Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Resilience Investment and National Portfolios

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the resilience investment baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

1. Energy investment is estimated at USD 3.4 trillion in 2026; adaptation finance is a small part of climate finance.¹⁶

   Is resilience investment growing?Reported

2. Grades are mixed: C overall in the 2025 US report card.²

   Is the physical base sound?Reported

3. About USD 224 billion overall in 2025, about USD 108 billion insured.³⁴

   How large are the losses?Reported

4. Cat bonds stand at USD 61.3 billion; most losses in emerging economies are uninsured.⁵⁴

   How much risk is transferred?Reported

5. USD 215 to 387 billion a year to 2030, against USD 65 billion tracked in 2023.⁶⁷

   What do adaptation needs look like?Reported

6. About half of the pledges to the loss and damage fund had been received by September 2025.⁸

   Does recovery money move fast?Reported

7. No: units, periods and scopes differ.^16191518

   Do national portfolios agree on a basis?Reported

8. The share of national portfolios that funds upkeep and adaptation. SCN-SR14-PRT-01

   What will 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-INVESTMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEV-007

Developing countries’ adaptation finance needs are put at USD 215 to 387 billion a year to 2030, while tracked adaptation finance was USD 65 billion in 2023.

The gap is wide on either basis, and tracked adaptation finance is a small part of climate finance. The 2035 goal of USD 300 billion a year covers all climate action, so it is not an adaptation figure⁶⁷.

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

S.6What this edition is, and is not

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2026, launch presentation (11 pages, Paris, 28 May 2026; global energy investment USD 3.4 trillion in 2026 estimate against USD 2.6 trillion in 2015; electricity supply and infrastructure USD 1.6 trillion). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 2ASCE (ed.), 2025 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure (overall grade C; ten-year investment gap USD 3.6 trillion; energy D+, drinking water C−, dams D+). American Society of Civil Engineers, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 3Munich Re (ed.), Natural disaster figures for 2025 (media information, 2026; overall losses about USD 224 billion; insured losses about USD 108 billion; weather events 92% of overall losses; Los Angeles wildfires about USD 53 billion overall). Munich Re, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 5Artemis (ed.), Catastrophe bond market records that were broken in 2025 (issuance about USD 25.6 billion; outstanding market just over USD 61.3 billion; 122 new 144A and private deals). Artemis, Bermuda. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 6Climate Policy Initiative (ed.), Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2025 (publication page, 23 June 2025; global climate finance USD 1.9 trillion in 2023; adaptation finance USD 65 billion, likely an underestimate; international flows to emerging and developing economies USD 196 billion, 78% public). Climate Policy Initiative, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 7UNFCCC (ed.), New collective quantified goal on climate finance, decision text FCCC/PA/CMA/2024/L.22, 24 November 2024 (at least USD 300 billion a year by 2035; call for USD 1.3 trillion a year from all sources; adaptation finance needs USD 215 to 387 billion a year to 2030). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Bonn. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 8UNFCCC (ed.), Report of the Board of the Fund for responding to Loss and Damage, addendum FCCC/CP/2025/10/Add.1, 10 November 2025 (pledges USD 790.24 million and amount received USD 397.74 million at 23 September 2025; 27 contributors). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 16Tribune India (ed.), Japan approves 20 trillion yen plan for disaster resilient infrastructure (press agency report of 7 June 2025; more than 20 trillion yen over fiscal 2026 to 2030). Tribune India, Chandigarh. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 19NSW Government (ed.), Disaster Ready Fund (page on the Commonwealth programme; AUD 1 billion nationally over five years from 1 July 2023 to 30 June 2028). New South Wales Government, Sydney. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 15Noerr (ed.), Bundestag approves exemption from the debt brake for defence spending and special funds for investments in infrastructure and climate protection (law-firm note; Bundestag vote 18 March 2025, Bundesrat 21 March 2025; EUR 100 billion for the Climate and Transformation Fund and EUR 100 billion for the states; twelve-year term). Noerr, Berlin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 4Artemis (ed.), report on the Swiss Re Institute sigma 1/2026 natural catastrophe figures for 2025 (insured losses USD 107 billion; overall losses USD 220 billion; about 49% insured; 92% of insured losses from secondary perils; 80 to 90% of losses typically uninsured in emerging economies). Read in this trade report, not in the sigma itself. Artemis, Bermuda. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 18Scroll (ed.), Budget 2026-27 proposes capital expenditure of Rs 12.2 lakh crore (report of 1 February 2026; 8.9% above the Rs 11.2 lakh crore budgeted for 2025-26; revised estimate Rs 10.9 lakh crore). Scroll.in, Mumbai. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 9IMF (ed.), 2026 Update of Resource Adequacy of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust, Resilience and Sustainability Trust, and Debt Relief Trusts, policy paper, 6 March 2026 (27 RSF arrangements; commitments SDR 10.3 billion, about USD 14 billion; five new RSFs in 2025 for SDR 3.4 billion). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

• Where is resilience investment risk concentrated?
• Which couplings carry resilience investment shocks into other systems?
• Which resilience investment capabilities hold under compound stress?
• What must 2027 evidence measure first?

In this part

• Narrative
• Headline finding
• Lead figure
• Five mechanism chapters
• Twelve-domain reading
• Sector screens
• Dependency matrix
• Risk objects
• Capability ladder
• Scenario
• Three lenses
• Portfolio

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The resilience investment-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems, read for their resilience investment content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.

Transmission paths

1. 01

   FIN → ENE → INF

   Investment in grids and storage sets how well power, water and hospitals ride out a shock.

   Reported IEA 2026¹

2. 02

   CLI → INF → FIN

   Hazards damage assets and the cost lands on budgets and insurers.

   Reported Munich Re 2025³

3. 03

   FIN → DEV

   Climate finance goals set how much adaptation money reaches developing countries.

   Reported UN decision 2024⁷

4. 04

   CLI → DEV → FIN

   Recovery funds depend on pledges turning into payments.

   Reported loss and damage fund 2025⁸

5. 05

   FIN → FIN

   Risk transfer shifts loss from budgets to markets.

   Reported cat bonds 2025⁵

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2026, launch presentation (11 pages, Paris, 28 May 2026; global energy investment USD 3.4 trillion in 2026 estimate against USD 2.6 trillion in 2015; electricity supply and infrastructure USD 1.6 trillion). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 3Munich Re (ed.), Natural disaster figures for 2025 (media information, 2026; overall losses about USD 224 billion; insured losses about USD 108 billion; weather events 92% of overall losses; Los Angeles wildfires about USD 53 billion overall). Munich Re, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 2ASCE (ed.), 2025 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure (overall grade C; ten-year investment gap USD 3.6 trillion; energy D+, drinking water C−, dams D+). American Society of Civil Engineers, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 6Climate Policy Initiative (ed.), Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2025 (publication page, 23 June 2025; global climate finance USD 1.9 trillion in 2023; adaptation finance USD 65 billion, likely an underestimate; international flows to emerging and developing economies USD 196 billion, 78% public). Climate Policy Initiative, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 7UNFCCC (ed.), New collective quantified goal on climate finance, decision text FCCC/PA/CMA/2024/L.22, 24 November 2024 (at least USD 300 billion a year by 2035; call for USD 1.3 trillion a year from all sources; adaptation finance needs USD 215 to 387 billion a year to 2030). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Bonn. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 16Tribune India (ed.), Japan approves 20 trillion yen plan for disaster resilient infrastructure (press agency report of 7 June 2025; more than 20 trillion yen over fiscal 2026 to 2030). Tribune India, Chandigarh. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 19NSW Government (ed.), Disaster Ready Fund (page on the Commonwealth programme; AUD 1 billion nationally over five years from 1 July 2023 to 30 June 2028). New South Wales Government, Sydney. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 15Noerr (ed.), Bundestag approves exemption from the debt brake for defence spending and special funds for investments in infrastructure and climate protection (law-firm note; Bundestag vote 18 March 2025, Bundesrat 21 March 2025; EUR 100 billion for the Climate and Transformation Fund and EUR 100 billion for the states; twelve-year term). Noerr, Berlin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 8UNFCCC (ed.), Report of the Board of the Fund for responding to Loss and Damage, addendum FCCC/CP/2025/10/Add.1, 10 November 2025 (pledges USD 790.24 million and amount received USD 397.74 million at 23 September 2025; 27 contributors). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 5Artemis (ed.), Catastrophe bond market records that were broken in 2025 (issuance about USD 25.6 billion; outstanding market just over USD 61.3 billion; 122 new 144A and private deals). Artemis, Bermuda. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-INVESTMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEV-007

Developing countries’ adaptation finance needs are put at USD 215 to 387 billion a year to 2030, while tracked adaptation finance was USD 65 billion in 2023.

