIO	Expert input EQL 2
CLI	Energy CO2 at a record above 38 Gt; weather swings demand for heating and cooling.	ENE → CLI	Reported EQL 5
INF	Grids, pipelines, ports and shipping lanes carry the system; the Iberian blackout shows how voltage control failures cascade.	ENE ↔ INF	Reported EQL 4
FIN	USD 3.4 trillion of annual investment; price spikes and volatility from the 2026 fuel shock.	ENE → FIN	Reported EQL 4
DAT	Grid operators and regulators publish operational data; global coverage is uneven.	DAT → ENE	Expert input EQL 2
AIC	Data centres about 415 TWh in 2024, 945 TWh by 2030 in the base case; clusters concentrate load.	AIC → ENE	Reported EQL 4
MIN	Refining of energy minerals is concentrated; export controls have tripled in scope; copper deficit projected to 2035.	MIN → ENE	Reported EQL 4
TRD	Seaborne oil and LNG trade passes chokepoints; US LNG exports grow; sulphur, aluminium and helium were disrupted.	ENE ↔ TRD	Reported EQL 4

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on energy, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
Code	Sector	Baseline evidence	Exposure to watch	Evidence coverage
GS-00	Cross-system	energy couples every other system⁸³	fuel shock under heat	PARTIAL
GS-01	Water	pumping, cooling and hydropower depend on each other	drought and heat	THIN
GS-02	Energy	demand 1.3%, electricity nearly 3%²	fuel shock; grid stress	GOOD
GS-03	Food	fertiliser and sulphur supply disrupted³	fuel and acid price shock	PARTIAL
GS-04	Health	655 million without electricity⁸	cooling and clinic supply	GOOD
GS-05	Finance	USD 3.4 trillion of investment¹	price volatility	PARTIAL
GS-06	Development	2.0 billion cook with polluting fuels⁸	affordability of access	GOOD
GS-07	Climate	record energy CO2 above 38 Gt²	weather-driven demand	GOOD
GS-08	Disaster	blackout of 28 April 2025⁹	cascading outages	PARTIAL
GS-09	Infrastructure	grids, pipelines and ports carry the system¹	equipment lead times	THIN
GS-10	Cities	electrified heat and transport raise load	peak demand	THIN
GS-11	Biodiversity	mining and hydropower pressures	land and flow alteration	THIN
GS-12	Earth observation	weather and satellite data support operations	continuity of missions	THIN
GS-13	Cyber and digital	control systems of utilities³⁵	attacks on energy systems	THIN
GS-14	Policy	market design and security instruments³⁴	emergency measures	PARTIAL
GS-15	Science	strong energy-system modelling⁴³	grid and minerals data	PARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

2IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026 (revised version, May 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026: 2025 in review (generation, demand, solar, coal). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
1IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2026, launch presentation, Paris, 28 May 2026. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026 (estimates, with 2025 data). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 7 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
47US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026 (Brent about USD 91 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026; Middle East oil flows assumed constrained through the fourth quarter of 2026). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9ENTSO-E (ed.), 28 April 2025 Iberian blackout: final report of the expert panel (publication page; report dated 20 March 2026). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2024/1366 establishing a network code on cybersecurity aspects of cross-border electricity flows, Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024/1747 amending Regulations (EU) 2019/942 and (EU) 2019/943 on the electricity market design, Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Davis, S.J. et al., Net-zero emissions energy systems, Science 360(6396), eaas9793, 2018, cited from memory. American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Global Energy 2026
Chapter 4

Risks and capability

Four energy risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

4 min read0 figures1 table16 notesNR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS02-ENE-001
Seaborne oil and LNG chokepoint disruption
Driver
conflict-related closure or damage affecting Hormuz flows and Qatari LNG¹¹¹³
Exposure
importing economies, refiners, power systems burning gas or oil
Vulnerability
thin spare capacity; limited bypass routes
Capacity
emergency stocks; bypass pipelines; demand response¹²
Cascade
ENE → FIN, FOO, HLT
Horizon
1 to 3 years
InferredEQL 3RSK-GS02-INF-002
Power-system stability with high inverter-based supply
Driver
rapid change in the generation mix and voltage control gaps⁹
Exposure
synchronous grids and large cities
Vulnerability
uneven stabilisation capability; coordination gaps
Capacity
reactive power requirements; grid-forming equipment; operator coordination
Cascade
ENE → HLT, WAT, INF
Horizon
1 to 5 years
ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS02-MIN-003
Critical-mineral export controls and refining concentration
Driver
export controls and concentrated refining³
Exposure
batteries, grid equipment, magnets, solar supply chains
Vulnerability
single dominant refiners; thin stockpiles
Capacity
diversification projects; strategic stockpiles; recycling³
Cascade
MIN → ENE, INF
Horizon
1 to 10 years
InferredEQL 3RSK-GS02-AIC-004
Concentrated data-centre load on local grids
Driver
rapid growth of AI and digital services⁴
Exposure
local grids in a few clusters; nearly half of US capacity sits in five clusters⁴
Vulnerability
long lead times for connections and equipment
Capacity
flexible load; on-site supply; planning and tariffs
Cascade
AIC → ENE → FIN, HLT
Horizon
1 to 5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence for energy at the global level.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
Function	Level	Strongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigation	EXISTS	efficiency and reliability standards widespread; implementation uneven²⁴³⁶
Monitoring and observation	ADEQUATE	market and operational data strong in advanced grids; thin elsewhere⁷⁹
Early warning	EXISTS	weather-linked demand forecasts and grid alerts; fuel-market early warning is partial
Preparedness and planning	EXISTS	adequacy assessments published for several grids³⁰
Redundancy and reserves	DEMONSTRATED	record coordinated oil stock release in March 2026¹²
Response	DEMONSTRATED	emergency measures and demand response used in 2022 and 2026¹²
Continuity of critical services	EXISTS	priority supply for hospitals and water works in many systems; testing uneven
Recovery	DEMONSTRATED	Iberian system restored after the 2025 blackout; reasons studied in a final report⁹
Adaptation	EXISTS	storage, flexibility and diversified supply growing²⁷
Social protection	LISTED	energy support for poor households documented but not consolidated
Finance and insurance	EXISTS	investment of USD 3.4 trillion; public finance for minerals rising¹³
Institutional coordination	EXISTS	IEA collective action; network codes in the EU¹²³⁵
Technical infrastructure	EXISTS	grids ageing in places; equipment lead times a constraint²²
Workforce	LISTED	skills gaps reported across the energy sector²³
Research capacity	ADEQUATE	strong energy-system science; data access uneven⁴³
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

11UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Oil Market Report, September 2026; flows through the strait of 7.6 mb/d in August, 2026 supply 100.7 mb/d and demand 102.5 mb/d, and taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Gas Market Report, Q2-2026; Ras Laffan offline since early March 2026 and nearly a fifth of global LNG supply removed, taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), collective action on emergency oil stocks agreed on 11 March 2026 (400 million barrels, the largest release in the agency’s history), with export volumes through the strait below 10% of pre-conflict levels and pre-war flows of about 20 mb/d, taken from search-result summaries; the release itself is also noted in the opened minerals outlook [3]. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9ENTSO-E (ed.), 28 April 2025 Iberian blackout: final report of the expert panel (publication page; report dated 20 March 2026). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4IEA (ed.), Energy and AI (World Energy Outlook Special Report). International Energy Agency, Paris, April 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Energy Efficiency 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
36UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 50001:2018, Energy management systems: requirements with guidance for use. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026: 2025 in review (generation, demand, solar, coal). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30UNVERIFIED, not opened: NERC (ed.), Long-Term Reliability Assessment, 2025 edition, North American Electric Reliability Corporation, Atlanta, cited from memory. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026 (revised version, May 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
1IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2026, launch presentation, Paris, 28 May 2026. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026 (estimates, with 2025 data). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2024/1366 establishing a network code on cybersecurity aspects of cross-border electricity flows, Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Electricity Grids and Secure Energy Transitions. International Energy Agency, Paris, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), World Energy Employment 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Davis, S.J. et al., Net-zero emissions energy systems, Science 360(6396), eaas9793, 2018, cited from memory. American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Global Energy 2026
Chapter 5

