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Canada 2026

Canada

Canada enters 2027 with electricity that is largely non-emitting, an oil and gas sector that still produced 30% of national emissions in 2024, a freshwater endowment that is vast in total but thin where people live, and a hazard regime in which feux de forêt, hail, flood and ice storms now set the pace of losses. National emissions were 685 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 10.3% below 2005 and almost unchanged on 2023.

Read the editionExposition aux aléas
Constats
12
each with its status and source
Sectors with findings
4 of 6
Infrastructure not assessed
Risk objects
4
order carries no rank
Sources
48
Evidence close 30 September 2026

01 · Readings

Canada in six readings.

Six readings that frame the baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  • 41.5millionpopulation, 2025 [11]
  • 8.79million km²land area [32]
  • ≈9%of the world’s forests [31]
  • ≈83%electricity from non-emitting sources [9]
  • ≈⅓of world potash output [30]
  • 12.4% GDPhealth spending, 2024 [21]

02 · Sectors

Six sectors, one hexagon.

Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.

  1. WATEau1 finding

    ≈7% Share of the world’s renewable freshwater, long-run mean. Déclaré

    Abundant in total, scarce where people and farms are; drought on the Prairies and in southern British Columbia is the binding stress.

  2. ENEÉnergie2 findings

    50 Mt CO₂e Electricity-sector emissions, 2024. Déclaré

    Low-emitting power; emissions concentrated in oil and gas; hydro output exposed to dry years.

  3. INFinfrastructuresnot assessed

    Long, thin corridors carry trade; gateways have shown capacity and continuity limits.

  4. FOOAlimentation0 findings

    70 Mt CO₂e Agriculture-sector emissions, 2024. Déclaré

    A major exporter of grains, oilseeds and potash; yields swing with Prairie drought.

  5. HLTSanté1 finding

    619 deaths Heat-related deaths, 2021 heat dome (BC), 2021. Déclaré

    Heat and smoke now load the health system each season; Une seule santé signals include H5N1 in poultry and a domestic human case in 2024.

  6. BIOBiodiversité1 finding

    13.7% Land in protected and conserved areas, 2023. Déclaré

    Vast forest and freshwater ecosystems; conservation at about half of the 2030 target.

Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 3, Finance 2, Systemic 1, Trade 1.

03 · Hazard exposure

The hazards this edition reads.

The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.

  • RSK-CAN-CLI-001

    Compound wildfire, smoke and heat season

    DéclaréEQL 3

    Facteur
    longer fire seasons; heat; drought
    Exposition
    communities at the wildland–urban edge; city populations under smoke
    Vulnérabilité
    older adults, outdoor workers, people with chronic illness; single-access towns
    Capacité
    interagency fire mutual aid; public alerting; clean-air spaces
    Cascade
    CLI → BIO → HLT → ENE cooling load
    Horizon
    seasonal · 1 and 5 years

    Terres et écosystèmesAtmosphère et météoSystèmes d'eau

  • RSK-CAN-WAT-002

    Multi-year drought in western Canada

    InferredEQL 3

    Facteur
    low snowpack; heat; low summer flows
    Exposition
    Prairie agriculture; western hydro; municipal supply
    Vulnérabilité
    rain-fed farms; reservoir-limited systèmes
    Capacité
    drought monitoring; crop insurance; interties and imports
    Cascade
    WAT → ENE → FOO → TRD
    Horizon
    1–3 years

    Systèmes d'eauAtmosphère et météo

  • RSK-CAN-CLI-003

    Pluvial and riverine flooding in cities and corridors

    DéclaréEQL 4

    Facteur
    extreme rainfall; atmospheric rivers; snowmelt
    Exposition
    basements and networks in large cities; rail and road links
    Vulnérabilité
    older drainage; high-risk households with thin cover [22]
    Capacité
    flood mapping; disaster assistance; insurance
    Cascade
    CLI → INF → FOO, FIN
    Horizon
    annuel

    Systèmes d'eau

  • RSK-CAN-TRD-004

    Trade-terms shock to integrated supply chains

    InferredEQL 3

    Facteur
    tariffs; the 2026 CUSMA joint review [35]
    Exposition
    autos, steel and aluminium, energy, agri-food
    Vulnérabilité
    concentration of export markets [12]
    Capacité
    trade diversification; fiscal measures
    Cascade
    TRD → FIN → households
    Horizon
    1–5 years

    No domain reading

Scenario · SCN-CAN-HDF-01

Western heat, drought and fire year

Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.