Implication

The gap is wide on either basis, and tracked adaptation finance is a small part of climate finance. The 2035 goal of USD 300 billion a year covers all climate action, so it is not an adaptation figure⁶⁷.

What would move it

The adaptation share of the 2035 goal, better tracking of private flows and a revised flow estimate would each move this finding.

2.2Energy

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-INVESTMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-001

   The IEA estimates global energy investment at about USD 3.4 trillion in 2026, up from USD 2.6 trillion in 2015, with electricity supply and infrastructure at USD 1.6 trillion.¹

2.3Infrastructure

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-INVESTMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-002

   The 2025 US report card grades national infrastructure C, with a USD 3.6 trillion ten-year investment gap, energy at D+ and dams at D+.²

2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-INVESTMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-010

   Japan set a five-year plan of more than 20 trillion yen for fiscal 2026 to 2030, Australia committed AUD 1 billion over five years to June 2028, and the United States opened a USD 1 billion resilience grant round in March 2026.¹⁶¹⁹¹¹

2.4Climate forcing

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-INVESTMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-003

   Munich Re puts overall natural disaster losses in 2025 at about USD 224 billion, with about USD 108 billion insured; weather events made up 92% of overall losses.³

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-INVESTMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-008

   The loss and damage fund reported USD 790.24 million pledged and USD 397.74 million received at 23 September 2025, from 27 contributors.⁸

2.5Finance

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-INVESTMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-004

   Swiss Re Institute reporting puts overall natural catastrophe losses in 2025 at USD 220 billion, about 49% insured, and notes that 80 to 90% of losses in emerging economies are typically uninsured.⁴

2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-INVESTMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-005

   Catastrophe bond issuance reached USD 25.6 billion in 2025 across 122 new deals, and the outstanding market reached USD 61.3 billion.⁵

3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-INVESTMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-009

   By end-February 2026 the IMF Board had agreed 27 resilience and sustainability arrangements with commitments of SDR 10.3 billion, about USD 14 billion.⁹

4. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-INVESTMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-011

   Germany’s special fund sets EUR 100 billion for a climate fund and EUR 100 billion for the states over twelve years, the UK National Wealth Fund holds GBP 27.8 billion of capital, and the EIB Group Climate Bank Roadmap sets a target of EUR 30 billion for adaptation finance in 2026 to 2030.¹⁵¹³⁴⁴

2.6Development

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-INVESTMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEV-006

   Climate Policy Initiative tracked USD 1.9 trillion of global climate finance in 2023, of which adaptation was USD 65 billion, a figure it says is likely an underestimate.⁶

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-INVESTMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEV-007

   The 2024 climate finance decision sets a goal of at least USD 300 billion a year by 2035 for developing countries and puts their adaptation finance needs at USD 215 to 387 billion a year to 2030.⁷

2.7Systemic

1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-STRATEGIC-INVESTMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

   The leading test for 2027 is whether national portfolios fund upkeep and adaptation as well as new build, measured on one common basis. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 7UNFCCC (ed.), New collective quantified goal on climate finance, decision text FCCC/PA/CMA/2024/L.22, 24 November 2024 (at least USD 300 billion a year by 2035; call for USD 1.3 trillion a year from all sources; adaptation finance needs USD 215 to 387 billion a year to 2030). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Bonn. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 6Climate Policy Initiative (ed.), Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2025 (publication page, 23 June 2025; global climate finance USD 1.9 trillion in 2023; adaptation finance USD 65 billion, likely an underestimate; international flows to emerging and developing economies USD 196 billion, 78% public). Climate Policy Initiative, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 1IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2026, launch presentation (11 pages, Paris, 28 May 2026; global energy investment USD 3.4 trillion in 2026 estimate against USD 2.6 trillion in 2015; electricity supply and infrastructure USD 1.6 trillion). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 2ASCE (ed.), 2025 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure (overall grade C; ten-year investment gap USD 3.6 trillion; energy D+, drinking water C−, dams D+). American Society of Civil Engineers, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 16Tribune India (ed.), Japan approves 20 trillion yen plan for disaster resilient infrastructure (press agency report of 7 June 2025; more than 20 trillion yen over fiscal 2026 to 2030). Tribune India, Chandigarh. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 19NSW Government (ed.), Disaster Ready Fund (page on the Commonwealth programme; AUD 1 billion nationally over five years from 1 July 2023 to 30 June 2028). New South Wales Government, Sydney. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 11FEMA (ed.), Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (programme page updated 3 September 2026; fiscal years 2024 and 2025 funding opportunity of USD 1 billion published 25 March 2026; applications closed 23 July 2026). Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 3Munich Re (ed.), Natural disaster figures for 2025 (media information, 2026; overall losses about USD 224 billion; insured losses about USD 108 billion; weather events 92% of overall losses; Los Angeles wildfires about USD 53 billion overall). Munich Re, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 8UNFCCC (ed.), Report of the Board of the Fund for responding to Loss and Damage, addendum FCCC/CP/2025/10/Add.1, 10 November 2025 (pledges USD 790.24 million and amount received USD 397.74 million at 23 September 2025; 27 contributors). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 4Artemis (ed.), report on the Swiss Re Institute sigma 1/2026 natural catastrophe figures for 2025 (insured losses USD 107 billion; overall losses USD 220 billion; about 49% insured; 92% of insured losses from secondary perils; 80 to 90% of losses typically uninsured in emerging economies). Read in this trade report, not in the sigma itself. Artemis, Bermuda. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 5Artemis (ed.), Catastrophe bond market records that were broken in 2025 (issuance about USD 25.6 billion; outstanding market just over USD 61.3 billion; 122 new 144A and private deals). Artemis, Bermuda. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 9IMF (ed.), 2026 Update of Resource Adequacy of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust, Resilience and Sustainability Trust, and Debt Relief Trusts, policy paper, 6 March 2026 (27 RSF arrangements; commitments SDR 10.3 billion, about USD 14 billion; five new RSFs in 2025 for SDR 3.4 billion). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 15Noerr (ed.), Bundestag approves exemption from the debt brake for defence spending and special funds for investments in infrastructure and climate protection (law-firm note; Bundestag vote 18 March 2025, Bundesrat 21 March 2025; EUR 100 billion for the Climate and Transformation Fund and EUR 100 billion for the states; twelve-year term). Noerr, Berlin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 13National Wealth Fund (ed.), About us (capital commitment GBP 27.8 billion; mission to drive more than GBP 100 billion of finance; GBP 3 mobilised per GBP 1 invested over the long term). National Wealth Fund, Leeds. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 44EIB (ed.), EIB Group Climate Bank Roadmap Phase 2: 2026-2030 (publication page dated 3 October 2025; new target of EUR 30 billion for climate adaptation finance for 2026 to 2030, doubling 2021 to 2025 volumes). European Investment Bank, Luxembourg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through resilience investment, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries resilience investment risk into each domain.