Fuel supply shock under a hot, high-demand season

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

2 min read0 figures0 tables2 notesNR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-GS02-LNG-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline: the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers: a disruption to seaborne oil and LNG supply that coincides with a heat wave and high cooling demand in several importing regions
Analogues: 2022 energy crisis; the 2026 Hormuz disruption⁴⁷¹¹
Interventions: none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state: narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1
TRD → ENE
seaborne oil and LNG supply falls; spot prices rise
2022 · 2026
2
CLI → ENE
heat raises cooling demand while hydro and thermal output are limited
2022
3
ENE → INF
voltage and frequency control tighten; outage risk rises
2025
4
ENE → FOO
fuel and fertiliser costs reach farms and food prices
2022 · 2026
5
ENE → HLT
rationing and outages affect clinics, cooling and cold chains
2025
6
ENE → FIN
import bills and subsidies strain public budgets
2022

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-GS02-LNG-01 would travel through Global Energy’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

Step	What happens	Source
01 Trade to energy	Seaborne oil and LNG supply falls; spot prices rise. Analogue or source: 2022 · 2026.	Edition GS-02, scenario SCN-GS02-LNG-01, step 1
02 Climate to energy	Heat raises cooling demand while hydro and thermal output are limited. Analogue or source: 2022.	Edition GS-02, scenario SCN-GS02-LNG-01, step 2
03 Energy to infrastructure	Voltage and frequency control tighten; outage risk rises. Analogue or source: 2025.	Edition GS-02, scenario SCN-GS02-LNG-01, step 3
04 Energy to food	Fuel and fertiliser costs reach farms and food prices. Analogue or source: 2022 · 2026.	Edition GS-02, scenario SCN-GS02-LNG-01, step 4
05 Energy to health	Rationing and outages affect clinics, cooling and cold chains. Analogue or source: 2025.	Edition GS-02, scenario SCN-GS02-LNG-01, step 5
06 Energy to finance	Import bills and subsidies strain public budgets. Analogue or source: 2022.	Edition GS-02, scenario SCN-GS02-LNG-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Global Energy 2026, scenario SCN-GS02-LNG-01 (2026); Global Energy 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

47US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026 (Brent about USD 91 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026; Middle East oil flows assumed constrained through the fourth quarter of 2026). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Oil Market Report, September 2026; flows through the strait of 7.6 mb/d in August, 2026 supply 100.7 mb/d and demand 102.5 mb/d, and taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Global Energy 2026
Chapter 6

Readings from the other desks

The energy baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.

15 min read0 figures8 tables43 notesNR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

Desk	Edition	State
GCRI Systems Evidence	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
GRF Public Deliberation	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
GRA Capital Readiness	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
Standards Progress	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
Academy Capability	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
Index Measurement	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports reading energy as the coupling layer of the WEFH+B system. Demand and electrification are rising, supply is changing fastest at the margin, and security of supply is the sharpest pressure. Evidence is strongest for demand and generation, and weakest for grid constraints and energy-sector water use.

ENE-001 · ENE-003 · GOV-008 · SYS-012

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people energy risk arrives as a power cut, a higher bill or a cooking fire. The baseline asks that public debate treat energy as shared infrastructure for health, food and water, and keep the 655 million without electricity in view alongside the security story.

HLT-007 · GOV-008 · ENE-001

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Investment is high, price volatility has risen and public finance for minerals is growing¹³. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.

FIN-005 · MIN-010

NEXUS

Synthesis

The energy system is well measured at the level of demand and generation and thinly measured at the level of equipment, constraints and water. The 2027 programme should bind regional grid evidence, test the fuel shock under heat, and map mineral chokepoints before they become delays.

SYS-012 · E-01 · E-04

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for energy. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

Table 6.1The quarterly rhythm every edition follows
Quarter	Edition	Question	Boundary
Q1	State and Agenda	What matters this year, and what is the starting position?	observed baseline stays distinct from planned work
Q2	Evidence and Build	What new evidence and capability exist?	a configured capability is not a validated result
Q3	Stress Test and Readiness	What do scenarios and tests show?	simulated loss or performance is not observed impact
Q4	Annual Synthesis and Renewal	What changed in the year, and what renews?	release follows review, not event publicity deadlines

Table 6.2Who contributes what each quarter
Steward or body	Role	Contribution route
GCRI Canada	Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T)	science and practice communities · GCRI gateway
The Global Risks Forum (GRF)	leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M)	policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway
The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)	finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F)	finance and insurance · GRA gateway
Nexus Standards	preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods	Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI
Risk Academy	learning pathways tied to the agenda questions	Academy gateway · learning by review
Reports sector desks	energy chapter inputs: GCRI evidence, GRA readiness, NXS standards, RA capability	sector editorial board

Standards drafts used in this edition

Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech

Standards calendar to watch

Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

Every energy shock this decade has been a water event, a food event and a health event at once. Treating energy as a utility market understates how it carries risk between systems. This edition asks where an energy shock goes next.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

Energy is a coupling, not a sector

The 2026 disruption began in oil and LNG and reached aluminium, sulphur and helium within weeks. Security of supply now spans fuels, minerals and equipment. Measuring the whole chain is the first adaptation.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

Security is wider than oil

Electricity grew more than twice as fast as energy demand. Risk moves with it: from fuel tankers to voltage control, equipment queues and data-centre clusters. The Iberian blackout is an early lesson, not a verdict on any technology.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

Electrification moves the risk to the grid

The 655 million without electricity and the 2.0 billion cooking with polluting fuels sit outside most security debates. Closing the gaps is not separate from resilience; it is part of it.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

Access is the unfinished half

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 energy readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Table 6.32027 energy readiness pack
Item	Register	State at baseline	First 2027 entry
E1	Energy risk state delta	baseline set by this edition	changes against the baseline
E2	WEFH+B state delta	five global system readings set	indicator updates and freshness
E3	Agenda and Portfolio movement	eight agenda items · 6 proposed objects	admission decisions
E4	Federation delivery register	national chapters in preparation	national chapters
E5	Consortium capability register	national consortia forming	first contributions
E6	Leadership questions and challenges	none yet	first challenge log
E7	Foundry technical state	national environments prepared	first federation cut
E8	Publication candidates	twelve findings carried forward	PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions
E9	Universe readiness	one candidate mission	admission and role spine
E10	Correction register	none	first federation-wide cycle

Publication dispositions

Publish
Hold
Needs evidence
Restricted
Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

IN FORCE
ADOPTED
PUBLISHED · GUIDANCE
PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

Table 6.4Standards and regulatory watch
Instrument	Body	Scope	Status	Relevance
Global Stocktake decision (tripling renewables, transition away from fossil fuels)²⁰	UNFCCC	global	ADOPTED 2023	targets
Critical Raw Materials Act³³	European Union	EU	IN FORCE	minerals
Electricity market design regulation³⁴	European Union	EU	IN FORCE	markets
Network code on electricity cybersecurity³⁵	European Union	EU	IN FORCE	cyber
ISO 50001 energy management³⁶	ISO	global	PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY	efficiency
IEC 62443 control-system security³⁷	IEC	global	PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY	cyber
IEA collective action on emergency oil stocks¹²	IEA members	32 members	USED MARCH 2026	oil security

Changed since 2024

The IEA made its largest-ever coordinated oil stock release in March 2026¹²
Chinese export controls on rare earths were expanded and then suspended until November 2026³
The ENTSO-E final report on the Iberian blackout was published on 20 March 2026⁹

To watch in 2027

Expiry or renewal of the suspension of expanded Chinese rare-earth controls in November 2026³
Implementation of the EU network code on cybersecurity³⁵
National plans to track the global tripling of renewables²⁰²⁸

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers energy assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.

