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A loss year that meets tight public budgets

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

2 min read0 figures0 tables2 notesNR-STRATEGIC-INVESTMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Money meets risk
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5A loss year that meets tight public budgets
    1. 5.1 Assumptions
    2. 5.2 The cascade, step by step
    3. 5.3 The scenario as a table of steps
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-SR14-PRT-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline
the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers
a year of large insured and uninsured disaster losses, coinciding with competing claims on public budgets
Analogues
loss year 20253; delayed US grant round 2025 to 202611
Interventions
none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state
narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

  1. 1

    CLI → INF

    storm, flood and wildfire losses damage assets and homes

    2025

  2. 2

    INF → FIN

    insurers pay; uninsured losses fall on households and budgets

    2025

  3. 3

    FIN → FIN

    cover is repriced and risk moves to bond markets

    2025

  4. 4

    FIN → INF

    repair claims compete with planned upkeep and adaptation grants

    2026

  5. 5

    FIN → DEV

    recovery pledges are slow to turn into payments

    2025

  6. 6

    DEV → INF

    delayed adaptation leaves assets exposed to the next loss year

    2026

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-SR14-PRT-01 would travel through Global Resilience Investment and National Portfolios’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

StepWhat happensSource
01 Climate to infrastructureStorm, flood and wildfire losses damage assets and homes. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition SR-14, scenario SCN-SR14-PRT-01, step 1
02 Infrastructure to financeInsurers pay; uninsured losses fall on households and budgets. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition SR-14, scenario SCN-SR14-PRT-01, step 2
03 Finance to financeCover is repriced and risk moves to bond markets. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition SR-14, scenario SCN-SR14-PRT-01, step 3
04 Finance to infrastructureRepair claims compete with planned upkeep and adaptation grants. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition SR-14, scenario SCN-SR14-PRT-01, step 4
05 Finance to developmentRecovery pledges are slow to turn into payments. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition SR-14, scenario SCN-SR14-PRT-01, step 5
06 Development to infrastructureDelayed adaptation leaves assets exposed to the next loss year. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition SR-14, scenario SCN-SR14-PRT-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Global Resilience Investment and National Portfolios 2026, scenario SCN-SR14-PRT-01 (2026); Global Resilience Investment and National Portfolios 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 3Munich Re (ed.), Natural disaster figures for 2025 (media information, 2026; overall losses about USD 224 billion; insured losses about USD 108 billion; weather events 92% of overall losses; Los Angeles wildfires about USD 53 billion overall). Munich Re, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 11FEMA (ed.), Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (programme page updated 3 September 2026; fiscal years 2024 and 2025 funding opportunity of USD 1 billion published 25 March 2026; applications closed 23 July 2026). Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 5: A loss year that meets tight public budgets. In Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Resilience Investment and National Portfolios (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-INVESTMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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