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on resilience investment, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2026, launch presentation (11 pages, Paris, 28 May 2026; global energy investment USD 3.4 trillion in 2026 estimate against USD 2.6 trillion in 2015; electricity supply and infrastructure USD 1.6 trillion). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 2ASCE (ed.), 2025 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure (overall grade C; ten-year investment gap USD 3.6 trillion; energy D+, drinking water C−, dams D+). American Society of Civil Engineers, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 3Munich Re (ed.), Natural disaster figures for 2025 (media information, 2026; overall losses about USD 224 billion; insured losses about USD 108 billion; weather events 92% of overall losses; Los Angeles wildfires about USD 53 billion overall). Munich Re, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 5Artemis (ed.), Catastrophe bond market records that were broken in 2025 (issuance about USD 25.6 billion; outstanding market just over USD 61.3 billion; 122 new 144A and private deals). Artemis, Bermuda. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 6Climate Policy Initiative (ed.), Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2025 (publication page, 23 June 2025; global climate finance USD 1.9 trillion in 2023; adaptation finance USD 65 billion, likely an underestimate; international flows to emerging and developing economies USD 196 billion, 78% public). Climate Policy Initiative, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 9IMF (ed.), 2026 Update of Resource Adequacy of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust, Resilience and Sustainability Trust, and Debt Relief Trusts, policy paper, 6 March 2026 (27 RSF arrangements; commitments SDR 10.3 billion, about USD 14 billion; five new RSFs in 2025 for SDR 3.4 billion). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 8UNFCCC (ed.), Report of the Board of the Fund for responding to Loss and Damage, addendum FCCC/CP/2025/10/Add.1, 10 November 2025 (pledges USD 790.24 million and amount received USD 397.74 million at 23 September 2025; 27 contributors). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 7UNFCCC (ed.), New collective quantified goal on climate finance, decision text FCCC/PA/CMA/2024/L.22, 24 November 2024 (at least USD 300 billion a year by 2035; call for USD 1.3 trillion a year from all sources; adaptation finance needs USD 215 to 387 billion a year to 2030). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Bonn. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 15Noerr (ed.), Bundestag approves exemption from the debt brake for defence spending and special funds for investments in infrastructure and climate protection (law-firm note; Bundestag vote 18 March 2025, Bundesrat 21 March 2025; EUR 100 billion for the Climate and Transformation Fund and EUR 100 billion for the states; twelve-year term). Noerr, Berlin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 22World Resources Institute (ed.), 4 things to know about the global adaptation challenge (commentary of 10 September 2019 on the Global Commission on Adaptation; USD 1.8 trillion invested 2020 to 2030 could yield USD 7.1 trillion net benefits; benefit-cost ratios about 2 to 1 to 10 to 1). World Resources Institute, Washington. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hallegatte, S., Rentschler, J. and Walsh, B., Building Back Better: Achieving Resilience through Stronger, Faster, and More Inclusive Post-Disaster Reconstruction. World Bank, Washington, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Rozenberg, J. and Fay, M., Beyond the Gap: How Countries Can Afford the Infrastructure They Need while Protecting the Planet. World Bank, Washington, 2019, cited from memory. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-SR14-FIN-001

   Loss year with tight public budgets

   Driver

   overall disaster losses of about USD 224 billion in 2025³

   Exposure

   national budgets, insurers, recovery funds

   Vulnerability

   uninsured shares of 80 to 90% in emerging economies⁴

   Capacity

   reserve funds; cat bonds; IMF resilience facility⁵⁹

   Cascade

   CLI → INF → FIN

   Horizon

   1 to 3 years

2. InferredEQL 3RSK-SR14-INF-002

   Deferred upkeep and a widening gap

   Driver

   a USD 3.6 trillion ten-year gap in one national report card²

   Exposure

   power, water, transport and dams

   Vulnerability

   new build favoured over upkeep in some plans

   Capacity

   dedicated upkeep funds; asset registers

   Cascade

   INF → CLI → FIN

   Horizon

   1 to 5 years

3. ReportedEQL 3RSK-SR14-DEV-003

   Adaptation finance far below need

   Driver

   USD 65 billion tracked against USD 215 to 387 billion a year needed⁶⁷

   Exposure

   least developed countries and small island states

   Vulnerability

   debt-heavy flows; weak private finance

   Capacity

   concessional finance; national adaptation plans

   Cascade

   FIN → DEV → INF

   Horizon

   1 to 5 years

4. InferredEQL 3RSK-SR14-CLI-004

   Recovery money that arrives late

   Driver

   about half of pledges received at September 2025⁸

   Exposure

   countries hit by loss and damage

   Vulnerability

   slow processes from pledge to project

   Capacity

   start-up funding cycle; direct budget support under study⁸

   Cascade

   CLI → DEV → FIN

   Horizon

   1 to 5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at the global level, from a policy listing to performance in real events.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 3Munich Re (ed.), Natural disaster figures for 2025 (media information, 2026; overall losses about USD 224 billion; insured losses about USD 108 billion; weather events 92% of overall losses; Los Angeles wildfires about USD 53 billion overall). Munich Re, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 4Artemis (ed.), report on the Swiss Re Institute sigma 1/2026 natural catastrophe figures for 2025 (insured losses USD 107 billion; overall losses USD 220 billion; about 49% insured; 92% of insured losses from secondary perils; 80 to 90% of losses typically uninsured in emerging economies). Read in this trade report, not in the sigma itself. Artemis, Bermuda. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 5Artemis (ed.), Catastrophe bond market records that were broken in 2025 (issuance about USD 25.6 billion; outstanding market just over USD 61.3 billion; 122 new 144A and private deals). Artemis, Bermuda. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 9IMF (ed.), 2026 Update of Resource Adequacy of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust, Resilience and Sustainability Trust, and Debt Relief Trusts, policy paper, 6 March 2026 (27 RSF arrangements; commitments SDR 10.3 billion, about USD 14 billion; five new RSFs in 2025 for SDR 3.4 billion). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 2ASCE (ed.), 2025 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure (overall grade C; ten-year investment gap USD 3.6 trillion; energy D+, drinking water C−, dams D+). American Society of Civil Engineers, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 6Climate Policy Initiative (ed.), Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2025 (publication page, 23 June 2025; global climate finance USD 1.9 trillion in 2023; adaptation finance USD 65 billion, likely an underestimate; international flows to emerging and developing economies USD 196 billion, 78% public). Climate Policy Initiative, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 7UNFCCC (ed.), New collective quantified goal on climate finance, decision text FCCC/PA/CMA/2024/L.22, 24 November 2024 (at least USD 300 billion a year by 2035; call for USD 1.3 trillion a year from all sources; adaptation finance needs USD 215 to 387 billion a year to 2030). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Bonn. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 8UNFCCC (ed.), Report of the Board of the Fund for responding to Loss and Damage, addendum FCCC/CP/2025/10/Add.1, 10 November 2025 (pledges USD 790.24 million and amount received USD 397.74 million at 23 September 2025; 27 contributors). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 11FEMA (ed.), Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (programme page updated 3 September 2026; fiscal years 2024 and 2025 funding opportunity of USD 1 billion published 25 March 2026; applications closed 23 July 2026). Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 16Tribune India (ed.), Japan approves 20 trillion yen plan for disaster resilient infrastructure (press agency report of 7 June 2025; more than 20 trillion yen over fiscal 2026 to 2030). Tribune India, Chandigarh. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 19NSW Government (ed.), Disaster Ready Fund (page on the Commonwealth programme; AUD 1 billion nationally over five years from 1 July 2023 to 30 June 2028). New South Wales Government, Sydney. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 14091:2021, Adaptation to climate change: guidelines on vulnerability, impacts and risk assessment. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 15Noerr (ed.), Bundestag approves exemption from the debt brake for defence spending and special funds for investments in infrastructure and climate protection (law-firm note; Bundestag vote 18 March 2025, Bundesrat 21 March 2025; EUR 100 billion for the Climate and Transformation Fund and EUR 100 billion for the states; twelve-year term). Noerr, Berlin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 20European Parliament (ed.), European Competitiveness Fund, legislative observatory summary (proposed envelope EUR 234.3 billion for 2028 to 2034; multiannual financial framework described as a EUR 2 trillion budget). European Parliament, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Australian National Audit Office, Award of funding under the Disaster Ready Fund, audit report, taken from search-result summaries; the page returned a service error. Australian National Audit Office, Canberra. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 22World Resources Institute (ed.), 4 things to know about the global adaptation challenge (commentary of 10 September 2019 on the Global Commission on Adaptation; USD 1.8 trillion invested 2020 to 2030 could yield USD 7.1 trillion net benefits; benefit-cost ratios about 2 to 1 to 10 to 1). World Resources Institute, Washington. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hallegatte, S., Rentschler, J. and Walsh, B., Building Back Better: Achieving Resilience through Stronger, Faster, and More Inclusive Post-Disaster Reconstruction. World Bank, Washington, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Rozenberg, J. and Fay, M., Beyond the Gap: How Countries Can Afford the Infrastructure They Need while Protecting the Planet. World Bank, Washington, 2019, cited from memory. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-SR14-PRT-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline

the 2026 reference state in this edition

Drivers

a year of large insured and uninsured disaster losses, coinciding with competing claims on public budgets