Review protocol

Question: What does the published evidence establish about the world’s energy system and its couplings?
Sources searched: agency flagships; regulator and operator reports; peer-reviewed energy-system literature; statistics
Window: releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
Selection: sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
Next step: systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027

Table 6.5Peer-reviewed science and assessments
Reference	Type	Year	Role	Used for
Davis et al.⁴³	journal article	2018	framework	hard-to-decarbonise sectors
Creutzig et al.⁴⁴	journal article	2018	context	demand-side options
Ueckerdt et al.⁴⁵	journal article	2021	context	electro-fuels
Zscheischler et al.⁴⁶	journal article	2018	framework	compound events
IPCC AR6 Working Group III¹⁹	assessment	2022	context	mitigation pathways
Net Zero Roadmap, 2023 update²¹	assessment	2023	context	pathway benchmark
UNEP Emissions Gap Report³¹	assessment	2025	context	emissions trajectory
Production Gap Report³²	assessment	2023	context	fossil supply plans

Table 6.6Institutional flagships
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Global Energy Review 2026²	IEA	2026	supports	demand, emissions
World Energy Investment 2026¹	IEA	2026	supports	investment
Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026³	IEA	2026	supports	minerals
Energy and AI⁴	IEA	2025	supports	data centres
World Energy Outlook 2025⁶	IEA	2025	context	scenarios
Renewables 2025³⁹	IEA	2025	context	capacity outlook
Global Hydrogen Review 2025⁴⁰	IEA	2025	context	low-emissions fuels
Global Methane Tracker 2025⁴¹	IEA	2025	context	methane from energy
Energy Technology Perspectives 2024⁴²	IEA	2024	context	clean-tech supply chains

Table 6.7Statistics, access and markets
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
SDG Extended Report, Goal 7⁸	UN DESA	2026	supports	access
Global Electricity Review 2026⁷	Ember	2026	supports	generation
Statistical Review 2026¹⁵	Energy Institute	2026	context	primary energy
Renewable capacity statistics¹⁴	IRENA	2026	context	capacity
Short-Term Energy Outlook⁴⁷	EIA	2026	supports	prices and flows
Electricity Mid-Year Update 2026¹⁶	IEA	2026	context	demand outlook
World Energy Transitions Outlook 2024²⁷	IRENA	2024	context	transition pathway

Table 6.8Minerals, grids, investment and standards
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Iberian blackout final report⁹	ENTSO-E	2026	supports	grid failure
Electricity Grids and Secure Energy Transitions²²	IEA	2023	context	grid needs
Long-Term Reliability Assessment³⁰	NERC	2025	context	adequacy
Gas Market Report⁵¹³	IEA	2025 to 2026	supports	LNG
Oil Market Report¹¹	IEA	2026	supports	oil flows
Critical Raw Materials Act³³	European Union	2024	context	minerals policy
US data centre energy report¹⁸	Berkeley Lab	2024	context	load growth
Oil 2025²⁵ and Electricity 2025²⁶	IEA	2025	context	outlooks
Nuclear power estimates to 2050²⁹	IAEA	2025	context	nuclear
Climate Resilience for Energy Security³⁸	IEA	2022	context	resilience

Where the evidence agrees

Solar is the largest single source of growth in supply²⁷
Electricity demand grows faster than energy demand²⁶
Refining of key minerals is concentrated³

Where it is unsettled

How fast data-centre demand grows after 2030⁴
How long the 2026 fuel disruption lasts⁴⁷¹¹
How much generation and capacity were added in 2025: the IEA, Ember and IRENA series differ by method²⁷¹⁴

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2026, launch presentation, Paris, 28 May 2026. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026 (estimates, with 2025 data). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNFCCC (ed.), Outcome of the first global stocktake, decision 1/CMA.5 (December 2023; tripling renewable capacity and transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems), cited from memory. UNFCCC, Bonn. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024/1252 establishing a framework for a secure and sustainable supply of critical raw materials (Critical Raw Materials Act), Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024/1747 amending Regulations (EU) 2019/942 and (EU) 2019/943 on the electricity market design, Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2024/1366 establishing a network code on cybersecurity aspects of cross-border electricity flows, Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
36UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 50001:2018, Energy management systems: requirements with guidance for use. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
37UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEC 62443 series, Security for industrial automation and control systems. International Electrotechnical Commission, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), collective action on emergency oil stocks agreed on 11 March 2026 (400 million barrels, the largest release in the agency’s history), with export volumes through the strait below 10% of pre-conflict levels and pre-war flows of about 20 mb/d, taken from search-result summaries; the release itself is also noted in the opened minerals outlook [3]. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9ENTSO-E (ed.), 28 April 2025 Iberian blackout: final report of the expert panel (publication page; report dated 20 March 2026). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28UNVERIFIED, not opened: IRENA (ed.), Tracking COP28 outcomes: tripling renewable power capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Davis, S.J. et al., Net-zero emissions energy systems, Science 360(6396), eaas9793, 2018, cited from memory. American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Creutzig, F. et al., Towards demand-side solutions for mitigating climate change, Nature Climate Change 8, 260 to 263, 2018, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ueckerdt, F. et al., Potential and risks of hydrogen-based e-fuels in climate change mitigation, Nature Climate Change 11, 384 to 393, 2021, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Zscheischler, J. et al., Future climate risk from compound events, Nature Climate Change 8, 469 to 477, 2018, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19UNVERIFIED, not opened: Shukla, P.R. et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report. IPCC, Geneva, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Net Zero Roadmap: A Global Pathway to Keep the 1.5 °C Goal in Reach, 2023 update. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2025. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
32UNVERIFIED, not opened: SEI, Climate Analytics, E3G, IISD and UNEP (eds.), The Production Gap Report 2023. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026 (revised version, May 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4IEA (ed.), Energy and AI (World Energy Outlook Special Report). International Energy Agency, Paris, April 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6IEA (ed.), World Energy Outlook 2025, launch presentation, Paris, 12 November 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
39UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Renewables 2025: Analysis and forecasts to 2030. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
40UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global Hydrogen Review 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
41UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global Methane Tracker 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
42UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Energy Technology Perspectives 2024. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 7 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026: 2025 in review (generation, demand, solar, coal). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15UNVERIFIED, not opened: Energy Institute (ed.), Statistical Review of World Energy 2026 (75th edition; fossil fuels about 86% of primary energy, hydropower 2.7%, electricity demand up 3%); values taken from a trade-press summary that was opened, not from the Review. Energy Institute, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14UNVERIFIED, not opened: IRENA (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026 (about 692 GW added in 2025; 5,149 GW total), taken from search-result summaries; the page returned an access error. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
47US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026 (Brent about USD 91 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026; Middle East oil flows assumed constrained through the fourth quarter of 2026). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Electricity Mid-Year Update 2026 (23 July 2026; demand growth 3.6% in 2026 and 3.8% in 2027 in search summaries); no figure from it is used in a finding. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27UNVERIFIED, not opened: IRENA (ed.), World Energy Transitions Outlook 2024. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Electricity Grids and Secure Energy Transitions. International Energy Agency, Paris, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30UNVERIFIED, not opened: NERC (ed.), Long-Term Reliability Assessment, 2025 edition, North American Electric Reliability Corporation, Atlanta, cited from memory. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5IEA (ed.), Gas 2025: Analysis and forecasts to 2030 (Gas Market Report, Q4-2025). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Gas Market Report, Q2-2026; Ras Laffan offline since early March 2026 and nearly a fifth of global LNG supply removed, taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Oil Market Report, September 2026; flows through the strait of 7.6 mb/d in August, 2026 supply 100.7 mb/d and demand 102.5 mb/d, and taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18UNVERIFIED, not opened: Shehabi, A. et al., 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, December 2024; the page returned an access error and no figure is used. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Oil 2025: Analysis and forecast to 2030. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Electricity 2025: Analysis and forecast to 2027. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29UNVERIFIED, not opened: IAEA (ed.), Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050, 2025 edition. International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
38UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Climate Resilience for Energy Security. International Energy Agency, Paris, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Global Energy 2026
Chapter 7

The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 energy agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 energy edition.

