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Fuel supply shock under a hot, high-demand season

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

2 min read0 figures0 tables2 notesNR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Energy is where the systems meet
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Fuel supply shock under a hot, high-demand season
    1. 5.1 Assumptions
    2. 5.2 The cascade, step by step
    3. 5.3 The scenario as a table of steps
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-GS02-LNG-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline
the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers
a disruption to seaborne oil and LNG supply that coincides with a heat wave and high cooling demand in several importing regions
Analogues
2022 energy crisis; the 2026 Hormuz disruption4711
Interventions
none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state
narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

  1. 1

    TRD → ENE

    seaborne oil and LNG supply falls; spot prices rise

    2022 · 2026

  2. 2

    CLI → ENE

    heat raises cooling demand while hydro and thermal output are limited

    2022

  3. 3

    ENE → INF

    voltage and frequency control tighten; outage risk rises

    2025

  4. 4

    ENE → FOO

    fuel and fertiliser costs reach farms and food prices

    2022 · 2026

  5. 5

    ENE → HLT

    rationing and outages affect clinics, cooling and cold chains

    2025

  6. 6

    ENE → FIN

    import bills and subsidies strain public budgets

    2022

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-GS02-LNG-01 would travel through Global Energy’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

StepWhat happensSource
01 Trade to energySeaborne oil and LNG supply falls; spot prices rise. Analogue or source: 2022 · 2026.Edition GS-02, scenario SCN-GS02-LNG-01, step 1
02 Climate to energyHeat raises cooling demand while hydro and thermal output are limited. Analogue or source: 2022.Edition GS-02, scenario SCN-GS02-LNG-01, step 2
03 Energy to infrastructureVoltage and frequency control tighten; outage risk rises. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition GS-02, scenario SCN-GS02-LNG-01, step 3
04 Energy to foodFuel and fertiliser costs reach farms and food prices. Analogue or source: 2022 · 2026.Edition GS-02, scenario SCN-GS02-LNG-01, step 4
05 Energy to healthRationing and outages affect clinics, cooling and cold chains. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition GS-02, scenario SCN-GS02-LNG-01, step 5
06 Energy to financeImport bills and subsidies strain public budgets. Analogue or source: 2022.Edition GS-02, scenario SCN-GS02-LNG-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Global Energy 2026, scenario SCN-GS02-LNG-01 (2026); Global Energy 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 47US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026 (Brent about USD 91 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026; Middle East oil flows assumed constrained through the fourth quarter of 2026). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 11UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Oil Market Report, September 2026; flows through the strait of 7.6 mb/d in August, 2026 supply 100.7 mb/d and demand 102.5 mb/d, and taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 5: Fuel supply shock under a hot, high-demand season. In Global Energy Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Energy System. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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The sectors behind Global Energy.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

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Energy and its partners

Energy gives power for transport and telecoms to infrastructure (0.8), pumping and treatment to water (0.5) and fertiliser, machinery and cold chains to food (0.5).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Energy → Infrastructure · power for transport and telecoms0.8
  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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