Analogues

loss year 2025³; delayed US grant round 2025 to 2026¹¹

Interventions

none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case

Run state

narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1. 1

   CLI → INF

   storm, flood and wildfire losses damage assets and homes

   2025

2. 2

   INF → FIN

   insurers pay; uninsured losses fall on households and budgets

   2025

3. 3

   FIN → FIN

   cover is repriced and risk moves to bond markets

   2025

4. 4

   FIN → INF

   repair claims compete with planned upkeep and adaptation grants

   2026

5. 5

   FIN → DEV

   recovery pledges are slow to turn into payments

   2025

6. 6

   DEV → INF

   delayed adaptation leaves assets exposed to the next loss year

   2026

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-SR14-PRT-01 would travel through Global Resilience Investment and National Portfolios’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Global Resilience Investment and National Portfolios 2026, scenario SCN-SR14-PRT-01 (2026); Global Resilience Investment and National Portfolios 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 3Munich Re (ed.), Natural disaster figures for 2025 (media information, 2026; overall losses about USD 224 billion; insured losses about USD 108 billion; weather events 92% of overall losses; Los Angeles wildfires about USD 53 billion overall). Munich Re, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 11FEMA (ed.), Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (programme page updated 3 September 2026; fiscal years 2024 and 2025 funding opportunity of USD 1 billion published 25 March 2026; applications closed 23 July 2026). Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for resilience investment. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 resilience investment readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Publication dispositions

• Publish
• Hold
• Needs evidence
• Restricted
• Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

• IN FORCE
• ADOPTED
• PUBLISHED · GUIDANCE
• PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers resilience investment assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.

Review protocol

Question

What does the published evidence establish about the world’s resilience investment and national portfolios and its couplings?

Sources searched

budget and fund pages; reinsurer and tracker reports; peer-reviewed adaptation economics; loss statistics

Window

releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026

Selection

sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition

Next step

systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 3Munich Re (ed.), Natural disaster figures for 2025 (media information, 2026; overall losses about USD 224 billion; insured losses about USD 108 billion; weather events 92% of overall losses; Los Angeles wildfires about USD 53 billion overall). Munich Re, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 5Artemis (ed.), Catastrophe bond market records that were broken in 2025 (issuance about USD 25.6 billion; outstanding market just over USD 61.3 billion; 122 new 144A and private deals). Artemis, Bermuda. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 6Climate Policy Initiative (ed.), Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2025 (publication page, 23 June 2025; global climate finance USD 1.9 trillion in 2023; adaptation finance USD 65 billion, likely an underestimate; international flows to emerging and developing economies USD 196 billion, 78% public). Climate Policy Initiative, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations, Paris Agreement, 2015, Article 2.1(c) on finance flows consistent with low-emission and climate-resilient development, cited from memory. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 7UNFCCC (ed.), New collective quantified goal on climate finance, decision text FCCC/PA/CMA/2024/L.22, 24 November 2024 (at least USD 300 billion a year by 2035; call for USD 1.3 trillion a year from all sources; adaptation finance needs USD 215 to 387 billion a year to 2030). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Bonn. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030, cited from memory. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Directive (EU) 2022/2557 on the resilience of critical entities, Official Journal of the European Union, 2022, cited from memory. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, Public Law 117-58, 2021, cited from memory; the congressional research page returned an access error. United States Congress, Washington. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 15Noerr (ed.), Bundestag approves exemption from the debt brake for defence spending and special funds for investments in infrastructure and climate protection (law-firm note; Bundestag vote 18 March 2025, Bundesrat 21 March 2025; EUR 100 billion for the Climate and Transformation Fund and EUR 100 billion for the states; twelve-year term). Noerr, Berlin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: German Federal Ministry of Finance, Special fund infrastructure and climate neutrality (EUR 500 billion total, from a search summary); the page returned a service error. Bundesministerium der Finanzen, Berlin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: G20, Principles for Quality Infrastructure Investment, 2019, cited from memory. G20. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 14091:2021, Adaptation to climate change: guidelines on vulnerability, impacts and risk assessment. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Good Governance for Critical Infrastructure Resilience. OECD Publishing, Paris, 2019, cited from memory. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 9IMF (ed.), 2026 Update of Resource Adequacy of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust, Resilience and Sustainability Trust, and Debt Relief Trusts, policy paper, 6 March 2026 (27 RSF arrangements; commitments SDR 10.3 billion, about USD 14 billion; five new RSFs in 2025 for SDR 3.4 billion). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 17Cabinet Secretariat of Japan (ed.), Fundamental Plan for National Resilience (English page; the plan is reviewed about every five years; no five-year amount on the page read). Cabinet Secretariat, Tokyo. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 44EIB (ed.), EIB Group Climate Bank Roadmap Phase 2: 2026-2030 (publication page dated 3 October 2025; new target of EUR 30 billion for climate adaptation finance for 2026 to 2030, doubling 2021 to 2025 volumes). European Investment Bank, Luxembourg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 21POST-CLOSE, context only: ESG Today (ed.), EIB unveils EUR 30 billion climate adaptation plan (trade report of 22 October 2026; at least EUR 30 billion for adaptation in 2026 to 2030). ESG Today, online. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Post-close, context only: dated after the 30 September 2026 close; supports no baseline claim.back
18. 20European Parliament (ed.), European Competitiveness Fund, legislative observatory summary (proposed envelope EUR 234.3 billion for 2028 to 2034; multiannual financial framework described as a EUR 2 trillion budget). European Parliament, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: trade-press reports of the European Competitiveness Fund envelope (figures between EUR 409 billion and EUR 451 billion), taken from search-result summaries; the figures conflict with the Parliament summary [20]. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 11FEMA (ed.), Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (programme page updated 3 September 2026; fiscal years 2024 and 2025 funding opportunity of USD 1 billion published 25 March 2026; applications closed 23 July 2026). Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hallegatte, S., Rentschler, J. and Walsh, B., Building Back Better: Achieving Resilience through Stronger, Faster, and More Inclusive Post-Disaster Reconstruction. World Bank, Washington, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Rozenberg, J. and Fay, M., Beyond the Gap: How Countries Can Afford the Infrastructure They Need while Protecting the Planet. World Bank, Washington, 2019, cited from memory. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report. Cambridge University Press. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: Global Commission on Adaptation, Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience, 2019, known through a commentary that was opened [22]. Global Center on Adaptation, Rotterdam. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 22World Resources Institute (ed.), 4 things to know about the global adaptation challenge (commentary of 10 September 2019 on the Global Commission on Adaptation; USD 1.8 trillion invested 2020 to 2030 could yield USD 7.1 trillion net benefits; benefit-cost ratios about 2 to 1 to 10 to 1). World Resources Institute, Washington. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP (ed.), Adaptation Gap Report 2025: Running on Empty, taken from search-result summaries (needs USD 310 to 365 billion a year by 2035; international public adaptation finance USD 26 billion in 2023; 59% as debt); the report pages returned access errors. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27. 23UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025: Resilience Pays, taken from search-result summaries; the report pages returned access errors; no figure used in the findings. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hallegatte, S., Rentschler, J. and Rozenberg, J., Lifelines: The Resilient Infrastructure Opportunity, cited from memory; no figure used. World Bank and GFDRR, Washington, 2019. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29. 8UNFCCC (ed.), Report of the Board of the Fund for responding to Loss and Damage, addendum FCCC/CP/2025/10/Add.1, 10 November 2025 (pledges USD 790.24 million and amount received USD 397.74 million at 23 September 2025; 27 contributors). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30. 10IMF (ed.), Lending, 2026 IMF Annual Report (five RSF requests agreed in the year to 30 April 2026, about SDR 1.8 billion). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31. 12GAO (ed.), High-Risk List 2025 (38 areas; includes limiting the federal fiscal exposure by better managing climate change risks). US Government Accountability Office, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
32. 1IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2026, launch presentation (11 pages, Paris, 28 May 2026; global energy investment USD 3.4 trillion in 2026 estimate against USD 2.6 trillion in 2015; electricity supply and infrastructure USD 1.6 trillion). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2026 full report (grid investment near USD 550 billion in 2026, from press summaries); the report page returned an access error. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
34. 2ASCE (ed.), 2025 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure (overall grade C; ten-year investment gap USD 3.6 trillion; energy D+, drinking water C−, dams D+). American Society of Civil Engineers, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35. 19NSW Government (ed.), Disaster Ready Fund (page on the Commonwealth programme; AUD 1 billion nationally over five years from 1 July 2023 to 30 June 2028). New South Wales Government, Sydney. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
36. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Australian National Audit Office, Award of funding under the Disaster Ready Fund, audit report, taken from search-result summaries; the page returned a service error. Australian National Audit Office, Canberra. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
37. 14HM Treasury and NISTA (eds.), UK Infrastructure: A 10 Year Strategy (publication page; published 19 June 2025; no funding total on the page). UK Government, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
38. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: UK Parliament, written statement HCWS717 on the 10 Year Infrastructure Strategy, June 2025, taken from search-result summaries; the page returned an access error; no figure used. UK Parliament, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
39. 4Artemis (ed.), report on the Swiss Re Institute sigma 1/2026 natural catastrophe figures for 2025 (insured losses USD 107 billion; overall losses USD 220 billion; about 49% insured; 92% of insured losses from secondary perils; 80 to 90% of losses typically uninsured in emerging economies). Read in this trade report, not in the sigma itself. Artemis, Bermuda. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
40. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Re Institute, sigma 1/2026, Natural catastrophes in 2025, taken from a trade report and search-result summaries; the sigma page returned an access error. Swiss Re Institute, Zurich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
41. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Global Shield against Climate Risks, funding and payout reports, taken from search-result summaries; no figure used in the copy. Global Shield secretariat. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
42. 16Tribune India (ed.), Japan approves 20 trillion yen plan for disaster resilient infrastructure (press agency report of 7 June 2025; more than 20 trillion yen over fiscal 2026 to 2030). Tribune India, Chandigarh. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