5 min read0 figures6 tables4 notesNR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

7.1Questions for the operational series

E-01
How would a fuel supply shock that coincides with a hot season and grid stress travel through power, food and health at once?
INI-GS02-FSH-01 · fuel shock under heat; first output: concurrency analysis for six regions.
E-02
Where do grid equipment and interconnection constraints limit the connection of new supply and load?
INI-GS02-GRD-02 · grid constraints; first output: constraint register by region.
E-03
How much water do energy supply and data centres need by 2030, and where?
INI-GS02-WEN-03 · water for energy and compute; first output: regional demand estimates.
E-04
Which critical minerals and refining steps are single points of failure for power equipment?
INI-GS02-MIN-04 · mineral chokepoints; first output: dependence map.
E-05
Where do energy access gaps coincide with weak service quality, and what is the cost of closing them?
INI-GS02-ACC-05 · access and service quality; first output: service-tier table.
E-06
Which shared grids and fuel routes lack operational contingency arrangements?
To be admitted in 2027; first output: arrangement overlay.
E-07
How do heat waves change peak demand and supply together?
To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.
E-08
Which energy capabilities have been tested in real shortfalls, and which are only planned?
Energy capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 energy portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
ID	Object	Kind	Question	State
INI-GS02-FSH-01	Fuel shock under heat	Initiative	E-01	PROPOSED
INI-GS02-GRD-02	Grid and interconnection constraints	Initiative	E-02	PROPOSED
INI-GS02-WEN-03	Water for energy and compute	Initiative	E-03	PROPOSED
INI-GS02-MIN-04	Mineral chokepoints	Initiative	E-04	PROPOSED
INI-GS02-ACC-05	Access and service quality	Initiative	E-05	PROPOSED
MSN-GS02-2027-01	Fuel shock under heat Universe mission	Mission	E-01	Candidate

7.3The pathway

The energy edition reads national energy chapters, regional grid and fuel evidence and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed; the Canada and global energy chapters are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

01
National energy chapters
energy system of each national edition
DRAFTED · further national baselines
02
Grid and fuel evidence
shared grids, pipelines and sea routes
PLANNED · regional Baseline Editions
03
Energy sector model
the global energy system of systems
v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence
04
Global and strategic links
GLB · SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems · SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
PLANNED · strategic baselines
05
Universe
annual proving environment
CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027
06
Global Energy Report
this series
BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition
07
Evidence and correction
one graph, many projections
OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the energy candidate mission

01
Mandate
02
Core Build · 1 month
03
Action · 1 week
04
Evidence seal
05
Portfolio correction
06
Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027: evidence pack for the energy candidate mission
Item	Record	State	Timing
F1	Annual mandate record	PLANNED	after the Q2 2027 alignment
F2	Core Build record	PLANNED	one month before the exercise
F3	Exercise evidence	PLANNED	during the Action week
F4	Decision packets	PLANNED	exercise state only
F5	Proof receipts	PLANNED	scoped to each recorded check
F6	After-action report	PLANNED	within one quarter
F7	Upgrade docket	PLANNED	routed to the Portfolio
F8	Portfolio renewal	PLANNED	2027 global annual edition
F9	Public synthesis	PLANNED	public-safe extracts only

Mission

ID: MSN-GS02-2027-01 · Fuel shock under heat Universe mission
Role spine: Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways
Receiving actors: to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
Finding	Routed to	Purpose	Class
ENE-001 · demand	public record	reference for the 2027 series	PUBLIC
ENE-003 · electricity	INI-GS02-GRD-02	grid constraints	PUBLIC
AIC-006 · data centres	INI-GS02-WEN-03	water for energy and compute	PUBLIC
HLT-007 · access	INI-GS02-ACC-05	access and service quality	PUBLIC
GOV-008 · fuel flows	INI-GS02-FSH-01 · key F review	fuel shock under heat	PUBLIC
MIN-010 · minerals	INI-GS02-MIN-04	mineral chokepoints	PUBLIC
INF-011 · grid failure	regional consortia	grid constraint overlay	PUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathway	MSN-GS02-2027-01	Universe candidate	CONSORTIUM

Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
Class	Where it goes	Who can see it
PUBLIC	the published edition and its evidence bundle	anyone
CONSORTIUM	governed rooms of the federation	consortium members under agreement
CONTROLLED	need-to-know channels	named competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from 2027
Feed	Producer	Latency	Feeds into
Electricity data and the Global Electricity Review	Ember	annual	ENE-003
Oil and gas market reports	IEA	monthly and quarterly	GOV-008
Short-Term Energy Outlook	US Energy Information Administration	monthly	GOV-008
Transparency platform for the continental grid	ENTSO-E	hourly	INF-011
Critical minerals outlook	IEA	annual	MIN-010
SDG 7 tracking database	World Bank, IEA, IRENA, UNSD, WHO	annual	HLT-007
Renewable capacity statistics	IRENA	annual	ENE-002

Escalation routes

none · keep monitoring
research question
project
risk object
annual publication
signal report

Table 7.6Signals at baseline
ID	Signal	Corroboration	Systems	Route
SIG-GS02-001	Oil flows through Hormuz fell from March 2026⁴⁷¹¹	CORROBORATED	ENE · FIN	research question E-01
SIG-GS02-002	Mineral export controls tripled in scope since 2023³	CORROBORATED	MIN · ENE	initiative E-04
SIG-GS02-003	Data-centre load growth in clusters⁴	PARTIAL	AIC · ENE	research question E-03

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

47US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026 (Brent about USD 91 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026; Middle East oil flows assumed constrained through the fourth quarter of 2026). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Oil Market Report, September 2026; flows through the strait of 7.6 mb/d in August, 2026 supply 100.7 mb/d and demand 102.5 mb/d, and taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4IEA (ed.), Energy and AI (World Energy Outlook Special Report). International Energy Agency, Paris, April 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Global Energy 2026
Chapter 8

Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

7 min read0 figures5 tables13 notesNR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

8.1Energy and water

Energy uses water and water uses energy. Hydropower and thermal cooling make power supply sensitive to drought and heat; pumping, treatment and desalination make water supply sensitive to power.

2025analogue

an early, strong monsoon cut coal power demand in India²

2.7%

hydropower share of primary energy, 2025¹⁵

415TWh

data-centre electricity, 2024⁴

Table 8.1State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Hydropower	output follows river flows; strong hydro and an early monsoon cut fossil generation in India in 2025	⁷²	Reported
Thermal cooling	curtailment risk in heat and low flows; volumes not consolidated here	²	Inferred
Water for compute	cooling demand rising; volumes not consolidated	⁴	Expert input
Energy for water	pumping, treatment and desalination add load	⁶	Inferred

Couplings

WAT → ENE hydro and cooling
ENE → WAT pumping and desalination
AIC → WAT data-centre cooling

Evidence to bind in 2027

energy-sector water use by region
hydro exposure to multi-year drought

Related editions

GLB Global Systems
GS-01 Water
GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
GS-04 Health and One Health
GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems
SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems

8.2Energy and food

Food depends on energy for fertiliser, irrigation, processing and cold chains. The 2026 Hormuz disruption showed that the link runs through sulphur and acid as well as fuel.