4 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them

  1. 1CLI → WATlow snowpack and heat cut summer flows and reservoir inflow
  2. 2WAT → ENElower hydro output; imports at peak prices
  3. 3CLI → HLTheat deaths and emergency visits; cooling in care settings
  4. 4BIO → HLTsmoke over Prairie and BC cities for weeks
  5. 5WAT → FOOcanola and wheat yields fall by a third or more
  6. 6CLI → INFfire and heat slow rail operations; export delays

04 · Couplings

How the sectors carry risk into each other.

The Canada matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systèmes. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Coupling matrix, from row to column
DeWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT·StrongStrongModéréeStrong
ENEModérée·StrongStrongModérée
FOOModéréeWeak·StrongStrong
HLTWeakWeakModérée·Weak
BIOStrongModéréeStrongModérée·

Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.

Cascade paths, in the edition’s order

  1. WAT → ENE → HLTa dry year cuts hydro; heat raises peak demand; care settings need power and coolingInferred
  2. CLI → BIO → HLTa fire season sends smoke over distant cities for weeksDéclaré
  3. WAT → FOO → TRDdrought cuts yields and export volumesDéclaré
  4. CLI → INF → FOOflood or fire cuts rail links to portsInferred
  5. ENE → FOOfuel and fertiliser costs pass into food pricesInferred

05 · Findings

Every finding of Canada.

Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.

All 12 findings

Findings of Canada
IDÉditionSector or systemStatutStatement
CLI-001CanadaCLI Climate forcing DéclaréNational GHG emissions were 685 Mt CO₂e in 2024: 10.3% below 2005 and 0.3% below 2023.
FIN-002CanadaFIN Finance DéclaréInsured catastrophe losses reached a record C$9.1 billion in 2024, then C$2.4 billion in 2025, with 17 catastrophes declared.
FIN-003CanadaFIN Finance DéclaréInsurance has covered about 54% of societal catastrophe losses over 43 years; the long-run loss trend is rising by about 9% a year after inflation.
ENE-004CanadaENE Énergie DéclaréOil and gas remained the largest emitting sector (208 Mt, 30%, up 1.8%), while methane fell to its lowest level on record (105 Mt CO₂e).
ENE-005CanadaENE Énergie InferredElectricity emitted 50 Mt CO₂e (7.2%). Hydro’s dominance makes multi-year drought a direct risk to supply and to exports.
WAT-006CanadaWAT Eau DéclaréCanada holds about 7% of the world’s renewable freshwater; most of it drains north, away from population and agriculture.
CLI-007CanadaCLI Climate forcing DéclaréCanada has warmed at about twice the global rate (1.7 °C, 1948–2016), and northern Canada faster still.
HLT-008CanadaHLT Santé DéclaréThe 2021 heat dome caused 619 heat-related deaths in British Columbia, establishing heat as a first-order health–power coupling.
BIO-009CanadaBIO Biodiversité DéclaréProtected and conserved areas covered 13.7% of land and 14.7% of marine territory in 2023, against a 30% target for 2030.
CLI-010CanadaCLI Climate forcing DéclaréThe 2023 feux de forêt season burned more than 15 million hectares, the largest on record, and 2025 led the record for fire catastrophes declared.
TRD-011CanadaTRD Commerce InferredAbout three-quarters of goods exports go to the United States, so trade policy is the main channel for economic shocks in 2026–2027.
SYS-012CanadaSYS Systémique Expert inputThe leading compound pathway for 2027 testing runs from heat and drought through hydro shortfall, feux de forêt smoke and rail disruption into health and food logistics in Western Canada.
The full ledger, without scripts

06 · Editions and calendar

The desks’ editions for Canada.

The desks’ editions for Canada
BureauÉditionÉtatIdentifiant
GCRI Systems EvidenceCanada 2026Drafted, in stewardship reviewNR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
GRF Public DeliberationPublic Deliberation: Canada 2026En préparation
GRA Capital ReadinessCapital Readiness: Canada 2026En préparation
Standards ProgressNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Academy CapabilityNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Index MeasurementMeasurement: Canada 2026En préparation

Calendar · 2026 Baseline

  1. 01Call opensset by the editor
  2. 02Contribution closeset by the editor
  3. 03Clôture des preuves30 September 2026
  4. 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
  5. 05Collection compilationset by the editor
  6. 06Collection releaseset by the editor
  7. 07Rectificatifsafter release, as needed

Evidence cut NQ-CAN-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.

07 · Take part

Read it, improve it, cite it.

Journal des corrections

Versions and corrections
VersionDateÉtatVariationNotice
NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DRAFTBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,aucun
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
Data gaps and proposed sources
ÉcartShown here asProposed source
Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares)the edition’s own risk objects, without valuesthe Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/can/
The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objectsan editorial reading of the hazard wordsthe NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry
Infrastructure in the coupling matrixInfrastructure marked not assessedan Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut
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