7.1Questions for the operational series

1. P-01

   What share of each national portfolio funds upkeep and adaptation rather than new build, and can it be measured on one basis?

   INI-SR14-PRT-01 · portfolio resilience share; first output: common-basis table for national portfolios.

2. P-02

   How much of tracked adaptation finance reaches national priorities, and how much is debt?

   INI-SR14-ADP-02 · adaptation finance tracking; first output: adaptation flow table.

3. P-03

   Which assets need upkeep first, and where do asset condition and hazard exposure overlap?

   INI-SR14-MNT-03 · upkeep and exposure; first output: exposure overlay.

4. P-04

   How much of disaster loss is covered by public or private cover, and how fast does cover pay?

   INI-SR14-RSK-04 · risk transfer and public cover; first output: cover and payout table.

5. P-05

   How quickly does recovery money move from pledge to project?

   INI-SR14-LAD-05 · recovery finance flows; first output: pledge-to-payment chart.

6. P-06

   Which governments publish resilience spending on a comparable basis?

   To be admitted in 2027; first output: coverage note.

7. P-07

   How do energy security priorities change the resilience share of investment?

   To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

8. P-08

   Which investment capabilities have been tested in real loss years, and which are only planned?

   Resilience investment capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 resilience investment portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

7.3The pathway

The resilience investment edition reads national portfolio chapters, sector editions and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed and its first editions are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

1. 01

   National portfolio chapters

   investment reading in each national edition

   IN PREPARATION · national baselines

2. 02

   Sector editions

   energy, finance, disaster, infrastructure

   PLANNED · sector Baseline Editions

3. 03

   Resilience investment model

   the global system of investment and risk

   v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence

4. 04

   Strategic links

   SR-02 lifelines · SR-05 fiscal resilience · SR-06 insurance and protection gaps

   PLANNED · strategic baselines

5. 05

   Universe

   annual proving environment

   CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027

6. 06

   Resilience Investment Report

   this series

   BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition

7. 07

   Evidence and correction

   one graph, many projections

   OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the resilience investment candidate mission

1. 01

   Mandate

2. 02

   Core Build · 1 month

3. 03

   Action · 1 week

4. 04

   Evidence seal

5. 05

   Portfolio correction

6. 06

   Next mandate

Mission

ID

MSN-SR14-2027-01 · Loss-year Universe mission

Role spine

Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways

Receiving actors

to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

7.6Feeds and signal register

Escalation routes

• none · keep monitoring
• research question
• project
• risk object
• annual publication
• signal report

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 5Artemis (ed.), Catastrophe bond market records that were broken in 2025 (issuance about USD 25.6 billion; outstanding market just over USD 61.3 billion; 122 new 144A and private deals). Artemis, Bermuda. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 6Climate Policy Initiative (ed.), Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2025 (publication page, 23 June 2025; global climate finance USD 1.9 trillion in 2023; adaptation finance USD 65 billion, likely an underestimate; international flows to emerging and developing economies USD 196 billion, 78% public). Climate Policy Initiative, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 7UNFCCC (ed.), New collective quantified goal on climate finance, decision text FCCC/PA/CMA/2024/L.22, 24 November 2024 (at least USD 300 billion a year by 2035; call for USD 1.3 trillion a year from all sources; adaptation finance needs USD 215 to 387 billion a year to 2030). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Bonn. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 8UNFCCC (ed.), Report of the Board of the Fund for responding to Loss and Damage, addendum FCCC/CP/2025/10/Add.1, 10 November 2025 (pledges USD 790.24 million and amount received USD 397.74 million at 23 September 2025; 27 contributors). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

8.1Common causes

One cause can strike many budgets at once: a hazard, an energy shock, a rate move. The shared cause matters more than the line item.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems
• SR-05 Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience
• SR-06 Insurance, Protection Gaps and Insurability
• GS-05 Finance and Economy
• GS-08 Disaster and Resilience

8.2Domino effects

A shortfall in one flow removes an input from the next. Uninsured losses reach budgets, and budgets reach upkeep and adaptation.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems
• SR-05 Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience
• SR-06 Insurance, Protection Gaps and Insurability
• GS-05 Finance and Economy
• GS-08 Disaster and Resilience

8.3Inter-systemic feedbacks

Investment also depends on what it protects. Losses reprice cover, cover shapes budgets, and budgets shape the next loss.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems
• SR-05 Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience
• SR-06 Insurance, Protection Gaps and Insurability
• GS-05 Finance and Economy
• GS-08 Disaster and Resilience

8.4Shared vulnerabilities

Different portfolios share the same weak points: deferred upkeep, debt-heavy adaptation finance, slow recovery money and thin data.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems
• SR-05 Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience
• SR-06 Insurance, Protection Gaps and Insurability
• GS-05 Finance and Economy
• GS-08 Disaster and Resilience