≈25%

of global sulphur supplied from the Middle East³

50%

of seaborne sulphur trade passes through Hormuz³

2026analogue

China curbed sulphuric acid exports in May 2026³

Table 8.2State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Fertiliser inputs	sulphur and sulphuric acid supply disrupted; Chinese acid export curbs from May 2026	³	Reported
Fuel costs	higher oil and gas prices pass through to farms	⁴⁷	Inferred
Cold chains	depend on reliable power; no consolidated series here	⁸	Expert input
Bioenergy	competes with food for land	⁶	Inferred

Couplings

ENE → FOO fuel and fertiliser
MIN → FOO acid and sulphur
TRD → ENE → FOO price transmission

Evidence to bind in 2027

fertiliser price pass-through by region
cold-chain power reliability

Related editions

GLB Global Systems
GS-01 Water
GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
GS-04 Health and One Health
GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems
SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems

8.3Energy and health

Energy access shapes health: clean cooking, clinic power, cooling and refrigeration. Outages and heat make the link visible.

655million

without electricity, 2024⁸

2.0billion

cooking with polluting fuels, 2024⁸

449million

served by off-grid solar tiers 1 and 2⁸

Table 8.3State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Electricity access	92% of people; 86% of the unserved are in Sub-Saharan Africa	⁸	Reported
Clean cooking	75% have access; 1.8 billion projected to lack it in 2030	⁸	Reported
Cooling demand	lower cooling demand cut growth in 2025 in India and Southeast Asia	²	Reported
Clinic power	not consolidated here	⁸	Expert input

Couplings

ENE → HLT access and cooking
CLI → ENE → HLT heat and outage
AIC → ENE → HLT local grid load

Evidence to bind in 2027

power reliability in health facilities
heat-wave effects on supply

Related editions

GLB Global Systems
GS-01 Water
GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
GS-04 Health and One Health
GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems
SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems

8.4Energy and nature

Energy transitions need minerals, land and water, and energy emissions still press on climate. Nature is the unmeasured side of the energy ledger in this edition.

>38Gt

energy-related CO2, 2025²

3Gt

CO2 avoided each year by clean technology since 2019²

35EJ

fossil demand avoided in 2025 by clean technology²

Table 8.4State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Emissions	record above 38 Gt in 2025, up about 0.4%	²	Reported
Mining	copper, lithium, cobalt and rare-earth supply growing; effects on land and water not consolidated	³	Expert input
Hydropower	alters river flows; not consolidated here	¹⁵	Inferred
Mitigation pathways	assessed in the IPCC literature	¹⁹	Inferred

Couplings

ENE → BIO mining and land
ENE → CLI emissions
MIN → BIO extraction

Evidence to bind in 2027

ecosystem effects of mineral extraction
land use of energy supply

Related editions

GLB Global Systems
GS-01 Water
GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
GS-04 Health and One Health
GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems
SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems

8.5Energy security, grids and extremes

Security of supply now spans fuels, minerals and grids. Chokepoints, concentrated refining and voltage control failures are the three channels the 2025 and 2026 evidence shows.

<10%

of pre-conflict Hormuz export volume at the low point, March 2026¹²

72%

average top-refiner share, key minerals, 2025³

20March 2026

ENTSO-E final report on the Iberian blackout⁹

Table 8.5State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Fuel chokepoints	Hormuz flows cut from March 2026; EIA assumes constraint through the fourth quarter	⁴⁷¹¹	Reported
LNG	Ras Laffan offline since early March 2026	¹³	Reported
Minerals	refining concentration rising; export controls tripled in scope	³	Reported
Grid stability	blackout from interacting factors	⁹	Reported

Couplings

TRD → ENE chokepoints
MIN → ENE equipment
INF → ENE grid stability

Evidence to bind in 2027

fuel-market position after evidence close
grid equipment lead times

Related editions

GLB Global Systems
GS-01 Water
GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
GS-04 Health and One Health
GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems
SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

2IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026 (revised version, May 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15UNVERIFIED, not opened: Energy Institute (ed.), Statistical Review of World Energy 2026 (75th edition; fossil fuels about 86% of primary energy, hydropower 2.7%, electricity demand up 3%); values taken from a trade-press summary that was opened, not from the Review. Energy Institute, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4IEA (ed.), Energy and AI (World Energy Outlook Special Report). International Energy Agency, Paris, April 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026: 2025 in review (generation, demand, solar, coal). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6IEA (ed.), World Energy Outlook 2025, launch presentation, Paris, 12 November 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
47US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026 (Brent about USD 91 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026; Middle East oil flows assumed constrained through the fourth quarter of 2026). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 7 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19UNVERIFIED, not opened: Shukla, P.R. et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report. IPCC, Geneva, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), collective action on emergency oil stocks agreed on 11 March 2026 (400 million barrels, the largest release in the agency’s history), with export volumes through the strait below 10% of pre-conflict levels and pre-war flows of about 20 mb/d, taken from search-result summaries; the release itself is also noted in the opened minerals outlook [3]. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9ENTSO-E (ed.), 28 April 2025 Iberian blackout: final report of the expert panel (publication page; report dated 20 March 2026). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Oil Market Report, September 2026; flows through the strait of 7.6 mb/d in August, 2026 supply 100.7 mb/d and demand 102.5 mb/d, and taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Gas Market Report, Q2-2026; Ras Laffan offline since early March 2026 and nearly a fifth of global LNG supply removed, taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Global Energy 2026
Annex A

Methodology

How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

12 min read0 figures13 tables14 notesNR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

A.1Methods

The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

Table A.1Methods
No.	Derivation	Calculation	Result
(1)	Electricity growth against energy growth, 2025	≈3 ÷ 1.3	≈2.3 times
(2)	Share of 2025 growth in energy demand from solar (lower bound)	reported as more than 25%	more than 25%
(3)	Renewables lead over coal in generation, 2025	10,730 − 10,476 TWh	254 TWh
(4)	Growth in data-centre electricity, 2024 to 2030, base case	945 ÷ 415	≈2.3 times

Table A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
Strength	Definition
STRONG	a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season, in more than one region
MODERATE	an effect is documented but buffered or slower
WEAK	an effect is plausible but not documented at global scale

Table A.3Status grammar
Label	Rule
Reported	value as issued by its source, with year
Inferred	reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement
Estimated	Nexus analytical value with stated method
Scenario	conditional on stated assumptions
Expert input	structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence

A.2Model card, Energy Sector Model v0

Model ID: MDL-GS02-ENERGY · v0.1
Purpose: represent the global energy system and its couplings to water, food, health and biodiversity
Family: graph-based system of systems
Inputs: the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
Method: expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events
Validation: none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027
Uncertainty: qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
Domain of validity: global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use
Reproducibility: strength table and sources published in this edition

20couplings

typed in v0

4strong

documented within one season

7moderate

documented, buffered

9weak

plausible, undocumented

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID: DC-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-B0
Type: baseline documentary cut
Resolution policy: pinned · as of 30 September 2026
Sources pinned: 47 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references
Model runs: none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
Digest: computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
Supersedes: nothing, first cut of the series
Superseded by: the 2027 energy annual cut

Lineage

01
source edition
02
pinned citation
03
finding
04
page
05
publication record

Table A.4From the baseline cut to the federation cut
Element	Baseline 2026	2027 global annual
Sources	cited global publications, pinned by edition	national, regional and sector cuts through one graph
Analysis	stated methods and editorial estimates	typed analysis specifications
Models	Energy Sector Model v0 specification	model runs with receipts
Findings	twelve baseline findings	findings re-bound to federation evidence
Review	five passes scheduled	five passes on the exact digest

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

Table A.5Evidence age and coverage
Indicator	Observed	Released	Cadence	Next release
Energy demand and emissions	2025	May 2026 revised	annual	next Global Energy Review
Electricity generation shares	2025	2026	annual	next Electricity Review
Investment estimate	2026e	May 2026	annual	next investment report
Access to electricity and cooking	2024	2026	annual	next SDG 7 report
Data-centre electricity	2024	2025	one-off	next IEA update
Hormuz oil flows	2026	Sep 2026	monthly	monthly
LNG capacity and outage	2025 to 2026	Q4 2025 and Q2 2026	quarterly	next Gas Market Report
Critical minerals refining	2025	revised Jul 2026	annual	2027
Primary energy	2025	Jun 2026	annual	2027
Iberian blackout causes	2025	Mar 2026	one-off	follow-up reports