8.5Thresholds and tipping

A system can absorb stress until a threshold is crossed. Fiscal space, payment speed and cover availability are such thresholds for resilience investment.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems
• SR-05 Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience
• SR-06 Insurance, Protection Gaps and Insurability
• GS-05 Finance and Economy
• GS-08 Disaster and Resilience

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 3Munich Re (ed.), Natural disaster figures for 2025 (media information, 2026; overall losses about USD 224 billion; insured losses about USD 108 billion; weather events 92% of overall losses; Los Angeles wildfires about USD 53 billion overall). Munich Re, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 1IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2026, launch presentation (11 pages, Paris, 28 May 2026; global energy investment USD 3.4 trillion in 2026 estimate against USD 2.6 trillion in 2015; electricity supply and infrastructure USD 1.6 trillion). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 4Artemis (ed.), report on the Swiss Re Institute sigma 1/2026 natural catastrophe figures for 2025 (insured losses USD 107 billion; overall losses USD 220 billion; about 49% insured; 92% of insured losses from secondary perils; 80 to 90% of losses typically uninsured in emerging economies). Read in this trade report, not in the sigma itself. Artemis, Bermuda. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 2ASCE (ed.), 2025 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure (overall grade C; ten-year investment gap USD 3.6 trillion; energy D+, drinking water C−, dams D+). American Society of Civil Engineers, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 23UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025: Resilience Pays, taken from search-result summaries; the report pages returned access errors; no figure used in the findings. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 8UNFCCC (ed.), Report of the Board of the Fund for responding to Loss and Damage, addendum FCCC/CP/2025/10/Add.1, 10 November 2025 (pledges USD 790.24 million and amount received USD 397.74 million at 23 September 2025; 27 contributors). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 6Climate Policy Initiative (ed.), Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2025 (publication page, 23 June 2025; global climate finance USD 1.9 trillion in 2023; adaptation finance USD 65 billion, likely an underestimate; international flows to emerging and developing economies USD 196 billion, 78% public). Climate Policy Initiative, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 7UNFCCC (ed.), New collective quantified goal on climate finance, decision text FCCC/PA/CMA/2024/L.22, 24 November 2024 (at least USD 300 billion a year by 2035; call for USD 1.3 trillion a year from all sources; adaptation finance needs USD 215 to 387 billion a year to 2030). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Bonn. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 5Artemis (ed.), Catastrophe bond market records that were broken in 2025 (issuance about USD 25.6 billion; outstanding market just over USD 61.3 billion; 122 new 144A and private deals). Artemis, Bermuda. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Global Shield against Climate Risks, funding and payout reports, taken from search-result summaries; no figure used in the copy. Global Shield secretariat. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 12GAO (ed.), High-Risk List 2025 (38 areas; includes limiting the federal fiscal exposure by better managing climate change risks). US Government Accountability Office, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP (ed.), Adaptation Gap Report 2025: Running on Empty, taken from search-result summaries (needs USD 310 to 365 billion a year by 2035; international public adaptation finance USD 26 billion in 2023; 59% as debt); the report pages returned access errors. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 16Tribune India (ed.), Japan approves 20 trillion yen plan for disaster resilient infrastructure (press agency report of 7 June 2025; more than 20 trillion yen over fiscal 2026 to 2030). Tribune India, Chandigarh. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 19NSW Government (ed.), Disaster Ready Fund (page on the Commonwealth programme; AUD 1 billion nationally over five years from 1 July 2023 to 30 June 2028). New South Wales Government, Sydney. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 15Noerr (ed.), Bundestag approves exemption from the debt brake for defence spending and special funds for investments in infrastructure and climate protection (law-firm note; Bundestag vote 18 March 2025, Bundesrat 21 March 2025; EUR 100 billion for the Climate and Transformation Fund and EUR 100 billion for the states; twelve-year term). Noerr, Berlin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 17Cabinet Secretariat of Japan (ed.), Fundamental Plan for National Resilience (English page; the plan is reviewed about every five years; no five-year amount on the page read). Cabinet Secretariat, Tokyo. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Good Governance for Critical Infrastructure Resilience. OECD Publishing, Paris, 2019, cited from memory. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 9IMF (ed.), 2026 Update of Resource Adequacy of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust, Resilience and Sustainability Trust, and Debt Relief Trusts, policy paper, 6 March 2026 (27 RSF arrangements; commitments SDR 10.3 billion, about USD 14 billion; five new RSFs in 2025 for SDR 3.4 billion). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 10IMF (ed.), Lending, 2026 IMF Annual Report (five RSF requests agreed in the year to 30 April 2026, about SDR 1.8 billion). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

A.1Methods

The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

A.2Model card, Resilience Investment Model v0

Model ID

MDL-SR14-INVESTMENT · v0.1

Purpose

represent resilience investment as a connected system and the mechanisms by which money, losses and cover move between energy, infrastructure, adaptation and recovery

Family

graph-based system of systems

Inputs

the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data

Method

expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events

Validation

none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027

Uncertainty

qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements

Domain of validity

global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use

Reproducibility

strength table and sources published in this edition

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID

DC-STRATEGIC-INVESTMENT-GLOBAL-2026-B0

Type

baseline documentary cut

Resolution policy

pinned · as of 30 September 2026

Sources pinned

44 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references

Model runs

none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method

Digest

computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record

Supersedes

nothing, first cut of the series

Superseded by

the 2027 resilience investment annual cut

Lineage

1. 01

   source edition

2. 02

   pinned citation

3. 03

   finding

4. 04

   page

5. 05

   publication record

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Evidence cards to follow in 2027

• IEA³⁶: grid and storage tables in the full report
• UNEP³⁵: need and gap tables
• UNDRR²³: investment and return chapters
• Swiss Re Institute²⁵: protection gap section

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

A.7Status words

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

A.10Technical annex

A.1 · indicator definition: adaptation finance

Construct

finance tracked as supporting adaptation to climate change, from public and private sources

Unit

USD billion a year

Method

bottom-up tracking of public, private and multilateral flows

Source

Climate Policy Initiative landscape⁶

Uncertainty

the tracker calls its figure likely an underestimate

Known limits

tracking gaps, domestic flows and private flows differ by region

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2026 full report (grid investment near USD 550 billion in 2026, from press summaries); the report page returned an access error. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP (ed.), Adaptation Gap Report 2025: Running on Empty, taken from search-result summaries (needs USD 310 to 365 billion a year by 2035; international public adaptation finance USD 26 billion in 2023; 59% as debt); the report pages returned access errors. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 23UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025: Resilience Pays, taken from search-result summaries; the report pages returned access errors; no figure used in the findings. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Re Institute, sigma 1/2026, Natural catastrophes in 2025, taken from a trade report and search-result summaries; the sigma page returned an access error. Swiss Re Institute, Zurich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 14HM Treasury and NISTA (eds.), UK Infrastructure: A 10 Year Strategy (publication page; published 19 June 2025; no funding total on the page). UK Government, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: UK Parliament, written statement HCWS717 on the 10 Year Infrastructure Strategy, June 2025, taken from search-result summaries; the page returned an access error; no figure used. UK Parliament, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: German Federal Ministry of Finance, Special fund infrastructure and climate neutrality (EUR 500 billion total, from a search summary); the page returned a service error. Bundesministerium der Finanzen, Berlin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 17Cabinet Secretariat of Japan (ed.), Fundamental Plan for National Resilience (English page; the plan is reviewed about every five years; no five-year amount on the page read). Cabinet Secretariat, Tokyo. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Australian National Audit Office, Award of funding under the Disaster Ready Fund, audit report, taken from search-result summaries; the page returned a service error. Australian National Audit Office, Canberra. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 6Climate Policy Initiative (ed.), Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2025 (publication page, 23 June 2025; global climate finance USD 1.9 trillion in 2023; adaptation finance USD 65 billion, likely an underestimate; international flows to emerging and developing economies USD 196 billion, 78% public). Climate Policy Initiative, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 20European Parliament (ed.), European Competitiveness Fund, legislative observatory summary (proposed envelope EUR 234.3 billion for 2028 to 2034; multiannual financial framework described as a EUR 2 trillion budget). European Parliament, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: trade-press reports of the European Competitiveness Fund envelope (figures between EUR 409 billion and EUR 451 billion), taken from search-result summaries; the figures conflict with the Parliament summary [20]. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 1IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2026, launch presentation (11 pages, Paris, 28 May 2026; global energy investment USD 3.4 trillion in 2026 estimate against USD 2.6 trillion in 2015; electricity supply and infrastructure USD 1.6 trillion). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 8UNFCCC (ed.), Report of the Board of the Fund for responding to Loss and Damage, addendum FCCC/CP/2025/10/Add.1, 10 November 2025 (pledges USD 790.24 million and amount received USD 397.74 million at 23 September 2025; 27 contributors). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