Table A.6Coverage by system at baseline
System	Coverage	Thinnest dimension
Demand and supply	GOOD	regional drivers of growth
Electricity	GOOD	grid-level constraints
Fuel markets	PARTIAL	position after evidence close
Minerals	GOOD	equipment-level dependence
Access	GOOD	service quality and affordability
Investment	PARTIAL	split by technology and region
Water for energy	THIN	volumes by region and technology
Resilience	PARTIAL	tested capabilities beyond oil stocks

Table A.7Designed empty states: what is not bound, what would fill it and why
Field	Source that would fill it	Blocker
Fuel-market position on 1 November 2026	IEA Oil Market Report for October and November 2026¹¹; EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook of November	releases after the evidence close and not retrieved; the EIA September outlook⁴⁷ is the baseline source; the October outlook¹⁰ is post-close, context only
Hormuz flow volumes before and during the conflict, from a primary document	IEA Oil Market Reports¹¹¹²	the report was not opened; only search summaries were read
Clean and fossil split of the 2026 investment estimate	IEA World Energy Investment 2026 full report¹⁷	report page not accessible; the launch presentation was opened without the split
Capacity added in 2025, on one basis	IEA, IRENA and Ember series²¹⁴⁷	the series use different methods; not reconciled in this edition
Transformer, cable and interconnection-queue constraints	IEA grids work²²; national operators	not retrieved; figures in memory are not used
Energy-sector water use by region	IEA and national statistics offices	no consolidated global series found at evidence close
Heat-wave effects on power systems in 2026	operator reports; weather services	not retrieved
Cyber and physical incidents on energy infrastructure	operators and national authorities	incident data are not published on a common basis
Winter gas storage at the start of the heating season	Gas Infrastructure Europe; operators	not retrieved
Energy support for poor households, by country	national ministries; World Bank	not consolidated; capability rung stays LISTED
Energy employment and skills gap	IEA World Energy Employment 2025²³	report not opened; no figure used
Data-centre electricity by country after 2024	IEA, national regulators, operators	later series use a different baseline; not mixed with the 415 TWh figure
Capability rungs beyond emergency stocks	operators, regulators, ministries	not reviewed

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Issued by the International Energy Agency (revised May 2026) from energy balances, market data and technology tracking. Annual. Role: binds ENE-001, ENE-002 and CLI-004.

EVD-GS02-001

IEA Global Energy Review 2026²

Compiled by UN DESA from custodian storylines as of 30 April 2026. Annual. Role: binds HLT-007 and the access tiles. Figures differ slightly from the main report text.

EVD-GS02-002

SDG 7 Extended Report 2026⁸

Table A.8Quality dimensions at baseline
Dimension	EVD-GS02-001	EVD-GS02-002
Completeness	all fuels and technologies; modelled where national data are missing	country coverage uneven; cooking estimate is a range
Timeliness	about 5 months after the year	about 16 months after the year
Revision	revised version issued May 2026	storylines updated up to the report date
Method transparency	methodology published	indicator metadata published
External validation	compared with national statistics	custodian review

Evidence cards to follow in 2027

Ember⁷: generation shares by country and sector
ENTSO-E⁹: data tables behind the final report
IEA critical minerals³: country shares by mineral
IEA Gas Market Report¹³: LNG outage duration

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

Table A.9Publication acceptance record
Group	Area	Items	Pass	N/A	Pending
D1	Identity and scope	8	8	0	0
D2	Source and data	12	9	1	2
D3	Analysis and models	12	3	8	1
D4	Findings and claims	9	8	0	1
D5	Figures, tables, maps	10	6	2	2
D6	Editorial and citations	10	8	0	2
D7	Review and approval	13	0	0	13
D8	Artefact and design	12	7	0	5
D9	Registry and release	9	0	0	9

Publication gate

Conditions met: 14 of 23 at evidence close
Blocking problems: none recorded
Open conditions: reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer

Not applicable at baseline

Model runs: first runs in Q1 2027
Maps: plates in Q2 2027
Waivers: none

A.7Status words

Table A.10The status every value carries
Status	What it means
Observed	Measured directly and published by the source.
Reported	Published statistics of an official or institutional source.
Declared	Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.
Estimated	A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.
Modelled	Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.
Inferred	Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.
Forecast	A projection by the cited source.
Simulated	A simulation result under stated assumptions.
Scenario	A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.
Expert input	Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.
Candidate	Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.
Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

Step	What happens	Source
01 Evidence arrives from the pillars	Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s.
02 The cut is sealed	On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.
03 The edition is assembled	The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.
04 The keys turn	At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.
05 The gate opens	A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.
06 Signed and deposited	The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.
07 Published on its desk’s site	Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part.
08 Corrections go to Standards	Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

Table A.11Series terms
Term	Meaning
Baseline Edition	the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series
WEFH+B	energy, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core
Coupling	a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another
Protection gap	the share of losses not covered by insurance
Capability ladder	LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED
EQL	evidence-quality level, 1–5
Evidence cut	a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions
NNC · NLC · NWG	National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups

Table A.12Abbreviations used in this edition
Abbreviation	Expansion
bcm	billion cubic metres
EJ	exajoule
ENTSO-E	European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity
GW	gigawatt
IEA	International Energy Agency
IRENA	International Renewable Energy Agency
LNG	liquefied natural gas
Mtpa	million tonnes per annum
SDG 7	Sustainable Development Goal 7: affordable and clean energy
STEO	Short-Term Energy Outlook
TWh	terawatt-hour
TFEC	total final energy consumption

A.10Technical annex

Table A.13Technical annex
Item	Annex	Contents	Status
A.1	Indicator definitions	the global indicator set, with units and sources	IN THIS EDITION
A.2	Coupling strengths	the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale	IN THIS EDITION
A.3	Scenario specification	SCN-GS02-LNG-01 assumptions and signposts	IN THIS EDITION
A.4	Capability placements	rung evidence for fifteen functions	IN THIS EDITION
A.5	Model diagnostics	first runs and validation	2027
A.6	Sensitivity analyses	influence of coupling strengths	2027
A.7	Grid and route notes	cards for the major shared grids and fuel routes	WITH REGIONAL EDITIONS
A.8	Review statements	pass-by-pass review record	AT RELEASE

A.1 · indicator definition: access to electricity

Construct: share and number of people living in households with access to electricity
Unit: share and number of people
Method: custodian indicator based on national surveys and models
Source: SDG 7 Extended Report 2026⁸
Uncertainty: modelled where survey data are missing
Known limits: binary measure; does not capture reliability, capacity or affordability

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

11UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Oil Market Report, September 2026; flows through the strait of 7.6 mb/d in August, 2026 supply 100.7 mb/d and demand 102.5 mb/d, and taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
47US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026 (Brent about USD 91 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026; Middle East oil flows assumed constrained through the fourth quarter of 2026). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10POST-CLOSE, context only: US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 (released 6 October 2026, after the 30 September evidence close; post-close, context only, supports no baseline claim). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), collective action on emergency oil stocks agreed on 11 March 2026 (400 million barrels, the largest release in the agency’s history), with export volumes through the strait below 10% of pre-conflict levels and pre-war flows of about 20 mb/d, taken from search-result summaries; the release itself is also noted in the opened minerals outlook [3]. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2026, full report (clean energy about USD 2.2 trillion and fossil fuels about USD 1.2 trillion in search summaries). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026 (revised version, May 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14UNVERIFIED, not opened: IRENA (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026 (about 692 GW added in 2025; 5,149 GW total), taken from search-result summaries; the page returned an access error. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026: 2025 in review (generation, demand, solar, coal). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Electricity Grids and Secure Energy Transitions. International Energy Agency, Paris, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), World Energy Employment 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 7 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9ENTSO-E (ed.), 28 April 2025 Iberian blackout: final report of the expert panel (publication page; report dated 20 March 2026). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Gas Market Report, Q2-2026; Ras Laffan offline since early March 2026 and nearly a fifth of global LNG supply removed, taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Global Energy 2026
Annex B

Data appendix

The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.