B.1The indicator set

B.2Global source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

• ENE
• INF
• CLI
• FIN
• DEV
• WAT
• HLT
• AIC
• MIN
• TRD

B.3Regional reading, ten regional clusters

Map plates follow with the regional Baseline Editions, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form and places no region in a league table.

B.4Regional card: national portfolios side by side

• national
• budget
• fund
• plan

Systems in view

energy, assets, adaptation, recovery

Defining items

Japan plan, Australian fund, German special fund, US grant round^16191511

Couplings

FIN → INF; FIN → DEV

Capability evidence

plans and funds exist; payment and upkeep shares are not consolidated

Gaps

common basis; upkeep share; private flows

Agenda items

P-01 · P-03

B.5How countries appear in the global edition

Countries enter the resilience investment edition through the investment chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never placed in a league table.

Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme

How to read a country card

• Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist
• Couplings and risk objects come from the country’s own national edition
• Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions
• Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such

B.6Licences

B.7Formats and provenance

Provenance

Edition pack

The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built

Evidence cut

DC-STRATEGIC-INVESTMENT-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026

Reproducibility

sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters

Self-check

14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release

Review

five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)

Publisher of record

GCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Corrections

Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2026, launch presentation (11 pages, Paris, 28 May 2026; global energy investment USD 3.4 trillion in 2026 estimate against USD 2.6 trillion in 2015; electricity supply and infrastructure USD 1.6 trillion). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 2ASCE (ed.), 2025 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure (overall grade C; ten-year investment gap USD 3.6 trillion; energy D+, drinking water C−, dams D+). American Society of Civil Engineers, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 3Munich Re (ed.), Natural disaster figures for 2025 (media information, 2026; overall losses about USD 224 billion; insured losses about USD 108 billion; weather events 92% of overall losses; Los Angeles wildfires about USD 53 billion overall). Munich Re, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 4Artemis (ed.), report on the Swiss Re Institute sigma 1/2026 natural catastrophe figures for 2025 (insured losses USD 107 billion; overall losses USD 220 billion; about 49% insured; 92% of insured losses from secondary perils; 80 to 90% of losses typically uninsured in emerging economies). Read in this trade report, not in the sigma itself. Artemis, Bermuda. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 5Artemis (ed.), Catastrophe bond market records that were broken in 2025 (issuance about USD 25.6 billion; outstanding market just over USD 61.3 billion; 122 new 144A and private deals). Artemis, Bermuda. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 6Climate Policy Initiative (ed.), Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2025 (publication page, 23 June 2025; global climate finance USD 1.9 trillion in 2023; adaptation finance USD 65 billion, likely an underestimate; international flows to emerging and developing economies USD 196 billion, 78% public). Climate Policy Initiative, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 7UNFCCC (ed.), New collective quantified goal on climate finance, decision text FCCC/PA/CMA/2024/L.22, 24 November 2024 (at least USD 300 billion a year by 2035; call for USD 1.3 trillion a year from all sources; adaptation finance needs USD 215 to 387 billion a year to 2030). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Bonn. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 8UNFCCC (ed.), Report of the Board of the Fund for responding to Loss and Damage, addendum FCCC/CP/2025/10/Add.1, 10 November 2025 (pledges USD 790.24 million and amount received USD 397.74 million at 23 September 2025; 27 contributors). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 9IMF (ed.), 2026 Update of Resource Adequacy of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust, Resilience and Sustainability Trust, and Debt Relief Trusts, policy paper, 6 March 2026 (27 RSF arrangements; commitments SDR 10.3 billion, about USD 14 billion; five new RSFs in 2025 for SDR 3.4 billion). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 13National Wealth Fund (ed.), About us (capital commitment GBP 27.8 billion; mission to drive more than GBP 100 billion of finance; GBP 3 mobilised per GBP 1 invested over the long term). National Wealth Fund, Leeds. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 12GAO (ed.), High-Risk List 2025 (38 areas; includes limiting the federal fiscal exposure by better managing climate change risks). US Government Accountability Office, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 11FEMA (ed.), Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (programme page updated 3 September 2026; fiscal years 2024 and 2025 funding opportunity of USD 1 billion published 25 March 2026; applications closed 23 July 2026). Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 15Noerr (ed.), Bundestag approves exemption from the debt brake for defence spending and special funds for investments in infrastructure and climate protection (law-firm note; Bundestag vote 18 March 2025, Bundesrat 21 March 2025; EUR 100 billion for the Climate and Transformation Fund and EUR 100 billion for the states; twelve-year term). Noerr, Berlin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 20European Parliament (ed.), European Competitiveness Fund, legislative observatory summary (proposed envelope EUR 234.3 billion for 2028 to 2034; multiannual financial framework described as a EUR 2 trillion budget). European Parliament, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 44EIB (ed.), EIB Group Climate Bank Roadmap Phase 2: 2026-2030 (publication page dated 3 October 2025; new target of EUR 30 billion for climate adaptation finance for 2026 to 2030, doubling 2021 to 2025 volumes). European Investment Bank, Luxembourg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 18Scroll (ed.), Budget 2026-27 proposes capital expenditure of Rs 12.2 lakh crore (report of 1 February 2026; 8.9% above the Rs 11.2 lakh crore budgeted for 2025-26; revised estimate Rs 10.9 lakh crore). Scroll.in, Mumbai. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 16Tribune India (ed.), Japan approves 20 trillion yen plan for disaster resilient infrastructure (press agency report of 7 June 2025; more than 20 trillion yen over fiscal 2026 to 2030). Tribune India, Chandigarh. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 17Cabinet Secretariat of Japan (ed.), Fundamental Plan for National Resilience (English page; the plan is reviewed about every five years; no five-year amount on the page read). Cabinet Secretariat, Tokyo. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 19NSW Government (ed.), Disaster Ready Fund (page on the Commonwealth programme; AUD 1 billion nationally over five years from 1 July 2023 to 30 June 2028). New South Wales Government, Sydney. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