8 min read0 figures8 tables12 notesNR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

B.1The indicator set

Table B.1Global baseline indicator set
Indicator	Value	Unit	Year	State	Source
Growth in global energy demand	1.3	%	2025	Reported	²
Growth in electricity demand	≈3	%	2025	Reported	²
Growth in electricity demand (Ember)	2.8	%	2025	Reported	⁷
Solar generation	2,778	TWh	2025	Reported	⁷
Renewables share of generation	33.8	%	2025	Reported	⁷
Coal share of generation	33.0	%	2025	Reported	⁷
Fossil generation change	−38	TWh	2025	Reported	⁷
Renewable capacity added (IEA)	800	GW	2025	Reported	²
Battery storage added	≈110	GW	2025	Reported	²
Energy-related CO2	>38	Gt	2025	Reported	²
Global energy investment	3.4	USD trillion	2026e	Reported	¹
Electricity supply and infrastructure investment	1.6	USD trillion	2026e	Reported	¹
Data-centre electricity	415	TWh	2024	Reported	⁴
Data-centre electricity, base case	945	TWh	2030	Scenario	⁴
People without electricity	655	million	2024	Reported	⁸
People cooking with polluting fuels	2.0	billion	2024	Reported	⁸
Top refiner share, key minerals excluding rare earths	72	%	2025	Reported	³
Brent, fourth-quarter 2026 (forecast)	91	USD a barrel	2026	Scenario	⁴⁷

Indicators, CSV Indicators, JSON

B.2Global source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

Table B.3Global source register
Source	Category	Coverage	Period	Cadence	Role
IEA Global Energy Review 2026²	intergovernmental agency	global	2025	annual	demand, emissions
IEA World Energy Investment 2026¹	intergovernmental agency	global	2026e	annual	investment
IEA Critical Minerals Outlook 2026³	intergovernmental agency	global	2025	annual	minerals
IEA Energy and AI⁴	intergovernmental agency	global	2024	one-off	data centres
IEA Gas Market Report⁵	intergovernmental agency	global	2025	quarterly	gas, LNG
Ember Global Electricity Review⁷	think tank, open data	global	2025	annual	generation
SDG 7 Extended Report⁸	UN agencies	global	2024	annual	access
ENTSO-E blackout report⁹	operators’ association	Continental Europe	2025	one-off	grid failure
EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook⁴⁷	national statistics agency	US and global	2026	monthly	prices, flows
EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026¹⁰	national statistics agency	US and global	2026	monthly	post-close, context only
IRENA capacity statistics¹⁴	intergovernmental agency	global	2025	annual	capacity

B.3Regional reading: energy across ten clusters

Map plates follow with the regional Baseline Editions, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form and ranks no region.

Table B.4Regional reading: energy across ten clusters
Region	Principal hazards	Systems most exposed	Baseline evidence
North America	data-centre load; winter cold; gas-to-coal switching	power, gas, industry	US energy demand and coal use²
South America	hydropower dependence in dry years	power, cities	regional statistics (not bound)
Europe	gas import dependence; grid stability	power, heating, industry	blackout report⁹; solar and wind 30% of EU generation²
Eurasia	export flows and sanctions	gas, oil	IEA gas report⁵
Middle East and North Africa	Hormuz and LNG exposure	oil, gas, aluminium, sulphur	minerals outlook³; EIA⁴⁷
Africa	access gaps; clean cooking	households, health	SDG 7⁸
South Asia	import dependence; monsoon and heat	power, fertiliser	IEA Global Energy Review²
East Asia	LNG and oil import dependence; clean-tech supply	power, industry	critical minerals³
ASEAN	rising demand; LNG imports	power, cities	IEA gas report⁵
Oceania-Pacific	small island fuel imports; export minerals	power, ports	regional statistics (not bound)

B.4Grid card: Continental Europe synchronous area

grid
synchronous
interconnected
cross-border

Systems in view: power, heating, industry, cities
Defining events: blackout in Spain and Portugal on 28 April 2025⁹
Couplings: ENE → HLT outages; ENE → INF voltage; ENE → FIN prices
Capability evidence: restoration and a published expert final report⁹
Gaps: cross-border flow detail; reactive power coverage
Agenda items: E-01 · E-02

The final report names gaps in voltage and reactive power control and differences in practice across areas as interacting factors [9].

GRID

Voltage control

A synchronous grid shares its stability across borders, so a local failure can propagate.

SECURITY

Interdependence

The report is an expert analysis of causes and recommendations, not an attribution of liability [9].

LEARNING

Public final report

B.5How countries appear in the energy edition

Countries enter the energy edition through the energy chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never ranked.

Table B.5How countries appear in the energy edition
Card field	What it shows	Source
WEFH+B state	each core system against peer distribution bands	national edition
Couplings	the national dependency matrix	national edition
Risk objects	the national risk portfolio	national edition
Capability rungs	the national capability ladder	national edition
Evidence age	oldest and newest source dates	national source register

Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme

26national

countries and unions

10regional

clusters

16global

flagship and sector

14strategic

systems reports

20frontier

technology reports

How to read a country card

Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist
Couplings and risk objects come from the country’s own national edition
Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions
Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such

Table B.6National Baseline Editions in the 2026 programme
Wave	Countries and unions	State
W0	Canada	ISSUED
W1	United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, European Union, Switzerland	PLANNED
W2	Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Türkiye, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, South Africa, Senegal, Kenya, African Union, India, China, Republic of Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, Australia	PLANNED

B.6Licences

Table B.7Licences of each kind of material
Material	Licence
Text	CC BY 4.0
Data	on the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0
Figures	Nexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited
Maps	boundary source and licence printed on each plate
Metadata	CC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it
Third-party data, figures and text	The source’s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed
Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence.

B.7Formats and provenance

Table B.8This edition in every format
Format	Kind	State	What it is	Identifier
Web edition	HTML	On this site	Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source.	NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Print edition	PDF	At release	A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release.	NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Indicator data	CSV · JSON	On this site	18 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release.	NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE data release v1
Figures	SVG · PNG	On this site	4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder.	FIG-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-*
Slides	PDF	Not recorded	No slide deck is recorded for this edition.
Evidence brief	HTML · PDF	Not recorded	No evidence brief is recorded for this edition.
Dataset with DOI	DataCite	At release	Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.

Provenance

Edition pack: The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built
Evidence cut: DC-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026
Reproducibility: sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
Self-check: 14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release
Review: five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
Publisher of record: GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
Corrections: Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

2IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026 (revised version, May 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026: 2025 in review (generation, demand, solar, coal). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
1IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2026, launch presentation, Paris, 28 May 2026. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026 (estimates, with 2025 data). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4IEA (ed.), Energy and AI (World Energy Outlook Special Report). International Energy Agency, Paris, April 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 7 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
47US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026 (Brent about USD 91 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026; Middle East oil flows assumed constrained through the fourth quarter of 2026). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15UNVERIFIED, not opened: Energy Institute (ed.), Statistical Review of World Energy 2026 (75th edition; fossil fuels about 86% of primary energy, hydropower 2.7%, electricity demand up 3%); values taken from a trade-press summary that was opened, not from the Review. Energy Institute, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5IEA (ed.), Gas 2025: Analysis and forecasts to 2030 (Gas Market Report, Q4-2025). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9ENTSO-E (ed.), 28 April 2025 Iberian blackout: final report of the expert panel (publication page; report dated 20 March 2026). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10POST-CLOSE, context only: US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 (released 6 October 2026, after the 30 September evidence close; post-close, context only, supports no baseline claim). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14UNVERIFIED, not opened: IRENA (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026 (about 692 GW added in 2025; 5,149 GW total), taken from search-result summaries; the page returned an access error. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Global Energy 2026
Annex C