C.144 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1. 1IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2026, launch presentation (11 pages, Paris, 28 May 2026; global energy investment USD 3.4 trillion in 2026 estimate against USD 2.6 trillion in 2015; electricity supply and infrastructure USD 1.6 trillion). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
2. 2ASCE (ed.), 2025 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure (overall grade C; ten-year investment gap USD 3.6 trillion; energy D+, drinking water C−, dams D+). American Society of Civil Engineers, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
3. 3Munich Re (ed.), Natural disaster figures for 2025 (media information, 2026; overall losses about USD 224 billion; insured losses about USD 108 billion; weather events 92% of overall losses; Los Angeles wildfires about USD 53 billion overall). Munich Re, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
4. 4Artemis (ed.), report on the Swiss Re Institute sigma 1/2026 natural catastrophe figures for 2025 (insured losses USD 107 billion; overall losses USD 220 billion; about 49% insured; 92% of insured losses from secondary perils; 80 to 90% of losses typically uninsured in emerging economies). Read in this trade report, not in the sigma itself. Artemis, Bermuda. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
5. 5Artemis (ed.), Catastrophe bond market records that were broken in 2025 (issuance about USD 25.6 billion; outstanding market just over USD 61.3 billion; 122 new 144A and private deals). Artemis, Bermuda. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
6. 6Climate Policy Initiative (ed.), Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2025 (publication page, 23 June 2025; global climate finance USD 1.9 trillion in 2023; adaptation finance USD 65 billion, likely an underestimate; international flows to emerging and developing economies USD 196 billion, 78% public). Climate Policy Initiative, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
7. 7UNFCCC (ed.), New collective quantified goal on climate finance, decision text FCCC/PA/CMA/2024/L.22, 24 November 2024 (at least USD 300 billion a year by 2035; call for USD 1.3 trillion a year from all sources; adaptation finance needs USD 215 to 387 billion a year to 2030). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Bonn. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
8. 8UNFCCC (ed.), Report of the Board of the Fund for responding to Loss and Damage, addendum FCCC/CP/2025/10/Add.1, 10 November 2025 (pledges USD 790.24 million and amount received USD 397.74 million at 23 September 2025; 27 contributors). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
9. 9IMF (ed.), 2026 Update of Resource Adequacy of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust, Resilience and Sustainability Trust, and Debt Relief Trusts, policy paper, 6 March 2026 (27 RSF arrangements; commitments SDR 10.3 billion, about USD 14 billion; five new RSFs in 2025 for SDR 3.4 billion). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
10. 10IMF (ed.), Lending, 2026 IMF Annual Report (five RSF requests agreed in the year to 30 April 2026, about SDR 1.8 billion). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
11. 11FEMA (ed.), Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (programme page updated 3 September 2026; fiscal years 2024 and 2025 funding opportunity of USD 1 billion published 25 March 2026; applications closed 23 July 2026). Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6
12. 12GAO (ed.), High-Risk List 2025 (38 areas; includes limiting the federal fiscal exposure by better managing climate change risks). US Government Accountability Office, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
13. 13National Wealth Fund (ed.), About us (capital commitment GBP 27.8 billion; mission to drive more than GBP 100 billion of finance; GBP 3 mobilised per GBP 1 invested over the long term). National Wealth Fund, Leeds. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2
14. 14HM Treasury and NISTA (eds.), UK Infrastructure: A 10 Year Strategy (publication page; published 19 June 2025; no funding total on the page). UK Government, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
15. 15Noerr (ed.), Bundestag approves exemption from the debt brake for defence spending and special funds for investments in infrastructure and climate protection (law-firm note; Bundestag vote 18 March 2025, Bundesrat 21 March 2025; EUR 100 billion for the Climate and Transformation Fund and EUR 100 billion for the states; twelve-year term). Noerr, Berlin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
16. 16Tribune India (ed.), Japan approves 20 trillion yen plan for disaster resilient infrastructure (press agency report of 7 June 2025; more than 20 trillion yen over fiscal 2026 to 2030). Tribune India, Chandigarh. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
17. 17Cabinet Secretariat of Japan (ed.), Fundamental Plan for National Resilience (English page; the plan is reviewed about every five years; no five-year amount on the page read). Cabinet Secretariat, Tokyo. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
18. 18Scroll (ed.), Budget 2026-27 proposes capital expenditure of Rs 12.2 lakh crore (report of 1 February 2026; 8.9% above the Rs 11.2 lakh crore budgeted for 2025-26; revised estimate Rs 10.9 lakh crore). Scroll.in, Mumbai. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary
19. 19NSW Government (ed.), Disaster Ready Fund (page on the Commonwealth programme; AUD 1 billion nationally over five years from 1 July 2023 to 30 June 2028). New South Wales Government, Sydney. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
20. 20European Parliament (ed.), European Competitiveness Fund, legislative observatory summary (proposed envelope EUR 234.3 billion for 2028 to 2034; multiannual financial framework described as a EUR 2 trillion budget). European Parliament, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
21. 21POST-CLOSE, context only: ESG Today (ed.), EIB unveils EUR 30 billion climate adaptation plan (trade report of 22 October 2026; at least EUR 30 billion for adaptation in 2026 to 2030). ESG Today, online. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Post-close, context only: dated after the 30 September 2026 close; supports no baseline claim. Cited in chapter 6
22. 22World Resources Institute (ed.), 4 things to know about the global adaptation challenge (commentary of 10 September 2019 on the Global Commission on Adaptation; USD 1.8 trillion invested 2020 to 2030 could yield USD 7.1 trillion net benefits; benefit-cost ratios about 2 to 1 to 10 to 1). World Resources Institute, Washington. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
23. 23UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025: Resilience Pays, taken from search-result summaries; the report pages returned access errors; no figure used in the findings. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
24. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hallegatte, S., Rentschler, J. and Rozenberg, J., Lifelines: The Resilient Infrastructure Opportunity, cited from memory; no figure used. World Bank and GFDRR, Washington, 2019. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
25. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Re Institute, sigma 1/2026, Natural catastrophes in 2025, taken from a trade report and search-result summaries; the sigma page returned an access error. Swiss Re Institute, Zurich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
26. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: Global Commission on Adaptation, Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience, 2019, known through a commentary that was opened [22]. Global Center on Adaptation, Rotterdam. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
27. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Global Shield against Climate Risks, funding and payout reports, taken from search-result summaries; no figure used in the copy. Global Shield secretariat. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
28. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: UK Parliament, written statement HCWS717 on the 10 Year Infrastructure Strategy, June 2025, taken from search-result summaries; the page returned an access error; no figure used. UK Parliament, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
29. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: German Federal Ministry of Finance, Special fund infrastructure and climate neutrality (EUR 500 billion total, from a search summary); the page returned a service error. Bundesministerium der Finanzen, Berlin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
30. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Australian National Audit Office, Award of funding under the Disaster Ready Fund, audit report, taken from search-result summaries; the page returned a service error. Australian National Audit Office, Canberra. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
31. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: trade-press reports of the European Competitiveness Fund envelope (figures between EUR 409 billion and EUR 451 billion), taken from search-result summaries; the figures conflict with the Parliament summary [20]. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
32. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Directive (EU) 2022/2557 on the resilience of critical entities, Official Journal of the European Union, 2022, cited from memory. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030, cited from memory. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations, Paris Agreement, 2015, Article 2.1(c) on finance flows consistent with low-emission and climate-resilient development, cited from memory. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP (ed.), Adaptation Gap Report 2025: Running on Empty, taken from search-result summaries (needs USD 310 to 365 billion a year by 2035; international public adaptation finance USD 26 billion in 2023; 59% as debt); the report pages returned access errors. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2026 full report (grid investment near USD 550 billion in 2026, from press summaries); the report page returned an access error. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, Public Law 117-58, 2021, cited from memory; the congressional research page returned an access error. United States Congress, Washington. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hallegatte, S., Rentschler, J. and Walsh, B., Building Back Better: Achieving Resilience through Stronger, Faster, and More Inclusive Post-Disaster Reconstruction. World Bank, Washington, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Rozenberg, J. and Fay, M., Beyond the Gap: How Countries Can Afford the Infrastructure They Need while Protecting the Planet. World Bank, Washington, 2019, cited from memory. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Good Governance for Critical Infrastructure Resilience. OECD Publishing, Paris, 2019, cited from memory. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: G20, Principles for Quality Infrastructure Investment, 2019, cited from memory. G20. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 14091:2021, Adaptation to climate change: guidelines on vulnerability, impacts and risk assessment. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report. Cambridge University Press. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
44. 44EIB (ed.), EIB Group Climate Bank Roadmap Phase 2: 2026-2030 (publication page dated 3 October 2025; new target of EUR 30 billion for climate adaptation finance for 2026 to 2030, doubling 2021 to 2025 volumes). European Investment Bank, Luxembourg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6

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