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

13 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

C.147 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2026, launch presentation, Paris, 28 May 2026. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026 (estimates, with 2025 data). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
2IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026 (revised version, May 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
3IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
4IEA (ed.), Energy and AI (World Energy Outlook Special Report). International Energy Agency, Paris, April 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
5IEA (ed.), Gas 2025: Analysis and forecasts to 2030 (Gas Market Report, Q4-2025). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
6IEA (ed.), World Energy Outlook 2025, launch presentation, Paris, 12 November 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
7Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026: 2025 in review (generation, demand, solar, coal). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
8UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 7 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
9ENTSO-E (ed.), 28 April 2025 Iberian blackout: final report of the expert panel (publication page; report dated 20 March 2026). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
10POST-CLOSE, context only: US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 (released 6 October 2026, after the 30 September evidence close; post-close, context only, supports no baseline claim). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
11UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Oil Market Report, September 2026; flows through the strait of 7.6 mb/d in August, 2026 supply 100.7 mb/d and demand 102.5 mb/d, and taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
12UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), collective action on emergency oil stocks agreed on 11 March 2026 (400 million barrels, the largest release in the agency’s history), with export volumes through the strait below 10% of pre-conflict levels and pre-war flows of about 20 mb/d, taken from search-result summaries; the release itself is also noted in the opened minerals outlook [3]. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
13UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Gas Market Report, Q2-2026; Ras Laffan offline since early March 2026 and nearly a fifth of global LNG supply removed, taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
14UNVERIFIED, not opened: IRENA (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026 (about 692 GW added in 2025; 5,149 GW total), taken from search-result summaries; the page returned an access error. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
15UNVERIFIED, not opened: Energy Institute (ed.), Statistical Review of World Energy 2026 (75th edition; fossil fuels about 86% of primary energy, hydropower 2.7%, electricity demand up 3%); values taken from a trade-press summary that was opened, not from the Review. Energy Institute, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
16UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Electricity Mid-Year Update 2026 (23 July 2026; demand growth 3.6% in 2026 and 3.8% in 2027 in search summaries); no figure from it is used in a finding. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
17UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2026, full report (clean energy about USD 2.2 trillion and fossil fuels about USD 1.2 trillion in search summaries). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2
18UNVERIFIED, not opened: Shehabi, A. et al., 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, December 2024; the page returned an access error and no figure is used. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
19UNVERIFIED, not opened: Shukla, P.R. et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report. IPCC, Geneva, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
20UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNFCCC (ed.), Outcome of the first global stocktake, decision 1/CMA.5 (December 2023; tripling renewable capacity and transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems), cited from memory. UNFCCC, Bonn. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
21UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Net Zero Roadmap: A Global Pathway to Keep the 1.5 °C Goal in Reach, 2023 update. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
22UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Electricity Grids and Secure Energy Transitions. International Energy Agency, Paris, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
23UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), World Energy Employment 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4
24UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Energy Efficiency 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4
25UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Oil 2025: Analysis and forecast to 2030. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
26UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Electricity 2025: Analysis and forecast to 2027. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
27UNVERIFIED, not opened: IRENA (ed.), World Energy Transitions Outlook 2024. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
28UNVERIFIED, not opened: IRENA (ed.), Tracking COP28 outcomes: tripling renewable power capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
29UNVERIFIED, not opened: IAEA (ed.), Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050, 2025 edition. International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
30UNVERIFIED, not opened: NERC (ed.), Long-Term Reliability Assessment, 2025 edition, North American Electric Reliability Corporation, Atlanta, cited from memory. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
31UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2025. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
32UNVERIFIED, not opened: SEI, Climate Analytics, E3G, IISD and UNEP (eds.), The Production Gap Report 2023. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024/1252 establishing a framework for a secure and sustainable supply of critical raw materials (Critical Raw Materials Act), Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024/1747 amending Regulations (EU) 2019/942 and (EU) 2019/943 on the electricity market design, Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2024/1366 establishing a network code on cybersecurity aspects of cross-border electricity flows, Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
36UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 50001:2018, Energy management systems: requirements with guidance for use. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
37UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEC 62443 series, Security for industrial automation and control systems. International Electrotechnical Commission, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
38UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Climate Resilience for Energy Security. International Energy Agency, Paris, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
39UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Renewables 2025: Analysis and forecasts to 2030. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
40UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global Hydrogen Review 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
41UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global Methane Tracker 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
42UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Energy Technology Perspectives 2024. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Davis, S.J. et al., Net-zero emissions energy systems, Science 360(6396), eaas9793, 2018, cited from memory. American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Creutzig, F. et al., Towards demand-side solutions for mitigating climate change, Nature Climate Change 8, 260 to 263, 2018, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ueckerdt, F. et al., Potential and risks of hydrogen-based e-fuels in climate change mitigation, Nature Climate Change 11, 384 to 393, 2021, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Zscheischler, J. et al., Future climate risk from compound events, Nature Climate Change 8, 469 to 477, 2018, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
47US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026 (Brent about USD 91 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026; Middle East oil flows assumed constrained through the fourth quarter of 2026). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title: Global Energy Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition
Series: Reports · Global Sector Series GS-02
Edition: Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version: v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID: NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close: 30 September 2026
Publication date: October 2026
DOI: concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place: Toronto
Editor: Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards: GCRI · technical truth · GRF · public meaning · GRA · capital meaning
Licence: text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Language: English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence: Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format: A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces: Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard: Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility: tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production: Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
Step	What happens	When
Draft	editorial self-check complete at evidence close	October 2026
Steward review	five passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)	Q4 2026
Approval	publication authority approves the exact digest	before release
Deposit	concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set	at release
Succession	the 2027 energy edition reports changes against this baseline	2027

Current version: v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition: none, first edition of the series
Next edition: NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0

Latest version: resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route: Registry correction pathway
Notice types: erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

Edition	Version	Date	State	Change	Notice
GS-02	NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0	October 2026	Draft	Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,	None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID: NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias: NR-SEC-GS-02-2026-BL
Collection: None
DOI: Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions: Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle: RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID: Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR: Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account: None needed to contribute; never a password

Find and follow

Search the open indexes for Global Energy; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
GS-02 edition Reports Global Energy 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; GS-02 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

Handoff	Between	What crosses, and when
F03	Foundry to Reports	Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04	Universe to Reports	After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05	Foundry to Reports	National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
Ring	Nexus Standards to Reports	Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06	Reports to Nexus Standards	Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12	Reports to Universe	Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
Ring	Reports to Risk Academy	Risk Academy: taught in the open.

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

S.3Headline finding

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

Technical Truth

Public Meaning

Capital Meaning

Synthesis

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

What it is not

What comes next

Notes

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

In this part

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

Transmission paths

1.4Reinforcing loops

Notes

2.1Headline finding

Implication

What would move it

2.2Energy

2.3Climate forcing

2.4Finance

2.5AIC

2.6Health

2.7Governance

2.8Minerals

2.9Infrastructure

2.10Systemic

Notes

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

Growth in global energy demand

Renewables share of generation

Energy-related CO2 emissions

Global energy investment

People without electricity

Brent crude, fourth-quarter average (forecast)

3.2Domain posture

3.3Sector screens

Notes

4.1Risk objects

Seaborne oil and LNG chokepoint disruption

Power-system stability with high inverter-based supply

Critical-mineral export controls and refining concentration

Concentrated data-centre load on local grids

4.2Capability ladder

Notes

5.1Assumptions

5.2The cascade, step by step

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

Notes

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

6.2Three lenses

Technical Truth

Public Meaning

Capital Meaning

Synthesis

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

Standards drafts used in this edition

Standards calendar to watch

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 energy readiness pack

Publication dispositions

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Changed since 2024

To watch in 2027

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

Review protocol

Where the evidence agrees

Where it is unsettled